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Tough sell/science for now ... ( and I realize you're not asking me directly - ) but, I've surmised it may be related to C02 exceeding absorption rate of the oceans. With more C02 left available to store tropospheric heat, that effects heat exchange efficiency in the total atmosphere/ocean coupled model. How? A warmer C02 richer atmosphere increased WV loading, and above some mass, this slows the evaporation rate off the ocean, which physically transports heat away with the evaporating mass... This slows ocean cooling, ...such that heat absorption exceeds heat escaping --> temp goes up. Probably? approaching a critical mass threshold where we all die. Have nice day /// 2023 didn't just happen for shits and giggles. And the ITZ SST band only dropping .6, while the Sub -T SSTs tickle history, means the total region is actually not going down.

Soaking wet today in the march in nyc. But it is like 65 so super pleasant.

That period starting late week/early the following week does look like the first decent shot of a heat wave for SNE. Maybe even 4-5 days in the 90s

How often is severe weather "widespread", though? Isn't it somewhat scattershot by nature?

Not one peak of sun here today and it's back to misery mist.

I know the privy folk won't like this, but I would not wish away a FM strong cat 3- borderline 4 (130-140? mph weakening to 120) rocketing forward N or even NNW <3 into SNE.

The SST's were always 78F if not 83F peak, saw and measured those every year I used to measure from the late 80's through 2005. The "good" years you can bake some inlets to 80's easily - EWB, West Fal., and so on. It's basically a 1000 or 10,000 /year miracle to rip a cat 3-near 4? up into NE? lol

I can hear thunder but radar says i miss this blob. Doesn't look like my weekend but it's still early

at least for now there's what appears to be a decent couplet on that cell north of Winchester... TVS indication per RadarScope

it looks like the sun has been trying to come out

Smoke was horrible in Essex today for my sons baseball tournament

The diabolical miscreant dystopian ahole in me would rather it be August 21 ...right about on lolly-pop top of the highest OHC climo available around New England coastal waters, after (say) a Hades summer really cooked the shit to historic SSTs. Hell, I remember once swimming/surfing Narragansett Beach in southern RI and the water temp at the buoy/mouth of the Bay just around the corner was 81 ... Granted, it was more like razor thin 74 out in the Bite water S of L.I. but if you're trying/hoping to conserve as much jesus h christitude of storm momentum as possible, September is already starting to create just that much stabilizing marine boundary layer to steal some greedy wind points away. lol

This looks maybe average to slightly above for the end of June.. nothing crazy

Have we reached the point where the planets have to align in order for us to get widespread severe weather? This is winter tier futility.

Precipitation appears to be underperforming today which is frustrating as I am stuck in 0.14" for the month. Really want to get some soakings before the big heat starts next week.

They haven’t shown any sustained heat like this. Not once .

Meh it's like in winter when models show a great pattern and snow chances on day 10 only to go to crap.. also models have been showing heat in the extended for 2 months now and nothing to show for it.. maybe this time works out though

tomorrow isn't much better but at least dry for most

Yeah I mean it'll be much cooler then, but I'm afraid the "cry for mama" heat will be finito early this summer

Oh man smith and grafton hall still exist, thought they would raze those projects by now?

And honestly it’s probably more likely mid/ late Octorcher

Got up to 61° but back to overcast.

he means Septdewber, months from now it'll relax

New Jersey wildfire smoke is no joke, 80.2 humid cloudy smoke haze, 0.75" yesterday

Im exact same here.