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The winter storm watch march ene continues.

Yes, this is what I have been saying, which is why it's important to get ample mid level dynamics on the interior CP.

We can keep this south of Block Island and off the Cape. We don’t need this over the canal.

Apple weather helpfully predicting 23-29” storm total

Euro makes me want to vomit but I'm still optimistic.

Sold, take my money. If I can't have any snow, I at least want my power!

Thoughts?

Things change. A more northern track does introduce the risk for sleet/mix, it’s very common for SE Mass/cape to mix in these setups.

That’s a nasty coastal front just north and west of verbatim. Coke streamers here, but someone on the other side of that will get buried.

Honestly similarities to this. ZR IS ALWAYS OVER MODELED. That being said I fully expect a swath of a bad ice event here but it will be NOWHERE as widespread as models show and many areas will see more sleet than modeled, given the HP were working with that is a mega cold air source through the event I’d have to think IP ends up predominant p type in upstate and foothills.

Ya I’ll take 12”+ and mix a little, better than 6” a no mix.

My forecast hinged on MJO 8 type synoptic look and the guidance has completely lost that in 36 hours and I’m seeing much more of a 7 synoptic look. The specific MJO guidance has also changed…

I think it's more IP/dry slot risk, at least off of the cape...but we aren't quite there yet.

Sell the house, pocket the tax free profits, and don't look back. That's what I did. You can always by online from Costco and make a visit to the closest Costco a pleasure drive.

He’s always colder than my property and my house isn’t that far as the crow flies ha!

Was I that bad?

It can only cut so much into that hp. I don't care how bombed out it is. I still think it would try try to jump from TN or KY before getting to wv. But I'm not a met either. Regardless the thump being depicted is historic alone.

First call 10”

I will get pounded for this, but I'll take the March 2001 risks as opposed to what was modeled......

You as well. I guess the whole foothill crowd. The hype was so real Sunday-Tuesday. Everything was going right. Operational models. Ensembles. Slight fluctuations but it was locked in.

So now it’s raining in SNE…is that what you’re saying??

I'm wavering on going out and getting a generator this evening. We just bought a house in Fayetteville (GA not NC) a couple weeks ago and I'd planned to eventually get a transfer switch setup installed over the summer (and maybe even a tri-fuel generator to run off natural gas). Wasn't planning on staring down the barrel of an ice storm this quickly. Need to go ahead and get the grill hooked up so at least we could cook something if needed. Part of me hopes that living near a hospital and a data center means our power would be back on pretty quickly but that's wishing... got spoiled by our old house outside Savannah; even during hurricanes and the 2025 snowsleetice storm we somehow never lost power. Nevertheless I'm pulling for this thing to just keep moving north (sorry NC folks). Give me rain if I can't have either snow or sunny and warm.

6z euro

Yup. Gotta know when to fold em.

Get to school, junior