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Agreed but we have to watch the SE ridge since the PNA is going to be negative.

We know what happens next

def taking on a more traditional snow storm evolution, obviously slp track trending wrong way for non-wisconsin posters but still time there idk about u guys but i'm very over the strung out and sw cutoff rigmarole we've been dealing with the past few years, remember negatively tilted troughs?

Got a model run spitting this out at Day 7 and mostly crickets? We've matured.

You usually are sitting pretty good. Lol. Im forever riding the line I swear. I can't afford any north bumps.

if I dont get 17” like the gfs showed last night im rioting

Yeah but that's kinda dumb to say fire him for that. Failure on the OL is not a fireable offense for crying out loud. Do people realize how monumental of a change that would be? There are other parts of this team EDC did a great job with drafting and building. (Even trades he made on defense helped the pass rusher not be AS awful and freed up KH) You can say he royally screwed up on the line without jumping all the way over there. People don't know what a bad GM actually looks like, lol And EDC is not what is preventing us from winning a SB: Harbaugh is. Now, an aside about the trade deadline: You don't see OLs traded very often that time of year--it seems like teams are less willing to break up a line even in a losing season. Even so...he needed to do more in the off-season. But I suspect it's gonna be different this coming off-season because Lamar is probably gonna demand it before signing anything!

Some models had been dumping a bunch of the energy into the sw US and cutting it off, but now they are all trending toward ejecting it into the midwest this weekend. The Friday night snow is looking a bit lighter, but now a stronger low blows up the snow across Iowa Saturday into Saturday night. As long as it doesn't trend any farther north, which every model this morning has done, I should be good.

Look at the GFS! Its close!

The modeled pattern now looks more like Dec 07 or Dec 08 than Dec 2010. Still great for northern areas, more dicey SE due to the lack of blocking. @40/70 Benchmark appears to have had the right idea based on recent changes to the long range guidance.

Warmth vanished on the gfs

Who ?

Even with a very strong -EPO +PNA this fall on the storm days, the Western Atlantic ridge found a way to flex. The composite below is for the 11 wettest days of fall in NYC. The main storm track was still through the Eastern Great Lakes.

A big part of the problem nowadays is flooding the general public with unrealistic expectations, then when it fails, they lose all trust in the “weathermen”. We have pro mets (no not on here) blindly hyping “MJO phase 8!!!”, speaking in declaratives without any context like it’s always a guaranteed magical light switch and using/hyping extreme analogs like December, 1983, December 1989 and December, 2010, telling people that it’s going to be a redux. When the public sees that and it ends up failing, they lose trust in the profession

Its quite possible with the PV press.

right.. something seems odd with that tho. verbaitm would be raining on our parade hoping its just models being models between runs and not trend

Little NW trend on the 12z GFS.

Def a lot lore interesting on GFS for 12/2-12/3. Still selling that even for now…early if it happens.

That ext Euro phase 8 lasts 11 days, which would be the longest in Dec since 1975. I just hope it actually gets there and stays for awhile rather than curl back to 7 to stay.

Rather have a juiced STJ and storm chances vs the northern stream dominant during Nina’s. That causes SWFE/cutter favored patterns and Miller Bs that can develop too late. I’d say I-84 is the cutoff for where Nina is a better winter on average vs Nino.

The orientation of temp departures this November is absolutely nothing like the top 3 warmest novembers. We finished in the top 20 warmest in the top 3 warmest conus Novembers, and will finish this November colder than avg.

Wouldn't surprise me. WAA usually wins. But still several days out. A lot can change. For better or worse

God luck with that. This is basically every run of the GFS in the longer range...

its not impossible - we are heading into a more favorable pattern for cold/snow events - it has snowed during this time period many times before - worth tracking for sure..........

Gonna be rain by tomorrow’s runs isn’t it?