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Gfs really on it’s own

For reference, if you want to see what I’m talking about when I say this isn’t set in stone, take a gander at the 500mb vort chart between the 00z UKMET at hour 87 and 12z UKMET at hour 75 lol

LWX still up in the air at 1029... (snip) KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure tracking nearby brings a slight winter storm threat to the forecast area this weekend, followed by colder than normal temperatures early next week. A high energy but low predictability pattern looms for late this weekend. The pattern is forecast to be very amplified but in flux as a deep upper-level low digs out of the Gulf of Alaska inducing a downstream ridge-building event over the western U.S. This pattern amplification in the vicinity of western North America comes with low predictability due to data sparse regions over the North Pacific. Meanwhile, a pair of downstream upper lows interact/merge over Maritime Canada, with inherent low predictability with two cutoff lows interacting. If the upstream ridge-building event takes place a bit further west near 120 W longitude on Saturday, downstream trough amplification would be favorable for phasing over the mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys Saturday night. A subsequent low track hugging the coast would become more likely in this scenario, aided by downstream blocking and a potential source of cold air given the upper lows over Maritime Canada and surface high pressure attempting to ridge into northern New England. There is an appearance of an inverted trough signature in a subset of model guidance over the last couple cycles, given interaction between a more amplified northern stream wave and a bit more distant offshore southern stream low. This could factor into precipitation amounts and placement. The 00Z ensemble suites (European, GFS, Canadian, Euro AIFS) all now have at least some snow across the area Sunday into Sunday night. This continues the trend toward higher QPF/snow amounts in the last 3-4 model cycles. Still, the spread remains quite large with many ensemble members indicating little to no snow, while others do show significantly higher amounts. There are several variables at play here that likely won`t be resolved with much more clarity for another day or two. This will determine the difference between a couple of strung out waves passing through with little fanfare, a modestly impactful period of snow showers, and a more significant wintry precip event. Of note, the higher sun angle later in the season becomes a factor especially for lower elevations if precip occurs during the day. Cold air will also filtering into the region as the storm in question approaches, rather than being locked-in beforehand, which offers another layer of uncertainty in p-type. Regardless of exactly how the details of the Sunday-Monday system play out, another shot of below normal temperatures is favored for early next week. Currently, high temperatures in the 40s (30s in the mountains) with lows in the 20s (teens in the mountains) are forecast through Tuesday night, with some midweek moderation after. (snip)

CMC and uk are jv models though

She’s batshit crazy and the other models all see it.

Yeah, that ain’t gonna do it. If the Euro comes in flat again I think the fat lady starts warming up.

What ?

Trace

Yeah UKMET wasn’t as flat as 00z but it is still garbage and nothing like the GFS unfortunately. Ptype problems

This reminds me of a storm in Feb 2013. Not the huge blizzard, it was after that. The meat of the storm was offshore, but got about half a foot because we got clipped by a few outer bands. It was a coastal scraper setup like this one.

UKMET

He's still around. Annoying as ever on an Eagles MB I frequent.

Long lasting back side i say 6.75 for you

Love to meet you. Seriously. Stop in

chasing another bust since 1/25....bring on spring.

House of Musical Traditions…? TP Bev Co is underrated - we live half a mile down the road

If you want to know. Go read my description of a LES event. That's here on Monday lol

5 hours until Ji tells us 18z GFS lost 30 inches

Ok, the CMC and UKmet lends credence to what we all know: GFS is in la la land

Actually maybe the UKMET is not so bad. It’s no GFS though. Don’t think temps are gonna be friendly either.

GFS be like:

More amped than 0z at the very least? But yeah, closer to a Bermuda Brawler than the GFS solution

It would be an epic DC fail inside 69 hrs

Dear Euro, Lately, you have not been there for us. When we needed you most, you abandoned us, never providing in our time of need. All we've had is the GFS, which is a blasphemous model. But you can change that today, our precious King. We've never needed you more than now. All you need to do is provide a helping hand, a little hope for this weekend. All that is needed is a 75 mile shift west, and we will praise and rejoice you. We hope you hear our prayers. - The Mid-Atlantic Forum