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Dont feel bad I get a weenie emoji all the time from snowman19.

Some people never graduated grade school.

What’s your Dec MJO prediction? What’s your Jan PNA prediction? I expect a +PNA due to all -ENSO PNA Decs since 83 transitioning to Jan +PNAs.

Exactly. No matter what is posted it gets terds or wieners. I mean really? WTF? So dam dumb.

I will say on the gfs the H7 track is along south coast. I would look at that when 925-850 is 0 to near 1C like it is for Kevin because you’ll need big time VV to help get your isothermal bomb. That puts near Kev to BOS or so in that zone, although BOS is probably too warm lower 1500’.

Sleet and rain now. But the surface temperature continues to drop. 34.7 now down from a morning high of 37.4.

BWI: 22.5" DCA: 15.6” IAD: 26.2” RIC: 11.8” Tie Breaker SBY: 9.4"

Sloatsburg will prob be the transition line between accumulating snow & white rain. I’ve seen this story many times before. Rockland especially with these gradient storms is a snow hole. To get into the 5” + amounts you prob want to be in northern Sussex/w Passaic into Orange County. Watches should be going up for Orange/Sussex in the next update

I live at like sea level and it's basically still fall here in the lowlands. But whatever lol. I'm off work until March 1. I'll be out in the Catoctins at daybreak gearing up for a hike up to 1800'.

Track is going to depend on the strength of the SLP, A weaker low will be SE.

Starting to become interested in next Saturday. Models have a weak Miller B setup and some of them hit us with a moderate snow event.

If its not that its a weenie one.

You can with beer

You do. It’s Unreal. Pathetic actually.

You hate to see it.

Every post gets a terd emoji from Tiger torch…what an insufferable poster that guy is. Just plain Sad.

Unless there's a southern component to the winds, I'll be fine here. Further down the coast is a different story as due east is off the water there.

I don't see the 12z GFS being SE.

It's a little unusual to see snow accumulation on trees, grass, and car tops in the middle of the day and snow fog/ low visibilities with surface temperatures between 35F and 37F. And outside of a few bursts, the intensity hasn't been all that great either. This is an overperforming airmass.

Really? Sometimes I wonder what you are really thinking? Why would you ever base any ideas on what may happen in the longer range on OP runs. That post deserves a 100 bun salute if there ever was one worthy of it. As Anthony says…are you new here?

I agree with leaning towards the 3K. Even in the short range, the 12K over performs more so. We’ll see how this plays out. A bunch of runs to go.

Hey CAD...it's beffrey2.. it's cuz he is tired of getting screwed year after year. I totally feel his pain! Hope all is well.

The 3” would be up near Yorktown Heights with less than an inch for Yonkers. Westchester is a tale of two worlds. The dividing line is often near Hastings on 87.

I agree... Look at the GFS.. it's been trending SE now over the last few runs. Let's just hope the Euro 12z holds and stays right on us.

Yes, Its pretty tough this time of year with SST's still cooling from summer at the water unless you have a very cold airmass in place.