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Where is your planned hike? I probably will be out and about those same hours taking pictures.

Showers may get COLD lol

Yep. Your body acclimates to the warm climate after so long with your blood thinning. I'll wear sweatpants even when it's in the 80s now, and will be freezing to death when it's in the 50s.

Can't wait for my biggest snowstorm since (checks notes) January 2025.

7" - 10" does seem a bit conservative. Maybe that is based on 10:1 ratios. Most models have at least .7" of precip... so there is upside if we can get better ratios.

Tip of cap to Sacrus for posting the overlay comparisons of the precip/accum maps. Again verbatim - very impactful storm for the metro area coming into agreement.

I can honestly say i'm not sure since I moved to VA in 2011 i've ever seen a dew point map with readings that low. That is incredible.

Correct. Sleet is measured and counted as snow officially. So a snow map would include sleet accumulations

12z hrrr misses me se. Neato. Hoping things can trend back but probably not

Nothing loads for me either I forgot all about his page...his site used to be my go to for soundings back in the day.

This is all I have time for now, but don't think this thread is just for obs. about about the potential for the phenomena above. I'm sure we'll have plenty of other phots as long as we have power.

Alright guys - getting into nowcasting and heavily relying on climo for our regions. Question moving forward today - NAM vs HRRR vs RGEM vs FV3 - What do we like best in terms of verification for different aspects of their model "expertise"? NAM = Best Thermals of Atmosphere 18 hours away from kickoff? RGEM = Location and movement of Lows HRRR = Dewpoints - Those are some of the lowest Dews I have seen for the upstate of SC in a long time - and for the duration once moisture arrives - crazy What's everyone's thought - If we could put together the best high resolution model what would we pick from each, or does anyone feel one of these is truly superior in all aspects?

Really need these HiRes CAMs to get in range. While Globals are great at overall setup over the valley, their resolution is just not sharp enough during ice setups due to the million microclimates in the valley. While the QPF output on the hrrr may not be close to accurate, can definitely get more detailed view of where the cold is being trapped.

Is there a general consensus for start time for RVA? My wife will be driving back from NJ Saturday afternoon. If I recall it looked like start times ranges from 7pm-midnight on most models.

If only there was a world where NWS could label their maps properly.

Yesterday, fountain guy noticed that some of the hi-res CAMs were showing some ice cutting across the eastern Unakas into the Great Eastern Valley of Tennessee. This seemed odd, since normally CAD (Cold Air Damming) events are a meteorological phenomenon of the eastern side of the Apps, when cold arctic highs ooze down the foothills of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and sometimes Georgia. The cold air is shallow however and typically cannot make it overt he Appalachian mountains. Here are some of the images showing the cold air bleeding across the NC and TN border as well as some downslope warming: Dewpoints: Dewpoints really make this evident when set in motion: Here are the relevant topography features. I only put the Nolichukcy and French Broad Valleys on there since they are two of the larger rivers, but the Doe and the Watauga also cut into CAD areas:

Good start to 12Z.

Nah, They can go up instead of going back, Going back is not a good look.

Sleet is considered snow. If you ever look in any nws adv or warning it says expected snow and sleet accumulations as a whole

Half the public still thinks we are getting a snow storm locally...

I don't think I'll need to!

Most models going sleet to freezing rain Euro 0.30-0.40” liquid at 24-27f in Se Pa is very concerning power outages. my hope we shove the cold south at 12z keeping all layers cold enough for snow and sleet the alternative of Frz Rain is bad news with the pattern behind the storm. I am going 8-12” with 1-2” of sleet to 0.32” Frz for Central Delaware County. See what 12z does it would be very bad to switch to liquid with this scenario my number one concern snow sleet you can deal with.

Correct, my bad