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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
IMO this Nino goes nuclear after this upcoming major WWB/ERW and subsequent (new) DWKW. It think that entire WPAC/Indo warm pool gets sloshed east by the end of this event -
In other news, I've been seeing short and medium term forecasts that indicate that the weather pattern over the Southeastern US is changing and there is a persistent moisture flow setting up (which will be very beneficial as they've been in a very severe drought that's had a major impact on agriculture etc). I don't understand the meteorology behind all of that, but if we are on the fringes we might benefit by way of more consistent precipitation going forward (?)
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For the record it does seem like we keep a wet pattern about here through Wednesday.
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Sun is back out. I have a BBQ planned Monday. We will get rain all day Monday. You're welcome
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Yep, slid around on either side of us. We got some sprinkles, just barely enough to make the deck wet.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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Over 1.5” since Wednesday evening
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maybe the wet nino pattern is finally arriving
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yes the rain should be mostly over by Monday but if you are implying this will end the drought - think again Upton only going for less than 3 inches overall more south than north AFD from KOKX
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Another round came through. Same old story. Storms broke up a few miles away, and reformed miles after me. I'm sure at some point the next week, we should actually get something.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We are +0.58 on today’s RONI (OISST) The CRW RONI is slightly warmer at +0.65C -
Finally - no complaints on this round - much needed and appreciated steady rain underway in Fallston.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I'd be careful going extreme on RONI Super Nino snowman19, we are little behind at this time of the year. Only 1991 had a May RONI of +0.5 and become Super but that was the lowest, the average per Super event later in the year was +0.8/yr in May. I think we are around 0.4-0.5, which is last place I think. -
0.03 here lol The grass/clover mixture I planted last Fall is definitely shallow rooted. Given the paltry rainfall this Spring, that shit will definitely burn to hell by mid to late June unless something changes dramatically in the next couple weeks. Right around an inch for May so far and 1.4" in April doesnt cut it.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Voyager replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The CDC Daily climate composites page hasn't been working so I can't do exact measurements on the data is was based on, but the SSTA on Tropical Tidbits looks about Neutral so far, close to 0.0. -
0.15" today. Also the "event" total lol. Looking at guidance, probably a half to maybe an inch total through Sunday. I'll take the low end of that. That wont do much for the dryness here. Really need a 2" soaker.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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.30” so far for today. My event total is 1.32”. It is gloomy and cool but I just keep saying we need the rain, we really need the rain. I would like to see it space itself out but will take what we can get.
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Steady drizz and showers all day in silver spring. Maybe a half inch by now? Can't complain, need it.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Soooooo glad I just got a mow in. The rain started right as i was finishing up. Not sure when I would have been able to do it otherwise and it would have been borderline unmanageable ha.
