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Well... If giving me the Shit symbol makes you feel better... Do it again. Get it out man. Things will not stay the same forever.

Yeah, even if PNA developed as advertised yesterday, there is usually a lag before we see impacts. Now that too is in question. Anyone know how PNA works together with Enso? I would think they would be interrelated.

Only 10% of the literature even suggested the idea of predicting global cooling (while 62% predicted warming), but sure. Remember what you want to remember

With regard to assessing the pattern trajectories, only ... changes took place among the ensemble systems overnight bearing different implications than those we'd been discussing over the last few days. Short version: Intstead of going form a -WPO hybrid/stuck resonant pattern breakdown, into an at least low amplitude +PNA ... the implication now is that the former relays at sub-week time scale pretty directly into a -EPO. Longer version: The GEFs mean, in fact, went hugely amplified with it. I kind of kick myself here ... a little. Because the GEFs was hesitating all along. The nightly EOF calcs for the PNA was always the least +D(PNA). It went from this left panel at 348 hours, to the one on the right at 300 hours ...over these last two days, with the interim runs showing a gradually improving coherence. That does not represent a low amplitude +PNA. That is a dominating -EPO hemisphere there. I call that a big and sweeping change, because the implications are not the same. Yes, yes ...obviously, this is 300 hours blah blah blah... however, it matters if we are in the business of extended range/early risk assessing, which falls out of pattern recognition. Low amplitude +PNA will tend to host a different spectrum of risks compared to those correlated to nearing cross polar flow amplified -EPOs. I'm sure by now people are ready to pounce at those difference ...go for it. But, in the meantime, I strongly suspect the reason the 6-10th period is getting seeming blurred and less coherent as we approach, when in theory is should be getting better, may be tied to these sweeping changes taking place. 6-10th fit the PNA expectation for the last 3 or 4 days nicely. Above? not so much. So there may still be a window ... didn't wanna get into specific event coverage but I will just say, that period is still in the inflection window between the -WPO break down, then this emergence above. There could be an opportunity in there. Here's the EPS and the GEM, showing the same move toward a higher amplitude -EPO. The EPS shows the move but's subtler, admittedly... I don't think it necessarily diminishes the suspicions though, it still moved.

I hope you are still immature enough to make "He who smelt it, dealt it" jokes all day.

No, actually IMBY, they couldn't.

On & off flurries this morning 25°

Lol .. cmon dude.... Things could be so much worse. Stop over analyzing. I really think you need to take a break. Come back in a few weeks when you think the pattern might be better. Focus on something else! :-)

This isn't a terrible looking sounding on the Cape. Def unstable in the lowest 3km But can anyone say Martha's vineyard jackpot?

Same as it is now, same as it ever was

I take it was not great for models overnight given the lack of posts. .

Yes I'd like to do some work outside with the brush cutter. Now that the sleet is gone would be a great time to do it. Even if it's around 30. But factor in that wind...no thanks.

This is going to be the first time in about 15yrs, That i'm going to be smelt fishing this early, 7+" of ice on the tributaries from all this cold weather this month, Going out Saturday night to fish the incoming tide, It is fun catching these when there running, These fish are a delicacy, Better then french fries.

I still don't think the the seasonal NAO values were as low in the aggregate as they were in past negative NAO decadal cycles.....seasons that actually average negative in the DM mean are pretty sparse and relegated to intervals surrounding the solar min at this point...that said, maybe this year pulls it off.

Yeah, pop that secondary a bit sooner and we can pull in more moisture. Not a ton but enough to bump up totals.

Reggie with a nice 1-3+ for most of SNE. Def gonna be some positive surprises with this down here

Ensembles did get worse for both threats too just to be clear…but they didn’t eliminate them. I’d like to see it a bit healthier at 12z.

Any word from Gene Simmons at all and how they survived the ice and wind last night?

I was there for that ball drop, they did an amazing job clearing the snow out. It was cold as hell and something I’ll never do again. Flew back from FL leaving family behind to be with my then gf, had to fly out a day ahead due to the storm but made it back to NY ahead of it.

Stay with us now

I’m not giving up but I never thought the front end was going to produce there just hadnt been a strong storm signal. It seemed DOA to me even if cold was available. We need to keep blocking for mid to late month and pray PNA actually goes positive which is questionable now

That was the best weather day of the year. I'm sure everyone enjoyed it, well except MJO812. Bring on 80s and sunny any day over the slop we got this weekend.

Yeah there’s just too much tossing off and tossing of models. Especially op runs when folks don’t look at ensembles

To little to late for most except far eastern areas of SNE/NNE.

In the pic below, the car on the right is probably 75-80 feet away.