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I put together a long range pattern thoughts document for LOT staff a few days ago regarding the the impressive agreement in a cold and potentially active pattern with some staying power. It'll be primarily -EPO driven at first but then with the stratospheric warming/SPV stretching event ongoing, that tends to translate with blocking also developing in the AO and NAO domains. If we can keep the PNA neutral to negative, could set up for a rare snowy December for a good chunk of the region. For Chicago since 2010, the only Decembers that had both above normal snowfall and below normal temps are 2010, 2013, and 2016. Below normal temps but below normal snow occurred in 2017 and 2022. I know that Detroit had a very good December in 2017 from a much more favorable clipper track there. Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

Late afternoon, wintry vibe, getting dark fast. Crowds have left, being a Sunday in November. Folks have work and school on Monday. Key football games going. Its been an odd mix of November feel, with midwinter vibes to start the season up north.

What looks like a cold pattern becomes nearly dominated by the SER as we move up closer in time. And any stronger storms will just pump up that ridge and we’ll have what we’ve mainly had for the past 7 years (warm cutters and then dry cold). Seems set in stone at this point.

Almost as if Analogues were fed into it to get that outcome, lol

Thank you so much to the few who actually sit down and read this word-for-word....I know so few do given I don't have a significant following and I put so much time and work into it. Appreciate it.

Vote.

Models have been all over the place, especially with how they handle the PAC…. with wild swings from suite to suite. This is to be expected weeks out. JFC… everyone saying we’re doomed for December or worse - the entire winter - needs a break from the forum. Models have been overdoing the “upcoming warm up” for several months now and pretty much no models had us BN for November in mid October. There is a massive middle area between an epic winter and a total flop. Just keep your expectations in check. Can we perhaps keep the “winters over” posts in the banter or panic room threads?

Hopefully a few TC to track. Totally normal

Story this week is a windy and cold Thanksgiving! Perfect eating weather!

I'll post a December update either late this week or next weekend.

Gee, that December anomaly map looks familiar...where have I seen it before..maybe a few weeks ago? Oh, yea....

some things never change lol

Not that I observed.

Your writing and prose is topnotch. Always very well explained. Writing like that, with such great storytelling, is a massive skill in itself, even aside from the meteorological portion.

Model whiplash....12z CFSv2 and 18z CFSv2.

Even from NNE, that was good to click through and see. Graphics are great and that must've taken a ton of work to make happen. Kudos.

Not that it would have to be correlation, but...last year was one year where if ya underestimated it you were right, lol

Just a half inch today on colder surfaces at home. Roads wet. Got up to 34F as the warm front moved through. 2" at 3,000ft though.

You didn’t had flakes weeks ago?

Yea, first flakes here this evening.

This isn’t a new report but I just saw it and it has the latest Jamaica death toll: Death toll from Hurricane Melissa rises to 45 in Jamaica, with 15 others still missingThe death toll is expected to rise, with officials still trying to reach two towns that remain cut off since the catastrophic Category 5 storm made landfall in western Jamaica on Oct. 28. Helicopters have been dropping food and other basic supplies in those two communities, said Alvin Gayle, director general of Jamaica’s emergency management office. He said the storm has displaced 30,000 households, with 1,100 people still living in 88 emergency shelters that remain open. https://apnews.com/article/jamaica-hurricane-melissa-haiti-cuba-killed-deaths-77db005a55d415ae84b74f6680769273

Nice day, 59.2 for the high

WB 18Z AI EPS at Day 15. I see this as the glass half full rather than half empty; lot of cold air in the Northern Hemisphere to play with come the second week of December. Relax, enjoy Thanksgiving with your families this week, and count your blessings.

Calm evening on the lower Potomac.