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So apparently some think EDC should be fired too...I'm sorry but I don't understand. He is not a bad GM!

I love it when MD tips off at midnight

The weeklies change every day! In 3 days they will be different and it will be a new concern. The fact is, the modeling just can't do what we want and hope for it to do. As I get older, it's clear that long range modeling must be viewed with an eye on seasonal trends, both in the actual weather and the model errors/biases. IOW, how have the models been doing with medium and long range forecasts of late and what is the general tenor of the weather. This year, modeling has general been too warm at longer ranges and it frankly hasn't been a toaster oven for the past few months. All this considered, advertised medium/long range warmups should be viewed skeptically until they start to prevail. Until then, don't worry about it at all. And on a related note, it maybe fine to dissect every medium and long range model run because it's what we do. But until the mr/lr modeling can prove they are worth anything by being accurate and do so with day-to-day consistency, they cause more useless angst than they're worth imho and making forecasts off them with any certainty as I see being made are folly. Enjoy the cold Thanksgiving holiday weekend (another sign of the coming winter flavor) and forget about December's weather until December! Rant over.

If we get the warm pattern beyond the 10th it could very well entrench itself for the remainder of the season.

The cold will be lurking in Canada by next week just need a SW to come in under SNE but definitely cutter potential moving through first week of December. I think the interior has a shot at some frozen accumulation but we are talking out beyond day 7 or 8. Honestly, I would take a warm cutter over 1"-2" of slop turning to rain, this early in the season.

Like you, I see the typical biases in that thread as well. I have engaged them way back in the Eastern Weather days and unfortunately I believe there are some agendas at play. You guys always have great discussions in your Sub Forum and I follow y'all closely!

Euro weeklies isnt that warm. Also , im not sure why people think the 2nd half of December will be warm. This isnt a warm signal right now. Mjo into 8 and 1 is a cold signal.

Hey, it’s not the kill, it’s the thrill of the chase! Let’s just hope Sweet Lucy doesn’t pull the ball on us. (it’s in the lyrics)

I’m wondering if despite the clear warming trend of the Euro Weeklies related to its insistence of a stubborn potent SER along with the current progged switch to a +AO if there’s lower than normal confidence due to a combo of the MJO taking a track that’s often cold (though far from always as we know) and the current very weak SPV, which typically takes 2+ weeks to bring the E US persistent dominating cold.

big 'un, cne too

That’s one possible factor that has led me to continue to monitor the period. By the end of November, I think there will be greater clarity.

It's here folks!

Good write-up but I doubt you will get a warmup when the MJO goes into 8. Watch the models trend colder like they did with this upcoming period ahead next week.

I may be one of the few hoping to whiten the ground from the first storm. Backside Wed evening overnight to Thanksgiving morning "may" bring a streamer burst or two if things line-up just right. NCEP says I have a chance

Caps with the sweet W tonight! After the disaster Tampa game, this was a nice bounce back.

That's a great question and there was plenty of speculation, but the fact remains that it was Smith's demands specific to Gateway getting King that led to the situation. Should some blame go to the school board? Absolutely. But that doesn't mean that Smith shouldn't be blamed as well. From my understanding (I haven't followed PSU football in awhile), there seems to be an unhappy subset of fans too that see his pins as a political play/attempt to strong-arm Penn State and.... hey... I suppose it worked for him once with Gateway, why not again with Penn State?

You mean this one?

Can you tell me how one gets such God like powers that they can have a whole school board and administration eagerly on Their knees waiting to serve them? Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I obviously trust yours. You just don’t do the pretty maps, and as you know i love dirty pictures.

Yea, I was thinking that based solely on climo, the rain/snow line ends up much further north than currently forecast. Not a bad look, though, for late November. As you say, hopefully a sign of good things to come.

18z gfs has a nce snower for NNE 12/3

As a Gateway graduate during that time and as someone who was there during the "Justin King" debacle - it was just that. A debacle. King went to the school board early on and told them that they had to invest heavily in the football facilities or he was taking King elsewhere. Gateway did - gluttonously so at the direction of Smith. So much so that the academics suffered and still continue to 20 years later/never recovered. Just take a look at where they rank now amongst western PA schools - quite a far cry from just before Smith took over. There's no excuse to have Pentium 2's running Windows 95 when the new weight room has Xbox 360's on every TV. There was no money left for anything outside of football, but they had new everything all the time with everything paid for, despite other sports playing with broken down equipment and non-athletic organizations having to self-finance. Then Smith skedaddled as soon as King went to PSU and left Gateway in the lurch. No mentoring of anyone, no hope for continued success. Just trying every way he could to get King ahead. He was a diva and a selfish one at that, plain and simple. On top of that, and VERY UNFORTUNATELY, any time anyone said a word against him or his approach, it was turned into a race discussion. It had nothing to do with race imo, and everything to do with him taking the piss out of Gateway for all they were worth. I suppose he's done okay at PSU, but in Monroeville? He's still public enemy #1 for taking a Blue Ribbon school and shifting focus to football, wringing them dry, and taking the midnight train away. And that's from someone who went to Gateway AND Penn State.

Continuing the illustration showing how I'm thinking about December 1-10 and December 11-25. Here's the framework I am using. The CPC 8-14 day forecast is a good illustration of how I think things will evolve during the December 1-10 period: The risks of a faster turn to a warmer pattern in much of the eastern U.S. (not the Great Lakes, northern New England, eastern Canada) have increased with growing ensemble consensus for a predominantly AO+ pattern. Composite WPO-/EPO-/AO+/PNA- 500 mb Height Anomalies: ECMWF Weekly 500 mb Forecast for December 8-15: Composite WPO-/EPO-/AO+/PNA- Temperature Anomalies: ECMWF Weekly 500 mb 2m Temperature Anomaly Forecast for December 8-15: Right now, the guidance is still in a low-skill timeframe. What's noteworthy is the change that has taken place in the past few days. For example, this was the ECMWF weekly forecast for the December 18-15 period from three days earlier: If the guidance holds or strengthens the forecast AO+ beyond December 10, the warmer outcome could become the baseline for that period with perhaps a mid-month shift to the milder pattern. The 18z GEFS is also suggesting that the EPO could go positive. If so, that would further increase the risks for a turn toward milder conditions. In sum, December 1-10 still remains on track. One should see cold move into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes and then spread eastward. The Southeast will remain warm due to the resilient SE Ridge. Uncertainty beyond December 10 has increased and the risk of a shift toward a warmer pattern has increased. The guidance will need to be watched closely to see if its turn toward an AO+ persists.