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Remove the interim tag at halftime.

Euro AI ENS. Looks about the same as the EPS. Pretty cold look towards the end of the first week of of Dec. Snow? Not very likely outside of the western highlands, but a positive start to met winter if it verifies..

I have a c1795 house, replaced shingled roof with all metal in fall of 2021. and I'm having gutters installed all around. With the right (strong) debris filter included and stout anchors, the better installers can mitigate risk of sliding snow or ice even with metal roofing. It's not just about driplines, I've replaced half a dozen sills on windows, two doors needed new thresholds and trim, and multiple clapboards - all due to water damage from years of 'splash-up' water coming off the roof. In a strong downpour there's no way to avoid this damage without gutters catching the water up high. It WILL rot any wood that it contacts, and it doesn't take long. If you value your sills, including sill plates of your foundation, unless they're pressure treated or vinyl/plastic - get gutters. If you don't, your doors, trim, and sills will eventually fall prey to water splashing up from a dripline - even mulch or crushed stone won't eliminate it in a heavy downpour.

We do December snow about as well as DC does sports.

There's drought conditions up and down the east coast right now. I can't even recall the last time there was a major east coast storm. There's been a lack of landfalling GOM/EC hurricanes as well...which makes me think it's all interconnected. We need that southern stream to wake up.

No prob, TY.

Keep in mind that chatGTP is not the be all and end all of accuracy. it is only as good as the search terms, and what is inputted in to it. Too many variables at this point with it IMHO.

Better call the Reaper, lol. He's almost had to tend to me, over lack of snow in the Sierra already this season. TWICE. Reaper's gonna be exhausted this winter.

Unless you moved you absolutely used to live in NJ

All I needed to hear. It seems like every year people throw out that Winter, but it's nice to hear it from a more critical/educated voice.

I do like that we may get to phase 8, and low amp (which is usually the coldest version of 8) and that La Nina is much more likely to produce a +MVP, which means a deep Eastern trough.

Highly, highly unlikely imo.

Euro AI has something tropical near the end of the run too.

Last 70's until 12/24.

If you look at December snowfall for my analogs, it's good in NE and not so great in the mid Atlantic.

Trough east of Hawaii rule-that trough should push east but we have to be patient until probably second half of the month. Hopefully the SE ridge can be muted by then.

That is insanely good information, John.

Looks like nothing to track through 12/7, unless something surprises.

New thread for post 12/7 ;]

He is speaking from a mid Atlantic perspective. We are fine.

I agree that IF/WHEN there is a meaningful snow event in SNE, it will likely happen beyond day 10. I think that because there is broad agreement between the GEPS, GEFS, and EPS of no big threat before then. I don't think that because of anything visible in the longer-range. There is still some room to sneak in something wintry before then... e.g., the weak wave over the center of the US on the GFS at day 6 could evolve into something more... or numerous other very minor threats... but none are likely based on the current ensemble spreads.

Killington and Stowe have opened for skiing. May the snow soon come a few hundred miles south.

Well as we have said, I think anything meaningful is after the first week. But the interior could sneak something in prior.

That's an ad hominem. I've been posting about New England weather longer than you have. Where I live (which happens to be very geographically close to your home state), is irrelevant. If you disagree with something I wrote than say so.

I remember a few years ago we passed through phase 8 and it didn't get cold. I believe it was an el Niño, so the mentioned/proposed MVP likely wasn't favorable. I do believe ph 7 is generally normally BN here in winter. The article I linked above noted that phase 7 seemed to be unaffected by the state of the proposed MVP.