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July 17-30 here was 3.4° BN. I'm guessing that most of New England was normal or BN during those 2 weeks.

MEI is great for what it's designed to do...assess how well coupled ENSO is with the tropical atmosphere: The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) is the time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W). I'm not sure why it should be viewed as a quality assessment outside of that bounded area of the tropical Pacific....it's not going to be able to detect how well the tropics are in sync with the mid latitudes. The RONI is probably better equipped for that, but ultimately I think we just need to dig in an assess for ourselves like Chris has been doing. I don't care is the MEI is 5.3, there is still obviously a prism between the tropics and mid latitudes and no, that isn't necessarily a "good" thing for winter.

An earlier post said back BN. It was never there

0.00” here overnight and yesterday. First miss in a long time

Not liking seeing mid 90s and humidity return next week

Holy humidity, Batman

We may get a touch BN late next week.

When you focus on periods just before and just after station changes, the changes are have very strong statistical significance. Below is an example for Coatesville, using the monthly difference between Coatesville and West Chester. On average, Coatesville was 2.5F cooler relative to West Chester in 1949-50 vs 1944-45, before the 1946 move. The stats show that the move-related change was highly significant statistically.

How can it go back below normal if it was never there in the first place ?

None of us are perfect...best any forecaster can do is try to keep an open mind, be willing to admit error and look to improve. My outlooks got a lot better the moment I stopped perceiving alternative view points as a threat and tried incorporating them....truth is that every individual has something to offer.

64 here for low. None of the 50s nonsense.

My mistake...I guess I spoke out of turn and should have double-checked. Thanks. I'm going to stick with that source, though in an effort to be homogeneous.

Got 0.25, now 2.5 for the month. A great start after months in a row of less than 1" total in spring to early summer. Hope the next few months are well above normal rainfall.

Just over 0.2” so far

Meanwhile on this side of the planet...

56.6° Gonna need that about 10F higher

We dodged storms like a ninja yesterday too but picked up .13 for a total of .50 since midnight.

Here is a graphic I hope illustrates that the goal of homogenization is not to create a new absolute temperature series for a given location, but to extract change over time information. With Coatesville 1 SW, because it moved to progressively cooler locations (break points finds these shifts), it is necessary to correct for those moves. Convention is to apply the corrections from most recent raw data backwards, but it is just as valid to apply them from oldest forward. Convention results in a repaired series that was always in its final location, and applying corrections from oldest forward results in a station that never left its first location.

That was me who was dismissing the MEI awhile ago and you still don’t see me posting about it. Just not a fan of it. It’s equally weighting all variables, only uses one dataset (JRA-55), and like ensonerd mentioned it’s limited to the first EOF. I felt like it made the 2023-24 event weaker than it was even compared to the RONI, thanks to the rare -PMM that went with it.

Second the pouring ob.

Not a drop