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NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO I'm going to miss Tequila Barry Send him my best

Latest Srefs snowfall fwiw. Seems reasonable for the Srefs.

I’m not saying that it will happen, but there is a way for the weekend clipper to end up north, even with the current clipper ending up well south.

I was wondering if there would be upgrades to warnings in the OV for tonight. Surprised there aren't more warnings. I could see a narrow but elongated strip of 6-8". Going to be some surprised peeps there in the morning.

With all the northern tier talk, thought I would drop a message. I’m in tioga county, and it has been a very nice start to winter up here, especially the last two days. It snowed all day yesterday, and have had some nice squalls coming through all day today(a very heavy one about an hour ago), loving the snow and cold so far to start winter! Hope the LSV cashes in before any warm up!

Hopefully it wasn't damaged

This is wildly off topic but good to hear. My wife and I talk about moving somewhere more rural when the kids are older, and getting out of the silver spring rat race. I don't know where you lived in Rockville, but how do you feel about all the driving you have to do in a rural area? The biggest thing we like about where we live is we can walk to schools with the kids, and walk to a lot of daily errands like the post office, grocery, library, health and personal appointments, etc. I really don't drive much. I think I would get over the driving because I grew up in a place like that, but my wife didn't. Anyway, off topic but I hope you get a lot of snow and it sounds like the trade-offs were worth it to GTFO from the DMV inner suburbs.

The last 5 years have been pretty bad so there’s some recency bias…the historic pattern of up and down Decembers looks like Mt Mansfield in comparison.

in the land of beggars can't be choosers ill take another 1in here in whitehall

We just lost our coating after that rain.

That model has been horrific lately…but whatever.

You made a wise choice to enhance the quality of your life.

So with all that said…December is as we all thought, sometimes they suck for snow, sometimes they are good. Kevin’s ideas on December are from a skewed view.

18z HRRR way looks better

I hope southern peeps can at least get inch or two. This seems like a coating for the Rt 2 folks.

Yeah very bad here too

March definitely has a higher standard deviation of snowfall than December. You can get some absolute monster totals in March but usually less likely to get those in December. (ORH is similar) They average out close but March a little snowier and also more likely to get a big dog in March. December probably has more “near average” months than March does.

Euro the last couple runs has been showing signs of the Subtropical ridge moving out west,maybe its seeing something the other models arent seeing right now,dunno.But right now it dont seem to have much if any support

Now model forecasting is not in this mechanical vein although models in general do not make predictions nor forecasts but rather examples. They “guide” us. Where they guide us to is unknown. Whether it’s mechanical or poor information distribution, all those paying for models should be up in arms and in stern contact with the providers

Sat snow seems more north on runs today but guessing that will shift south like today's clipper did

Ok you want someone to chime in so I will. First let me say, I believe our climate is becoming more mild. What you are claiming may become fact, I have no crystal ball to predict what will happen in the future. Maybe in 50 years we will have a climate like North Carolina, maybe not. If we do, out side this weather board, a lot of people will be happy about that. The thing that bothers me is sometimes people show stats that support their point but they may be misleading. I am not going to check all the cities you mention but I did check Syracuse NY. I was surprised you have your graph line starting at 150 inches because I don't think they ever averaged that high over an extended period. I did check what they averaged from 1951-2 thru 1981-2 seasons. For that 30 year period they averaged 109.6 inches of snow per year. Looking forward, they had a very snowy period from 2002-3 to 2010-11 seasons. Similar to us, the last 6 seasons have not been good at all by their standards. Last year they had 115 inches of snow which is their average since 1951.

No actually steady. Huge Marchs skew the data like the 40s in 1956 and 1993 but as a whole negligible

Not that I can recall.

Posted this discussion after the 12z runs in case anyone is interested. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ps6sgVtw0nA

Climate data on snowfall is absolutely horrible. The real reliable sites are COOPs like Jeff in Staffordville CT and Stacey in North Foster RI, also Revere Mass and Blue Hill