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Thanks, Don. I want to make sure I’m following you. You’re saying that the NYC snow/ACE coefficient of determination is only 1.4%? That’s next to no correlation. I thought it might have been closer to 10%/weak. Fwiw: opinions about this? ACE 160+ (20 years): NYC snow (avg is 28.1”) 1878: 35.8” 1886: 31.9” 1893: 45.5” 1906: 53.2” 1926: 22.3” 1932: 27.0” 1933: 52.0” 1950: 9.3” 1961: 18.1” 1995: 75.6” 1996: 10.0” 1998: 12.7” 1999: 16.3” 2003: 42.6” 2004: 41.0” 2005: 40.0” 2010: 61.9” 2017: 40.9” 2020: 38.6” 2024: 12.9” So, 11 of 21 (52%) of 160+ ACE seasons were followed by 35”+ at NYC vs only 44 of 156 (28%) of all seasons having 35”+ suggesting a possible weak correlation of 160+ ACE to 35”+ NYC snow. However, 11 of those 20 160+ ACE years were since only 1995! And as @bluewavesuggested, CC is probably a more significant predictive factor on high snowfall seasons than 160+ ACE. There have been 6 50”+ seasons just since 1993-4 or 19% of the last 32 winters. Prior to 1993-4, there were only 12 of 124 seasons (10%) with 50”+ snow. @snowman19

First hot day in a while

Congrats Anthony

Drought guy could make a return pretty soon. Looks like after today, high pressure will dominate our pattern for the next 2 weeks with not many chances of rain. Dews in the 40s and 50s next week should be nice though.

Gonna be a chilly one tonight

When it comes to ACE and winter temperatures (using NYC), the long-term warming already overwhelms the ACE. Here's what it looks like (anomalies are against the Winter 1869-70 through 2024-25 mean temperature for purposes of standardization): Here's what happens when one detrends the data for the ongoing warming (takes out the warming signal):

I couldn't be more opposite than most of you, mahantango not included. This post, the one above it, and the fact that some trees are changing color here, is a bit depressing.

Great British pound. Now have a brew and a Jaffa cake while I track Erin

Yo mate, I logged on just to advise you that over time, your commentary, taken as a whole, visits damage to otherwise interesting observation threads. I'll refrain from speculation on what "GBP" means. Have a quiet day.

For NYC, the coefficient of determination for ACE and seasonal snowfall is just 0.014.

Today is the final post 8 pm sunset for MDT until next year. Hallelujah.

I don't grow crops. Grass mostly gone. Sunflowers dried up. Most of the plants are still ok but I need to start watering more regularly if it doesn't rain soon.

82 / 72 signifying a high in the 91 - 93 range here. What a stretch of weather and 3 or 4 weekends in a row after the other stretch.

So... your corn field is too dry lol. Mine is still too wet!

A few here have already called for the coldest winter in 50 years

No rain here in over two weeks. Everything's dried up/dead, except weeds. IDGAF.

you edited the post. Nm ok

Picked up 0.00" of rain here. 1.04" for the month. One last crack at it tomorrow night, and then it looks pretty dry until the end of the month.

OI RECKON EKIN WILL SCORE ANOTHER CAT 5 GOAL? got a mate watching her live in the love island villa he crashed while I’m pissed from last night in Pacha Disappointed she’s a category 3 but oh well steaming hot water ahead and low shear now that she’s fixing her eyewall after a trip to specsavers

Awesome, enjoy six months of November before Wiz starts his countdown to May 1 disappointment thread again.

NYC was also very low with snow in 1950-1. Regardless, one season, alone, doesn’t destroy the theory because these correlations are not only not even close to 100%, they’re weak. If I instead had claimed it was a 100% perfect correlation, then that idea could be destroyed by just one season.

This is the OP from twitter, not sure how he made it. https://x.com/NickKrasz_Wx/status/1956730795533480017?t=KwNUUdLNnK9aEhPWPNV-7A&s=19

And like any relationship, it can always be overwhelmed by other factors working against it. I think @bluewave may have had the right idea that as teleconnections change with cc, potential connections like this become less reliable.

WB 0Z EURO wave and 6Z wind forecast gusts for Th.