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I had to go to Lowes due to a broken toilet handle. There was a huge line of folks inside waiting for a generator shipment to come in. Poor souls. I did see some flurries and light sleet while out. That was about it.

Yeah thanks

Let’s go friends! What’s in everyone’s glass for happy hour? Let’s kick off the storm right! Other Half makes some of the best IPAs / DIPAs in the DMV.

Can really see the midlevel warmth on the 4:04PM Eastern Skew-T RAP imagery https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1#

Usual downsloping suspects doing well:

Looks like Pittston, with view across the Kennebec to Mt. Tom (great sledding hill) on the Gardiner estate. The castle would be just to the left of the pic.

Their webcams confirm light snow has commenced down there.

I'm tempted to ask but...maybe I shouldn't!!!

Best case. Would have a lot of happy folks in here. .

The extreme cold warning in New Orleans is pretty impressive. ...EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 9 above expected. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. * WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these temperatures. An extended period of freezing temperatures could cause ruptured water pipes.

Holston and others. Check out the KOHX Reflect and share your thoughts? Watch the Sumerset area. .

I've mostly accepted the transition time. It's the thump QPF I was worried about. Feel a little better about this after your reply.

Oh just for full disclosure since I'm all about owning up to bad forecasts, my forecast earlier this week sucked (overnight snow the day before the evening squalls and snow bands that did work out). That was a different setup, but the dry air winning out there made me a little gunshy to feel confident the light snow would start much earlier. I did have a hunch something like this might play out, but in the 00z and 06z TAFs last night, didn't have flurries until 4pm at DPA and 5pm at ORD, MDW, GYY. Still leaned earlier than explicit guidance though based on how the soundings looked, and had a prob30 (30% prob) group starting with the flurries onset before the 1-2SM stuff in the evening. Someone should also tell many previous runs of the GFS that it is indeed snowing across much of northern IL today. Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

Interesting but I would think the ocean plays a major role in that? anyone?

Winters for the last 20 years in Central PA have by and large been horrendous. I’m glad that most of that region should do well tomorrow but the long term average for State College, Altoona, Williamsport etc is over 40” snow per winter. They’ve been able to manage that in their few high end winters in the last 20 years but by and large way below that. Way too many SWFE’s that turn into sleetfests, cutters or Miller Bs that develop too late, much fewer Miller A coastal huggers like 3/1993 or storms that would redevelop offshore in time-now these are good I-90 snowmakers not I-80. It started right when I went to school there and never really improved. So I’d say there’s definitely some long term shift that’s screwed them over and not some short term correction that will easily reverse.

LOL!!! Well hell, that's about all that was left for TP at most supermarkets the past couple of days!!! Duct tape your s**t!!!

Temp down to 10.9F

16 degrees in Harrisonburg

In Richmond, at convention center finishing off a dance competition for my daughter. A few faint snowflakes have begun to fall. It’s 21. Hope to be back in Stafford before 8/9 PM tonight.

Many on here know better than NWS. Trust them, they've seen it before

Yea but he has been really steady. Have to give him props.

Impossible! Shut your mouth!!

Fyi, a nws met just said that observations down south are snow where sleet/ freezing rain was forecast. Still he says it's unknown if that will translate to good news up here for us.

If it tells you anything I am already looking to next weekends system... if it holds. lol We are barely past 4" since my morning report. Looking at how the short range data is trending drier, my final forecast is 7" total for Fayetteville. If we are lucky. What a joke compared to 24 hours ago.

Still at 29 here just northwest of downtown Knox.