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In general when you see all that mess into WP,you'd think its gonna warm up in our parts with the MJO signal relative strong and you also see where the MJO RMM'S do funky stuff into P6,past the mid month.MJO is still moving even tho the RMM'S says it isnt,my thinking is after that mess clears,the RMMS will correct itself and show a fast moving signal until they catch up,just destructive interference from Rossby and Kelvin

this system is honestly annoying the crap out of me at this point and I'd rather just get to the 18th, which has had a better chance all along

The shit solution on the ICON also opens the door to the 18th. Similar to the 6z GFS. That’s the one to watch.

Rainfall was sparse up this way from event just ended. I did better than I thought by a couple of tenths but just NW of here it was a struggle to reach 1/4". Overall the dry pattern continues. We're going to need a significant pattern shift to get some coastal systems or inland runners to boost the long term rainfall totals. And before anyone says "what dryness" see the attached link. It has been dry across NJ for the last 12+ months. https://www.njweather.org/content/quickly-out-gatedrought-persists-december2025-annual-report

Southern stream be like

See what everything else does, but it appears we are going back to our regularly scheduled boning.

The appears to be some.comvection forming upstream, as Tyler mentioned last night. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Ugh, running away from each other…

Yeah we just have to hope that the cold air which returns around 1/14 can set up some semblance of a wintry pattern. We thawed very well over the past week and a return to colder weather would ideally bring some chances for winter weather but we've seen stranger things happen at this point

Amidst all the discussion of a possible strong WWB this month, the development of a pretty strong EWB slipped under the radar. In fact, the past two days have seen the SOI at or above +20. Interestingly enough, a slightly weaker EWB (just below +20) preceded the record-January WWB of 2017 by about a week.

My contribution for today. Not many changes at hr 30 on the 12z GFS.

Plenty of sustained cold. Many will be below normal for next week. We live in the subtropics….it wants to snow here for about 4 weeks a year. Always important to remember. Plenty still to track. And it’s almost always thread the needle at this latitude. When we get crazy cold, it usually goes dry. We want to be right on the gradient for a chance at big snows.

Light snow in the Valley and roaring wind at times.

lol

Lot's of energy expended last few days on this upcoming non event. It never had any kind of remote support from ANY ensemble guidance and the best modeling we have (ECMWF) never had much of anything. GFS is a follower not a leader. Without some kind of steady multi cycle support from at least the CMC or better yet the EURO best to ignore it. In my opinion the GFS will never be the first to sniff anything out 3-5+ days in advance. MAYBE if it has some ensemble support from its own members it might deserve some attention otherwise I ignore it. For now I'm more interested in the return to colder starting later next week and beyond.

That trailing s/w stays out in front and never phases in. 480dm thicknesses into the GL at the end of the run though. Not boring!

It dont look as brutal as it has been this time.The ensembles all of them seem to struggle to even get into the 40's,so maybe it wont be that bad.

Noticed little or no comment and no wind advisories for what I think will be a notable 1-5 hour burst of wind this evening that impacts air travel an maybe a few downed branches-power outages... I think this will evolve as the upper 5H trough etc swings neutral and intensifies in its passage tonight. All yours... going to the movies and see some ping pong. The way the wind will show itself: right now, where it's downward transferring from is light. BUT, modeling continues to show rapid development of a strong wind field over 60 MPH at 5000 feet in southern PA/southern NJ 5P-8P, then that shifts northeast across northern PA, northern NJ/LI and se NYS 9PM-1AM with winds at 5000 feet further intensifying, then this departs PA/NJ for CT/MA in the 2A-6A Monday time frame. Soundings suggest AT Least Ridges above 1000 feet will gust briefly 50-55 MPH tonight. I suspect the valleys will be 45-50 MPH for an hour or two after nightfall. Explicit modeling has a little less than I expect so my confidence in wind driven isolated power outages and winds over 45 MPH is a little less than I'd like but I can't ignore some other data sets. Scattered wind and snow shower impacts this evening. I only commented since I didn't see much chatter about this

Fropa on the Icon.

The same northern stream issues we've had for a while now. It's too far east and can't phase, so no storm can come up the coast. Also pretty much ruins the chances for the storm after that too, everything is shunted too far east.

A lot of snow squall warnings on the Allegheny Front and Laurel Highlands. Maybe we get something this afternoon?

I’m not yet. But even a little snow after this warm break would be nice.

Last n9ight was basically a coating, Still watching the 16-19th for something more significant.

RGEM obviously wouldn't work out but it did trend to the NS diving down more SW. Can't believe we're already at "extrapolate the mesoscales" for this lol.\ Edit: Also the RRFS A digs more thru 64hrs. But my read on that model so far is... not good? Am I imagining that?