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Good work Hoss, keep at it.

It’s barely waffled the last few days either. Definitely N trend but not large shifts run to run. Definitely has been the most consistent at least. It was money last weekend.

Is the amplification currently being shown something that can be overstated in a Niña year on modeling?

latest discussion from WPC: Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 405 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 00Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 00Z Sun Jan 25 2026 ***Major Winter Storm To Bring Significant Impacts To The South Friday Through This Weekend, Expanding Up The East Coast Saturday Night Into Sunday*** ...Southern Rockies, Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Mid-South, Southern & Central Appalachians, & Mid-Atlantic... Days 2-3... The ingredients for the impending major winter storm begin to take shape Thursday night. A broad upper trough located off Baja California will work in tandem with a ridge axis near Mexico to direct a rich plume of tropical East Pacific moisture into the Southern Rockies and Plains. At the same time, an arctic front ushers in the coldest temperatures this season across the Great Plains with a highly anomalous dome of arctic high pressure building in over the North Central U.S.. As high pressure rushes south, easterly upslope flow induced between the high pressure to the north and lower pressure near California will cause upslope flow into the higher terrain of the CO and NM Rockies with lighter snowfall in the central High Plains. WPC probabilities show high chances (>70%) for snowfall above 9,000ft in the CO/NM Rockies through Saturday afternoon. Precipitation will blossom over much of KS, OK, and TX Friday, starting as rain across much of TX initially, but look for precipitation to transition to snow over KS, northern OK, and the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon and evening. Farther south, strengthening low- level WAA will over-run the incoming sub-freezing layer in the lowest 2,000ft of the atmosphere from West Texas to as far east as the Mid-South. Sleet will become more prevalent over the Red River Valley, north-central AR, and into western TN, while freezing rain is the primary preip type from the TX Hill Country through the ArkLaTex and as far east as the TN Valley. Heavy sleet is possible in some of these areas with multiple inches of sleet possible through Saturday. The slow progression of the upper trough over Baja California and the bitterly cold arctic air-mass anchored over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS is a recipe ripe for prolonged freezing rain from central TX to as far east as the southern Appalachians through 00Z Sunday. WPC probabilities show concerningly high probabilities (50-70%) for ice accumulations through 00Z Sunday over one-quarter inch. The areas of greatest concern are over the ArkLaTx, southern AR, northern LA, northern MS/AL, and southern TN where low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) exist for over one-half inch of ice. While this discussion is geared to the short term (ending 00Z Sunday) the ice in all these areas are forecast to continue through Saturday night and even into Sunday. There is great concern for extensive tree damage and power outages from central TX on east through the Mid-South and into the Southern Appalachians into Sunday. Farther north, the air-mass through the depth of the atmospheric column remains cold enough to support all snow from the Central Plains on east through the Ozarks and across northern TN and much of KY beginning Friday evening in the Plains, then into the TN/OH Valleys Saturday morning. By midday and into Saturday afternoon, periods of snow will reach the southern and central Appalachians and potentially the VA/NC Piedmont. Snowfall rates topping 1"/hr are likely in areas just north of the strongest 850-700mb FGEN zone and vertical velocities are highest in a highly saturated dendritic growth zone in the Central Plains and OH Valley. The very cold temperatures over KS on east through MS and into the OH Valley will cause SLRs to range anywhere from between 12-18:1 with the higher SLRs over KS. WPC probabilities through 00Z Sunday depict high chances (>70%) for >4" of snow over central and southern KS, much of northern OK, the TX Panhandle, and into the Ozarks of northern AR and southern MO. The best chances for >8" of snowfall reside over the Ozarks where moderate chance probabilities (40-60%) are present. Similar to the ice, the snow will by no means be over given the extensive plume of anomalous moisture emanating out of the East Pacific. By Saturday night, southerly flow out of the Gulf will continue to direct copious amounts of moisture into the eastern U.S., resulting in a highly disruptive and dangerous winter storm from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic. WPC continues to issue Key Messages for this winter storm and a link to them can be found below.

Just to rain on the parade a bit, The AI GFS and GEFS went slightly the other way at H5. Lots of members in both camps though so we track on.

When looking at the 00z runs tonight, pay attention to the difference in both waves out west between 0 hr in the new run vs 6 hr forecast in the previous run. That might give us clues IF there are any differences that stand out.

Just noticed this post now. I've had a cabin in Thornton for 15 years now. I love it up there. Not ideal for huge snow because it gets shadowed, but still averages in the upper 80-90". I chose my location based on proximity to my house in Lowell. I wanted a place I could get far enough north but within 90 minutes. You pay the NH real estate taxes which suck, but I suck it up for convenience. I also do a decent amount of skiing, so it's almost perfectly situated from many choices. I can get to WV, Loon, Cannon, Tenney within 30 mintes, and about 50 minutes to BW, not to mention our own little hill Campton Mountain less than a mile away where I taught my kids to ski. So it's also convenient to plenty of hikes. I also pay extra to be in a community with amenities like a rec center with pool, pond, gym etc.. Not for everyone, but it fit my family well. Let me know if you need any add'l info or to put you in touch with a real estate agent?

Those two Februaries, 2007 and 2015, were extremely cold (especially 2015) around here. The two coldest of that month in the 25 years I've lived in the area. In 2007 we just missed a big snow for the Valentine's Day event but did get like 3" sleet that froze solid. We also had a couple of other decent more minor events along with the cold. In Feb. 2015, we scored better with snow relatively speaking. If we get something on the order of those two, it could be quite a time here!

Need to run that map again at 120 hr to capture the backside snows for Hampton Roads

GFS doing that one last hope of more snow/sleet before the rug gets pulled entirely.

I think it is time to start 5 posting

Ukie only goes out to 66 hrs so here is comparison to 12z

GEFS trended better op tossed

Absolutely brother!

Try being a reddit mod.

As much as I'd love a total snow storm. This is screaming sleet and freezing rain.

GEFS says hold up! More amped and has more mixing

GFS definitely south. Think that’s the first model run all day I’ve seen with the LV with less than 10in

Should be around 6:15pm I believe but 12z was delayed so who knows.

Came here to say this. The Euro is dead to me.

We’re gonna reel this one back in. I feel it. Can you feel it too?

No bueno

Pretty sure sheared out is off the table here