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The ICON FWIW

6z GFS was solid. ICON looked like it was going to improve over 0Z. Of the operational runs, only the EURO showed nothing. Either we all hail EURO in the end or all other models end up closer to correct. Still a lot of time of course.

Certainly going to be close for folks like you and me.

Wednesday is only tomorrow. If these runs hold through 12z tomorrow, then it's game on for tracking. We haven't had much luck with tracking threats as not many came to fruition except the early December overperformer and Jan 25. Hope we can turn that luck around.

Transition to El Nino should be fast

First event is at risk of sliding just south of me.

I think if the previous system was strong then I agree but a weak shortwave 2 days ahead of the next is plenty of spacing imo.

Just need to track it over the canal now

6z EURO OP took a step towards the other models. Good improvements from 0z.

Foggy as heck here in the northern DC burbs. Strange to see the thick fog, that is such a usual feature of our warm wet Winters that we typically have. But it's been so dry. I feel like I haven't seen heavy fog since the fall. Still decent snow cover in my backyard which is pretty amazing for this area. 23+ days

6z EPS improved

On the winter desk 6 of the next 7 days. Hopefully I can bring us home

I wanted to jump off a cliff after reading his notes.

Not sure how that invalidates the analog.....potential light-moderate-major trifecta is close enough for me.

Thanks for the Cliff Notes

Those were 3 biggies though.

6z AI EPS looks good for Sunday into Monday & the 6z Regular EPS at the end of its 6 day run improved as well

Jesus, 3 systems? I'm overwhelmed with blog overload. I haven't experienced this since...oh, IDK....March 2018??

The OPs have been shifting around on the track and timing every 12 hrs. So we should just use an ensemble blend at this point and hold off on the details for a few days. It’s tough to get one really big storm when the systems are only 48hrs apart. But it’s not impossible. We will need some extra thread for this needle.

I just checked in from yesterday and had that exact reaction! Lmao

2-3 depth in shaded undisturbed places. Down to grass in others, especially where the dogs have been. Pile at the end of the driveway is down to 3 feet tall instead of 4 haha

yeah! First impressions are not always lasting impressions. It was suppressed at 114 but the cold press lagged allowing too much energy to scoot up the wov This morning at 06z that primary over at Charleston need to be down at Charlotte. The AI deterministic really slams us as well as the GEM. They must have tweaked the AI Ensemble. Finally, the poor old timey EURO really can't find the storm.

Temu Washington and Madison?

Philly got nothing on SNE

Same person with a different screen name doesn’t really help.