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80s in the east, 70s in the west?

SREfs are sick.

Would snow depth maps be a better use for this storm? Cut the accumulations on the 10:1 maps in half for this event? Or would that be over doing it? .

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Not speaking of the NBM specifically, but rather ratios in general- some of the modeled soundings show very impressive vertical lift(omega) through the DGZ with surface temps at 32 over this way at certain points in the storm- how high could the ratios be in that scenario? 15-1 maybe?

Ok ok ok let’s not go too far down this path. Back to weather.

I believe In a storm I felt was going to be a hit a week ago In a storm nobody thought was possible In a Nat 20 out of nowhere In models that are trending in the right direction for once In a chance for an HECS 00z is when we're going to reel it in. @bncho's riveting pbp Bring it home.

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Finally something trended our way for a change. The Feb 1 costal, the Feb 15 coastal all had plenty of potential and enough cold air to work with but it all just couldn't come together. When you roll the dice enough times you're bound to hit

Nah the GFS is too old for him.

Correct. Whatever hundredths of QPF we lose to a mix won't matter once the storm gets going.

There has been officially 30"+ in NJ. Boxing Day storm was one and so was January 1996. I think probably the most recent was January 2016. Had 31" in southeast Morris County.

All the SA victims agree.

Are you saying that the srefs are corrupt?

With him, all in isn’t very far. and neither is that 1” contour!

First call map. Most in the east, least in the west (and my backyard in the CT River Valley)

Highest recorded snowfall by me in Montville, NJ (Morris County, NJ) was about 27 inches in the March 2018 storm. Would love to experience that again. And a fun fact…there has never been 30 inches of snow ever officially recorded in NJ. 29.7 is the record in 1947. Do you think we will ever see 30+ inches, especially with today’s seemingly deeper strengthening storms? .

So he went from saying the euro showing nothing for 3 days was right and the gfs was wrong. But the euro is still right and the gfs is still.wrong but tosses in a 4-8"? Yeahhhhh.....

I highly recommend that Joe and Joe weather show on YouTube right about now

I don't think the rain at the front end is about a close approach. It's about a marginally cold airmas coupled with light precip.

It's a totally fair concern. I would add that mixing issues through the first part of the storm have showed up on a number of models. The surface temps are marginal and really don't crash until the coastal gets ramping, so the question becomes how much qpf do we lose on the front end to mix or an inability to efficiently accumulate on surfaces. All valid concerns. Bottom line, as you said, be prepared for anything. Isn't that what makes this all fun anyway? Cheers!

At the point that I'm full-time in Mattapoisett, it will never snow there again. I'll become Cory 2.0.

Jan 2016 dropped 33” at my house in Chester; I’m all in on this one. Let’s friggen get it! Edit: You never want to touch the money, but the trends on this, for all models over the past 24, I’m sold.

Only need gusts to at least 35 for 3 consecutive hours. There's a visibility parameter as well. That's why there can be blizzard conditions without a cloud in the sky.