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Well this was quite the surprise to see https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ Feb/Mar MEI at -1, responses were starting to show in March but I will be curious if Mar/Apr will start to move toward neutral at least. While oceanic response seems to be there atmospherically something is off.

The 5+ is centered pretty far west (140-160 W, which is west central 3.4. Hoping that’s a sign that El Niño will be center to west based like Cansips suggests and not east based like NMME shows.

Outside of Monday, a part of me is inclined to tack on 3-4F to guidance next week (away from the coast). If we get sun we should have no problem mixing. I could see Tuesday end up being warmer than what is advertised and Wednesday does have some potential to be quite mild depending on timing of the system moving through. Nice battle the end of the week with higher heights trying to build in but hitting a wall

They were legit thunderstorms. Was turkey hunting when they went by decent amount of thunder and lightning

It's like Quantum Mechanics sent particles back in time to excoriate you for your arrogant pop off, "we're going to be saying a lot of GWDLs next week."

6z Euro AI goes wild April 27th

Mmm... slow down there,

That would be a giant FU

We'll see how the cuttoff trough establishes

Records: Highs: EWR: 97 (2002) NYC: 96 (2002) LGA: 94 (2002) JFK: 90 (2002) Lows: EWR: 30 (1980) NYC: 27 (1875) LGA: 32 (1980) JFK: 33 (1980) Historical: 1821: The Massachusetts’ legislature could not open due to 18 inches of snow. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1875: The minimum temperature for the date is 26°F in Washington DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1920: Snow fell across Denver, CO continuously for 57 hours; from early morning on the 17th until midday on the 19th. The heavy wet snow totaled 18.2 inches with the greatest accumulation on the ground of a foot. At times winds gusted to near 50 mph creating near blizzard conditions. The strong winds created high drifts halting auto and rail traffic. Many people were stranded. No lives were lost in Denver but several people perished in surrounding districts. Temperatures didn't make it out of the 20s. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1922 — A family of at least six tornadoes caused death and destruction along parts of a 210 mile path from north of Ogden IL to Allen County OH, killing sixteen persons. A post card, picked up in Madison County IN, was found 124 miles away near Mount Cory OH. (The Weather Channel) 1942: West Palm Beach, FL was soaked by 8.35 inches of rain in just two hours. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1953 — One of the few severe hailstorms accompanied by snow, sleet, glaze, and rain, pelted parts of Kay, Osage, Creek, Tulsa, Washington, and Rogers Counties in northeastern Oklahoma late in the day. Nearly 10,000 insurance claims were filed. (The Weather Channel) 1965 — The Mississippi River reached a flood crest at Saint Paul MN four feet higher than any previous mark. During the next two weeks record levels were reached along the Mississippi between Saint Paul and Hannibal MO. Flooding caused more than 100 million dollars damage, but timely warnings kept the death toll down to just twelve persons. (David Ludlum) 1970: After 10 p.m. near Cotton Center, TX, an F4 tornado “smashed flat as a pancake” a pickup; 2 people killed. Up to 6 blocks wide, it later hurt 40, caused $4.5 million damage in Plainview. It was hidden from view by fog, lack of lightning, and little accompanying noise. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1983: Burlington, VT picked up 15.6 inches of snow to set an April record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1984: A spring storm left snow across much of the central portion of Iowa. The greatest concentration of snow was in an 80-mile wide band from Monona County southeast to Des Moines and Knoxville. Four to six inches were common in this band but the greatest amount of 8 inches occurred in Des Moines. Temperatures hovering near the freezing mark prevented large accumulations on the road. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 — Twenty-two cities in the central U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. Temperatures warmed into the 70s and 80s from the High Plains Region to the Mississippi Valley, with readings in the low 90s reported in the Southern Plains Region. Tulsa OK hit 92 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 — Heavy snow blanketed northern Arizona. Snowfall totals ranged up to 16 inches at Pinetop, with 10 inches reported at Flagstaff. Afternoon thunderstorms spawned a couple of tornadoes in Idaho. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 — Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. Missoula MT was blanketed with four inches of snow, and Glasgow MT reported a record cold morning low of 14 degrees above zero. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1990 — High winds in northern Utah, gusting to 90 mph in Weber County, blew a trampoline through a living room window, and strong winds associated with a cold front crossing the Middle Atlantic Coast Region gusted to 75 mph in the Chesapeake Bay area of Virginia. Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the north central U.S. Valentine NE was the cold spot in the nation with a record low of 10 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1994: Record Alaska cold -39°F in Umiat, -32°F in Prudhoe Bay are the coldest ever for so late in the year; +2° in Fairbanks is the coldest so late since 1972. (Bob Ryan's 2000 Almanac) 2002: The heat wave continued across the east as high pressure off the Carolina blocked a frontal boundary across the Plains. Records for the date included: Newark, NJ: 97°, NYC Central Park: 96°, Hartford, CT: 95°, Philadelphia, PA: 95°, Reagan National Airport, DC: 95 (Tied monthly high), Lynchburg, VA: 94°, Atlantic City, NJ: 94, Islip, NY: 94°, Concord, NH: 94°, Norfolk, VA: 93°, Dulles Airport, VA: 93° (April Record), Baltimore (BWI), MD: 93°, Providence, RI: 93°, Boston, MA: 93°, Salisbury, MD: 92°, Wallops Island, VA: 91°, Harrisburg, VA: 91°, Williamsport, PA: 91°, Albany, NY: 91°, Worcester, MA: 90°, Burlington, VT: 90°, Syracuse, NY: 89°, Bridgeport, CT: 89°, Binghamton, NY: 86° and Portland, ME: 80°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

