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@Stormchaserchuck1I would consider 2008 a bit before tossing cool ENSO analogs....that year went on to be a late blooming, bonafide, albeit modest La Niña despite the warm subsurface encroachment from the west....even 1967 got down to -0.7 ONI, though it just missed official designation. Now, I don't think we cool quite as much as 2008 because the trades and SOI are a bit less impressive, but the subsurface is very similar, so I would extrapolate out a bit less development than that year. Keep in mind region 3.4 goes all the way over to 120W, so the warmth has a bit to go and you still have to factor a lag.

heh too much shear. Doesn't matter where it is. NHC indicated a 'few days' of it. maybe we wait -

I think it’s more of a if this drifts more westerly and doesn’t gain latitude type deal. If that happens it could be a biggun.

0.25" overnight. Unexpected. Welcomed.

I'm a weird bird in that I love the holidays, I've even come to love Halloween since having a child and have always loved fall/winter (even though I am starting to become a bit of a warminista) but hate the darkness. If we could have 20 hours of sunshine and a dry cold from November 1 - March 15, I'd consider that a jackpot.

webb and others have said that the current subsurface/sst profile is similar to last year Ninas which transitioned into ninos the next year

A couple short rounds of heavy rain.....radar suggests there might be another. Nothing to write home about.

Very cool, wet wx last couple days. Not much precip tho, just scattered shwrs here in town. 0.61" for the month so far (avg 3.03"). Nice band of LER across the Bayfield peninsula this morning. Won't be long, and I'll be updating snow totals in my sig.

Meh... we'll see. Shear stress has to diminish, tho. If it doesn't, I 100% disagree.

Apparently you're not putting much value in NHC's recommendations this morning? ...it's okay. With all the MAGAt parasites succeeding in tunneling out American institutions, there's probably just a skeleton crew of stressed out coffee constipate red-eyed summary efforts coming from NCH latels ... But, suppose for a minute there's substantive value when they tell us that moderate westerly shear will impact the TC for the next few days. That would be inconsistent with your bold comment above. Just sayn'

Agree. Some of those Hurr models showing it.

October 2025 has a global mean temperature of 15.29°C through October 20th (ERA-5). That ranks as the third warmest October 1-20 period on record. October 2025 remains on track to finish as the third warmest October on record (likely with a monthly mean temperature of 15.00°C or above). To miss, the October 21-31 period would need to see sustained cool readings that last occurred in 2013. That is improbable with today's greater greenhouse gas forcing.

Andy isn’t prone to hyperbole—and it’s not hyperbolic if it’s right. The environment for Melissa increasingly looks as high end as you can get in any part of the Atlantic at any time of year. Without the earlier NE turn across Hispaniola, which the ensembles are starting to abandon, this not only gets to an anomalously warm and deep pool of OHC, it likely sits under a substantial ULAC with an anomalous jet streak to the north that will further aid ventilation. Melissa is meandering into a powder keg with a blowtorch.

I think one thing we can say for certain is that any cool ENSO is going to maintain an eastern bias with that subsurface.

Conversation on ensembles and rainfall brings me to this... Our reservoir levels, I think, are within tolerance, considering the drier 12 months period of I guess roughly 5-10" below normal. Yet NYC reservoir only 6% below normal. The ET and water balance maps are added here to show at least in my mind, where all the parameters are met for objective analysis (including solar radiation)... much less concern, in my mind, for drought up here. Note the positive balance up here vs the drought in TEX. Spring summer are critical here... spring for the typical prescribed burn wildfires in s NJ, and then growing season for farmers. Arguments for rainfall can be made for fall color as well as other concerns (bugs etc) Anyway... if we go another 12 months significantly below normal rainfall...especially next spring-summer, then my concerns are heightened.

Another disaster will be the GFS op performance with this.

I can work with that!

Don't call it 'hyperbolic' then, call it 'childish and drama jerking' ...meh, semantics -

Chuck, 2008 is also pretty similar in the subsurface.....

I mean, I really do understand. And I sympathize especially with people that suffer from seasonal depression. For me, the onset of longer nights symbolizes the beginning of the holidays and our "snow season." Also helps me transition from lightweight athletic shorts to something more appropriate for the season...lightweight athletic shorts. (with a light hoodie)

Andy Hazelton @AndyHazelton · 55m If #Melissa does end up turning west over the Caribbean south of Jamaica (like the HAFS/HMON/Euro forecasts show), I don't think it's hyperbolic to say we will likely get a Category 5, and quite possibly one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic. -Deep, warm

This is a patently misleading piece. While it correctly observes that “climate-related deaths… have declined by 98%,” it omits the critical context that renders the statistic meaningful. These deaths have not fallen because the climate has become more stable or benign. They have fallen because humanity has vastly improved its capacity to anticipate and withstand disasters through through advances in forecasting, infrastructure, public health, and global wealth. Without these four variables, the claim would be indefensible. The article also misrepresents the scientific community by alleging that climate scientists “suppress” inconvenient facts. In reality, the scientific literature is filled with discussions of uncertainties, feedbacks, and trade-offs. Vigorous internal debate is a defining feature of climate science, not evidence of censorship. What is not in dispute is that the primary driver of ongoing climate change is anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. That conclusion is based on converging lines of empirical evidence and fundamental physical principles. Given this state of knowledge, the burden of proof now rests squarely on self-described skeptics. If they wish to challenge the established consensus, they must produce a credible, coherent, and empirically validated alternative theory. Their theory must be capable of explaining the observed climate evolution at least as well as the current scientific framework. Mere objections are not sufficient. That won't happen. To succeed, such skeptics would have to overturn the basic physics of radiative transfer and atmospheric thermodynamics that underpin understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

It seems like the less latitude it gains in the next 72hrs, the more it gets tucked back under the ridge and bombs in the following 72 hrs, like the Euro and Cmc are showing. The Icon and Gfs show it gaining more latitude in the first 72hrs, then interacting with land when it tries to bomb.

poleward shift of the pac jet = an alaskan vortex as far as the eye can see. no shots of arctic or subarctic air through the next couple of weeks, probably longer. mjo does look like it wants to push out into the pacific. eyeing mid to late november for a potential equatorward shift of the pac jet which would increase chances of popping a -epo depending on where this jet exits.

We had a pretty good period of dime to nickel sized hail yesterday afternoon. It was quite noisy at work. I didn't get any pictures but it was quite possibly the largest hail I have ever seen. We normally only get small stuff around here if any at all.