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Minor temp differences are exaggerated on your maps…

After lots of clippers and moose fart upslope events that drop coatings everywhere that isn’t on the mountain spine, a lot of us will roll the dice for some meatier events that carry a cutter risk. Esp going into heart of coldest climo.

I actually like the WAR location there. We had that frequently for a few years in the 2016-2018 timeframe which brought some storms back from the dead that were out to sea. The one worry is the epo ridge retrogrades west with time which can introduce more cutter potential.

Yeah this next 5-7 days is definitely gonna be above average temp wise for a large majority of the lower 48 outside of the west coast. It could be record highs in some areas from the looks of it. As John mentioned earlier it’s gonna be another huge weekend for the snow lovers in California!! As for us in the Tennessee Valley I do think we’re headed in the right direction based off what we’re seeing in long term guidance, we’ve just gotta get through a warm week to get there!

My car wasn’t topped last night. We’re due!! 24F

Low of 19. Solid winter days here before we warm up for a bit.

A little snow

Well, as it turned out again using GSP, El Niño ph 6 near or inside the circle in Jan turns out to avg cold just like La Niña inside Jan ph 6: Phase 6 during Nino Jan 77 6-9, 11-13: -7, -4, -11, -7, -20, -15, -13 (-11 W) 78 4: -6 (-6 W) 80 31: -13 (-13 W) 83 10-1: +1, +3 (+2 W) 92 3-8: +10, +13, +8, +6, +2, +1 (+7 W) 95 28-30: +1, -6, -7 (-4 W) 98 1-3, 21-2: -12, 0, +6, -3, -3 (-2 M)(-3 W) 03 10-12, 23-5: +5, -6, -10, -16, -19, -10 (-4 M)(-15 W) 05 9-19, 31: +10, +11, +11, +18, +22, +7, -1, -2, -13, -15, -14, -1 (+3 M)(-1 M) 07 9-13, 15-6, 24, 26-31: -1, -3, -4, +5, +16, +21, +5, -3, -5, +5, -2, -15, -2, -12 (+6 M)(-5 W) 10 20-1: +15, +3 (+9 M) 15 9-14, 28-31: -8, -11, -10, -1, -1, -4, -3, -2, 0, -4 (-6 S)(-2 W) 19 2-3, 25-30: +10, +11, -4, -5, -3, +1, -3, -9 (+11 S)(-4 S) 24 24-7: +6, +17, +21, +12 (+14 S) So, there were 20 Nino Jan ph 6 periods: 10 W: 3 MB, 4 B, 2 N, 1 A; avg -158/36 = -4.4 for weak! 6 M: 1 B, 2 N, 2 A, 1 MA avg +43/27 = +1.2 for moderate 4 S: 2 B, 2 MA +19/18 = +1 for strong 81 days BN 39 NN 16 AN 26 -66 cumulative or -1/day overall but cold concentrated when near/inside circle (-4 there vs +1 outside) similar to La Niña! For La Niña, it was overall -2/day with it averaging -5/day near/inside circle and +1 outside. So, the BAMwx idea of a cold E US during ph 6 in Jan in -AAM works out only for weak/mainly inside the circle and Nino is similar.

It is reminiscent of a couple of winters ago when the ensembles and operationals kept showing the MJO going through phases 8-1-2 at high amplitude in the long range over and over again for months….it never happened. I believe it was the 2023-24 winter

Lol…good one Go Kart. For a half inch..I’ll pass on this one.

Possible sleet earlier this morning pinging on the windows. Drizzle and 39.

It’s not a bad look though for us , any colder down south on that look and we’d be cold and dry, we need some SE ridge to get some action.

Where is WinterWolf and what have you done with him?

Better west coast ridging across the board last night. That made a world of difference on the outlook for cold on the east coast. Let’s see if we can keep the positive trends going.

Please…I hope nothing falls here tonight. Washed the truck yesterday, and don’t need any more slop for a week now with the thaw coming. We reshuffle for after the 11th-12th.

As we look ahead to Jan, here’s the wrap for Dec MJO: the last 12 days (12/20-31), which covered the torch period, turned out to track in 7-6-4-3-5, not well predicted by the models and which is typically not a cold path and can easily be mild: The coldest day of the month in the E US was during phase 8 and phase 8 overall was the typical cold. It never was able to get into 1 and instead took a detour across eventually to 5! Nothing even close to that had been predicted. Remember all of those endless ph 8 progs?

As we look ahead to Jan, here’s the wrap for Dec MJO: the last 12 days (12/20-31), which covered the torch period, turned out to track in 7-6-4-3-5, not well predicted by the models and which is typically not a cold path and can easily be mild: The coldest day of the month in the E US was during phase 8 and phase 8 overall was the typical cold. It never was able to get into 1 and instead took a detour across eventually to 5! Nothing even close to that had been predicted. Remember all of those endless ph 8 progs?

I think some Nina winters are just a struggle to get precip. I think I noted in for my winter ideas (back in June) that fall should be dry. IMBY, we have done ok. West of me....not so much. Some Nina patterns can be the exact opposite of dry. There is a bank of analogs which brings flooding rains after fall and into spring and the next summer. I would expect, especially w/ Nino incoming over the summer, that the drought situation should moderate by late summer at the latest. Modeling has been generally honking that we should see increased moisture over the next two months, but I am not holding my breath as it "appears" they are struggling to handle even the EPO ridge at almost short range.

The reason for these Chi coldest of run posts is because of it being a source region since a lot of SE cold travels from that area. It’s extremely hard for the SE to get colder than Chi (outside of mtns) as the air traveling from there modifies as it comes SE and even more w/o snowcover.Whereas the 0Z GFS suite stayed the same (quite mild) as the 12Z despite the Euro suite getting sig. colder post Jan 6th, the 6Z GFS suite did trend a notable amount colder even though it’s still mainly mild (normal lows upper teens) (ens means are the most important that far out) Coldest post Jan 6th of GFS/GEFS:12Z +30/+250Z +29/+256Z +21/+21

When I was up around 5:30 to let the dog out, we had some flakes. might be all we get this upcoming week

Looks to be a wintry looking day. Clouds and temps in the 20s and low 30s. Maybe a couple snow showers overnight? Dusting? Car topper? 23F

I was thinking the 6z GFS wasn't too far off from a similar soultion: A little progressive, but it is the GFS. Might be worth my time to look at individual ensemble members.

Heavy, heavy traces

I think you and Will are rock star caliber. I have over 15 years on this board and I think you two are about the best in this forum. Wiz is following right in your footsteps and for two someones who technically aren't mets Steve and Ray know SNE weather like the back of their hands and are rarely wrong. It really is a privilege to belong to this forum. I have been fascinated by weather since I was a kid but I just didn't have the accumen for the math and science.

Teeny weenie grab. AIT, it’s meh.