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I'm getting a pre-storm ahead of the line of storms sweeping south.

I slept through it but woke up to 1.55” for the day.

Sunday has a chance according to CSU

DVN just gusted to 59mph. Should be another very nice soaker en route.

Gotta love BOS

My friend's plane leaves for Honolulu Hawaii Friday, August 14th. He is taking a Hawaiian island cruise around all the islands. Looks like the GFS has a 985 mb storm and the Euro 997 mb storm making a direct hit on the big island before moving west and away. Looks like this system is a legitimate threat to Hawaii. Any updates from the more seasoned tropical guys here would be great. I am able to see the models and the water vapor maps / satellites etc. looks like a bit of shear and dry air to the north limiting development for now. Looks like the legitimate threat lies at 11 N and 143 W if I am looking at it correctly but almost looks like another up there at 15N and 139 W. It looks very active out there.

Btw, Europe is quickly closing on a JJA warmest ever for a second consecutive year. I'm not sure if that's on whole, or in lesser quadratures but just a-priori on the story-line to date proooobably implicates everywhere? I dunno on that per se. interesting tho

You can find VP anomaly from 1940s to present from JMA 3Q reanalysis here: https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_jun_tcc.html (10 day means) https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_mon_tcc.html (monthly means) In the menu on upper left under "Field", click on Tropics. Then under Element, click 200 hPa Velocity Potential.

I asked Gemini these three questions, italicized for clarity. You could ask any AI the same set of questions, and get the same general answers. Q: For collecting good-quality long term climate temperature data, 100 years+, describe a hypothetical location in a temperate climate. Short answer. A: A ideal hypothetical location in a temperate climate for a 100-year climate station is an isolated, protected rural valley plateau. Q: If you took the station just described, and after 100 years of data, moved it into an urban area, what would happen? Short answer. Describe the reverse case as well, where the station begins in an urban area. A: Moving a Rural Station to an Urban Area: Moving a 100-year rural station into a city causes an artificial temperature spike. A: The Reverse: Moving an Urban Station to a Rural Area: Moving a station from a city out to a rural area causes an artificial temperature drop. Q: How would you correct for the station move? A: To correct for a station move, climate scientists use a statistical process called homogenization. Here is how the correction works: Create a Reference Record: Scientists select a group of nearby, undisturbed "neighboring" stations that experienced the same regional weather but did not move. Identify the Breakpoint: They calculate the average temperature difference between the target station and the neighbor group. A sudden, permanent shift in this difference confirms the exact date of the move. Calculate the Offset: Scientists compare the data from a window of years immediately before the move to a window of years after the move against the stable neighbors to determine the exact bias (e.g., the city move made it 1.2°C warmer). Adjust the Historical Data: They apply that 1.2°C offset to the entire block of data prior to the move, lifting (or lowering) the old record so it seamlessly aligns with the new location's environment.

Storms possible mainly north and west area this evening/later tonight

It's kinda boring not having any tropical to track this time of year. No big swells, no cone of uncertainty, no weenie NAM runs with a cat 5 into Annopoils. Nothing but dust and cobwebs.

There's almost a chill in the air this morning

Thankfully we upper 60s.

Initial WxBell Nov ‘26- Mar ‘27 forecast looks very reasonable although I’d like to see the month to month so as to see the expected large variability from early to late as I’ve just been posting about although they did say this: The bottom line is the colder part of the winter is expected to be later, rather than in December. Temps: Snowfall:

Min 57.4° Coldest 8/12/2026 of my life.

The TW following 92L is also making some noise on the models and is now a lemon although the 0Z UKMET has it just as a TW moving similarly to 92L into the E Caribbean: 8AM TWO: Now up to 20/30:3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:A tropical wave just offshore of the coast of west Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some development of this system during the next several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Yeah, October has been a pretty good indication of the Aleutian low strength for the winter since 1997 during super El Niño. Notice how large an area in the NEPAC during October 1997 was occupied by the Aleutian low. It actually had multiple centers. One area NW of Hawaii and the other over the EPO and PNA regions. The Southeast El Niño trough was already beginning to become established also. That winter went on to have one of the strongest and largest Aleutian low areas of all-time. In October 2015 and 2023 the Aleutian low was confined to a much smaller space in the NEPAC. Both of theses winters had smaller and more displaced Aleutian low locations than 1997-1998. This matches the 500 mb ridges becoming stronger and more expansive since 2015-2016 and the troughs becoming weaker relative to earlier years.

p strong agreement on more relief in droughtville

63 degrees this morning. Fishing yesterday pretty hard downpour 6:00am for 15 minutes and some strong winds. We took fish place yesterday. Been a tough year.

should be a safe miss south for my, not to bummed and will be nice to see the wet get spread around a bit

Thank you for adding Feb of 1995 and especially 2007 to the list. Indeed, two more cold Febs and they both had warm Decs! So, the idea continues to be that a warm Dec, which is expected especially up north and especially what @snowman19has emphasized and which El Niño climo favors, has little to no bearing on how cold Feb could be. That imho tells me the best way to look toward this winter, looking at its prospects month to month. Models and analogs are emphasizing the prospect for a big range from warm start to cold end.

That was an unusual MCS. It’s like it kept moving SE but storms kept developing on outflow boundaries that were pushing SW. Then quite a bit of convection just developed ahead of the main line to the west and SW of Knoxville extending all the way back to middle TN. That looked like some really intense rainfall and lightning around Knox Co. last night around 10-11 PM. Here I picked up 0.79, but some places had alot more. Now, there is another one knocking on the door again this morning. FFW today for a good chunk of E TN.