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Or the new Palisades Tahoe. Hey, they got mountains.

1.3….lets goooo

man, I'm leaning towards you being right. But we've been screwed so many times it's hard not to feel pessimistic when the idea is being floated out there. At this point, i'll take 3 inches and i'm good.

Sorry if it’s annoying to resurrect this thread but saw this and thought my fellow weather nerds would enjoy:

Down to 3. Could make a run at 0

That band appears to disappear as to extends to the south, but I can assume that it goes further south than the radar shows, as the snow has picked up a pretty good tick. Visibility is much lower the snow is very fine but coming down at a good clip, wind whipping it around at times makes it look even more impressive. This feels like this storm is going to really over produce. I reached about an inch total from just the frontal passage snow, and now it's picking up, heaviest it's been since it started.

Wow.

Wow. Down to 1.8 here

Thats all predicted to dry out once it passes the mountains.. Honestly just looking at the radar it looks like this whole storm will be a bust east of the NC Mountains and Charlotte Areas… looking at the radar currently you can clearly see how much moisture is out there but starting to die out when it passes this area because the coastal is talking away it’s energy and developing too far off the coast. In turn drying out everything west & nw of it… Maybe the coast gets back in some action late afternoon tomorrow once the storm up and starts to backfill…But looks like Raleigh up to Richmond is dried up… Only chance now would be if everything backfills later from the coastal but again that dosnt look promising at this point especially up this way..

Looks like the band is beginning to sink into West Knoxville. Oak Ridge looks to be getting nailed currently.

1am down to 17. I'll get very gusty winds that blow snow, and then it calms down for a while. It's mostly blown snow off the trees.

If that’s accurate, seems like it’s much closer to the coast than modeled?

It wasn’t far off from a couple systems swinging by, though. For whatever that’s worth. On another note, the regular Euro continues to be pretty unenthusiastic about any potential system next week

Tuesday Night A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Current point click for next week

Looks like primary threat zone shifted east a bit and now looks to center comfortably in Porter County or perhaps even on the line between Porter & LaPorte. Maybe even a bit questionable the extent of plume organization overnight, but of course, even a couple hours of LE can add up.

Radar showing returns in southern Va not on any models -interesting

Decent band moving over Greeneville. Rates have increased in the last 15 mins.

Correct per my last post‼️

I can't tell which way it's going but the band that sat over me and dumped on me looks like it's made it's way down to Oak Ridge and Clinton. If it's sinking south, it should over take Knoxville soon.

Already down to -3.1° at 1:00 AM‼️

That’s the good ‘ol GFS for ya‼️

I can’t take this all winter. It’s too stressful lol

So I’ve done some digging into the models here recently and I don’t think im entirely buying the dry air thing. Our DGZ is saturated, the 600-850mb layer is saturated, we really are only dry from the 925mb layer down. And that is sitting at about 50-60%RH. I don’t think that will be too hard to overcome and we can wetbulb down to saturated at the ground. Could it eat into our totals for an hour? Sure. Is it going to be as bad as the models think? I don’t think so. We are already seeing snow falling that the models Didnt pick up on. Yes we are between the two areas of greatest forcing but i think the surface low will overpreform and push that out of the way. I just can’t imagine a 970mb low having that small of a precip shield with a negatively tilted 500mb upper low. Im not a met, but I have tracked storms my whole life, so if I’ve missed something please correct me. But thats my two cents.

This has to be one of the longest cold snaps in the last 20 years. while it may not be the coldest we ever had its pretty long lived. I havent seen snow stick around and hardly melt for a week like this last storm in a long time.

Flakes here too. Off to get some sleep