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Actually, maybe I’m wrong? SLK went from a SW to NNW wind on that temp crash. This is pretty cool to witness.

I think we can squeeze out a few raindrops up this way. Im looking forward to the BBQ weather on Christmas.

I am planning on going up to southern VA for this one. This is definitely their system more than ours.

Same in N.J. if you weren’t in Sussex, hence my name! .

I agree with this. You remember the 70’s and 80’s on LI? I remember cod and dry. Not snow like we got 2000-2018. 1996 was special because it truly was a one off on LI. Snow was always going “north and west “. Countless times predicted snow became cold rain. Many different components need to come together in order for it to snow on LI

Can a mod pin this?

Front’s not here and I dropped 5.6° in 25 minutes under this band.

And just over a week ago, almost everyone agreed and the models pointed out a good pattern for snow. Now nothing except cold.

“When one has been angry for a very long time, one gets used to it. And it becomes comfortable, like old leather. And finally... becomes so familiar that one can't ever remember feeling any other way.” .

some signs of life on the weekend wave with a handful of models now ditching the dampening duster and maintaining a decent wave east into N. IL hope we see more good trends today to keep the streak going

Nice to see the mid month warm up really muted, hopefully it’s not just waiting for the perfect time…

Isn’t that a little melodramatic? Not saying you’re wrong, but I think a lot of people would have lost their minds here if they were around for a lot of the 1990s outside of two fun winters. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. .

Seemed to me like models kinda lost it

Classic north of I-40 storm. Car topper for most. At least it's something!

Norlun

Unfortunately, this map from the WPC says it all.

From your post to their ears. If you are ever betting on dates for early snow, 12/5 is always the sweet spot on the roulette wheel.

Models have trended warmer overnight.

After that, do you think the winter returns, or are we going to torch in January and February, like in 2016-17 and 2022-23?

Cold morning here. 22 degrees.

So far since November, we’ve seen -WPO (Aleutian ridge regime) driven cold. This is in contrast to the -EPO (Alaskan ridge regime) driven cold we saw last winter….. @SnowGoose69 @donsutherland1 @bluewave

Not a horrible GFS run

Snowing nicely under an Ontario LES band. Arctic front is shaping up behind it. I still think we see some flakes in SNE later, though the signal looks meh verbatim on the guidance. Arctic hounds to arrive later today with falling temps and gusts to 20-30. Radiators mount up later tonight. We’ll see how low we can go…might even get single digits back in CT tonight.

No one, including myself is complaining about a solid advisory level event on the second day of meteorological winter to kick off the season. We’ll still have our chances this season to break the streak, hopefully.