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Lets fuse Ditty’s eyelids open so he has to stay up for the overnight runs…

I guess that's exactly what I do, just try and analyze differences run to run. Where I guess I break down is understanding why models show what they do and recognizing, for example, synoptic setups conducive to constructive phasing in a general sense. In this case, I can look at 500mb geo height maps all day and see where different pieces of energy are coming from. Looks like shit from the Pacific (?) and some crap riding down the rockies (?) could conceptually come together, but the setup is otherwise seemingly too progressive (?) Now, there's still a moderate HP center out in front of this, but obviously its impact is much less than in our last system where iirc heights kept building slightly over canada with every run instead of trending the opposite way (?) Obviously this is a major oversimplification but that's the point I suppose - I wish I knew how Again, I am not trying to equate this system with the last let alone say I have any hopes for it. It's just the next upcoming case study.

I don't know what everyone's written overnight but this is gonna have to be a positive bust at this point. Otherwise it's a saga about a signal verifying, a storm will resulting, and we (winter enthusiasts) get porked. Done deal. It just is what it is... It's still odd that the whole bundle/wave space is taking such a parabolic motion and won't obey ( apparently) convention, but .. these things don't always fit into the text book in this business. Anomalies, relative to (as in within) ongoing anomalies, due also happen. There's a logic to it ..it may need reanalysis and whatever but ... I would still strongly suggest the the background speed soaked flow is playing around with and stressing standard models into behaving in odd ways.

Not sure I'd agree. It already has an inch (or more) over most of the area by 7AM Saturday...

He has always had a very poor grasp of SOMD climo, which is usually obvious when viewing his forecast maps. I interacted with him once on here many years ago and got called the r-word. I've seen him use racist language towards posters as well. One of the few people I put on ignore.

It's really just a correction to reality as we get closer to the system. It matches up better now with the med range models.

Unless we zero out entirely

More of a neg tilt earlier? .

Not sure what is official, but I round to the even number.

This why you don't pay attention to the HRRR or RAP at this range. It just corrected its 5h about 300 miles west. Which makes sense to align with the EURO/GFS. But still....

EPS 24hr qpf valid Monday 18z Euro Op

HRRR way out in fantasy land is pretty dry. Hope that isn't a trend today in the models.

With the ridge out west and confluence laid over SE Canada the main shortwave has no choice but to slowly dig

No it has nothing to do with surface features. The upper levels just aren't quite supportive of a significant coastal impact. The 500mb heights on Friday from the Atlantic south of Nova Scotia directly west to the NY/PA border are too low. There is too much suppression. That forces the ULL all the way down to Savannah Ga and there's not enough time to develop ridging in NY State and recover the baroclinic zone closer to the coast. An area of low surface pressure responds to the upper level divergence, forming and tracking well offshore.

I remember when Forky said during warm spells there would never be BN months again. We are beating old normals too.

Only -6 here, no fake cold (light snow)

I feel pretty good when normally conserative GSP has maps like this out and this is only through 7am Sunday

12Z HRRR came in bone dry. But it's not time to look at that yet.

And the cheese stands alone. The 6Z EPS ensemble mean is the last model of any I know of (to be fair I didn't check the Tanzanian - that's an inside joke on the weather boards) to still show appreciable snow inland from the coast (due to a few western hits) and just about all other models aren't even showing snow at the coast anymore (not counting Montauk). The CMC and GFS ensembles have finally thrown in the towel also. Yes, we're still 3+ days out so it's still possible for significant shifts west, but that's not the way to bet, especially in the time of AI models, which I don't recall making big shifts inside 3 days (but could be wrong on that).

5°. Station in Darlington hit -1°

35.5 here-we wont get every storm. We've had 4 big events and it's only the end of January. I'll take that any day

DT has been bad for a long time but that may be the worst snow map I have ever seen

My forecasting approach was developed from working at the NWS, and as such, I tend to engage in a more cautious and incremental process. That said, I will go ahead and mention that the probabilities are increasing for the potential of blizzard conditions along portions of the NC and SE Virginia coastal areas.

Respectfully disagree, the Feb 6th period is gaining a lot of traction over night. Euro Ai, ensemble, etc etc, shortwave gets trapped between ridge out west and some leftover confluence. Reminds me of Feb 4-5 95 for some reason

-1.5 in Sparta before I left for work. I got all the way to -13 on the car driving through the low flat spots in Lafayette which are plentiful on the north end of town toward Rosses Corner. Random nerd land question. What's the "official" meteorological protocol for rounding off the negative numbers? +1.5 would round to 2. But what about -1.5? Typically five and above rounds up, which would actually mean -1. Are they rounding based on stated value or absolute value? My home weather station seems to prefer the first method. I noticed early this morning -0.5 was rounding off to a low of 0, but as soon as it clicked to -0.6, it began reporting the low as -1, so I am curious.