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Scoot: “Judah…I am your daddy”

Below normal temperatures will prevail through tomorrow. Highs will be mainly in the middle and upper 40s in New York City with lows in the middle and upper 30s. A milder pattern will then develop afterward. Some rain or rain showers are possible. Once in place, the milder pattern will likely continue into the closing days of November. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely. The closing days of November could turn cooler. Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,390th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +38.30 today. That is the highest SOI value since December 23, 2022 when the SOI reached +50.96. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.027 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.1° (0.9° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

What will we get first? Epstein files GTA6 Consequential SSW

Currently: Clear. Calm. 29.4°

Luke Cohen Skywalker…?

31 degrees already, going to be a cold one in the morning. Maybe Some of you should close the bedroom window tonight.

Well, we gotta at least have the chance first, and so far step 1 is accomplished. We'll see from there.

Too much emphasis and living and dying with the possibility of a SSW event. Tip pretty much put it in perspective when he reminded us to keep your eye on 50,000 feet lower-H5 with his reference to the epo/wpo.

We're on the hype train...bottoms up

Return of the Judi

Judas Priest

Great input & discussions! THANK YOU to everyone! Love this forum!

He’s a hype guy though..so take with a grain of salt.

Right…-that’s what usually happens when they hype stuff. It’ll spill into Siberia or Europe somewhere probably, and we get nada.

Jeez 44 here

Everyone is saying it. Probably be a colossal bust.

I got cut off for a few min,kinda busy ATM,but by those pics seemingly shows into the 2nd week of Dec into the WP just constructive interference from Rossbly.Kelvin which looks like the MJO is into the Maritime/WP,but its not.Its still in the WH and getting into the IO towards the end of the month of Dec,

Judah Cohen says get ready

NSF NCAR researchers have confirmed that the record-breaking wind gust of 219 kts (252 mph) recorded in Melissa was accurate after completing their analysis. https://news.ucar.edu/133047/record-breaking-winds-confirmed-hurricane-melissa

I’m scared https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/19/weather/polar-vortex-cold-snowy-december-stratosphere

They are actually making snow right now. And yeah…they will only be opening trails off of two lower lifts for now. I would still think they would start blasting on Conifer in a week or so if temps allow

Tons of rain on the radar, but NO RAIN in central Texas. There's one thing we do damn well - We are The Boss, when it comes to Drought down here. No one does Drought like central Texas. La Nina's helpin us out too, deflecting storm tracks safely away from my backyard. I'll forecast this storm. No one does this like yours truly down here, and I have only been here 7 years. Dallas, They will have frantic water rescues by 3am. 3 to 9 inches easily. Most of the rain will pass safely over Austin. We *MIGHT* eke out half an inch. Yeah, that really helps. We are now the fastest growing megalopolis (Dallas/Austin/Buda/Kyle/SanMarcos/San Antonio) in the World. We passed Dubai and the entire UAE last year. WE WILL RUN OUT OF WATER. When THAT happens, water will be far more expensive than gasoline. Every major business is heading for Austin. This place is already a madhouse in rush hour. It's gonna get MUCH, MUCH worse. Everyone in New York City is heading down here, too. We'll add 3 million in the next 12 months! New Yorkers can't stand the snow and the cold, that is why so many people are suddenly moving out of NYC. All that snow is bad for business up there. Austin does not get snow. We don't get rain, either. Not much. Well north usually gets the rain. That would be Dallas, Oklahoma and Missouri, Louisiana. You know what I think? The lack of water in Texas will eventually cause another exodus, this time farther east, to pastures that get much more water, like New Orleans. Nightlife there is stellar, too, and they have casinos. Texas never will. This place is permanently stuck in the 1950s. Except for traffic and water shortages straight out of the 2090s.

Just to edit the pic above ill post it here,wasnt aware i cut the dates out

Forecast has clouds increasing. If that happens won't be a cold night.

Typically Dec in Mid/Tn is the wettest month of the year,its even wetter in West Tn into the Ozarks. Take these maps with a grain of this far out,probably from Rossby,Kelvin Waves,,but at least the Euro is showing something similar,but once again a grain of salt this far out