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Early indication is a +NAO April, which is a bearish Atlantic season probability, with half of the analysis period still to go (Apr-May total is base period)

Gotta love KFOK, 24 tonight so far and 30 last night. Gotta be the best radiational spot on the north east coast. .

-17 SOI today, finally pushing the 30-day negative

Yesterday’s system was our biggest snowmaker of the month thus far, so I decided to head up to Bolton this morning to get in some turns in the fresh snow. I wasn’t exactly sure what I was going to find up at the hill, just a couple of new inches atop a hard base, or something more, but when I stepped out of my car at ~2,000’ into 4-6” of dry powder, the prospects were looking good. I toured in the 2,000’ – 2,700’ range and didn’t really find any increases in snow depths with respect to elevation aside from the occasional 7” measurement in sheltered hollows. The powder was staying light and dry even as of late morning, and I’d say it held about a third of an inch of liquid equivalent. That was enough for bottomless turns on low angle terrain, but anything steeper and I was quickly contacting the subsurface. The powder was dry enough to support really nice turns and speed even on lower angle pitches though, so that made for a fantastic descent. An added plus was that there was bright April sunshine out there, and it warmed you up quickly. Thankfully the air was dry enough to keep the powder in good shape despite the strong sun, at least through the morning hours. In terms of seasonal snowfall, this storm pushed all the resorts along the spine of the Northern Greens past the 300” mark, and Jay Peak past 400”, so some good seasonal benchmarks were reached with this one.

with DCA staying above freezing last night (and likely tonight), it looks like DC's last freeze was March 18th at 27F. First freeze was Nov 11 (31F).

Wildfire season will be in full swing sooner than later!

Hi/Lo 59.0/37.2 Current 39.7/32.7/calm/76% . 3" rain on the 5th

Also, May 9, 2020. Both of those happened after very warm and virtually snowless winters.

Felt like a late-winter day out there with that chilly wind. Had to do a double take after checking the temp too. 36 for a high is pretty insane in early April, all whacked out climo aside. Of course, I’m sure when I go away for a family wedding late next week we’ll be torching into the 70s lol.

29

This last 36 hours was a nice winter interlude in the growing momentum of spring. Snowing and winter conditions, then as soon as the sun comes out the vibe changes to spring.

Down to 33. Maybe one last night below 30.

I’ve not seen a snow pile in a month. That’s wild.

Fire weather is nice, dry weather. Would be nice to dry out. Anywhere below the snow line is just soggy. 28F.

The usual suspect, which is why I asked here. Can't believe this point n click baloney.

Almost had a home run on the SPC with a risk for all day slots except Day 8 - Broyles didn't contour the last and most elusive.

Let’s burn everything down dammit!

Cmon dude, you’re no eskimo. You should consider to amend your avatar. “Catastropheenie” has a sort of nice ring to it. Describes your preferences rather more accurately.

Rain Friday? Where are you seeing that in SNE? It’s mainly dry thru day 14

^What was most impressive is that the largest anomalies occurred in the south vs the north. It could have been up to 1.5 magnitude higher if the core anomaly was over the Upper Midwest and Montana. It was also impressive how monthly records were set with more than 10 days to go in the month.

This morning's low temperature in Central Park was 30°. That will likely be the last freeze this season. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle 50s tomorrow. Afterward, it will turn warmer to end the week and start the weekend. Temperatures will return to the 60s on Friday. The warmth will extend into the weekend. It could turn even warmer next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -17.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.494 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.0° (2.3° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

No measurable next 10-14 Can we get some decent fires ?

An April to remember?

FREE Weather Wizard III. I dont know if this is allowable within the regulations of this site. If not, many pardons. I wish to give away an unused Weather Wizard III as my moving away gift to anyone on the forum. Older technology, so maybe it can just be used for parts? I prefer not to ship. I live in Garwood NJ 07027.