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Carteret put out a message that we could be in the bull’s-eye, could be 5 to 7 inches of rain, expect flooding, stay off the road, etc. I don’t want anyone to see that much water! At least they’re being more proactive than usual, because it’s damn near a guarantee we’re going to flood, it’s just a matter of how badly. I wish everyone good luck and safety.

Stuffing popping up in northern Balt Co.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/07/31/record-humidity-july-maps/

I'm at 89 currently.

Latest NWS statement on flood watch District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard- Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 1035 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore and St. Marys, and northern Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Northern Fauquier, Northwest Prince William, Southern Fauquier and Western Loudoun. * WHEN...From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Significant flash flooding is possible. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop and move across the area this afternoon into this evening. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing very heavy rain, with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches in 30 minutes. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected. Some areas could experience multiple rounds of thunderstorms, with higher rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches possible. This could result in numerous instances of flash flooding. Showers and thunderstorms will begin early this afternoon, and the heaviest rainfall is most likely from 3 PM to 8 PM. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information.

85/78 at DCA at 10am... yucky

At least regarding the airborne pollutants, they were much worse in the past compared to today.

could get a sneaky 90F today

Initiation near Bel Air

I'll happily take higher temperatures with lower dewpoints. Yesterday was horrendous and today my heat index was 96 with a 84 air temperature. Literally makes me nauseous Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Here's what PRISM has for nationwide lows. We have a very good shot at setting a national monthly record here. Current record is around +1.8F (relative to 1991-2020).

sunnier than expected as things have slowed down-already 85 in alot of places including here.

I am having trouble loading NCEI's Climate at a Glance, seems to load better at the end of each day. But I think I did undersell this July a bit. Looking at the numbers, I think a lot of statewide means will come in significantly higher than shown by the urban stations. Rural and high elevation sites looked to be the most above normal, which aren't really reflected in the numbers. I didn't look at New England, but I think a Top 5 hottest July on record is on tap for New York (~4), New Jersey (~2), Pennsylvania (~4), West Virginia (~3), Virginia (~3), Maryland (~2 or 3) and other states. Ohio looked like around 11th place, but a top 10 is possible. Some of these mountainous locations were throwing up unprecedented minimum temperatures. PRISM has this at +1.464F nationally (relative to 1991-2020), which is a very impressive tally for July. I will note, however, that NCEI has tended to come in somewhat lower with anomalies in recent years (as a general rule). So that might be a little inflated. However, if it's in the ballpark with NCEI, we are well within striking distance of a record hot summer. The current record is +1.67F for JJA set in 1936 & tied in 2021. The thing about those summers is they were driven by DRY heat. 1936 was one of the driest years on record (e.g., hottest on record at Des Moines but also lowest mean dewpoint by a long margin). 2021 was driven by extreme anomalies in the arid western U.S. This is another beast altogether... the combination of heat & humidity might just be the most extreme since records have been kept. This summer would also likely do better on a population-weighted basis. 1936 was driven by insane anomalies in places where nobody lives, especially in that era (e.g., North & South Dakota).

Pass on the flooding. This air mass is ripe, someone is seeing 2"+ hr rates easily

yeah 13z still targeting us but who knows. it will bounce around for sure

How about short-term? Is this rain missing us to the south?

Mesoanalysis has CAPE >4000 around BWI

Playing in the NH Golf Stroke Play Championship there next Tue, Wed, Thu so will definitely report back. Looks interesting on google maps.

Wasn’t BOS well inland for a while? (Which would make it even more impressive if that were the case)

You just listed the last three summers for ORE… they are all like top 5-10 heaters. I dunno, I applaud you guys for the fight. I gave in a couple summers ago.

Rampant drunkenness in here today lol. Mod excessive rainfall risk extended into SW CT

@dendrite BHO is using the instrumentation at the top of the hill correct? I see Blue Hill COOP in the Nowdata. I ask because I see 96 and 95 there for the last two days. Scratching my head a bit at those values, but I suppose it could be right.

Haha I know wasn't it just lovely out!? Seriously though, my P&C even as recently as Tuesday morning had me at 97 for both Tuesday and Wednesday, whereas MDT and LNS topped out at 93/94 and 94/95 for those days, respectively. Heck, even CXY went only 94/93; THV only 91/92. As @Jns2183 mentioned, high Dews are the enemy of high temps, but the forecasts should certainly be factoring in all of that. Not a huge bust or anything, just thought it was notable. Heat indices were unbearable either way ha.

1000AM Roundup JFK: 87 ISP: 86 New Brnswck: 85 TEB: 85 EWR: 85 NYC: 83 LGA: 81