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Some are hanging their hats on the gfs since it is the most bullish for EOR. Historically, the hat falls on the floor. Good luck.

FWIW (nothing), I think the NAM would have given us snow from the IVT after 84 hours.

Brutal but one must accept the reality here.

That been where i have been over the last couple days, The problem lies north of here, Its great to have when you have a hugger so it doesn't go up the Hudson, But in this scenario it flattens the flow over us and shunts this ENE, Maybe its right, Maybe its wrong, Right now if i was a betting man, I think eastern areas have a shot, I Don't feel as good here, I'll stay on until 0z Saturday but we really need to see some hits on the ensembles with some of these lows actually tracking over land up here or adding members to the western cluster.

and the cave begins

You posted this morning Blizzard. If GFS is what you were referring to 10 mb stronger winds are higher and qpf is equal. So tell me the difference.

As the heights crash and the ML dryslot approaches late tomorrow evening, some of the guidance shows very intense precip…Reggie was hitting this but even the 3k NAM has it now too (not really the the 12k)….there could be a heavy burst of snow for 2-3 hours or so if the column is cool enough.

Grazer coming. Follow the seasonal trends

I was going to post it but 84hr nam synoptics is usually beer.

Not surprised!

If the rest do this, game over

All long range NAM caveats apply, but it looks absolutely nothing like the GFS and Euro with regards to the confluence over New England. Also much slower.

Get better soon! take care!! Paul

Sorry to hear dude, it's always the freaking snowboarders that go down out of control and take people out... Hope you get well soon. 12z NAM at range is a complete whiff. Good start to 12z GFS is going to cave and we'll be tracking the IVT the rest of the way

If the GFS magically scores a coup on this one I'll be ecstatic for my snow, but may just give up on this tracking hobby altogether because it's truly just model chaos!

No. Still FV3-based.

Ya that looks terrible Hopefully the rest of 12z doesnt look like that

NAM is an unmitigated disaster in SE Canada for getting any type of storm even close to us. Have to hope it’s just the clown range NAM being the clown range NAM.

The NAM is just odd. It literally shows nothing .

NAM has UL and surface so disconnected....maybe someone gets an IVT, ha ha.

Despite the drought-like conditions, mud season never disappoints.

NAM also wants to make that trailing wave to the NW stronger but it’s too messy. Bad interactions.

I'll pass. I have spaghetti and meatballs tonight.

So sorry to hear! Hope you have a speedy and painless recovery!! And now that a thread has been started, the GFS can finally start to cave to the Euro at 12z

84 hr 12z nam is a weak 1006mb low sliding off the Carolina’s lol