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On the CMC ensembles you can see a pretty big spread at hr 36 but then a huge consolidation at hr 42. There's likely 2 lows over a broad area but eventually the western one gets captured and deepens.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 154 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 DEZ002-NJZ017>019-021-220800- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.W.0002.260222T1500Z-260223T2300Z/ /O.EXA.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.260222T1500Z-260223T2300Z/ Kent-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland- Including the cities of Moorestown, Glassboro, Dover, Cherry Hill, Mount Holly, Millville, and Camden 154 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations between 14 and 20 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...In Delaware, Kent County. In New Jersey, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, and Northwestern Burlington Counties. * WHEN...From 10 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

2:35 pm .

Your welcome board for the free money

Mitchell- Including the cities of Poplar and Spruce Pine 150 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT ABOVE 3500 FEET... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT BELOW 3500 FEET... * WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning above 3500 feet, heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 10 inches. For the Winter Weather Advisory below 3500 feet, snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 4 inches, with higher amounts along the Tennessee border. * WHERE...Mitchell County. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EST Monday Night.

Jacks gonna Jack Queens gonna Queen Me, Just sitting here smiling

Mother of God

Avery- Including the cities of Banner Elk, Ingalls, and Newland 150 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations mostly between 2 and 6 inches, with amounts up to 10 inches possible along the Tennessee border and in the high elevations. * WHERE...Avery County. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EST

when does it run agin?

2/21 18z Summary Total QPF NYC / Snow 10:1 NYC SREF: 2.1 / 19.6

Still a ton of lows west. Almost on the shore!

Swain- 150 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT ABOVE 3500 FEET... * WHAT...Snow expected above 3500 feet. Total snow accumulations mainly between 3 and 7 inches, with a foot or more possible on the high peaks of the Smokies. Up to an inch is possible in the valleys beneath the Smokies. * WHERE...The high elevations of Swain County. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EST Monday Night.

Madison-Yancey-Haywood- Including the cities of Cruso, Luck, Ramseytown, Waterville, Micaville, Swiss, Burnsville, Busick, Walnut, Cove Creek, Waynesville, Hot Springs, Allenstand, Marshall, Canton, Mars Hill, Faust, and Celo 150 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations mainly between 1 and 3 inches in the valleys. 4 to 7 inches with locally higher amounts are expected in the higher elevations, mainly along the Tennessee border. * WHERE...Haywood, Madison, and Yancey Counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EST Monday Night.

The odds for over 12 inches just shot up from 57% to 75% in seconds .

Just recently back from the island of Culebra, PR. Last PR island east of mainland PR, before one heads east toward St. John/USVI. We had sunny days 85/ mornings 75.

85.2 at 1:54 PM. Highest I saw yesterday 84.7.

That’s how I would do it. It’s not a 3” fluffy powder WWA type of event. It’s a 4”+ heavy dripping wet slush that will weigh down trees and limbs and power lines.

2/21 18z SREF Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24 Mean Snow 10:1

Nice!

Luckily, Currituck did cash in!!

We all about maps now. This is the time to show them awl .

@CoastalWx NBM 31 spot from Woonsocket to Quincy Mass

It strikes me as a WWA and then if we get some good CCB into the area we get bumped to a warning at some point tomorrow.

Usually agree, but with wind and the snow being heavy and wet... they might err on caution and go warning