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Last year, a similar issue arose regarding 95° or above days at Phoenixville. It's pre-1950 data is unreliable. For the 95° or above highs, I ran regression equations based on the 1950-1980 period testing West Chester and Phoenixville and West Chester and Coatesville. The West Chester - Phoenixville equation broke down badly when applied to the 1930-1949 period, ballooning from 2.8 days to 12.4 days. The West Chester - Coatesville equation held reasonably consistent. This disparity suggested that the issue concerned Phoenixville, not West Chester. To determine whether the 1950-1980 period was an issue, I also tested that equation for 1981-2015 for West Chester - Phoenixville. The equation held up reasonably well. The Coatesville data record ended in 1982, so I could not test the West Chester - Coatesville relationship. The equations for the 1930-1949 and 1950-80 periods strongly argued that Phoenixville's 1930-1949 measurements were at issue and are not reliable. That also includes the currently recognized state maximum temperature record of 111° that was set at Phoenixville. The more likely value is probably near 105° based on the 1950-1980 relationship. I now repeated the exercise for 90° or above highs at Phoenixville. I expected that just as had been the case with 95° or above highs, the 1930-1949 period would see vastly more 90° or above highs than predicted while the 1981-2015 period would not be too different from what was predicted. The outcome: The 1930-1949 Phoenixville data is wildly out of line with both the rest of its historical record and the West Chester data that it is unusable in its raw form for any credible analyses.
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
weatherwiz replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Probably more so the northern half of VT/NH. We may get screwed with s/w subsidence and morning clouds/precip. But up north, closer to the sfc low could be a different game with some better approaching forcing later in the day -
93L – “Inactive” Season Posting Check-In
BarryStantonGBP replied to BarryStantonGBP's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Land killed it -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
weatherwiz replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Not sure how much develops tomorrow afternoon, probably going to be quite isolated but I'd watch any storm that develops across upstate NY, VT, and NH. Could be room for a few brief tornadoes there. Large helicity field tomorrow and pretty good CAPE -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
forkyfork replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
that's because it's full of low info snow voters -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
ineedsnow replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
A few storms starting to pop -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
Sundog replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
All these years (20+) on weather forums and this is the first time I'm hearing about the WBGT. -
And they are o’natural. She does not put anything on them. So you can literally just pick and eat if you want. She has 3 rows to wind through.
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Duluth's Park Point gets really warm in July. Sandy beaches with shallow water. The rest of the lake will induce hypothermia. LOL
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
ineedsnow replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
No it doesn't its back for a couple days then comes back down that weekend -
93L – “Inactive” Season Posting Check-In
WxWatcher007 replied to BarryStantonGBP's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Not looking nearly as organized as yesterday -
Good lord they look like they are on steroids! What a harvest!
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1.92" at the TH co-op. CoCoRahs in town showing 2.85" n 2.55", so within a mile of each other some decent differences. ENE low level flow really helped with the lifting along the ridge, then it spread out around my area. Kept it raining really well. Really needed this, as we have been falling behind in precip. Rain returned this morning. Been steady with temps cast to be around 60. Could see another inch. Very cool, wet day. Feels like Fall.
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Went up and borrowed my pups for a walk at 6 am on the NCR trail in Monkton. It was...heinous out in terms of humidity. Absolutely awful. AGAIN.
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That's one category of the weather (low temperatures) I'd like not to be leading in. Anyway back to are glorious summer!
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If this muggy weather has done any good it is for the blackberries. Got back just before the sun started peaking out. We were told pick as much as you want. And wow we did. There were some we could not get to unless we wanted to get into the thick of it.
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
bluewave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
The heat index is fine for general purposes of how it actually feels out since it’s what the air temperature combined the dew point feels like. But the issue is that it’s based on the conditions in the shade. The WBGT takes into account what it feels like in the direct sunlight. So the threshold temperature for the WBGT action to reduce activities is much lower closer to 90° instead of the 100°+ for heat index. Winds and clouds are also taken into account with WGBT. So in reality it may be dangerous for certain outdoor activities at lower temperatures than what the heat index says in the sun on a clear day. So even if there isn’t an official heat advisory, the WBGT could recommend reduced outdoor activities. -
2025 Spring/Summer Mountain Thread
BlueRidgeFolklore replied to Maggie Valley Steve's topic in Southeastern States
Definitely. Woke up to a hellacious storm in Henderson this morning. -
Been watching the weather where our daughter is in Utah and it sounds glorious. Right now it's 73 with a DP of 50. Tomorrow she returns home to eastern NC
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
HoarfrostHubb replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
It was foggy here when I took the dog out at 5:30AM. Cleared out quickly. One of those glorious hot July days. -
all the worst people are miserable today <3
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You'll definitely beat me in that derby!
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12z HRRR blows up robust convection for the DC/Baltimore corridor especially in the 0-2z timeframe. PWATS near 2 inches in parts of the area...would think flooding risk with this activity - even if not super slow moving. Creek near the house rose to around 8ft during the other night's heavy rainfall. Highest in the past few years.
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
Sundog replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I personally don't look at the heat index, I just go by the dewpoint number. I already know exactly how every dewpoint temperature feels to me, so I know what to expect. I also take into account if it's cloudy, if it's really breezy, etc.