All Activity

It doesn’t matter…11/26 is very far away in regards to any sort of weather modeling.

Ensembles aren’t great for cold but it can change. Nino’s typically struggle early on as a baseline too. Not trying to add to the fire, but I do agree with you that getting anything sustained below normal is going to be a big uphill battle this November. Nothing about this screams that Canada is loading up with cold.

Not really rainy, looks more like misery mist for days. Prequel for winter??

Fiberglass?

What's this shyte? November didn't get the memo that every day is supposed to be bright and sunny.

models are likely exaggerating like they typically do this far out today was superb weather, prepped the antique honda and ready for paint tomorrow

Rain

Oh wait…do we lock in silly maps at 384 hrs that barely get us to the end of the first week of Novi…I’ll believe it a month and 3 days from now, when on T-Giving your chowing your peppers still.

Have you seen the modeling for Nov?

Your average 32 frost in Taunton is 10/19….we’ve been below that a few times already. Average first frost for BDL is 10/14…so we right on track. Don’t know about your mulch beds?

Okay, We have been in an overarching dry pattern since 2023 with only brief periods of respite regardless of ENSO state. This year in particular there is a deficit throughout the region, with DCA having one of over 6 inches. That's in spite of the precip events over the last couple months which have since ceased. This is why I'm harping on the pattern change being can kicked, while the growing season may be over this is still a vital window to build up the groundwater and refill the reservoirs. Need I remind you that the Baltimore metro water supply has to dip into the Susquehanna for the fact that Loch Raven is too low. Deficits carry over too and if we look at where things stand since 2023 the long term deficit is as high as 20 inches in some spots. We're going to need as much precip as we can get over the next 6 months or we could very well be right back in a widespread drought come Summer, especially if the forecasts of next year being a niña come to pass. The more the niño kicking in gets pushed back the less likely we are to fully turn the corner on the drought. Care to disagree?

Normal exactly.

That won’t happen….but then again…you’re the new tropics of SNE, so ? Maybe you can donate your veggies to the local bread for life for T-Giving this year, to ensure fresh crops for the Thanksgiving Harvest!

Not here…we right on track.

We just went through this last year, and the year before in the late autumn early winter. Just wanna make it clear, these early PV irregularities are are not related to SSW events.

When is it going to be your turn to make a post that actually adds some value?

I am beginning to think this Nino isn't going to behave like an expected Nino.

Blue sky like every single day has that ever happened before

Combined, the NW Pacific and NE Pacific are near 700 ACE

We’ll crash fast outside the city-winds are pretty calm and dewpoints around 30. I’m pretty confident many drop into the 30s again and maybe near freezing (of course outside the city).

29 to 61. Felt nice taking the dogs for a walk. Trees really popping now

Looks like a 12/24 map.

Odd. Today is the strongest the weeklies have shown it at 10mb. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-10t?base_time=202610240000&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202611090000