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Convective feedback error. Jumps the low 300 miles east of Hatteras over a thunderstorm cluster. Thats the NAM we've come to know over the years.

Wound up with an inch on the nose here from the convective showers this afternoon. Luckily not much sun to melt it in between downpours.

Sleet is right above snow in the mPING app so maybe a typo I'm thinking. If they realized an error they could have submitted an updated report 30 seconds later.

Nam at 84 is pretty much never right so still got many runs of the Nam before it even has a clue.. maybe

Flakes are here

Still party sunny, but snow flurries falling. 35.2

Yeah, its better but wouldn’t do it if it went beyond 84 is my weenie guess.

We’re pretty capped on this storm IMO to someone maaybeee getting to 8” if the ULL pass is ideal. There are probably things that can be done to try and better lockdown an area-wide 2-4”, but I’m not sure we can improve much on the 12z offerings from the GFS/Euro

How many more improvements can be had before it’s enough? I've been hearing improvement for 48 hours now and still not there

It’s an improvement but not enough

Looks like the best echos are going to pass north of me, more over Sussex County. Still I think I get clipped by the southern end. Will keep you posted.

Talk dirty

I like the look of the NAM at 69…digging pretty good.

Chuck shouldn’t be talking about the NAM until 0z

Honestly probably what will happen.

A trained spotter ought to know the difference.

Partly sunny and breezy. 35.3F

Not sure how that's relevent...point is PD II wasn't heavy and wet for most.

Did ok up here this morning.

Oh brother, NAM about to do NAM things.

December 2009 and January 2022 were drier and fluffier events relative to February 2003.

Kudos to Euro Weeklies for having +PNA switch week of 1/12-8 as far back as this one issued 12/24: 1st run w/notable hint of +PNA; it never looked back/kept strengthening it though it mistakenly had -NAO: Today: strong +PNA, no -NAO Today’s 1/26-2/2 subtly suggesting +PNA may return then: Otherwise, maps today mild for bulk of Feb fwiw. Hoping these will change and end up wrong!

I had like a foot...plenty of events that the vast majority can't even recall that I would take over that.

Another squall. Same intensity as the earlier event.