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The fact that 1999 was the driest summer, I will always believe that if Floyd never happened, we would have had a continuous, multi-year drought from about spring 1998 through fall 2002.

Overcast 73F/DP 70F Critters are doing late season critter things...

Now did I understand correctly that developing niño summers have more severe weather?

The models have always been inaccurate. They always will be too. In order to have a perfect forecast you need two things: 1. A perfect simulation of every thermodynamic/kinematic process down to the air molecule and 2. Input data of every air molecule and its relevant properties. Now, obviously we will never hit that lofty goal. However, the same principles apply to figuring out why models have improved or stalled/declined in skill. Considering that, and this is a hard fact of reality not up for debate, here is list of soundings ended due to both budget cuts and personal loss at NOAA post doge. Below is quoted from a brookings article. Weather balloon launches were suspendedin Albany, New York, and Gray, Maine. Weather balloon launches were ended in Kotzebue, Alaska. Balloon launches were suspended in Omaha, Nebraska, and Rapid City, South Dakota. Balloon launches were cut from twice daily to once daily in Aberdeen, South Dakota; Grand Junction, Colorado; Green Bay, Wisconsin; Gaylord, Michigan; North Platte, Nebraska; and Riverton, Wyoming. Nearly half of all weather offices are currently missing 20% of their staff. The New York Times reports that some of the weather service’s departments will no longer have weather forecasters working overnight If you cut input data you cut model accuracy. To reiterate, this is not up for debate but the reality we live in. Ask yourself if those actions were done by the “other” political party what would your reaction be? It’s alright to admit that these cuts are a price you paid due to aligning with the admin on its other policies, but it’s not alright to deny the truth of the matter. Final point here. For the 2027 fiscal budget the admin wants to cut NOAA spending another 17-25%. Imagine that. Our forecasters are already overworked, our data collection crumbling, and our main flagship models falling behind peer nations; and the solution is to cut funding. Own up to your politics. Sources: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-politics-is-weakening-americas-weather-service/ https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/18/trump-cuts-ai-weather-prediction-forecasts https://silencingscience.org/actions/noaa-budget-cuts-proposed-for-fy2027/

First 10 days this month were +4.5. Since then we've been a bit BN. That ramp has been pretty flat so far.

Euros been on that too

Looks like my hissyfit had its intended purpose, appears to be dumping pretty hard back home. If we're gonna cut funding to meteorology then they might as well just go all the way and decommission the satellites too. Then we can go back to the old days of weather forecasting based on things like joint pain and caterpillar fur.

What an epic bust

Lol try again

Rain? Full sun.

+2 MTD here and today should pull it down a couple tenths. 3 of the 7 months this year were BN and the 7-month average is right at my norms (June 1998-on). Not much optimism for significant rain this weekend.

HRRR has us getting a robust line of storms after sunset. Mostly dry until then for west of bay.

Yes its too early to attribute warm season patterns to el nino, the coupling shows up better in the fall as the NH cools

Whole thing looks meh with heavy rains E MA and ENY and little in the middle ..with very little storms anywhere tomorrow. More wx boredom

Our last shot at any rain is 3 - 11 pm as the front approaches. After that, my 66% of normal August rainfall shrinks.

We got the record easy. Then we will smoke it with a random December tornado day.

Stein continues tonight

Thanks Chuck! During July in Augusta County, I only received 62% of normal rainfall. During August, I have received 66% of normal thru 8-20.

The drought has really eased for most people expect for @EastCoast NPZ. He sent me a pick of his back yard yesterday

August 22 1910: Daylight is dimmed in Duluth due to smoke from Rocky Mountain forest fires. 1870: Downpours across southern Minnesota produce 5 inches at Sibley, and 3.49 at Ft. Snelling. Much of the wheat crop is damaged. For Saturday, August 22, 2026 1816 - The growing season for corn was cut short as damaging frosts were reported from North Carolina to interior New England. (David Ludlum) 1923 - The temperature at Anchorage, AK, reached 82 degrees, a record for August for the location which was later tied on the 2nd in 1978. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A cold front lowered temperatures 20 to 40 degrees across the north central U.S., and produced severe thunderstorms in Ohio and Lower Michigan. An early morning thunderstorm near Sydney MI produced high winds which spun a car around 180 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Afternoon highs of 88 degrees at Astoria, OR, and 104 degrees at Medford, OR, were records for the date, and the number of daily record highs across the nation since the first of June topped the 2000 mark. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Evening thunderstorms in the central U.S. produced golf ball size hail at May City IA, and wind gusts to 66 mph at Balltown IA. Lightning struck a barn in Fayette County IA killing 750 hogs. Evening thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Havre. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992 - Hurricane Andrew makes landfall in Southern Florida as a Category 5 storm with wind guests estimated in excess of 175 m.p.h. Estimated damages exceeded $20 billion, more than 60 people were killed and approximately 2 million people were evacuated from their homes. (University of Illinois WW2010) Observances: 22 Sat National Tooth Fairy Day 22 Sat World Plant Milk Day 22 Sat Be An Angel Day 22 Sat Folklore Day 22 Sat International Day Commemorating the Victims of Acts of Violence Based on Religion or Belief 22 Sat National Bao Day 22 Sat National Surgical Oncologist Day 22 Sat National Take Your Cat to the Vet Day 22 Sat Never Bean Better Day 22 Sat Rainbow Baby Day 22 Sat National Pecan Torte Day

What's everyone complaining about, pouring 0.82"

I believe that is were the NAM having the line set yesterday or close to it.

That's training too. Probably a couple inches in some places if it holds together.

Two confirmed tornados, with the eastern York one being an EF2 and Columbia EF1. What a day. Public Information Statement National Weather Service State College PA 915 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...NWS Damage Survey for 08/20/2026 Tornado Event... ..Eastern York County Tornado... Rating: EF2 Estimated Peak Wind: 120 mph Path Length /statute/: 1.07 miles Path Width /maximum/: 100 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 1 Start Date: 08/20/2026 Start Time: 04:24 PM EDT Start Location: 2 SSW Wrightsville / York County / PA Start Lat/Lon: 39.9994 / -76.5521 End Date: 08/20/2026 End Time: 04:26 PM EDT End Location: 2 SSE Wrightsville / York County / PA End Lat/Lon: 39.9975 / -76.5323 Survey Summary: An EF-2 tornado impacted eastern York County during the afternoon of August 20, 2026. Maximum wind speeds were estimated to be 120 mph and the tornado had a maximum path width of 100 yards. Damage was first noted near the end of Vista Lane near Wrightsville where approximately 5 trees were snapped. Sporadic tree damage was noted along the tornado's track as it continued towards Picturesque Drive. The most significant damage occurred at Eastern York High School where the roof was fully ripped off of multiple classrooms. There was also significant damage to the school's auditorium, with the roof partially ripped off and bricks at the top of the wall shifted from their original location. The tornado continued eastward along Winding Way, where multiple homes sustained damage to windows and siding. One injury was reported as a result of a window being blown into a house. The tornado knocked down crops in a field to the east of these houses, before lifting prior to reaching Chateau Circle. We would like to thank York County Emergency Management and local homeowners for their assistance in this damage survey. .. Columbia Tornado... Rating: EF1 Estimated Peak Wind: 100 mph Path Length /statute/: 1.47 miles Path Width /maximum/: 100 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: 08/20/2026 Start Time: 04:30 PM EDT Start Location: Columbia / Lancaster County / PA Start Lat/Lon: 40.0343 / -76.5015 End Date: 08/20/2026 End Time: 04:32 PM EDT End Location: 1 SE Columbia / Lancaster County / PA End Lat/Lon: 40.018 / -76.4838 Survey Summary: On August 20, 2026 at approximately 4:30 p.m. EDT, an EF-1 tornado impacted Columbia, PA. Maximum windspeeds were estimated at 100 mph with a maximum path width of 100 yards. The damage path began on the block where Walnut Street meets 4th Street. Damage was done to an old firehouse where a section of the second story brick wall was knocked down onto Avenue H and a neighboring store. The firehouse roof and another adjacent roof were torn off and lying nearby. The tornado continued southeast through town where a couple small outbuildings were collapsed near Avenue K. Damage continued down Malt Avenue with many tree limbs snapped and minor damage to roofs. The tornado then crossed the Columbia Reading Railway snapping some large trees along Manor Street and Furnace Avenue. It continued into the wooded area south of town and across Blue Lane where many trees were found uprooted and snapped. The tornado then lifted prior to reaching Richland Drive. We would like to thank Lancaster County Emergency Management, the Columbia Borough Police Department, and students from Millersville University for their assistance in this damage survey.