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What are your early thoughts for analogs? I haven’t been following things too closely the past couple of months, but reading the past few pages and latest guidance it looks like things have trended more in favor of a La Niña rather than cold neutral. You think ENSO will be weaker or stronger than last year?

i have no clue where to put this so im putting it here this is treys or convective chronicles 2025 tornado season recap and forecast verification

I agree that 97L will likely stay out to sea, as CV storms passing NE of 60W/20N, stay out to sea historically 90% of the time. The ones that break that have a huge +H5 ridge over the top after it passes that point, and models don't currently have that.

92 earlier. Way above forecast

Brown lawns across the CT Shoreline as BDR is working on their #1 driest summer on record and 6th warmest. Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Driest June 1st through August 9th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-08-09 2.34 0 2 1966-08-09 2.58 0 3 1999-08-09 2.72 0 4 1993-08-09 3.06 0 5 1964-08-09 3.37 0 6 1957-08-09 3.84 0 7 1994-08-09 3.99 0 8 1995-08-09 4.01 0 9 1955-08-09 4.08 0 10 1970-08-09 4.11 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Warmest June 1st Through August 9th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-08-09 75.3 0 2 2020-08-09 75.2 0 3 2024-08-09 75.1 0 4 1994-08-09 75.0 0 5 2008-08-09 74.4 0 6 2025-08-09 74.3 0 7 2019-08-09 74.2 0 - 2016-08-09 74.2 0 - 2012-08-09 74.2 0 - 2011-08-09 74.2 0 - 1949-08-09 74.2 0 8 2013-08-09 74.1 0 9 2022-08-09 74.0 0 - 1999-08-09 74.0 0 10 1993-08-09 73.7 0 CT ANSONIA 1 NW COOP 2.20 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 2.34 NY BAYPORT 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.40 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.75 NJ RIVER VALE TWP 1.5 S CoCoRaHS 2.84 NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 2.84 NY SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.95 NY SAYVILLE 0.0 N CoCoRaHS 2.96 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 3.01 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 3.05 CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 3.11 CT WATERFORD 2.3 S CoCoRaHS 3.17 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.1 N CoCoRaHS 3.18

Another nice day. Humidity a touch higher. 82/62 Getting bit outside working on the deck. Asian Tiger season now. Bastards are small but itch like crazy. Not many but just enough to find you, and as dry as it is they don't need much water to breed. Empty plant saucers etc.

The Lawson’s cosmic IPA and the Schilling Pilsner are both delicious.

Past few nights have been so nice. I wish summer had more days like that. I remember many nights like these as a kid in the 90's but I swear it's just unbearably hot and humid most nights now. My parents didn't have AC upstairs as a kid so we always slept with the house fan or downstairs depending on how hot it was.

Eff Connecticut. Better beer and cleaner air in New Hampshire.

We watch.

89 push push

No doubt about it Rob. I’ve enjoyed seeing, on occasion, the tread becoming the sub forums spring break. As always ….

A bigger problem is meteorologists such as JB posting such graphics. In his case, he’s arguing that the odds favor landfall. Everything I have seen suggests otherwise—maybe a 2-in-3 likelihood of recurvature. It’s early, still. But that is where things stand with Invest 97.

90F here.

At 8.2 not in the least S C. At my pace I’ll be 99 when I get clis3cto your present total. Besides I always get a great, albeit, nostalgic feeling when I see your avatar. Stay well, as always.

Temperatures in the greater New York City area have exceeded the guidance this afternoon, in part due to the driest start to August since 2010. Newark reached 90 for the 32nd time this year.

At least the weather is nice there. For 3/4 of the year the weather is s*** here, now that we don't get real winter, and warm season is all rain and cut offs to July 4th.

Sorry, sir. This is a Wendy’s. We root for storms around here like college football teams.

87 in hot Hampshire.

Bodes well for -AO this winter....but I do agree with you and @bluewavethat the NAO is likely to average +despite this.

Bluewave post from 5-6 days in the morning on EPS pattern and beautiful weather was right. EPS again, I'm afraid. Erin or Fernand looks next up... from the guidance I see a recurve but maybe close enough to help reduce our Aug rainfall deficit.

just one time could we get this to happen with an unseasonably cold airmass to the north

78 here

Android

I’m sure a lot of us quietly would love a storm to track and love the natural beauty of big storms, but maybe don’t openly act so excited and seemingly be rooting for a devastating storm. Real lives are affected and it isn’t just a video game. I can only hope as this or any storm gets closer to land these kinds of post get cleaned up. You can start your own wish casting thread if you want but don’t bring it in here. .