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Pretty sure that map will end up being quite correct.

Tempus fugit. By the middle to end of next week the Spring peeper chorus will will be underway. The caddisflies started emerging today. With the exception of ticks, It'll still be a few more weeks for most biting insects.

I seldom cut the lawn before late April or early May, even in the warmest springs. If I did like I'm told and threw down early season fertilizer, i suppose I might have to cut it earlier. Most years I intend to fertilize twice but only get to it once. Somehow the lawn stays green. Less is more.

58 here. I bet I hit 60 tomorrow.

Hey-my town made the "mid blue" color haha!

Yeah that's too bad that the data isn't available anymore. 1978 was definitely more widespread large totals over a much larger area. Personally, I still think that outside of northern RI, 2026 had bigger totals for SEMA/RI but maybe it's just a recency bias on my part. I didn't live through 1978 so I wouldn't know any better.

It will turn briefly milder tomorrow to start the weekend. The temperature could approach or reach 50°. Colder air will return for Sunday through Tuesday. Monday could see the temperature top out near or even below freezing in New York City. After mid-week, a warming trend will commence. The second week of March could feature springlike readings. Long Island and coastal sections could be noticeably cooler than interior sections on account of a chilly onshore flow. Winter 2025-2026 will is on track to join Winters 1960-1961 and 1977-1978 as the only winters with two or more 10" snowstorms, a seasonal mean temperature of 32° or below and seasonal snowfall of 40.0" or above. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +13.35 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.344 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.4° (4.5° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.9° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. February 2026 will likely be the coldest La Niña February since February 1934. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

dt thinks winter is over ridge in east vortex stretches east west in canada.

I checked. They reported 0" for two days (2/21 and 2/22). Centerport observer reported 2" snow depth on the 22nd and Cutchogue reported 3". The old snow melts a lot slower than fresh stuff like we had on Wednesday. Even with these warm days having 8, 10 or 12 hours below freezing at night freezes up the pack and retards melting. It will accelerate as bare patches grown and more sun hits bare ground. I get why it seems to melt out so fast in the city (above freezing 24 hours), but the way snowpack disappears at times at ISP has puzzled me. They probably have a big open area to make observations, which is proper. My "open area" is level but gets a combo of sun and shade, which is the best I can do in a wooded neighborhood. That's definitely part of the difference, but not all of it as I still see snow in fields at times when the airports are 0. We hit 48 (47.8) here today. When I took a walk with my wife it felt like 70 in the sun despite the deep snow cover. Down to 35 now. If you drive down main Street in Smithtown, you might not think it has snowed. The town has been busy carting it all off to somewhere else.

They were saying it was MJO related, but MJO is so tropospheric vs the Polar Stratosphere.. I think larger things are more correlating both is the argument. The anti-correlation is pretty strong though, -0.25 over the N. Pole is 62.5% chance at favoring cold ENSO vs warm ENSO, but that's probably because of not enough examples. It was actually pointed out last March that SSW would jump start El Nino, but the anti-correlation worked last March, as we had cold ENSO later this year.

I think December 2020 was the storm Binghamton had 40 inches. Nothing to do with lake effect. It was that whole band from Binghamton up towards Albany. It just stayed there and snowed.

almost 100% sunny and in the 50's here

I agree ,should we .If we get a SSWE,which seems possible in this time of season after MET spring this should cause the Jet to shift south.The wave lenghts arent as long with a SSWE than compared to actual winter time with a SSWE sorta speaking,so it all general happens 1-2 weeks later after a SSWE But this has all the potential to be a quite active period upcoming.JMHO

That has to be some sort of record! I think we all know the late season sun angles are brutal on snowpack, but I feel like they’re more brutal this year! If we could all choose a date to have a major winter storm, it would probably be December 21. [emoji3]

I’m always like damn, that’s nuts. But then they think the same when SLK and HIE are 32F in August.

Was 80F in Dallas today.

So sue me!

That’s a bummer, been there. It could be worse though, just read Tim Kelly’s update. There will be a touch of fresh and you can wait to get out a little later in the day and let things soften up. Could be pretty fun, but not the epic powder days they are known for, I get that disappointment for sure.

I have a hard time envisioning the physics that link a SSW to a subsequent el nino (or la nina). I imagine the top-down effects would be confined mainly to the polar domain or mid latitudes, but not tropics. Conversely, enso is driven mainly by tropical ocean-atmosphere (KWs and WWBs mostly) and then those forcing effects propagate to mid- and polar-latitudes via rossby waves, and then bottom-up into the stratosphere. But the other way around? I dunno.

Probably cause it's nothing worth posting

Not seeing any hint of that on guidance. Not sure gut feelings mean a whole hell of a lot.

Yeah, NESIS sucks. I have measured more and less in every snowstorm in VA. They probably go through Wakefield and they have been way low lately.

You missed the historical snow band loser!