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Sweet jeebus...I just stepped outside. I'm not doing that again until November! 86F/DP 78F

87/71. Getting sticky

Thank you @Jsauss and @Itstrainingtime One bad thing about my birthday- it’s always miserably hot.

Haven’t had a cloud yet

As usual, puts me in the middle of nothing.

Thankfully it's been solid clouds this morning. Makes a bearable. 84°

Spotty isolated showrs and downpoors

Paul, using other stations as references will only work if those stations are reference grade themselves. If there are station moves or other major changes, they are no longer "references". The stations you have chosen as "references" show 14 detected breaks in the 1941 to 1975 windows alone. I was working on this graph anyway, see below. The fact that known good references are so scarce is a major motivation for developing homogenization processes or alternatives like BEST's scalpel. These methods presume the raw data is replete with breaks and work to overcome this challenge. Your approach does not. The September 1921 TOB for Coatesville shows up clearly on the kinds of comparisons seen above.

Short to mid-range guidance has definitely trended towards the dry side for much of NC with heat building back in next week. Was really hoping to kill the drought but we might yet start sliding again.

85/78/99 here I've been growing 3 different types of palm since 2017. Needle palm and Sabal Minor dont grow into trees but they are cold tolerant enough to survive our winters completely unprotected. I had some defoliation with this past winter being as harsh as it was but they survived and are growing back well this summer. I also have a Windmill palm which does grow a trunk. You would need to have some protection from the coldest days in the winter for a Windmill palm, but the vast majority of the time you could leave them unprotected. It's truly amazing being able to look out the window when it's 20 degrees outside, everything is dead and brown but the palm trees stay green like evergreens. Wish more people knew they can grow here

Probably safe to book the trip to FL or the Caribbean this September when it’s cheap.

Feels like a pop up thunderstorm type day out there.

We appear to be early phases of El Niño intensification coinciding with passing the 400 ppm mark. But at least we don’t have the giant Pangea landmass configuration anymore. So while past warmer climates experienced stronger El Niños, this current configuration with the Pacific as it is today probably wouldn’t support something as extreme in the future. https://www.science.org/content/article/strong-el-niños-primed-earth-mass-extinction Geological evidence suggests that before the eruptions, atmospheric CO2 levels were likely about 400 parts per million (ppm), similar to the present day. As they began to tick up, the model showed profound El Niño events began to occur, says Alexander Farnsworth, a study co-author and paleoclimate modeler at the University of Bristol. Warm western waters at the equator spread east, preventing deep, cold waters from reaching the surface. Chaotic weather would have been unleashed worldwide, as happens during today’s El Niños. As CO2 levels rose to 800 ppm and beyond, the El Niños grew more fearsome than any in history, lasting up to 7 years. “You’re seeing this incredible heat buildup, which just persists,” Farnsworth says. https://eos.org/articles/mega-el-nino-may-have-led-to-major-mass-extinction-252-million-years-ago The good news is that the configuration of our continents means that even if the ENSO cycle changes wildly, we won’t experience conditions nearly as brutal as those at the end of the Permian. “The modern ocean is a much better buffer than before,” said Sun. “We have much more complex ecosystems.”

@MANDA that confirms my guess of 1.25” at my house. A buddy in Denville sent photos of how high the Rockaway crested this morning.

Happy Birthday, Canderson!!!

happy birthday Chris @canderson

Feels like Dagobah outside.

87/77/99 here. We just need some palm trees and we’d be set.

86/76

A review by GPT of the literature on 1k-10kyr (Holocene) ENSO:

83/80/76 out. Went out long enough to turn on the sprinkler to water my grass seed. I am determined to get it going this time. Younger Ms. J went down to ride early to beat the heat hopefully. Would like to see some rain today but incase it does not I should be covered with the watering.

Pipe. Yes, they were probably overexcited, BUT violent tornadoes don't have to be wedges, AND there are numerous non-meteorological reasons the EF5 rating has become very difficult to have applied at an official level.

That is looking real good, if anything it will push east as we get closer, feel bad seeing all the complaining going on from those to the east of me.

I've tried finding some ENSO reconstruction studies via proxies and can't find anything pointing to something this large. Still looking though. Prob safe to say 150y at this point. Might be realistically as long as 1kyr or something like that. A few recent papers have pointed towards increasing ENSO variance and amplitude with continued warming: Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate | Nature Communications (2022) And: Global climate mode resonance due to rapidly intensifying El Niño-Southern Oscillation | Nature Communications (2025) Strictly speaking, it is too early to say whether we are entering a phase of increased ENSO variability, much less resonance. The models here also use SSP5-85, which we are running under for emissions (but above for radiative forcing!). The takeaway, in my mind is to keep an open mind here about the *possibility* of a changing system. It's often common to see increased volatility as a state change approaches in non-linear systems like this (even if it's still decades away). The million dollar question, as @BlizzardWx points out, for this season is how far east the warm pool gets and how far east convection gets rooted into this winter. I think it may be as far east as 120W, given that we're already ahead of 1997 (which got to 140W). We're in such rarified air here, it's hard to tell.