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El Nino and -PDO sounds like a recipe for a warm active southern stream and lots of severe weather! My sabre rattling aside that '23-24 year was a bit unusual. Usually the PDO gets in line with Nino. You'd think a super nino would drive the bus. Still several months for it to resolve. Then yea see what the QBO is trending in fall. As I've written before I care a lot more about the slope/trend than the value.

I use Benjamin Moore Woodluxe. I’ve been in paint business for 43 years . And use all Benjamin Moore paints and stains. Most of my work is high end clients in the Potomac and Bethesda neighborhoods. Hope that helps.

Just got 5 drops

Sneaky warm day here-up to 88.

A cluster of thunderstorms has moved E into the SAV area. Rain started here just after 3PM.

One of the better recent seasons so far for sea ice retention on the Pacific side of the Arctic. So the weaker dipole pattern since 2013 with lower pressure north of Alaska continues. This major circulation reversal since 2007-2012 is the main reason that the September 2012 low extent hasn’t been surpassed for 14 years now. Rick Thoman @alaskawx.bsky.social Follow Sea ice in the Chukchi Sea remains well above the 1991-2020 and amazingly is the highest for the this point in the season since 1994 in NSIDC data. For the first time this year, there's an open water path to Utqiaġvik. Ice extent in the Beaufort Sea is the highest since 2006. #akwx #Arctic #SeaIce ALT 1:47 PM · Jul 26, 2026

What transparent finish(no hiding of the grain and with a tint that matches the house)can I put on my deck that will look good for more than one season? I have tried several and it is never worth the effort esp being in the woods. Nature always wins. One of the cheaper ones I have tried that lasted as long as Cabot and others that cost twice as much is Flood brand. Everything holds up much longer on the railings but on the deck itself its a year or 2 at most before it goes to crap.

It's been pretty dark in my part of Queens for the last couple hours with the showers approaching from the north. Though I've dodged that shower over Queens, as it's too far west of me. I see nothing but blue skies to the north so it should clear out soon. Not sure if that next area of storms around Poughkeepsie will make it down into the city. Bit surprising overall for a day that was supposed to be mostly sunny.

Surprised INS didn’t post the CFS

No one takes it seriously though, because it's used so often. It's a good warning for a thunderstorm coming, I guess, which most people react to.

Look at the context here though - the climate change discussion thread. If this were a "weather events" thread - I would agree that there's no implication of a tie-in between the big France wildfire spike, and I wouldn't have made my point about having to look at the bigger picture. But since this is in fact a climate change discussion thread, and since there are lots of assertions out there that CC causes increase in wildfire activity - it seems reasonable that there's an assertion of implied tie-in with that set of stats that was posted; vis a vis France's big spike in wildfires being due to CC. My point then of course being that no - it's not due to CC (the context of the thread), it's due to a localized weather event (and possibly other factors such as bad fire control management).

Euro wet

sad to say not everyone could see the charts through the haze

Very gentle shower earlier dropped .10 of bore

Folks were warned . Several weeks ago . Even some Mets said no .We said yes

next week looking muggy .. 12z euro is legit 70+ dews all of next week

It’s sort of settled into a physics model vs ai model split now? Physics models slow it down and end up rainier. AI keeps it moving.

Well, given the SPC issues the watch, that means that specific parameters are expected to be in place for severe storms to develop that could produce a tornado. Reading the NWS AFDs they almost always mention SPC and repeat what they have discussed about the risk(s). So once a storm has formed in a watch area and shows signs(radar indicated) that it could produce a tornado, should they just ignore it because we are in the east and some imaginary quota has been reached? lol this is so dumb.

Some spotty isolated showers/storms are building.

Start just before 5pm EDT: Rather than clog the other threads I wanted to post my full storm chase recap in a separate thread. It all began on the afternoon of July 28th near Sandy Ridge, NC (northeastern Stokes County near the VA line. A supercell organized south of Floyd, VA and began moving southeastward in northwesterly flow. This means the business end of the storm was on the northwest side of it as opposed to the usual southwest. None the less it had a classic structure when we first intercepted it. If it was more LP and there were less low-level clouds a barber pole with bell shaped base would have likely been fully visible. You can infer it was there from the shot below along with a well developed wall cloud: We were able to stay with this storm for over three hours with good southeasterly routes available. It was at this first location in Sandy Ridge where I was nearly hit by an intense CG strike (definitely within yards). The next shot shows the wall cloud with a strike to the right of it (video cap): The next stop occurred some 20 minutes later in Ayersville, NC but we could not stay long to keep up. At this stage the storm entered a re-organizing phase. After that was Madison, NC where we got a good look at the meso: After that the next stop was around 1 hour into the adventure southwest of Reidsville. I got video of the meso but have yet to post it. In terms of stills I got the wall cloud here: This is when we made a wrong turn and ended up taking the brunt of the RFD which rained down tons of tree debris. Whole trees came down as well. We got back on the storm in Alamance County near Sedalia and Graham. This is where the storm structure really ramped up again with a clear slot due to the RFD wrapping in and meeting up with a strong inflow tail. The rising motion into the storm was violent and very Plains like and there were renewed lightning barrages. At this point the storm was tornado warned. Here are a series of images I got from over a Waffle House parking lot just south of I-40 off 87 in what is technically Graham. The next stop was between Graham and Saxapahaw at the intersection of Swepsonville-Saxapahaw Rd and Crawford Rd. This is where I caught a funnel cloud for the first time on this storm. This was confirmed by video evidence from another chaser as I was focused on stills. It also matches up to where the meso is and the overall storm structure. At this point we are 2.5 hours in just after 7:30pm. Images from that stop here: After this I was thinking of breaking off and headed home until the rotation strengthened again between Saxapahaw and Carrboro (Oaks to White Cross) as the 3 hour point approached on this storm (an rare feat in NC!). The storm did not disappoint and made an attempt at producing once more. I cannot draw any conclusion if it touched the ground or if it was condensation of the trees rising up but none the less for now I will call it a funnel cloud seen here along with the overall storm structure: I tried to keep up with it a bit more into Carrboro and did so but another violent lightning barrage occurred there and the storm was being overtaken by upscale growth which merged everything into a big rain-filled cluster. It was also getting dark so I headed back to Raleigh. All in all this was one of the most incredible chase experiences I have had and I will not forget it. Bonus shots below:

I got hit with like 6 of them yesterday. I think I wound up with .28"

81.4°, sunny, and very safe to close the month