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Last 4 or 5 days the daily PDO rose from -3.5 to -2.73 on the World Climate Service site, so it's too early to get too concerned for this winter.

My date of birth.

What isn't in modern times???

Today > Yesterday

I understand all of that, but just saying....that rule is geared toward technical La Niña seasons.

Only 9 more months!

This ruined my night. Ugh

The extreme QBO fluctuations over recent years is very interesting. It will be interesting to see what ENSO does over the next few years. -QBO if it holds for the cold season has a warm Stratosphere correlation at about 0.3. That doesn't automatically mean cold though, as the composite of warm Stratosphere Winters is actually +temp anomaly for the Northeast.

Not happy about that.

Highs: TEB: 85 * erroneous 93 readning EWR: 85 PHL: 85 NYC: 84 LGA: 84 New Brnswck: 84 JFK: 83 ISP: 83 TTN: 83 BLM: 81 * missing most data ACY: 81

I'm worried as well...

Yep it's about to get really soggy

Moved daughter into Bryan College Friday. Perfect timing for the fall temps. It looked like fall most of day with the clouds & fog. Yesterday was perfect with mostly cloudy most of the day. Finally got some good rains which helped settle the dust. Unfortunately I have come down with a bug & have slept most of day. Hopefully this fall wx continues.

The July 30 mb QBO was released today at -19.99 (nothing surprising).

oh i see interesting thank you

It's a Hadley Cell expansion phase. The Hadley Cell has also been expanding in the Atlantic, and it looks like this is a long term phase (similar to cold-ENSO) that has lasted about as long as the current -PDO cycle (since 1998, +AMO has been since 1995). The Hadley Cell would have to shrink, allowing for more mid-latitude low pressures, which is usually more associated with +ENSO. Some have correlated it to the Solar, by which there may be a few year lag. We had record low sunspots 2003-2022, but an active solar cycle has occurred over the last 2 years.

Current radar looks like...dry air is eating into our snowfall

so what happens when it goes away what would be in replace of it or would it go to a +pdo

Just ate dinner on the deck. Mr. J said it feels like September. Told him it smells like it to. I attribute that to all the trees stressed from our past low precipitation July.

sunrise looked the same here this morning..

oh i see gotcha interesting thank you stormchaserchuck1

Wild. Warmer in ME, where we are currently under wildfire smoke gloom

If we are at the peak now, it may take some time to wind down. It started in 1998, so we are approaching 30 years. The thought is that it should start to come down over the next few years.. although it could break the historical trend and last longer.