All Activity

Definitely but that graph also has the ecmwf model climate and the prediction is weaker than that, too. A weaker pv and a tendency towards blocking in a very strong nino year doesnt seem too surprising to me.

Well look at that…. Rain on Sunday

Clean up in the winter merchandise aisle

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances increase Sunday into Monday, as the remnants of Isaias quickly move through the Commonwealth. Our ensemble prediction systems remain fairly consistent in showing a quick eastward movement of Isaias` remnants and associated moisture from the OH Valley across the Mid-Atlantic from later this weekend into early Monday. From this early vantage point, it looks like the most persistent/concentrated rainfall across Central PA will be centered on the Sunday afternoon to Sunday night period. Initial indications are that a combination of a short time window for heavier rainfall (most likely 12-18 hours, perhaps even less), plus a welcome recent stretch of drier conditions, should significantly mitigate the potential for sustained heavy rainfall/flooding. That being said, we`ll continue to watch the progress of this system closely over the coming days.

Agree that we aren't going to reach net zero by 2050s on our current trajectory. Not even close. But that isn't because renewables/batteries/EV can't replace a significant fraction of the fossil fuels used today by then. Its a question of political will not technology. Solar and wind grew 3X faster last year than nuclear did in its best year ever 40 years ago. Energy density doesn't translate into cost or offset other negative aspects. I'd love to see more nuclear but what is going to change to improve nuclear's trajectory?

54° torchish degrees.

It’s a bit wild lol

Isaias is already a bit lopsided to the east, but the center is secluded enough from both shear and dry air to continue to intensify. Maybe a small eye pops briefly, honestly the analog may be Sandy before Cuba landfall (at least in regards to a potent late season core surrounded by synoptic fuel). Isaias will be getting ripped apart upon landfall, but it will gain significant strength before doing that. Also the jet streak equatorward entrance region is going to fuel baroclinicty over the SE US. Not to be slept on, the tornado threat on the right side is going to be significant. Isaias will have a ton of energy to be conserved as it gets absorbed by the trough as landfall occurs, this will be an impactful event

Can’t believe that was six years ago already

If this one gets retired too, I suggest we just slip that letter before we tempt fate again. This is a lil eerie.

980.3mb extrapolated. Pressure falls continue. As the deep convection continues over the center we are probably on the cusp of significant intensification, even as you see some more hostile conditions on the western edge of the system. It's a race between this current intensification trend and when the conditions ultimately disrupt the center.

Looks like it's an AI vs physics model battle for the path of the storm in the Gulf. Google Deep mind apparently sends the remnants over East Tennessee/Georgia and the Carolinas. Other AI models lean more that way too. The physics models have it moving towards Memphis to the NW. Middle Tennessee looks to probably get a lot of rain with either path. The west or east side gets more or less depending on track. Gonna be interesting to see which one is better and if the AI models are able to outperform the physics based models this fall and winter. The NHC seemed to note that Deep Mind has been doing very well and shifted the path rightward some just based on it.

Waiting on one more center pass before going to bed...

You can see in this IR image that the environment isn't pristine, but there's just enough of a window to allow for the inner core to take shape. Now we're in the intensification phase and if the core can remain shielded from the shear and drier air to the west this has a chance to become a major before shear takes its toll on Friday. As for impacts beyond landfall, meaningful rain continues to look likely up and down the east coast, as the remnants of Isaias seem to get caught up in a subtle trough and get kicked eastward as it gains forward speed post landfall. It doesn't look like flooding rain, but I think we need a little more time to get a sense of the rain potential. What continues to be interesting to me is the potential for at least some favorable conditions for severe storms, especially if the timing ends up a bit slower and the mid level center passes to our west during daytime Sunday. From the SPC: For Sun/D5, the shortwave trough and remnants of the tropical cyclone will generally move northeastward toward the Appalachians and toward the Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic. It is possible that the upper system outruns the unstable warm sector, but at least a low end chance of severe is not out of the question.