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Why such a dick ? Wow

Another casual 1.3” overnight. 12.9” for August now

I'm encouraged given the favorable things in place. Then again - we have been burned many times by so many different failure methods. Will be curious to see what guidance looks like as we go forward in time and how the AI/ML guidance trends.

Yesterday evening, this northwest perimeter flow developed a strong storm in southwest Augusta. A couple locations received close to 2 inches of rain while a few miles away, little more than sprinkles.

Interesting...didn't know that. Confirms what I had already suspected about this December. Maybe that is why El Nino Decembers are usually warm....not so much about El Nino itself, but some of the intervals of -SOI that goes along with it...though, I guess it really doesn't matter.

More evidence that the ridge is operating independently of ENSO as we have seen this summer regardless of ONI, RONI, MEI, and SOI. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz4647 Marine heatwaves in the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) have become increasingly frequent and persistent, yet the mechanisms enabling their multiseasonal duration remain poorly understood. Through observational analyses and climate model experiments, we demonstrate that NWP marine heatwaves are primarily driven by a quasistationary wavenumber 5 circumglobal wave (CGW) pattern that operates independently of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The CGW modulates surface heat fluxes during summer, triggering a self-reinforcing feedback loop where NWP warming intensifies the CGW pattern, amplifying and prolonging heatwaves across extended warm seasons. Additionally, CGW-driven summer warming in the northern North Atlantic persists into winter through oceanic thermal inertia, exciting a great-circle wave pattern that propagates back to the NWP, sustaining heatwaves through cold seasons. This interplay between atmospheric waves and trans-basin interactions enables multiyear marine heatwave events. Analysis of observational data and climate model simulations reveals a strengthening CGW influence in recent decades, indicating more frequent and prolonged NWP marine heatwaves under ongoing global warming.

Yes

Picked up 0.19" of rain this morning. A station 3 miles to my south received 0.86". Up to 8.25" for the month. Maybe we can reach July's total before this day is over. Only need another 0.15". Looking forward to amazing dew points this weekend especially after this hot and sweaty week ahead.

Eat shit

Did you have thunder?

beach weather for hearty New Englanders

That line blew up at I-84 as it moved east; got woken up to FL like downpours around 10.

No storms unfortunately

Congrats you to Dendy. Couple inches of boring rain

Did a downpour poo overhead? When I went to bed at 9, there was a shower line showing to the NW

If you look at ensembles it’s AN thru mid month especially this week and then after the 10th

0.08” in Sunday evening’s 15-20 min pop-up Columbia shower. 4.22” for August thru 8/30.

Occurring during such a strong developing El Niño made this even more extreme relative to what has occurred in the past.

for the mid west, yes but we live in New England

JFK was able to finish this summer with the 4th highest number of 95°+days similar to some of the big 90° summers you mentioned. But stronger sea breezes overall lead to a lower total of 90°+ days than those years. So the higher end heat early on boosted JFK into the top 10 of warmest summers. While the developing super El Nino summer of 2015 was also warm for average temperatures at JFK, it didn’t have the major 95°+ and 100°+ heat this summer had. So the magnitude of the heat this summer was a first for such a high end El Niño event. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug 95°+ days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 10 0 2 1963 8 0 3 2002 7 0 - 1999 7 0 4 2026 6 2 - 2013 6 0 - 1949 6 0 5 2012 5 0 - 1983 5 0 - 1966 5 0 - 1955 5 0 6 2025 4 0 - 2022 4 0 - 2006 4 0 - 1993 4 0 - 1991 4 0 - 1974 4 0 - 1968 4 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Warmest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 77.1 0 2 2016 76.5 0 3 2022 76.1 0 4 2015 76.0 0 5 2024 75.8 0 - 2011 75.8 0 6 2020 75.7 0 7 1983 75.6 0 8 2026 75.4 2 - 1984 75.4 0 9 2012 75.3 0 - 1991 75.3 0 10 2025 75.2 0 - 1971 75.2 0 - 1949 75.2 0 All-time Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 104.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 2 103.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 3 102.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 102.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 102.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 102.0 2011-07-23 through 2011-07-23 - 102.0 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05 - 102.0 1963-07-01 through 1963-07-01 4 101.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 101.0 2010-07-04 through 2010-07-04 - 101.0 1993-07-09 through 1993-07-09 - 101.0 1966-07-04 through 1966-07-04 - 101.0 1966-07-02 through 1966-07-02 - 101.0 1957-07-22 through 1957-07-22 - 101.0 1948-08-27 through 1948-08-27 5 100.0 2026-07-04 through 2026-07-04 - 100.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 100.0 2013-07-18 through 2013-07-18 - 100.0 2010-07-07 through 2010-07-07 - 100.0 1993-07-10 through 1993-07-10 - 100.0 1983-08-20 through 1983-08-20 - 100.0 1983-07-16 through 1983-07-16 - 100.0 1972-07-23 through 1972-07-23 - 100.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26

Of course it’s possible. I’d put odds at ~25% as of now. Based on the fact that none are shown on current models, this being progged to be the strongest Nino on record, and the modern analog 1997, which had its last TC become a H on Sept 4th, it’s a realistic possibility.

Looks like Tblizz got steined again. He has to calm down.

BS, its well known that glaciers around the world are shrinking rapidly due to climate change. The Himalayas are no exception. The increasing local risk from glacier melting was described as a "crisis" earlier this year: https://www.icimod.org/press-releases/hindu-kush-himalaya-glaciers-losing-ice-at-double-the-rate-since-2000-new-icimod-report-confirm/ Kathmandu, 18 March 2026 – Glaciers across the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) are melting at an accelerating rate, with ice loss rates doubling since the year 2000, according to two new landmark reports that will be released on 21 March 2026 by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) to mark World Day for Glaciers. The reports, Changing Dynamics of Glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya Region from 1990 to 2020 and HKH Glacier Outlook 2026: Insights from 50 Years of Himalayan Glacier Monitoring, provide the most comprehensive evidence yet of glacier change in the region. They reveal a total loss of up to 27 metres of ice thickness since 1975, sounding an alarm for the nearly two billion people downstream who depend on meltwater from the ‘Water Towers of Asia’. “This isn’t a distant problem; it’s a crisis unfolding in real-time, with new disasters every summer and monsoon. The fact that ice loss rates have doubled this century should shock us all into action,” said Pema Gyamtsho, Director General of ICIMOD. “The Hindu Kush Himalaya is at a crossroads. The rapidly escalating impacts we’re seeing from water uncertainty to catastrophic floods underscore that we are in a critical decade for the cryosphere. We must scale up monitoring and invest in adaptation now. These aren’t blind spots becoming surprises anymore; they are our new reality.”