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All rain here high today 39f picked up 0.27" of rain. Currently 35f with a 34f dew point. After today's storm I am officially very interested in what the Euro is selling for us on Saturday Night into Sunday.

Tough situation because the euro and the nam are not impossible while on the other hand, the background circumstantial synoptics really support the GFS solution. I’m leaning away from a GFS total flat. Whole system is kind of weak though so should a compromise take place that is still not good enough. In order to be more than just snow in the air we probably would need a NAM solution to be more correct out right

Sometimes it seems hard to envision a sharp weather pattern change when you’re in a totally opposite pattern at the moment. I remember how cold December 2022 was, especially during Christmastime but then we had straight 50s and 60 degrees right through new year. Patterns can flip on a dime, for better or for worse. The cold has been quite enjoyable but we all know it can’t last forever. It would be a bit unreasonable to believe January won’t at least start out warm. Maybe it doesn’t end up that way in the end, but very likely it ends up warm just by the sheer nature of this cold pattern can’t stick around forever

I’m leery of NAM’s fairly dependable NW bias with cyclogen near east coastal ….however that’s tendency. There are circumstances when that can be a good thing - particularly when there’s very intense llv thermal gradient associated with steep frontal slope …elevating into increasing diffluence above. Dec 2005 is an example of that and superior resolution winning the model debate. Not an analog per se… But the higher resolved resolution might find the low level instability axis closer to that gradient, helping to generate intense UVM in that vicinity under which the cyclone generates

If this works out…huge win for them imo. And as you said, it won’t be very long before they surpass the normal models completely.

Could you imagine? RVA getting to its annual average snowfall in the span of only two weeks of meteorological winter, ESPECIALLY in a La Niña, would be insane! .

I’ve been bullish on this since last night. I went to bed happy last night though not for the reason I’d have felt happy 40 years ago…. Also, I’ve been harping about the AI models and how imho they should be weighed highest. They self upgrade continuously and they’ve been around now long intro be taken quite seriously. Once I saw all the AIs on board I bought in.

I feel like it looks like the gfs did last night/this morning. Definitely a more forgiving swath on the 0z rgem but damn. It makes me anxious af counting on precip forming over our heads.

When we say amped…are we just meaning it’s further N and W. Or do we also mean it’s more intense as well?

Icon suddenly blows this thing up, but to Far offshore. I’d definitely consider it a step towards the more impactful models though

Brave. Some might say the bravest statement. Too bad Alex isn’t here to witness your bravery.

that is an amped solution no doubt

For the sake of most in this forum, if Fredericksburg gets half a foot of snow, blood will be shed.

Icon pops a low off the Delmarva. It had nothing earlier. Rgem was trying

Syracuse

I thought it took a positive step over all--actually better than 12z...another step maybe more are happy? My yard is on the edge but firmly so there.

No rgem love? Northern crew looks decent there.

Yes. For VA and Eastern shore

So the ICON isn’t terrible. Nice step

Still seemed like an improvement from 18z though, didn't it?

Icon says go f your self to anyone north of DC Sound familiar?

Clipper Games. Pick your dart and toss it. These coming are true classic Alberta Clippers. The slightest top down ripple can swing these things 50 miles. Gonna be mostly nowcasting, watching where Critical Thickness sets up. It's been awhile thats for sure. In the olden days in Jan and Feb we'd get 4 or 5 across 10 days that would lay 4-6 across the entire Sub lol

The new RRFS handled the temps well with this. Be interesting to see how that model performs this season in places that see frequent marginal setups

Dusting to an inch with tomorrow night's wave for this area. Saturday wave looking like a whiff to 2".

what would you say is "greatness"? 3-5?