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It's only the Euro that i give that kind of weight to. If it was the GFS, CMC, UK or something stupid like the Icon id hit the ignore button.

March is easy #1 worst weather month of the year outside of 1993 and 2017 and 2014

Gefs fwiw

Yep going the wrong way

We all know that slp placement will determine the final solution. GFS is Hatteras to Ocean City hugging the coast. The EURO and CANADIAN flirt with the coast east of Hatteras then OTS. Way back in the formative equation. The Pacific is hostile. This places the western ridge a little too far east. Instead of an axis at 105 - 110, that axis needs to be back at 115 - 120 which would encourage a coastal solution. Is it too late for a shift? Time is running out......

I think you gotta go with the whiff runs. What's more likely, a huge blizzard or a whiff especially given the seasonal trends. My guess is the next few runs the gfs shifts east. AI models were also east this morning so there's no support of a 6z GFS solution. My forecast would be snow showers at best and a miss. Little to no snowfall

This would be quite the coup by the legacy EURO if it holds on an island and everything caves to it.

We are seeing the same thing. In our hearts we know where it’s headed today lol. The IVT wouldn’t work for the city, NW it could, closer you are to the city though more BL temp issues

Hopefully we jump into April weather in March. March is the only month I can't stand. I miss the bright sunny mornings we had during the nw flow from the arctic. I love that arctic blue sky.

Eps

right

Of course we will lose the gfs. Pointless to look at it at this point. .

Didn't we do this at the same time last year. I'm still waiting on the 40" the gfs gave Annopoils.

Another 12hrs to shake this one out.

“Fun” that we jumped into crappy March weather 2 weeks early

how?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2026021906&fh=102

EURO AI didn't budge the SLP location from 00z, Low 970s very near BM just SE gust like GFS.. Euro is nowhere close to that.. Euro crosses 70W at 997mb at 36 degrees latitude lol while the others are a hair from the BM at 970mb

Both NWS discussions in Boston and Upton say NW trend in the past 24 hours with late weekend storm. Could be medel fluctuation and models should come into better agreement tomorrow.

If that happens it’s on to baseball and cherry blossom!

ticked SE nice mod event back to 91 would get some good banding, potentially major ENE

What a disaster of a morning 12z is going to be ugly as we lose the gfs and Canadian

Most of us would. But it feel like we've been led down this road a few times already this season where the GFS/GEFS go against concensus and move towards something bigger while the other models slowly move to the Euro. Then when we are within 3 days the GFS stubbornly and slowly moves away from the big storm. Im hoping we are not seeing this again here, so I am being cautious with this one.

Slight tick se but still a snowstorm for esne

I need to see GFS and CMC to hold and expand precip shield and 12z AI come NW like 00z or even better, that would give me solid confidence and think that the EURO will eventually cave.. But if AI/GFS/CMC start ticking SE we can expect a blend towards EURO solution.