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"Details remain uncertain, but there is a consensus across ensemble guidance for a potential system to bring showers sometime Saturday." Like clockwork.

judging by the 45 degrees this morning, maybe this will be the summer that wasn't. I remember we had a summer that wasn't back in the mid '80's , I can't remember the year though.

I will not

Yeah half of the area is in a severe drought with no rain in sight.

It definitely didn't age well lol

So here we are. June 1st and the start of meteorological summer. Will the rollercoaster ride continue, or will we finally sustain normal to above normal temps with good thunderstorm chances?

The title of this thread is terrible. The first sentence should be deleted.

No, 69F is today’s 1,100ft average based on MPV norms. BTV is 74F. In another few days it ticks up to 70-75F.

June DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.1 2.4 1.2 3.0 1.4 0.8 2.8 2.3 1.8 100 95 94 94 94 98 98 115 89 posted 1:05 AM EDT June 1st

That's tough that you guys missed out. It was a very rainy last 9 days of the month here, with nearly 7 inches for the month, mostly falling over those 9 days. The heavy storms on Friday into Saturday came in at 2.95 inches on its own. Hopefully we can all get some rain tomorrow. The weeks looks dry after that.

Really shafted in Lee and Wise Counties over the last 10 Days. 2.75" Total here. 3.69" Monthly Total. Over three quarters of an inch below average.

2015's big +PDO is starting to diverge us in the NW, US through the 2nd half of May and now heading into June. Watch out expecting a big Winter month or two like that year, because the PDO was >+1 in 2015. Favorable NAO can help though, of course.

The latest model data to me is suggesting the Omega block sticks around a while longer but at times its position shifts a bit east allowing pieces of the hot high pressure ridge to move east and into and out of the NYC Metro region. So we go back and forth with 2 days of warmth/heat and then 2-3 days of cool weather. I suspect over time later in June or early July that the warmer/hotter weather may tend to own a little more of the time but I think the unusually amped flow will continue to allow cold fronts to move across the northeast. WX/PT

https://x.com/runews/status/2060887383738921298

no other shots of this happening? that's strange

These annual ENSO threads have always included US winter forecast discussion.

Maybe we can start a winter thread and keep this one strictly ENSO instead of posting temp and precip maps for winter

What's your average high up there at 1k? 63-65?

Ninja’d ^^^

Need some summer to go along with this long daylight. I’d take consistent 70s at this point.

Hopefully a wetter and not to hot overall summer.

Sunday June 7, 2026 3:28PM EDT High impact tornadic and flooding weather event is currently underway. Thunderstorms and embedded supercells will continue to train over the same areas stretching from the Charlottesville, VA vicinity up through northern VA and into north/central MD just west of the two major beltways exasperating the flash flooding situation in these areas. Strong low-level SSE winds continue to bring in low/mid 70sF dewpoints beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (7+ C/km). This is resulting in over 3000J/kg MLCAPE and with the strong LL shear in place (effective SRH of 250-450 m2/s2) and strong deep-layer shear in general (~60 kt EBWD) organized supercells with be maintain for the remainder of the afternoon and well into the evening hours before the best dynamics lift to the northeast. Tornadic supercells will train over the same or similar spots over the next several hours as this broken line ever so slowly crawls eastwards into the metros (Individual storm motions: 230/40kt. Broken line motion: 310/5kt.) With the dynamics and instability some tornadoes may become strong to significant and possibly long-tracked. Other severe hazards with these storms include severe winds (50-65+kts) and very large hail(2-2.5”+). The other highly impactful threat from these storms will be the major flash flooding. Much of the area will end up with 3 to 6 inches of rain with up to 8”+ in some locations.

Looks dry and mild through Saturday, a few showers Sunday/early Monday then retorch next week. Overall summer vibes

The new Cansips for DJF fwiw is along with the stronger Nino a bit colder than the prior run in the E US. I think it still has more correcting to do. Note by the way that these temp maps use the somewhat colder 1981-2010 climo: Old: New: It’s a bit wetter in the SE to Mid Atlantic and a bit drier in a good portion of the Midwest, OH Valley, and MidSouth: Old: New: