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not great on that obvious bad call though. Their bats better wake up lol.

I'm likely getting a "storm day" off of work tomorrow. Grayling may be taking it hard again in the ice storm dept. Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1051 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1040 PM Freezing Rain Houghton Lake 44.30N 84.76W 03/15/2026 U0.00 Inch Roscommon MI Amateur Radio Trees and large limbs are being downed by ice.

USA into the finals of the World Baseball Classic!!!

Mesoscale Discussion 0256 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Areas affected...far northwestern Alabama and south central Middle Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 59... Valid 160302Z - 160430Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 59 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado risk increasing. DISCUSSION...A discrete supercell has shown persistent rotation and strengthening over the last 30-45 minutes near the TN/AL state line. A second cell has also shown persistent rotation to the north of to the north of the TN state line. This is on the southern end of a cluster of cells ahead of the main squall line back to the west on the edge of the 60 F dew points. Within this region, STP around 2 is analyzed in surface objective analysis, with VAD profiles from KBNA and KGWX showing large low-level curvature in hodographs. This corridor will pose a relatively higher risk for tornadoes over the next 1-2 hours given the favorable shear and thermodynamic environment.

It will be interesting to see if RONI vs ONI makes a difference this season, because RONI will be ~-0.5c vs ONI. That difference in Moderate Nino range is historically about 2 NS/yr 2023 was +1.1c RONI (ASO), and +1.6c ONI and that season had 20 Named Storms, and slightly above average ACE. (SSTAs in the Atlantic so far this year are nothing close to 2023).

nice severe KY/TN

Still a few natural patches here, but sadly will be gone as well.

MKE recorded a 60 MPH gust, and looks like it's already transitioned to snow ahead of schedule.

Wind absolutely howling this evening. Fun 24 hours ahead no doubt. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Hrrr like Beaver Co thru Cranberry

The 900 people who live in Onaway Michigan are getting snowfall rates I can only dream of

Flipped to ice pellets here a bit ago. Probably 0.1” of accumulation or so.

I'd say yes to the 3+ question. Stations in NMI use number of days with 6+ as their standard. The nearest station reporting such is about 20 miles due east of me. All NMI stations are AN season to date, even non-LES locales such as my own. Big storms (warning level) and deep snow are my key winter likes. Deep cold that may excite you and others, I actually deduct points for, lol. Lake has been iced since early December. I haven't had a daily high at or below freezing since March 1st yet somehow I have solid snow cover here from back to back storms. Meanwhile, DTW hit 70F today. It's pretty wild.

Kids get off early for probably nothing. Even better than a busted snow/ice that turns out to be rain haha

DC schools just caved. Early dismissal.

Take shelter!

I drove home from northern Maine towing a snowmobile trailer yesterday. We delayed leaving Presque Isle due to poor road conditions and wind. Finally got on the road around 2:00. Everything was smooth sailing all the way through Bangor so I decided to go through the White Mtns. on Rt. 2. Worked fine all the way to Gorham, NH. At Gorham the wind was absolutely ripping and it was snowing and even though we saw a couple of state trucks coming down the mountain, I knew it was going to be sketchy. And I was correct. The wind was howling and it was near white out conditions. The snow was starting to accumulate on the road and combined with the salt made it pretty slushy. It was a white knuckle drive all the way to Twin Mountain. The road was fine most of the rest of the way until a mini repeat through Groton, Topsham and Orange. Pulling the big trailer in the wind was worse thing. It made me feel like I would get pushed around on the slippery road surface. o was pretty happy to get home.

I also wonder if the fact that most schools likely haven't done their tornado drill for this year played into the decisions at all. Still the safest call either way, but I thought about that earlier today. We haven't done ours yet.

Look out for the heavy showers!

Gonna be a nice light show anyways in our parts

^Well we've had 5/6 recent years La Nina (RONI), and 7/10 recent years La Nina. In 20-21 we were -0.1c away from Strong Nina, so I don't think we are "due". Actually history shows that 4/6+ ENSO-state occurrence flips in the following 3-5 years 2:1

yep - we have seen this movie many times.

if there is an opportunity to call bust or jump ship, we will do it!

Several 60-65mph wind gust reports out in central Iowa over the past hour or so. I-80 closed between Des Moines and Omaha.

Cleared out here.