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Water dissolving and water removing . 55° bright and sunny . Same as it ever was...

This was actually a very easy call. I could see it months ago that we were going to have a warm beginning of November, like 2020, 2022, and 2024.

In a few days it looks like Falls Lake will fall below its summer low point of around 245.55 feet. It is now at 245.86 and dropping. I am afraid we could rival the 2007 lows if this keeps up.

New run looks like my Dec-Jan composite

That was yesterday

It's like I freeeee riiiiiide, Forky really neeeds to get laid

It was too late for Dolly Sods and the remnants of Isaias did a number on the higher elevation leaves but I hit some real nice spots near Monterey VA and at the Blackwater Canyon in WV as well as near Seneca Rocks (which is an awesome place color or not). These were all taken on 10/15 and 10/16.

Heck of a way to run a Super Duper El Nino™

Not here. Low month temp in May ranges between 21 to 30, median 26. For October it's 11 and 26, median 20. Hilltop vs. rad pit? Touched 19 this morning. On 29 Octobers we've gone below twenty 14 times, though only 3 times in the most recent 11 years. Didn't check the washtub ice until 10:30, still 1/4" thick.

You struggle to frost, I struggle to get rid of frost. Wonder if we can go the whole day. 11:38am and half the yard still looks like this. North facing cold hollow, going to preserve snow well if we get any this winter. Thats the midday sun here, lol. Yikes. Wonder if it’ll crest the trees in another month.

I still see obs https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kslk

HRES still is still showing along with esembles which are fairly well clustered being stuck into the IO the next couple weeks,by far right now its been doing a fairly decent job as most of the RMMS now are showing the same thing to an extent

36.5 for the low and solid frost

100%. It also correlates strongly to snowfalls in excess of 6". The AO runs in odd cycles. Seems like 10-13 year cycles or something close to that. Ive been suspecting the cycle is flipping the last 2 winters. It would go a long ways in helping us this winter if its predominantly negative. Makes a huge difference with ninos. Just because the nino is basinwide or east based doesn't automatically wreck us. Having a +AO will though lol. Based on everything I'm seeing, I'm probably more optimistic about this winter than the vast majority on here. Wont be a cold one like last year I dont think but a persistently suppressed storm track with friendly high latitudes will likely deliver some legit fun even if it melts quick lol.

This is the most potential we've seen for a snowy winter in many years. That's enough to keep me interested. How much snow would it take at the airports this winter to bring the 2011-2026 annual average back up to "normnal"? Lots.

the spike in rate of warming in the last 10-15 years is really impressive

Cirrus and cirrostratus clouds this morning.

Wendy was here (frosty) low of 36

10 of the 20 warmest Septembers in Yellow Medicine County, MN (Population 9,477) have occurred within the past 30 years. This means that the other 10 occurred over the 100 years prior.

It’s the only weather we’ve got

You're actually right this time. Upper 70s in my forecast right now. Could be 80+ for 2-3 days. Crazy stuff

It’s like rai-e-aaaain, on your Christmas day

27.1 at 1100 ft this morning. We microclimate in a big way