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The 12z AIFS pushes back pretty heavily on the chinook - even more so than the 6z GFS. Take one look at the 500 map, and it doesn't look great. But take a look at what is creeping into Greenland. That is a game changer if it stands(and doesn't connect to a WAR). But take a look at the surface. Not what you would expect. That isn't warm. Cold air is seeping into the EC. A cold hp over the GL is not a bad thing for us. FWIW, the 12z GFS looked ready to break the chinook look by the end of its run. The NAO firing will force everything south.

Classic.

Thnk goodness its gonna be avg the rest of the year. Gotta have warmer temps to get the big snows.

Not if the anti-science, vaccine deniers have their way...

Define "most of NC has measurable snow already"

Until the pacific relaxes this looks like shut the blinds for winter weather for a long time. Models showing that extreme negative PNA look now with what they’re spitting out. Just a ripping flow too, drought areas likely to get much worse. Canada is still very cold and stays cold so there might be hope down the road. December likely to finish BN for most and most of NC has measurable snow already so no shutout. Might be time to throw your middle finger up at the pacific I’m sure it’ll pay attention and listen

Not that I've ever seen. Last night was about as close as I've ever seen it get, which is part of the reason I posted it. Maybe one day.

You're welcome, the snow was on the 20th, instead of the 21st, I mistyped. The Arctic air just wrung every bit of moisture from the air throughout that day, the temp fell from 32 to -15 on the 20th. We see big drops like that when we start in the 60s, but it's rare to see one when we start in the 20s/30s.

I read some fascinating papers and articles on the lives of human species (both Neanderthal and Homosapiens who arrived later in the period) in Europe during the 20k-80k years ago period…basically most of that was during pretty strong ice ages. They were able to figure out from bones and other artifacts that someone who survived until age 35 back then had a body more akin to someone in their 70s today. Lots of arthritis and other health issues and fast aging. Pretty amazing when you think about it. What a tough environment to live in back then. Even in much more recent times going merely back to late 19th or very early 20th century, nearly half of babies didn’t reach the age of 18. Unheard of now.

For me it wouldn’t be “suffering”. It isn’t anything like, say, bad health/getting sick. “Suffering” is too harsh a word from my standpoint even though it’s not at all what I prefer as I want it colder than normal at any point in the year. The good thing is that it’s my favorite season of the year and warmer than normal in winter is still much colder than, say, below normal in summer. In addition, this warmer period will be following one of the coldest 3 week periods from Thanksgiving through the first 17 or so days of December I’ve ever experienced and easily the coldest since 2010. Even if it’s going to be mild for awhile, forecast discussions would still be interesting in the most volatile season of all, winter.

I wouldn't call the 12z GFS or Canadian OP a torch for Christmas. Haven't seen the Euro yet. We are also still 9 days out . . .

Sit around the fire drinking coco? BTW I think this illustration is from Mt. Tolland.

Yes, but it was a hell of a 30 year run!

Lots of fine ways to jackpot in a storm

I would think so since this is something that gradually built up rather than what happened in @tamarack's story. It directly hangs over another smaller section of the building.

I forgot to mention this yesterday, but one of the Glacier National Park web cams had water drops, that is, rain. That is a result of such warm air.

I bet they enjoyed a good ice storm

Santa's been around since the start of time

Thanks brother ! I hope and pray your Wife gets well and you stay healthy. Dr said Flu was bad here too. He said Covid was too but it's Symptoms haven't been as bad as the other Viruses.

Never fails for Christmas. Lol idk why it irritates me so damn bad, I do like that millions of other peeps will be turning on the AC during dinner. Lol

Yeah, Kris Kringle or Jesus weren't even birthed yet.. lol

So Euro caved?

Get better soon. My wife has been battling a cough congestion over a month now. She never gets sick. The flu from all accounts is brutal this year.

Since 1980, for December cases with a WPO of -2 or below: PNA<0: 84.1%; PNA>0: 15.9%.