All Activity

looks good.

Euro is south and a day later=split the difference apply e=mc squared and it's a snowstorm

Where can one find the noaa weather model?

Models say you might be able to sneak it in. The mid-level clouds that will be coming in from the south look like they'll hold off until midnight or so (look at the 700 RH on the GFS). Higher level (500mb) RH still gives you a window before 11pm or so. Going to the mesos, the HRRR/NAM Next look good through 10pm while the NAM parent has some clouds moving in closer to 8pm. All-in-all, you'll have to make a call on how much risk your group is willing to take.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 134 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 VAZ064-075>078-521-522-180300- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WW.Y.0001.260118T1500Z-260119T0000Z/ Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- 134 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches. * WHERE...Portions of east central, eastern, and north central Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The advisory may need to be expanded southward with future updates if the snow forecast continues to trend upward.

With tonight's Lows and receiving 2" tomorrow will look pretty cool out there Monday morning. I still have past frozen junk piles as well. So in essence, leftover street junk lingering plus snow on snow events plus incoming freeze....not bad.

Latest HRRR looks good for early morning tomorrow .

That's more like it.

Wakefield issuing WWAs

You'e been all over that John, nice.

15z SREF basically held serve. Orientation of precip adjusted somewhat and maybe a hair wetter over eastern areas.

I'm going to simply hope the Euro Ai, which has been really great, is correct. The Euro would probably cause me to check out for winter if it happened.

FFC updating to WSW.

I mean WTF

This shouldn't have been much of a surprise. This was well signaled for days as a short duration, high intensity event. And models were showing near or just below freezing wetbulb temps even to the coast. That's not a terrible antecedent airmass.

Winter storm warning for parts of south central Georgia including Macon. Heavy snow and up to 3 inches.

I'm closing in on 5 inches as is most of Orange County in the 4-5 range. Kudos to the HRRR from yesterday.

The 12z GFS has a colossal slop storm next weekend.

That's the best...when we've got something on the doorstep and other potential events to follow after!!! Better than grasping at shreds of hope during shit the blinds periods, by showing week 4 Euro weeklies and MJO charts!

Approaching 4" here. Might be the best event of the year locally!

tomorrow will be even colder so this could be a very snowy weekend!

Coming down real nice here again..roads covered again. We add to todays 1 inch. Beautiful wintry appeal. Snowy weekend.

Looks like 1-2'' on the colder surfaces. Struggling to stick to the pavement.

Poundmetown now