All Activity

Radar showing rain but all stations on LWX site under those returns are reporting fair skies. Is it raining anywhere or is my RadarScope just in ultra high sensitivity mode?

Looks like nice extended summer next week. Still no real heat coming, but highs probably in the low 80s here all next week.

Yeah if winter is going to be warm, might as well tee up a severe wx buffet line! The monthly charts are hideous for snow. SER might be overdone. Surface cold might do better than progged. However the precip charts (AN Mid South) scream cutters.. and severe! for Snow I prefer AN precip to my south (the rain). low Liquid content snow should be near normal north of the rain. Even BN qpf can work for snow in colder regimes. AN qpf is almost always rain. Should I move that last paragraph to winter topic? Nah, because I don't think it'll actually be that bad. North Pac is warm. Here I'm just jawboning severe.

In the end, the 500mb height anomalies in 72-73 were very similar to 23-24 when you adjust for the current climate.

LFG

Yes, I feel like since we moved to the Denver Metro in 2010, September and even October have shifted from real transition months to "warm, dry and dark" (the length of daylight is one thing that hasn't changed!) while April-May have just become more variable.

Locally it should be.

Early data for Aug showing an avg month. A warmer summer again driven by the warmth of June, and July. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.

Very dense fog this AM. Airport has had visibility around a quarter mile.

Upton has a dry weekend east of the city.

I think it's one of the more helpful teleconnectors in terms of individual storms, but I would take the -EPO for starters during a given season....getting a vortex over AK is the kiss of death for any season.

Looks hot the next two weeks through maybe Wed. Sept. 25 but mercifully humidity should be low to moderate. Only drawback with low RH is the drought will get worse in the Mid-South and western half of our region. Drought might even spread east. Not as hot east, but still dry. -GLAAM favors the warm pattern. While the ECMWF weekly is warm forever (what's new?) the CFS drops a Great Lakes trough at the end of the month, somewhat helped by a slight +PNA. Even with the GLAAM situation even a slightly +PNA can allow the said trough. CFS makes sense to get our region's temps back to normal. Euro weekly has a similar 500 mb pattern with a Midwest trough. It's west of the CFS trough axis; so, the Euro keeps the Southeast warm. Gonna have to disagree though. With normal heights, surface cool fronts should make it. Sure it'll be a day later than progged, but FROPA will happen. Bottom line: I have to go with the CFS milder late Sept. Hard spot: I figure drought could expand east more than CPC shows. We'll see. Little NW flow surprises like today might mitigate such a thing.

I agree with you but overall, the EC AI did not buy into the initial Sunday-Monday EC EPS closed low aloft scenario...admittedly as we mentioned... highly unusual pattern evolution. I am curious as to the multiple ensembles with sct showers Saturday (FOUS has LGA 90% RH at 60 hours 00z Sun) and it still looks like sct or widespread showers ahead of the seed moving short wave Sunday. Middle of next week might also have closed low feature in mid ATLC. For now will monitor what might transpire.

And the best late summer/early fall rolls on.

Agree...

Wow, nice shots! My favorite up that way is Jay Peak, but growing up and later in life I have been to Stowe more than several time. Always appreciate the photos!

+PNA is king. I think it's probably the best predictor of weather the I95 gets a snowy pattern compared to all other teleconnections.

Interesting detailed thread about how humid it was this summer across some of the states. I mean I could just tell even without anyone telling me how humid it was this year lol https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1966133621145612602

An overcast, drizzly morning. Blah wx today.

I think there can start to be some positive feedback, but it's defintely not the primary catalyst. Agreed.

Yes, but it will be interesting to see how much that is mitigated by the west PAC.

Was going to overseed this weekend. So sick of Stein making me water the lawn the past few months.

Remember a few years ago when NNE was drowning and we were practically dust in SNE? Weird how nature works