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Misty this morning. Last regular season game for fall softball tonight. Methinks I won’t be playing but guess we shall see

GOAK trough. We mild.

It is?

If the pattern we will have Oct 17-24 this week could repeat in dec-feb we would be buried in snow on the coast.

Some of the models clear NJ out enough this afternoon for another run at 80°. Would serve to enhance the instability ahead of the severe storm potential later today. Frost vs first freeze for Sunday morning at the usual cool spots will be contingent on whether the winds can go calm for radiational cooling under the big high.

Screaming west to east PAC jet . Welcome to the start of a massive Nino. It’s here

Embrace disappearing winters

You are handwaving. The number and intensity of climate-related disasters is increasing.

Misty morning coming to work. Decent line of heavy rain in NW nj.

The increased economic damage is due to the huge increase in building on the coasts, in particular of luxury properties. I lived right on the coast in both FL and CA over the past few decades, and have seen in firsthand. Much of it also is due to generally increased economic prosperity (and population increase), and due to inflation. As your economy grows, you're going to have a lot more stuff that can get damaged. Not an indicator of "world death" but actually the opposite in fact. Re: European heat wave Much of that could have been prevented if a lot more people had air conditioning, as they do in places like the US.

Yeah, starting to see the SW CONUS trough develop in response to the forcing extending into that area from the EPAC.

this is part of the frustration - focusing on minutia to distract from the elephant

54/51 with showers around, looks like a heavier band heading toward the valley

US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites · · 10/16/2026 @ 5:15am | A strong cold front will bring showers and storms today. Some storms could be strong-to-severe, bringing damaging wind gusts. Be weather-aware today, storms will begin across portions of NW PA early this afternoon and continue moving southeastward throughout the day

Muggy meters into Nov?

Its time for hoodie weather

This is classic, strong east-based/East Pacific (EP) El Niño forcing. And +IOD forcing is starting to show up in the global circulation now too:

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 511 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-034-037-041-042-045-046- 170915- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Somerset-Bedford-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming- 511 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater are possible late this morning through the afternoon hours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Cold temperatures will bring about frost and freeze concerns Saturday night and Sunday night. The highest potential for frost and freeze will be Saturday night into Sunday morning where temperatures could drop into the upper 20s. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. $$ Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 511 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 PAZ026>028-035-036-049>053-056>059-063>066-170915- Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- 511 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater are possible this afternoon and evening. An isolated tornado is also possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.