All Activity

Seems to be a growing likelihood of a midweek coastal low to bring most of our area at least some rain. Details are obviously still completely unresolved, but it's on a number of deterministic and ensemble systems.

Storm Number Storm Name Typea Datesb (UTC) Max. Winds (kt) Min. Pressure (mb) Accumulated Cyclone Energyc (x104 kt2) Direct Deathsd U.S. Damagee ($million) Tropical Cyclone Report Status 1 Alberto TS 19 Jun–20 Jun 45 992 0.8 2 125 Final 2 Beryl MH 28 Jun–09 Jul 145 932 34.5 35 7,200 Final 3 Chris TS 30 Jun–01 Jul 40 1005 0.1 5 0 Final 4 Debby HU 03 Aug–08 Aug 70 979 4.9 12 2,500 Final 5 Ernesto HU 12 Aug–20 Aug 85 967 14.4 3 0 Final 6 Francine HU 09 Sep–12 Sep 90 972 4.8 0 1,300 Final 7 Gordon TS 11 Sep–17 Sep 40 1004 1.3 0 0 Final 8 Eight PTC 15 Sep–17 Sep 50 1004 0.0 Final 9 Helene MH 24 Sep–27 Sep 120 939 7.0 176 78,700 Final 10 Isaac HU 25 Sep–30 Sep 90 963 7.9 0 0 Final 11 Joyce TS 27 Sep–30 Sep 45 1001 1.7 0 0 Final 12 Kirk MH 29 Sep–07 Oct 130 928 23.7 0 0 Final 13 Leslie HU 02 Oct–12 Oct 90 970 16.1 0 0 Final 14 Milton MH 05 Oct–10 Oct 155 895 22.5 15 34,300 Final 15 Nadine TS 19 Oct–20 Oct 50 1002 0.7 7 0 Final 16 Oscar HU 19 Oct–22 Oct 75 984 4.5 8 0 Final 17 Patty TS 01 Nov–04 Nov 55 982 2.3 0 0 Final 18 Rafael MH 04 Nov–10 Nov 105 954 12.3 2 0 Final 19 Sara TS 14 Nov–18 Nov 45 997 2.0 9 0 Final Yep, very active JJ, BN AS, very active ON.

it could be a cold and dry winter like last winter was.

Don, geoengineering is going to have to take place on a massive scale. I see you mentioned the rising sea levels and what the result would be if all the polar ice caps and glaciers melted. The planet is 70% covered by water right now, how much more would be covered by water if all that ice turned liquid? To be honest, we have way too much more water on this planet than we need, at some point, the only way to save our coastal cities will be to transport some of that water to space colonies in orbit and on the Moon and Mars (and wherever else we might colonize where water will most definitely be needed.) How quickly would we be able to do this (perhaps developing new technology like space elevators). This is obviously something that will take many decades to develop, perhaps not until 2100 and beyond.

I think maybe like last year we might have lucked out with the -PDO peaking too early. Its hard to sustain a -3 or 4 from July-August through an entire winter. Last year it basically bottomed out in October and then it was -1 during the winter. Could see the same thing happen again though I'd be wary of it not averaging slightly more negative than last winter.

Yeah. Stein at work means CoC can play

It didn’t work out for the 2019-2020 winter since the rest of the Pacific was so warm with the record IOD reversal which supercharged the SPV during the fall when it was so positive.

Was very humid feeling when i left for work at 6am.

It is pretty hot in the sun today

The low volume is why it was so much easier to reach the North Pole this summer. Extent is only a one dimensional measurement of where the edge of the ice field is. But now there is so much open and thin ice behind that edge that it’s losing its relevance as a useful metric for describing the state of the sea ice. Since in the old days there was solid MYI older ice behind the edge of where the ice was. The Barents Observer ‪@thebarentsobserver.com‬ Follow "What struck me most: the ease of access through what used to be a far more ice-covered region", expedition leader Jochen Knies tells us, "We had been sailing through open water at 6–8 knots, something unthinkable three decades ago." See our report straight from the North Pole! #climatechange “I didn’t hear the usual grinding of ice” When a Norwegian vessel reached the North Pole this week, the scientific team made an alarming discovery. www.thebarentsobserver.com September 4, 2025 at 7:09

Correct

Yeah. Volume doesn't really tell you much about what's happening now. The low volume is the result of decades of warming. We could have an asteroid impact the planet today and cool it 3 degrees and the volume would still be low next year.

Saw a few thunderheads off to the east earlier. Top 2 event of September so far.

Yes, otherwise we would be going into a 70s/80s type of inactive period right now.

I thought it was a warm NE Pac that had some correlation to a cold E US winter rather than a warm N Pac overall, which is what I believe is the current case.

The intriguing thing about last year which is being repeated to a more extreme extent this year is the long period of inactivity when you expect things to be very active. It was the tropical equivalent of a book end season, with big activity early and later in the season. Do you have a monthly breakdown of tropical activity from last season, Larry? Thanks!

Hey Liberty, 2024 came in less active than, for example, the initial forecasts from CSU. But the season was still solidly above avg and it was a horrific season for the SE US: 2024 North Atlantic Summary Named Storms (vs 1991-2020 Normal) Hurricanes (vs 1991-2020 Normal) Major Hurricanes (vs 1991-2020 Normal) Total ACE (x104 kt2) (% Difference of 1991-2020 Normal) Total Direct Deaths Total U.S. Damagee ($million) 18 (+4) 11 (+4) 5 (+2) 161.5 (+32% ) 274 124,125

This tropical storm will squash some Goombas

Anyone else smell smoke

Yes. The temperature has reached 41 on August 28 and September 8-9.

It makes plausible sense.

Not me down here on Long Island.

Could Wednesday be wet in NYC now?

Yes - 64 % Humidity 60 Dewpoint here On the Middlesex/Union County Border in NJ as of 11 am . Air Quality Index is 50 - Hazardous - whats causing that ?