All Activity

Ya pretty similar, hopefully we can squash the SE ridge a bit more to spread the wealth this time.

Yes, Don was mentioning it with evidence to back it up a forecast that shows it latter now.

15 day EPS anomaly charts haven't meant much lately - not sure if they ever really did. But even if we accept it as is, the neg anomalies over SCal and pos anomalies in the Deep South are red flags. This is a common and recent failure mode. Yes, more so for the Mid-Atl than for NE... but I'd still rather be in the Whites or Maine for a "pattern" like that.

Here’s the mid December 2007 stretch that was quite kind to the region. Esp N of pike but even that 12/13 event got your area good. 12/16 hammered pike northward. You can see that big vortex in SE Canada.

I got the Cure for that. It can torch Nino all it wants then NIno to Eternity. All you need is a place called Mammoth Mountain Ski Resort or the Canadien Rockies at 16,000 feet in January. It would be -20 Fahrenheit, 175 mph winds and blinding snow and the skiing's great in the Canadien Rockies, real pow snow and no melting for 11.9 months out of the year. No one has to put up with global warming no longer, It will never be too warm for snow and winter in the Sierra, the Cascades or the Canadien Rockies or especially the Brooks Range in Alaska. You go high enough in the Rockies snow NEVER melts. I'm crazy as all hell but I still want an all-out Ice Age, with snow 13,000 feet deep, 100 mph winds and -100 degree cold. I am no better than I was in high school. The school board kicked my sorry ass out of Gar Field High in 1981. I just would not stop taking weather readings in class or drawing cross sections of cold fronts displacing hot air and changing rain to torrential snow. I am sick to death of summer in November in Texas. I am back to wishing for an all-out AMOC Shutdown and the return of an Ice Age Earth. We can always live in the deep underground military bases if need be. We can defeat the hybrid creatures that live in the deeper levels 4 miles down, They have a Mach 2 maglev transport system under there and it is global. I demand: snow 13,000 feet deep, minus 100 degree high temps, and constant blasting by severe gales and 200 story drifts in a milkshake-like environment. This was the way I expressed myslef in high school and it is no surprise I finally got my ass kicked right out of the public school system, in 1981 when I was in 11th Grade. They'd had enough. Well, I have had enough of summer in November. It'll be summer in Texas the next three months. I'm fed up. I want extreme cold deep ice and snow and watch everyone fall down and bust their tailbone! All while I happily blast Ken Carson at 200 decibels! This has been a classic Jebman Presentation, 2025 I'm Tired of Summer Edition. Carry on.

+AO?

Very nice theirs some chatter over on the other side of this forum about a robust positive AO we shall see.

No, definitely don’t need it verbatim there, I was just thinking the NAO would help kind of pin that vortex more in Canada after a certain amount of time. Just to give it more staying power that’s all. I feel like the Pacific might relax a little bit over time.

It's always interesting when the CFS monthly is out of sync with the weekly version of itself. December looks much better on the weeklies than the monthly one that @40/70 Benchmark showed. Euro weekly backs it up. Never confident in these long term models but it's nice to see the signal getting better as we get closer to December rather than the other way around. Hopefully it's not hallucinating.

I know this is from SNE... but would this be good for us in future days after? Or is this a gradient pattern that sucks for us? Today's 12z EPS at the very end btw

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-13-2007 https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-16-2007

Most of the time it does sometimes it doesn't but most of the time it does.The AO is fluctuating now but doesn't mean it's going to take stay positive.

Long as that doesn't mean winter hangs around till the end of April the following year like it did then.

Not sure we’d need any NAO ridging with that look. That’s pretty cold. That SE Canada and Atlantic look is very reminiscent of early to mid December 2007…the WPO is more negative than ‘07 though…that’s pure cross polar there

Sure, anyone who points this out is a denier...it's the same dogma that leads to "everything about climate change is CATASTROPHIC and EVIL!"

What could go wrong?

I can live with this look on December 8th

Good to hear. Every NAO that we’ve had over the last 3-4 years hasn’t done Jack for us. In fact it’s hurt us more than anything. I’ll take some random transient ridging and run, thank you very much.

Yep. Maybe the Mountains will get a few Flakes from that.

Utter nonsense

Below is an illustration of an extreme forecast that is being pushed on Twitter/X despite the lack of evidence to actually support the idea (e.g., small pool of deep cold in the Northern Hemisphere) and the lack of skill in guidance from this far out: "Lower Rio Grande Valley" doesn't specify a specific point or location for purposes of verification, so it will be excluded. Here's the forecast coupled with December 2000-2024 statistics: This illustrative example will be verified at the end of December. Given the estimated probabilities for various outcomes, the odds are strongly against the extreme forecast verifying in more than one of the above locations.

At least Black Friday is trending colder and colder

I don’t dislike the Euro for next weekend at all. .

Yeah it's 75-80 east of the Blue Ridge today even. SER is strong the next few weeks. Hopefully it decides to go on vacation until March

Exactly the same amount here.