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@WVclimo@Bubbler86 @87storms @paxpatriot Saturday night will be a blast watching the radar blow up just east of us

I am going to sue weatherbell....why am im paying this money for a models that are delayed

Love the euro for MBY

Are there specific years in CT where December was wire to wire snowy?

Pivotal not as generous to everyone.

It's been 5 of the past 6 winters with La Nina's I believe. The one strong El Nino was a terrible winter for snow lovers too.

As long as it’s within 25-50 miles from us ya I’ll keep an eye on it cause we all know how much shifting can go on lately inside 2 days. Basically it’s Nam/rgem/ukmet on north train, euro in the middle and gfs on south train.

The rmm plots only give us part of the picture. I tend to use rmm plots in conjunction with hollmover plots to see where the forcing is the strongest and most dominant. For example, if forcing is strong at 8, but also weak at 5/6, the rmm plot might show weak amplitude in 7/8.

My yard a mess after these gusts. Weather station tripod blew over!

I would feel hopeful for CT, RI and se MA, but I don't see how this ends up anything appreciable up here, at this point...then we can get back to our regularly scheduled program of me being 3 miles too far to the south.

That's Chill's old house.

Euro looks like a solid 2 to 3 inches for a lot of the area. I'm starting to get excited -- this is looking like a decent advisory-level event. We really need to cash in with this one before we flip to a milder pattern late next week. It's nice that the snow will stay on the ground with very little melting for a few days.

That doesn’t cause high ratios. You want temps between -12 and -18C in the clouds where snowflakes are made which promotes good snow growth, and plenty of moisture/lift in that layer. If temps are higher or lower it will hurt ratios. I remember a few times temps were in the low 20s or even teens but we had tiny sand or needle flakes that were 10-1 ratio.

We have 2 things that have to go nearly perfectly with this storm: 1. The storm needs to develop in time and not shift north 2. We have marginal surface temps with little margin for error Hopefully we get lucky but its thread the needle

Euro has been largely consistent in showing a general 2-4" for much of the Philly metro the past few runs with upwards of 5" in localized spots. Berks, Lehigh, Northampton probably 1-3" but this is one of those setups where you can get a strong fronto band on the NW side of the precip shield as the upper level jet shifts towards the area under the favorable right entrance region. I think the precip shield would actually expand a bit further northwest than what the Euro shows with isentropic glide along the frontal boundary as the TPV drops in from the south. However, that same TPV is pushing everything along and out to sea so it's a fine balance between the flow buckling and getting that precip shield to expand vs everything shunted east.

Well, a second interpretation of the fact that most recent years are below trend is that the trendline isn't capturing all of the variation and there may have been a recent acceleration.

These days, the blog ends up dropped into the toilet, after ma nature defecates on our collective grapes.

The 12z Euro 2” for NYC would be a nice little event.

most exciting weather upcoming will be the landslides in the PAC NW next week

Seeing a strong Ukie, I thought the euro would follow

Euro didn’t even look that different from other guidance. It was a little skimpier on QPF down near Cape but honestly, when is it not? GFS trended NW but it’s actually still a considerably worse outcome than the Euro. Euro has been a bit too far south on multiple systems so far so it doesn’t take a lot of mental gymnastics to think this could verify a little more favorable than it’s currently depicting. I’d like to see GFS keep bumping NW though.

I’d give it to 00z. Will only take a bump to make it a little better, we’re pretty close now. Not really expecting any moves

I love Eric from snowy Maine piling on like a cheerleader with the "100" emoji

We are in the game...but it's hard to get excited at all when the margin for error is so thin. Which has been true of most of our threats lately which is why I've not been to active tracking things until inside 48 hours.