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Canadian update continues to insist on El Nino conditions developing in February at the surface. Likely by January below the surface. Fairly cold winter nationally. Has the cold look for the North-Central US I've been getting from analogs since Aug/Sept. My blend from Oct - (2013 x4, 2024 x4, 2018, 2022). Hasn't broken yet. I am expecting a pretty widespread warm up after a cold first 10 days or so - we'll see if that pans out.

What’s the difference between a purple zero and a white zero?

Looks like qpf is getting reduced on the NAM (no suprise) and ICON. At least in Maine. Alas.

Ahhh the classic snow to rain event in Allentown while the Poconos get hammered. I’m just glad we’re getting something this early in the season.

This is bothering me a lot, as the NAMs are usually the colder solutions. I think we're still in the range where the NAM could be having synoptic issues, but if it continues on Monday to keep the accumulations further northwest of the I-95 corridor, I'm going to guess it's right. The faster onset, shown by the GFS and its hi-res HiResW FV3, would help a ton here, although even where it shows snow, the thermal profile has pretty much zero margin for error.

High of 52 after a morning low of 34. Was quite raw this afternoon, picked up .24” of rain and temps dropped to mid 40s

TEMP _________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -4.0 -3.8 -4.5 -5.9 -3.3 -1.5 -3.6 -2.9 -2.4 SNOW _______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD ____DTW ___ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 12.8" 25.6" 50.7" 57.3" 61.5" 115.7" 70.0" 12.5" 88.8"

It's not worth some of these guys.... Their here every year pulling the same crap. It's comical.

looks like a -AO/NAO to me

Your area is probably the most interesting of anyone on the forum. That southern Middlesex County zone has been consistently modeled as the battle ground on all guidance. Like could certainly be 8-12" of paste, or like 2-4" of 4:1 slop.

High not running off coast as fast

This is a better setup IF the EPS is right. Just a tad too far north and east

This thread should actually be extended to December 2nd (Tuesday) since it would last through at least that said morning. Not much on the 12z Euro: A bit juicy on the 00z NAM: So-so on the 18z GFS:

Thursday night looks very cold. Teens for many.

True

Can we get a Euro track with Nam dynamics? lol.

Adding to the list!! Thanks Mappy

I will gladly take 2-4 here. For those who said they would rather have nothing than 1-3/2-4... They might as well get off this thread and wait for the "BIG" one.

Until the Euro moves more, it literally has had the same general look for days, color me skeptical as every trend for the major models has been south.

He’s had a rough week lol

Latest (01z) NWS Blend.

Yeah we were tossing those NAM solutions with lots of confidence at 72-84 hours. It was well beyond what even the most amped globals had. I think the most surprising aspect is how little the euro has moved. If anything it moved south until finally ticking back north a little at 18z. I kind of expect a pretty even compromise between it and GFS now which will end up as the common 70/30 from a couple days ago.

Hmm not what was said by some yahoo rains to Maines

HRRR extended has trended that way too like the NAM.

Man, if only we had some blocking in place for the 6-10th timeframe… .