There will be a lot of that for folks along the coasts . When you get cold SST’s their springs are not good

3.1" for me, my notes say "heavy snow during the morning and early afternoon but temp of 33, melts mostly on contact"

This happens every spring. A few folks get all worried about cold and rain and no warmth and it ends up a lot of sunny dry, warm afternoons

Thanks, Yaakov. Hoping the AZ forecast busts way too high as I’d like a quieter ACE for a change.

Late april into the first week of May looks like the Final Boss of spring misery in new england. See 6z euro AIFS Hosting a party on May 3rd, so we hope that doesn't pan out.

I thought that you got hammered a few weeks ago, while I was suffering one miss after another. In the meantime, we've had 5.66" in the past 30 days, completely wiping out our extreme drought. Amazing how different it can be in only 50 miles.

heh... just a general note on the NAO. Taken fwiw but my personal observation with -NAO(+NAO)s that are long lead signals is that they have very poor verification. We already know with safe assumption that in partial (at least) this has gotta be true, because the actual ridge node associated with the physical manifestation of the NAO block itself is being placed in different locations on every other run of the guidance. So off the bat, there's poor deterministic value there. But, even at a more orbital consideration, 'do they even happen?' ... I've come to find that a significant number of occurrences when -NAOs(+NAOs) show up in that D10 to 2-week window, they don't even exist when the whole of it is D4/5/6. They don't survive continuity coming into mid range. Out of all atmospheric indices, the NAO handling is just not well logistically managed by any one or any thing. This -NAO manifested about 5 days ago... about when it was D12. Prior to that... we were going to roll right back into a warm up. But then Monday's sharp trough and attending cold shot showed up, and it seems the models "might" have been getting a bit overzealous in creating positive anomaly NE of it as it turned the corner and rose in latitude through the Maritime of Canada. But two aspects are true and they are sort of competing. The 2nd aspect is also a personal observation, particularly in late winter into springs: when we have a warm anomalous pattern, the breakdown has in the past seemed to segue the -NAO response. It's like the warm anomaly rises in latitude and gets dumped up there...then takes 3-5 days to finally disperse... a time in which we tend to get cold shits down this way. The former aspect is more of an always consideration. The latter is a spring one. I'm trying to assess which is going to be the case. It seems at this moment, while typing, we're getting a hybrid expression between in the guidance complexions.

75 / 57 clouds to the north. Step down to upper 70s / low 80s with enough sun, possibly a bit warmer if mostly sunny in the warm spot. Perhaps a n isolated shower later today. Saturday looks great back towards normal , Sunday front comes through with best shot at any rain. Overall cooler than normal week - contingent on extent of onshore backing in and clouds could be near normal and a few nice days away from the onshore or pure / typical marine layer cool. Still looking mainly dry but these have a habit of rain popping on a several days. 4/17 : Warm 4/18 - 4/19 : Near normal 4/20 - 4/21 : Chill down 4/22 - 4/28 : Near - below normal perhaps wetter. 4/29 - beyond : moderation towards the end of the month / early May

Wish I still had it in me to drive more than 50 miles to chase lol. Again, line will come through here overnight, probably just enough to scare the dog and wake me up. To be honest , there's a a good 250 mile stretch of that front that if any kind of updraft can get isolated there's a decent possibility of a long tracker. Yes more so in the N/IL S/C/WI areas, but there are more than enough shotgun/ semi automatic impressive pre-frontal hodo's on the models anyway. Guess my play was back in March with and 80mph downburst lol, may have to wait until June now. Regardless, agree with all, good chance of a long tracker here, and very well could be where one doesn't expect it with this setup. Good luck to all that dare the chase traffic jam and stay away from that one idiot that goes 100mph and runs stop signs. Thats what got Corbin Jaeger, Randy Yarnell and Kelley Williamson (I chased with him a lot many many years ago, great guy) killed. Be the fuck careful man

Do you have the 00z version of this at 186 ?

Hopefully this verifies

As always this time of year-better to live further south and west

models also showed a -NAO going into late March-never happened and now we are seeing it again. Would think models trend warmer then

Relative to all climate zones there's a tendency in the guidance, et al, to back off the "doom" as you say. Certainly CT ( 00z GFS ) does the best - just by virtue of where they are. Case in point, they flip glorious on Thur/Fri for example as a stuck warm/stationary boundary slices from Watertown-ish NY-like to Providenceness, Rhode Islage. Just quantificaiton of that snap shot is probably 80 at HFD and 55 with a feeble Labradorian prostate drip coming into Logan. Not the full-on cold dildo flogging of previous runs. Can and Euro leave something to be desired, but they are also less cold in total qualitative.

Last year’s strawberry plants overwintered in the old bathtub I planted them in; nice buds on multiple plants. I’ll have to cover them Sunday/Monday as projected lows are 26.