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Morning AFD from LWX DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remnants of Hurricane Isaias to bring rain, breezy to windy conditions, and the threat of tornadoes Sunday. Hurricane Isaias is forecast to move north toward the TN Valley today as it weakens and eventually loses all of its tropical characteristics. The mid-level circulation strengthens and becomes a large cutoff low later tonight. To the east, surface high pressure over the Northeast today moves offshore off southern New England tonight. The interaction of Isaias` remnants to the west and surface high to the east will create a large area of convergence / broad frontal zone over the Mid-Atlantic. There is good model agreement that rain steadily moves from south to north this evening into tonight as forcing for ascent increases with some mid-level height falls in response to the approaching cutoff low. It`ll take a bit of time for the surface to truly saturate, so any rain late afternoon to this evening in Central Virginia is going to be light. Eventually, tropical moisture with PWATs at or above 2" surges in after midnight. It is worth mentioning again that conditions are favorable for a widespread soaking rain, and 00Z models have responded with more QPF across the region. Forcing for ascent increases tonight, and especially Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon as mid-level heights fall with the approach of the cutoff low. Enhanced low-level convergence and moisture transport will peak Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon. Strengthening easterly flow into the Blue Ridge could also produce enhanced rain amounts due to orographic effects. As a result, forecast rain amounts have increased to 1.5- 2.5", with locally higher amounts of 3-4" possible. No Flood Watch issued with this forecast update as the heaviest rain is forecast to occur in areas that can handle it, but will continue to monitor the latest guidance today. Another noticeable trend in the 00Z guidance is the higher probabilities for severe weather Sunday afternoon. The main synoptically forced rain moves north of the area early Sunday afternoon. Rapid height-falls and increasing low-level winds provide a few hour window where some breaks in the clouds area possible, leading to pockets of instability. A surface wave of low pressure moves right through our area Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate large, swooping hodographs, with ample shear in place to support organized severe convection. Clusters of thunderstorms develop along the leading edge of the surface low pressure, with tornadoes and damaging wind gusts as the main threats (looks mostly to be east of the Blue Ridge). The NAM12, RRFS, and 06Z HRRR all show this scenario. The big question still remains how much instability actually develops. SPC has introduced a Slight Risk for Sunday just to our south, with a Marginal Risk north to the MD/PA border. The strong mid-level circulation is going to bring windy conditions to the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge, starting late tonight into Sunday morning. Wind Advisories have been issued for downsloping easterly winds in the Alleghenies (western Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton Counties), and the Blue Ridge. The current forecast for peak wind gusts is 40-50 mph in the Alleghenies/Blue Ridge and 20-30 mph elsewhere. The remnants of Isaias push offshore Monday, bringing an end to any lingering showers. While conditions return humid and warm Monday, there likely won`t be much in the way of shower activity due to subsidence behind the departing trough.

Trajectory looks good. I know it's tropical but I don't hate seeing these big slugs of moisture coming from the south with cold air around this fall. I want my cabin in NY under the snow by February.

Also I don't see any convection along the coast that will rob us of moisture...

Getting some heavy rainfall here already this morning.

Yeah this plus the winds will cause some major issues in the mountains.

This thing is moving its rain shield north so fast it is almost in south Virginia!

I was on your side earlier with some of the points you were trying to make. Now you're just becoming annoying. I repeat. It didn't make landfall as a major hurricane.

Okay.. .give me 1 land report of 105 MPH sustained winds??? You will not even come close.

NHC had it at 105mph when it came ashore, so it wasn't major.

BS and prove it... give me one reporting station on land that had major sustain wind speed.

It didn't make landfall as a major.

Per this chaser who was right in the eye, the lowest SLP was 976.2 mb: https://twitter.com/JustonStrmRider/status/2108736015250702614?

I am with Coach... weakest major hurricane to hit the US. Yes the name will not be removed from the cycle.

What is this F*** double front Bull*** next weekend... all weekend. Another weekend ruin when I have a baseball tournament.

In other news, 2026 has now surpassed 1983. Now, 2026 is the season that has produced the second least ACE in the satellite era. We'll see if that holds or if some late season storm ups the ACE further. In an interesting parallel, the EPAC is to date at its second highest ACE recorded in the season, but it should soon reach #1.

At the risk of contributing further to a pointless argument: Maximum sustained winds should be the most intense (sustained) winds measured anywhere in the hurricane. The strongest winds are probably going to be offshore or right on the beach. What are the odds that there's an anemometer at that exact location? Then, there's the issue that the power could be out when the highest winds hit, and of course, winds of this intensity aren't exactly gentle to meteorological equipment. The maximum sustained winds I've seen recorded with this storm on land is 92.8 mph, which is 88% of NHC's max sustained winds at landfall and is nearly Category 2 strength. That's about as good as you're gonna get since we don't have recon over land to drop a sonde over the exact point with the most intense winds. Anyways, I'm now seeing nearly 700k customers without power in the region, I hope the recovery goes smoothly