All Activity

Deepest depth in front yard that I measured is 20.5 . The house faces to the SSW. And receives a good amount of sunshine.

Gefs improved

I was wondering if we were going to start a tracker for the forum on snowpack. If I had a choice, I would definitely choose a 5 inch snowpack that lasted for weeks with the chance of additional snow cover than a 12 inch storm with a washout in three days followed by 50s. My front yard is facing due north and I have 5 foot ice mounds from the plows which should hang around until March if we don't get a big rainstorm with temps in the 50s.

updated KBOS 1.9" for last night I believe that brings season total to 41.4" (normal to date 30.2") With the sustained deep cold and massive piles, what an unmitigated stretch of yore since the Jan SWFE, nothing close since 2015

Gefs is better

I glance at stuff in the long range but I've stopped tracking daily specific threats until they are inside day 5-6 and it's improved my mental health! Jan 2016 I was exhausted by the time it snowed...tracking every run for 10 days...worried it was going to rug pull...I would have enjoyed that much more had I not done that. And that was our last huge WIN and I didn't even enjoy it as much as I should have because of the anxiety of tracking it so long.

I'm thinking the same thing. Sounds like a perfect opportunity to score a hike in the Catoctins.

You're stupid enough to believe that LOT takes any serious consideration into a fantasy range OP GFS run, LMAO. Like I said, the operational GFS is the worst performing model as of recent, and you're putting so much weight into it because you can't cope with the fact that winter is coming to an end, or you're just trolling hard, lmao. Not to mention these are 230+ hour runs, if you're going to do that at least use the AI Euro or an ensemble. Btw, even a 3 day Feb 2017 redux would be a very notable warm period. Before that happens, several days in the 50s will surely have it feeling like spring around these parts. Enjoy your early spring kiddo.

A lot of wishcasting though. Uk is south but “if” it was north. Gfs is rain but “if” we get dynamic cooling. I think your area has a better chance because of elevation, but the airmass leading in is not conducive to snow for the majority of us. Maybe I’ll drive up to the top of Catoctin mountain and hang out for the day. I’m due for a hike.

Oops on mobile I need glasses, that was aigfs lol

The tracking so long is really exhausting. Really need to dial back until we get inside 5 days to keep one's sanity. Just look at whether pattern is favorable outside 5 days rather than focus on a particular shortwave.

Agree hard with this. The storm is as far out as the Jan 25th storm was when it was showing a flush hit of 2+ feet of snow! Things can still change majorly, who knows this might evolve into a cutter to Chicago or a storm which doesn't even get precip into VA.

Euro ai already ran.. looks like crap

used to be, not anymore. I think at one point their physics were pretty similar, but the euro has changed several times over the last 10 years and I've noticed they no longer are in lock step as much as in the past.

The last few weeks will be great fodder for arguments about the best regional winter events. Basically, can you separate the event itself from the “aftermath”? Everyone wants a Jan ‘16 storm with a Jan ‘26 freeze, but in the end, which combo (big snow/melt, modest snow/freeze) is your favorite?

I have to relocate mine. It's difficult in an urban area to get a good spot far from the heat from the house and out of the sunlight. Thinking about hanging it on the north facing side of the tree int he front yard. But my thermo has been as much as 6 degrees off at times.

UKIE generally is a precursor to what the EURO will show right?

Something I pointed out in the other thread...the 12z UK misses south, but it's closer to what we want...the storm trended north AND the thermal profile trended colder, such that had the storm been slightly more amplified it would have been snow across our area. It just slides south...but it was a win in my book because we got one of the two factors we need...cold, and it got closer with the track of the storm. Some are acting like this is 48 hours out. It's still 5 days away...time for trends and things to reverse and change a bit. It's still close enough...its a long shot...we need a lot to go right...perfect track and max out a very marginal airmass but it's not time to close the door on it completely yet. As long as expectations are in check and understood its a long shot.

What are the non deepest snow depths?

I am not but you might be!!!! You might want to look at the 12Z GFS compared to the old 6z GFS that you are referring to. I am not sure if you are smart enough to understand that the LOT forecast that you referring to was before the 6z run came out and believe it or not models do change from time to time. You my friend have a wonderful day and enjoy your 2-3 day Feb 17 redux!!!

Still coming down well

antecedent cold is not stoudt, so we may need column to cool dynamically (ala Euro), but thats more of an outlier IMO. I think thermally we'll be i trouble down here, but as currently depicted would get some front end prior to losing thermals. I personally can see this going norther and what I just suggested could be an issue into central Pa (assuming north trend continues). I'm glad to see the storm no matter. We need it. Beyond that, next week looks redundant of this week. No big torch, and some cool days sprinkled in (sorta normalish see saw stuff.)

The UK is a miss south...but in one way it's a win. We have 2 things we need here...precip and temps. The UK is colder! If the storm had tracked further north it would have been snow...no issues with that thermal profile as the storm slides to our south. That is important...the runs that are both weak AND warm are the really bad runs... I'll take the UK look...we would just need the storm to be slightly more amplified/north to win.

after years of bad luck can we finally have it on our side? who knows.

UKMET looks slightly better, but still offshore. Going to need to see some other models come more on board at 18z/0z or the Euro is likely toast. The EuroAI may be telling in a few minutes.