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Pretty strong momentum build up in the tropics ongoing with the MJO wave. I saw Webb saying that he thinks this will help keep the -PNA at bay for a while longer.

And the guidance seems to want to put the restrengthening vortex over Canada for much of the next few weeks so we keep the cold close even with it strengthening. People need to realize how some of our best cold can happen this way.

Looks like some kind of convective mesolow. That’s like 50kt sustained.

Anyway, had a look at guidance and I can see some signs for optimism with this, but verbatim it looks just 2-3 F too warm to give much snow in the urban areas, could start off as snow and end as snow with sleet and rain during most of the event, 33-35 F zone would mix considerably. The optimism comes from the antecedent conditions getting a chill from the current snow event going through the GL region chilling the boundary layers of the arctic high following in ahead of your Tuesday storm. Also it does not look like very robust warm air advection is likely. If it would shift 50-100 miles south and the 540 dm thickness would stay south of JFK that would be ideal for accumulations of 5-8 inches with this but I think those are going to fall around POU into w CT.

4-8 still in play for many. Although 8 is a big stretch even if things go well. This is a quick event.

yup...and too much data created to "save people time" while degrading forecasting skill. Hey, why do I have to spend an hour or two assessing all the critical factors which influence snowfall totals when I can just pull up a 10:1 map, call it a forecast, then blame the model for being wrong when it doesn't pan out. Or significant tornado parameter map is showing widespread values of 4-5...let's go with tornado outbreak! its gross.

the end of the 18z euro was quite intriguing. our second threat is less than a week away already!

There ya go!

So some folks are tossing the Euro , EPS , AI , AIFS and NAM. And siding with GFS and Reggie . Interesting to say the least

Euro shows all of us at 4-6 on the 18z run…let’s hope das is right?

There is just too much data.

Forecast models haven't gotten worse, what has gotten worse over the last decade is forecasting skill and a large part of that is due to all of these ridiculous products which have supplemented the actual forecast process. So many convective events in the Plains hyped up because of supercell composite and significant tornado crap, snow maps, etc. It's all run to snow maps, QPF output, etc. which more often than not will not produce an accurate assessment and then when they don't verify, its cry and blame models rather than taking personal responsibility.

I would definitely lose it if I get skunked, and interior se MA has a nice event.

Barely a dusting here. Not even enough to cover the leftover leaves I didn’t pick up…. 6-8” here seems extremely unlikely unless we get some crazy 1”/hr rates late tonight. We are hours from the heavy bands from what I can see on the radar. I hope I’m wrong!

Hit that in a heartbeat.

I am.

Hmm wish we lived at 5H. Ye @das throw up qpf mslp temp surface level comparisons

NBC10 guy (forget his name but he is a closet snow weenie) going with basically nothing for Philly, up to 1" local burbs and 1-3" further north for Tuesday... 30F

There has never been a larger snowfall on Dec 2nd than 3.9" which happened in 1929 (NYC data). Another similar event was 3.8" 2nd-3rd 1903. The daily records for 1st to 3rd are 1.5" (1880), 3.9" (1929) and 3.0" (1903). A somewhat larger 8" snowfall happened on 4th of 1957 but early December does not have much going for it in the heavy snow department, Nov 30 1882 did better than all of those efforts (8" plus another inch on Dec 1). Maybe before records began in 1869 there was something bigger. I found several instances of severe cold in this part of the early winter that did not bring much snowfall, for example 1875 and 1926. (this is not meant to offer any sort of prediction, I am just looking at the guidance for this event for the first time now)

I mean, I’m waiting for it to pull the rug out, and it keeps doubling down

A 2 to 1 blend in favor of Euro would actually be one of the few ways we get widespread 4-8” amounts across a lot of SNE into CNE. Maybe we’ll actually catch a knife’s edge in our favor this time. Would be nice juju to start the season after the last several years.

if you live in the hilly countryside maybe, but i'm not anticipating more than 1-2" of slop at 150'

This isn't a real strong Stratosphere warming so far

Same here.. curious to see if the 18z EPS moves north at all