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Doesn’t the GFS have a warm bias? I feel like Will has mentioned that many many Trump times over the years

look west (if it survives)…

It was . I have a feeling elevation will matter in this to a lesser degree

Not necessarily....it depends where it's located because a strong vortex located in the vicinity of James Bay is the coldest pattern there is.

I am in Fallston now, so probably better for Parkton than when I was in Monkton or Hunt Valley.

We have a WWA overnight up here, will see what comes of it. Leaving back for Calvert tomorrow, traffic is gonna suck. 28F and overcast right now.

I would like some energy to arrive near mid December from our SW with cold air in place. Webb talks about a Nino like period possibly. Eric Webb @webberweather The ongoing MJO event in the West Pac has led to a *gigantic* build-up of westerly momentum (+U) in the tropical troposphere, w/ GLAAMa approaching +3 sigma; very El Niño-like. Eventually, some of this tropical +U will get injected into the mid-latitude storm track Eric Webb @webberweather 46m Very high +GLAAMa like this coupled with our La Nina base state is not exactly favorable for western troughing/-PNA & I expect this to remain generally the case thru late Dec or so, even tho the Euro weeklies are trying to argue otherwise.

It's amazing how close it is to all snow on the GFS for interior CT. 925 temps are around .5 to 1.5 Celsius during peak warming.. surface 32-34 , 850s around freezing ..

@Stormchaserchuck1I am just north of that 60, where the arrow is pointing.....60% shot at 3"+ according to the EPS.

Sure. Yes. I was caring for my elderly mom but am not currently so...zing. Sorta, I guess.

I honestly don’t remember the set up in that one, I think that was more of an elevated deal if I recall.

Yes, this was never going to be more than 8" IMO.

Yeah that one . Not that this is that at all . Just wondering if anything similar

Probably will do the same with this. Whoever does it, just give me a fake scenario where I got 10” of paste.

The weaker SE solutions don’t necessarily translate to snow. If the whole thing is just weak sauce it’s so borderline it’s going to be white rain

So true !

Is that the one where you got like 8 inches? Honestly, except for a couple events, I pretty much took one of those pens from men in black and erased everything up to 2022. So I have no clue.

9.3 here as of 5pm. Nice dendrites now with southeast winds starting to lighten up.

If they forcasr a mix and we get 2"-3", people are happy for a surprise snow that puts them in a "Christmas spirit". If they forcast 2"-3" and we get a slushy mess their viewers, especially the ones who are stupid enough to get there kids all excited so basically a whole lot of them are pissed. It's the stay at moms with pissed off kids that rule the snarky social media comments in that circumstance. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Does this bear any similarities to that early Dec event last year?

Measured 8 inches here in Buffalo grove

Avg snow for the winter season based off clown maps since 2022 has been about 65”

Looks like NW IL and NE IA will jackpot as the western edge starts to pivot. NE IL will probably get in on it too, expect much of Chicagoland to be 8-10” in the end. The ECMWF did a pretty good job in the end with this system.

Already down to 33 at Frederick house

LES band developed here this aftrn. Light snow along the North Shore. Heavier down towards Duluth/Superior.