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When you say a miss do you mean no storm at all or a miss as in just an eastern NC event?

I trust that trough for Frederick like I trust a Wizards draft pick. Congrats eastern shore, though.

Seen early December storm trend north of me in the last 36hrs so ya. North trends keep it rollin. Just don’t go too far north lol

Don't let know it alls scare you off. I don't ever get the fuss over people in here complaining about lack of headlines or vice versa during events. Most of the public is too stupid to even take any headlines seriously. Someone is still gonna drive home or go about their business whether a snow squall headline was issued or not.

Cmc gives the coast some snow Sunday. Everything is coming west.

Guaranteed its a blizzard, But where?

runaway train of delusion fueled by digital blue

If you can time it right, a “kicker” shortwave can partially phase with the main shortwave where the main kind of swings around the kicker…they are both using the same longer wave trough. That’s kind of what happens on the GFS

Right now it’s a grazer. You need a little bit more than that going west.

Funny how 1 model run can lead to such a mood shift. Again, with how we’ve been burned, trying to remain skeptical. But, also hard not to get hopes up a little

GFS was amazing. Just goes to show we never know until til we get to at least 5 days out. I think this could be a case of the GFS showing this storm in the long range, losing it, and then coming back again once we get inside 5 days. Would love to see the Euro jump on board. Still cautious since this would be the GFS leading the way instead of the Euro.

Well, I agree but i can't do it lol

Its been essentially the identical snow map for years.

I am going to be more interested in hoe euro looks with the H5 evolution moreso than what it does at the sfc with SLP development. Just want to see some ticks in this regard (H5) towards the GFS. But the euro really isn't far off so it's very plausible.

Really REALLY rooting for a western adjustment. No hope for my locale..but I would love to take a plateau jaunt to a place that benefits from typical orographic lift. Monterey/Crossville...preferably no more east than that.

We're still 12-24 hours past the critical 4 day window for this system, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it trend even further at 18z and 00z. Sometimes we even see it trend (either way) inside 48 hours!

And this one is 100 hours, with important features showing up under 100. I hope this isnt a blip because we kinda need this one. And if it goes wrong, it is 100% @CAPE fault.

Very early but its a slight bit wester coming into Montana.

The other thread is a clown thread. Someone can maybe start a real one for this threat if it gets more support.

There's just no stopping you is there?

Why is there a thread? Delete that one. It’s Torch Tiger Tainted.

Its early but not sure I see a scenario as LIKELY at the moment where RDU is in trouble with this as far as ptype. I'd still be more worried about a miss than being too far W.

that would be nice for sure!

Some support among the GEFS members:

As the GFS was out to Sunday I was wondering if that energy diving down the Plains was going to end up screwing things up but ultimately it ended up feeding into our vort and helping to go boom.