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I’m concerned about our source regions this winter. I think it may be really hard for Canada to not be torching but I hope I’m wrong.

Humidity looks pretty relentless for the next 7 days.

Saturday could be a pretty good widespread day of storms with some strong-to-severe storms

Just hope for a roll of the dice KU this winter - with general snowfall expectations at basement level.

el nino going nuclear gonna give us such a weird winter, expectations for snow obv low but hopefully the raging pac jet delivers some weird wild weather to keep things interesting

warm and rainy

Looked that way down here earlier, but most of that faded. Just some normal cloudcover now, and looks to be breaking up a bit to our west.

somewhat persistent lakes trough keeping things manageable for now but looks to weaken/slide east idk about 80 but he'll certainly have multiple mid to upper 70 dp days into august here

To be fair, our last volcanic winter (post-Pinatubo) wasn't that severe. The period between 1991-96 was near normal temperaturewise, maybe a bit below normal. Once the 1997-98 el nino happened, things turned warmer permanently.

currently 77/75 in the 'hood, not a good day to work outside if you don't like being drenched in sweat

Won't have any time to dig into winter analysis but I really am curious how this winter will go. I do find it extremely hard to believe though this will not be a well above average for much of the U.S. With how expansive the 28-30C waters are (and still growing) expansive ridging is going to be too dominant. Hard to see anything really combating that. Probably be dealing with a raging jet too...but with that, maybe we get something and we benefit in a big way from a powerful jet

Hey Mike, no problem. I went outside of Chester County to find "neighborhood" stations within 30 miles of Coatesville1SW with enough consistent overlapping observations from 1941-1975. We found 6 potential additional “neighborhood” stations but only 2 had enough consistent data Holtwood and Ephrata over the years in question to add to the 3 main Chester County stations above. So what did the analysis find? All 5 raw stations (Coateville 1SW / West Chester 2NW/ Phoenixivlle 1E / Holtwood and Ephrata move together at the same statistically same cooling rate for the same years from 1941-1975 so there is no inconsistent cooling or warming trend for the control station in this analysis (Coatesville 1SW) based on the raw data across these stations. However, as we have found before - the overall NCEI Adjusted Chester County data while following the raw average temperature pattern consistently applied a solid ~1-3 F post hoc adjustment to Coatesville 1SW and all of the 5 stations were chilled by NCEI lower than any of the 5 in the NCEI Chester County wide adjusted annual average temperatures. So for essentially the entire period! This was a clear offset, not a trend divergence. So again what station if not a neighboring station within 30 miles of Chester County was NCEI using to apply non-stop chilling adjustments to Coatsville 1SW to adjust the raw temperatures to even lower levels than they were all showing for all those years? So we know Coatesville 1SW was not adjusted cooler due to Time of Observation bias that was ruled out by majority 8am readings (if anything one could argue for a slight warming adjustment for homogenization) No station moves resulted in significant temperatures changes that were not statistically the same as the other area station trends so we still have no support for the individual Coatesville1SW chilling NCEI adjustments and no support for the overall Chester County historical 1941-1975 chilling adjustments made by NCEI.

Dude we’re trolling. Go back to working on your outlook.

Yes, he is 100% making fun of all the X and bluesky posters being overly dramatic about everything

The first 5 days of August only produced .28" of rain. The GFAF model gives Waynesboro a 55% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon between 3 - 6.

Okay.

Fun fact: as of yesterday afternoon I have recorded more rain in the first 5 days of August than I did in the entire month of July.

82/78 9:30 am soup

Not really seeing any 80 degree dews on any model runs boss. Maybe over by you near the cornfields and points west. GLOV looks to avoid anything extreme. Will def hit low 70s but we had that this week already, nothing noteworthy.

Instability pretty large tomorrow. Shear certainly doesn't look great so probably looking at some pulse type. Will probably see a ton of lightning in any storms and a localized FF risk where storms occur.

Was this @dendrite's siting recommendation for you? I was going to ask for the link but may pass...I can probably find an old couch or washing machine on the side of the road to bring home and get setup properly

wide range of precip totals yesterday region wide - some spots received inches others 0. I can see why this can prevent drought conditions from getting much better sooner then later.