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This ends up dry, btw

I just got done shoveling and wow, what a job. Very difficult due to the layer of ice under the snow. I had to scrape and scrape so hard with the shovel to get it up. In some spots I had to put salt down to loosen it up before getting it up. A total of only 2 and a half inches here, but it was a very high impact due to the ice. I am going to skip my workout today because I already got it with the shoveling, lol. Hopefully the next winter storm will be all snow for our area.

We don’t sweat thermals on 12 day away fantasy storms anyway, get the pattern right, get a storm. First things first.

You guys up in NNE should get some good icing . You being up on a hilltop may help as the valleys lock in the cold. I’m not that familiar with your topography and how these situations work there , but around here with in situ CAD valleys get the longest icing . Dendy I’m sure can assist .

As we've discussed, we need any semblance of an Alaskan Vortex or GOA Low to erode or shift away.

I think you’ll get there.

I'd 100% take that for back this way.

Must you be so greedy?

It's wild how scoured out the cold gets on the Euro AI. The entire NA continent is AN to much AN as soon as the Aleutian ridge breaks down. It's like it's the only thing delivering cold to our source region, but as soon as it leaves, all cold goes with it and Pacific air floods everywhere.

i like the 1004 low to our south for NYD. Maybe it has upside of instead of an inch...1.50 inches

I would take that

The fly in the ointment for the 12z Euro (which has a better 500 patter) is the lack of a decent cold source for NA. Both the GEM and GFS don't evacuate all of that air. I "think" we are about to hit a pretty good time frame...but we don't want to lose that cold source.

Euro AI has same for NYD

12z Euro has an 8-12+" snowstorm at the end of it's run. Panels loading so give it a sec.

Get that STJ going and cold nearby and eventually we will get more than a cold rain

I let this last one roll off of my chest....I was so appreciative of that Xmas bone and knew I was in a bad spot for this. Hopefully snowy January en route.

Definitely the best look we’ve had in a while! I like where we’re at. Could all go to pot but for now it’s hard not to weenie. I think someone on the east coast is getting a big dog and I love our odds with ample cold on this side of the globe.

Ahh yes, the usual Michigan winter I’ve come quite accustom to… Where it’s dry and sub-zero for days followed by a sudden warmup to 33° with 2” of rain and 60 mph winds one day, then right back to sub-zero and dry for weeks.

Yeah man, I feel for you. It’s not hyperbole either, you have just absolutely struck out at your location. Even down here with this last event I’m well over average for December. Something has to break right for you.

After the absolutely abysmal performance by the GFS/GEFS today (and that’s putting it nicely), I wouldn’t believe anything it shows. It’s still trying to figure out today’s storm…maybe around 5:00 tonight, it should have it all figured out. In fact, if the GFS told me the sky is blue, I’d have to go outside and check it out for myself. It is simply dreadful and the worst model there is

After 240, the NAO has simply taken over the pattern on the 12z Euro. Really good run after a meh-run by the 12z GFS.

thermals okay at best

Anyway, we should all have ample chances the rest of the season if it works out how I envision.

I am not interested in getting >0.75” of freezing rain.