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Yea it’s gonna replace it eventually, but it’s still unknown if it’s good or not it’s a prototype at this stage still I believe?

It’s already snowing in Tennessee. Precip looks to really be blossoming & moving rather quickly east to northeast. Maybe we get an earlier start time while the cold is still fully entrenched?

little tiny flakes here.

reality will probably be somewhere in the middle. like the 0z NAM

Sleet, eh it is what it is. Rain. Give me a break.

Ruh roh.

2nd update and likely final call. We are still about 24hrs out so will do an update before the storm if anything major changes. We split the initial 8-16" range up to 8-12/12-16. Less on the s. coast and most in NE MA and Berkshires. Some thought on the forecast BUFKIT ratios initially start high and drop off closer to 10:1 as the warm air intrudes, this is less of an issue well inland where ratios will be a bit higher. Went with about 12-14:1 Strong H7 frontogensis tomorrow afternoon/eve will yield a period of 1-3" per hour and move E/NE Models still diverge on how far N the mix line gets but most of the damage will be done (floor of 8"), but went with slightly lower totals and bottom end of the 8-16 range there Definite signals for enhanced snowfall in E/NE MA but didn't feel confident enough to introduce a new range of 16-22, but highest totals likely there...i put that in text Most of snow appears to fall Sunday/Sun Night with any redeveloping snows wrapping around N of the MA boarder and will add to totals there by an inch or two We are probably one of the most conservative fx out there right now, def more so than the NWS. We'll see how today goes and update if needed, still should be a great storm for most w/ widespread 1 foot+. Biggest concern is southern areas.

Ha, well like I said, I don't think it's terribly substantive unless the 3K wins the battle. Even then, folks get smoked. I have to do my final call and I don't think I'm changing anything.

Lol Toms River…they’ll be fighting to keep the rain at bay.

My driveway in east Chattanooga mostly thawed thanx to apparently enough solar radiation coming through the clouds. Temp is 30. Couple hours ago I thought my glacier of the week had started. Plenty more frozen precip is incoming though. BTW is this gonna be the obs thread? We have a pinned forecast thread.

CTP with some humor this morning Forecast remains largely on track with only minor changes compared to the previous cycle. What could go wrong? Typical uncertainty surrounding the depth and northward push of the mid level warm nose. This shows up the most along and south of the PA Turnpike where sleet/freezing rain could cut down on snow totals.

RRFS (Next-Generation Replacement) Core dynamics FV3 (Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere) Same dynamical core as modern GFS Part of NOAA’s Unified Forecast System (UFS) Grid / algorithm Unstructured cubed-sphere grid Variable resolution No lateral boundary conditions Seamless global → regional scaling

Looks like it's papa NAM. All the other short range guidance says this look is 75 miles overdone not buying it. .

Another short term model not the nam

i gotta revise my snowmap and my snow prediction, lowering by 40%

Looks like more - NAO in Feb. Commodity Wx Group@commoditywx MJO could make move toward warmer mid-late December route (orange line below) or it could continue its pathway favored by subseasonal models (blue line). Meanwhile, stratospheric warming in North Atlantic should favor more -NAO blocking for February.

This is just preparation for the miller B on Thursday.

I'm hoping that screw zone is a mirage and it wont show up in real time

I prob will be

Ha. GL with that

spray the intake chut inside and augers good with silicone, helps.

Quick question, looking at correlation coefficient out of Huntsville. Would the yellow streaks represent the sleet to freezing rain line?

Was looking at some cool temp animations that I generated from the 12z 3k NAM for 2m & 700mb temps. You can see what the NAM thinks is the issue...

29/19 here on the coast at 9:45 am with mostly high clouds.