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I think this was you?? Have the link?

The 12z GFS is off the rails....at 200 it managed to send a storm from West Yellowstone, Montana, to San Francisco, California. I kid you not. Just look at the surface maps, the 500 sort maps, or the 500 anomaly map. Insanity. I mean could it happen? I guess. Is it likely. Nope. Toss the entire run. But let's play "I'll take the ICON at 180 hours for $200"....it manages to phase the bottom three x's and was on its way to the fourth(northerly).

Wondering if he is using something like chat GPT to generate his posts. Most of them seem to poorly reflect something or other that has been posted previously in this thread and to change subtly over time. Either way, the outcome is a synthesis of nonsense.

Cmc coming in hot with a coastal

Who was it in here that developed the site that computes daily index values? I forgot to bookmark that...

Maybe this will be its 2006 JMA moment

Keep an eye on 12z cmc, this looks like it might try to do something .

Sneaky ice storm for some this weekend?

It's so time consuming...which prohibitive for someone like me who spends an inordinately excessive amount of time on it as is. There is someone in the ENSO thread who has a site that computes daily values...forget who...

Just gunna post. Nice step toward something bigger and better.

Pretty decent agreement between ICON, GFS, and CMC of some vorts flying around the *could* get us a coastal storm. The problem is coming outta our torch there isn't much cold around.

GFS at 12z looks...different

Same here. There’s just not enough cold air to work with unless we get some sort of mega wedge as we work into the medium range. You can see in the 12z guidance already that our PNA is looking a bit better and we get a train of energy coming down out of the Rockies. It’s usually never the first storm here anyways - always the second and third you have to watch.

Still hanging on here but south facing areas bare...

6z would be a long weekend for many..... dont look at nooner. missed the phase and a big nothinburger. Just one run, but still has a good look.

GGEM doesn’t quite get it to happen, but some snow for our region late next week. Particularly N/W areas. Sloppy phase as guidance keeps showing.

Have to agree... hopefully we're wrong, but experience shows... The Denver Post this AM has some predictions that had me laughing out loud, along the lines of "Tonight, there's a 100% chance of darkness." Copied/pasted: 1 to 11 inches in Aurora, Golden, Lakewood and Littleton 1 to 12 inches in Centennial 1 to 13 inches in Parker and Castle Rock

58.8 in NW DC. Feels like the warmth is over performing. Suns out.

Yeah I have noticed you do that, which is great. Obviously it is a major PITA to really do which sucks. Like I've always said, I wish I was skilled enough to take the daily values provided by the CPC for NAO, AO, PNA and create a rolling bi-weekly index. I'm sure this could easily be done in like Excel but it's not as easy as just taking the daily values, adding, and doing an average. There's way more to it...like if you take the daily values for a particular month and divide by the number of days...the value won't match what the monthly index value is.

A very icy morning here, now it’s snowing and coming down hard.

I'm also thinking the storm around the 15th is more of a Northeast threat and sets the stage for more southerly storm tracks

fwiw, 6z GFS makes your wish come true. Verbatim a true miller A and a CTP shellackin. Funny that 12z loses it, as the NS/SS phase is late, but still has a decent look to it. As has been stated a plenty, after the few day warmup/thaw, we should be back to "storms and rumors of storms". I love that catchphrase.

...aaaaaaaaannnnd poof! She gone! LOL!

CMC looks like it's setting up something beyond day 7 GFS cooked up something but too late into the Maritimes, closer to day 9