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After nearly 6 weeks of nothing... picked up just under an inch in the past 24 hours. Feast or famine has been the theme for the last couple years. Prolonged dry is followed by too much lol. I doubt the 0z euro for down here (10 inches over 6 days lol) but i have a hunch my area will get peppered pretty good. Dust bowl to mud bowl in a blink lol

I was skeptical of the 2-4” mesos had for most of interior SNE. HREF was awful

That stuff in PA will pillage NNE. Scattered Stein for the rest in SNE with some downpours flying around.

12z models had barely anything here, including HRRR. Over an 1" in the last 2 hours.

I have the maybe 0.5” now from the one batch of rain. Lucky swath through Nassau has about 1”. Looks like maybe a few showers to go then done.

I do not think it will be as extreme, though....yes, the west PAC is still warm, but the warmth has spread east...think of it as kind of like a the RONI effect with respect to ENSO. Remeber the 2023-2024 El Nino and how the west warm pool mitigated and altered the warm ENSO impression around the hemisphere. I think that warmth further east will act to neutralize things to an extent.

As far as the WPO goes….I have to agree with you there. The WPAC SST pattern over the last couple of months up to now is matching past years that had predominantly +WPO winters. If that doesn’t change in a big way between now and the end of November, a +WPO winter would not surprise me

That SE New England convection Steined the rest of SNE. Robbed all the moisture

Warm spots in NJ can add another 80° day this month with a few breaks of sun.

WPO I am less confident in.

I don't expect that outcome either.

Yeah new seed happy today. Good soaking. Great weather for growing heading into Growtober.

Had 0.37" in gauge at 7 am CoCoRaHS report this am. Planted grass is really coming along. The 60.0 low was warm, but for 2nd morning in a row last year's number (62.9) beats it. Sun is trying to break thru the fog and clouds and it has warmed to a miserably muggy 71.8/68.6 at 10:30 am.

Not feeling too optimistic about the severe threat today. There are hardly any breaks in the clouds on visible satellite. Some storms still seem likely but I’d be surprised if we saw a lot of wind/tornado reports.

I do believe we can have very little confidence in models until Saturday when 94L really starts to develop. This reminds me in some ways of Joaquin, which missed the trough leading to hundreds of miles of track error 4-5 days out. Totally different set up, but just as if not more complex this time

I'm not so sure its the models that are bad, but rather the (lack of) initialization data that is being fed into them: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/doge-cuts-nws-balloon-sites-leave-us-without-crucial-weather-data-some-meteorologists-say/

Better spin looks north of the island to me. Might take a while for a center to settle and write could see some jumps and relocations

And we have sun. Who woulda thunk

About 0.55" so far for the last 2.5 days.

59.0° +RA

Way south of Cuba in the Caribbean. Sandy hit Jamaica as a hurricane

Have to hope for some convection later with the pre-frontal trough

The models steining this area today were wrong wrong wrong. 1.75" total, 0.60"+ and counting today