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GFS says we pour and blow

I mean we'll have to see how quickly occlusion would occur...GFS is on the slower side with it but that's a pretty good rain maker setup and would probably be a stripe of some impressive totals somewhere.

Safe to say the GFS has the weekend storm haha

If that evolution plays out it will certainly put a dent in the rainfall deficits

12z RGEM looks pretty good too. Hopefully we're still on track for a decent soaking.

Katahdin has been whitened above tree line and maybe the lower mts also, but here in the foothills only in 1999 did I see a trace this early. Average 1st trace is 10/28, 1st measurable 11/10 and 1st 1"+ 11/21. More recently, yesterday's high of 82 is the warmest in our 28 Octobers, 2° above the previous record set on 10/9/2011. That 82 is 22° AN.

12z ICON bring a soaking 1.5" - 2.5" of rainfall to just about the entire subforum starting late in the weekend.

Another beauty out there today..77f and just blissful. Reminds me of mid April minus some daylight. Would love to keep this going for at least a month but it’ll return when we least expect it.

Wait a minute, you’re referring to a potential frost/freeze on October 10th as “unseasonably early” when it’s only a handful of days early for many of these locations?

Getting major “prepare for disappointment” vibes for tonight based on newest guidance

The models have been waffling all over the place, some had rain to our south, then over us, then north, etc.

GFS for tonight/tomorrow

70s in January then?

The 12z HRRR pops a low on the front and nails the tristate area with rain Wednesday morning.

Gorgeous morning out here. 74 degrees with a modest breeze. Watching planes on approach to Newark from backyard. Wish the wind had cooperated last night with the fulloon. Couldn't keep camera on tripod still.

78 / 62

I agree -thats been the trend the last few systems - plus these frontal systems are moving fast and trying to pinpoint who will get how much is like throwing paint at a wall.....as for the coastal storm early next week placement and strength of the HP to the north is critical

haha northern MN was nearly as warm! It was just 4 days but Im glad its over!

I don’t have the link but I saw a post yesterday showing year over year trends in snowpack over Siberia and northern Canada. It appears it’s a bit better than normal. I put little stock in enso and upper atmospheric patterns until we get closer to climo but that’s one early indicator I’ve always believed in. We’ve struggled the past few years with cold snaps modifying too much before they make it this far. Every little bit of sea ice and snowpack in the great north will help.

said plenty of people. many people are ready for Fall and did not enjoy that weather.

Most sites in VT are under 50% already

Like someone else said...one of the funniest most cartoon ways to win a game we've ever seen, hahaha And then you have that Titans game on Sunday with the pick fumble that resulted in the game winning TD, lol

Got a somewhat surprising .23 last night

I'm still skeptical of much in NNJ - the NAM phases things out from west to east, when we know in fact the cutoffs can be quite sharp.