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Icon gives se pa a modest little event on Saturday

My bad I meant it looks like the ridge is farther west on the Nam. But. My eyes are bad without my contacts

Kinda like looking at a car wreck on a long drive? Fucking boring and haven't seen anything interesting for miles.

Why not? We’re on a weather board and we love new data. I’m not saying take it seriously at all. No harm in looking for trends or using it as an assist. We all know the NAM is a unserious JV model, especially at this range.

Now that I’m leaving to chase some snow suddenly Saturday looks snowier. Aahhh! Hope it pans out for everyone.

Agree

Looking more likely…esp outside SE areas.

Correct. I look because there’s nothing else. And we all love data. I’ve seen it change incrementally toward one way or the other plenty of times as it got closer in.

Was typing this then you sent it. Thank you. Let’s compare the major models we’re going to lend any kind of credibility to rather than the h84 12k NAM.

It’s Saturday night if you want a few inches .

I don’t agree.

You don't want shortwave troffing (concave up) northeast of the vortmax at the base of the trof. That's what sabotages the coastal threat on the 12z ECMWF and that's that the 18z NAM/ICON shifted more towards. By comparison, the 12z GFS had subtle shortwave ridging (concave down) over NYS.

18Z GFS will likely look OTS

Interesting wrt the NAM vs RGEM. Usually seems like in the 40-60 hour range the NAM will be warm nosing any and all.

12km NAM is junk. Even worse at range. I don't even bother looking at it anymore.

At 84 the RGEM looks good with respect to the trough orientation, but again, not quite in range

Looks like a higher ridge in the west in the nam.. unless my eyes are screwed up again

GFS gonna disappoint in 30 minutes. I'm just hoping it doesn't go too far east and just a toned down version of 12Z. That was definitely the upper echelon wrn envelop of outcomes. If it goes back to a scraper or whiff i wouldn't be surprised but id bet money it won't look like 12Z

Think our best chance of snow is Saturday from this little jet stream and vort wave. Icon and Rgem putting down 1-3” over the area.

Ahh, you guys are great. Like everyone else here, I'm a snow weenie. Unfortunately that has meant driving (or flying) long distances to experience it firsthand. We are close enough in the MA to be in the game but rarely score. So, experiencing these chases with other like-minded people makes it so much better. I hope that as future snow seasons are upon us, we form a bigger and bigger chase group. @dailylurker and I, not having met in person (but texting constantly), had a great time in New York - he did his thing and I did mine while still hanging out a lot. And we nailed it - close to 100 inches over 4-5 days. Best of all worlds and I invite everyone to consider joining future chases. @NorthArlington101 we'll hit Davis for a bite, Canaan for some tubing and Blackwater Falls for a little hike in the snow this weekend. Anyone else up for it? We're all here because of our love of weather. Just treat each other as you would seeing a map w/a 979 right off the coast of Norfolk with a 1048 over Ontario and a big ass Greenland block.

Look at 84 nam vs 90 GFS. Trof position and sharpness not alike to me.

ICON is also a mostly rain event. Frustrating to say the least.

It was above freezing not too long ago

Snowing at Cataloochee now.

Add the Rgem to the list