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Already 68° off of a min of 51.8°. Pawpaws and catalpas are waking up.

Hopefully we can bring small pox back so kids don’t have to worry about that evil pollen.

Significant improvements on this weeks drought monitor for pretty much everywhere in region besides northern piedmont of NC. Some areas have gone all the way to just the “abnormally dry” category and much of SC and eastern NC is now only in “moderate” category. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Southeast

The issue I do have with 97-98 is a lot of these wintery stretches were so marginal with 30-35 degree days. Factor in 2-3 decades of warming and you get the idea.

Yeah I don’t expect a wall to wall pac jet extension the entire season, otherwise LAX might end up underwater. Looking at 97-98 here, there were a couple of 5-7 day wintery stretches in december, january maybe 1 week tops, and a couple more stretches in Feb and a couple more in March. Jan was the least snowiest at 9.5” while December had close to 30”. Feb/March 15-20” each. Below normal season but obviously not 0 or even top 10 lowest.

1991 is the only one of the high-end el nino events that really compares. There was a heat wave at the end of May, and that really set the tone for the entire summer. 2015, to a lesser extent, but we didn't have the warmth in June, but rather in the back half of the summer into September. Both of those years had a borderline warm neutral/weak el nino leading up to it. We didn't have that in the lead up to this year. I expected this summer to be a textbook pre-nino summer that was cooler than recent summers, like 1972, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2009, and 2023. If we can't get even get a cool summer in this setting, I wonder what it will take to get one. (Short of a major volcanic eruption, like Pinatubo in 1991, which caused 1992 to be notably colder, I probably don't see it happening any time soon, if not ever.)

Yeah I am just not ready for almost 100F On Sunday.

Low of 53 as we start to warm up a bit today but still gorgeous weather.

IMO, this one is a lock for a top 3 super El Niño event, possibly even surpassing the last 4 super events. I also agree with Paul Roundy and Ben Noll that it stays east-based like 1997, but like you said, the east-based structure may not end up being important

Yup

man, the mugwort is getting bad. So hard to get rid of, but thankfully it's in a lawn expansion project that I did several years ago, but don't care much about, but still, stuff is a bitch to get rid of without nuking it.

oh..heh... just realized no one's in here. Geez, better go make sure the Iran-Russian-China axis didn't smuggle a nuke up the Potomac

I wonder if these low wind open sky lasing days over the nearby ocean will elevate the SSTs some

Heh...it's rare to do this once with near/at 0% coverage, but this is the 2nd day, back-to-back, that sat presented this at a regional scale

Looks like the GFS is still just going to ruin Sunday even if it is fed the necessary grid data that would not ruin Sunday lol. The Euro and CMC salvage that day with a cleaner fropa - though couldn't rule out terrain enhanced CB dappled around. As Jerry and I were discussing yesterday, the cold push behind that boundary isn't nearly as impressive. Weak as modeled, taking us back to seasonal as opposed to that 48 F shit. Regardless of the GFS' beady-eyed OCD agenda to destroy mirth on weekend days ... it's own MEX machine numbers are still near 80 from BDL-FIT to ASH-MHT, fwiw We probably have finally graduated to 2026's summer. We'll see what it has in store... After a possible run in with renewed heat middle of next week, there may either be a transient seasonal cool down.. or possibly we evolve a quasi Bahama Blue pattern.

Yea, I don't even think it's worth sweating those details....usually when it gets this powerful, it's safe to just concede warmth on par with an east-based event. But there are other factors that could foster the development of a favorable stretch(es), especially later in the season.

48 was lower than I imagined we would be last night. huh. Considering machine numbers tickle the chode hairs of 90, a 40+ is gonna challenge some delta records for the date.

good line of higher CAPEed convection 21z on Saturday outta do the trick.

You guys got me searching obs…saw this for the first time… KMWN 032352Z 29017KT 85SM FEW180 FEW200 SCT220 10/04 RMK SUN DOGS 10111 20099

Need a METAR code for pollen now BLPN

Very warm early June pattern with 90s next few days then a pullback and more 90s next week. As we saw with the early 100° heat back in May, this is warmer going into at least the early summer than past super El Niño events The extensive nature of the +30C warm pool from the IO over to the PMM region has resulted in competing Niña-like and Nino-like influences. The warmest days are what we typically see with La Niña early in the summer. The recent cooler from the Memorial Day weekend to a few days ago were more Nino-like. But the warmer days were of a higher magnitude than the cooler days were. Some spots set or tied their all-time May monthly maximum temperatures. It could also be the drought feedback across the CONUS is contributing to this unusual early summer warmth for a super El Niño. Along with the -PDO and continuing warm pool east of Japan. Plus these are our first super El Niños only 3 years apart leading to another global baseline temperature jump over such a short period of time.

kinda like vaccines, amirite?

With the help of @Suchit0623 i have remapped the Blizzard of 1888 with 168 new snowfall reports from NWS COOP, climate sites and Judd Caplovich's book "Blizzard! The Great Storm of 1888." The general idea of the snowfall distribution is about the same but with significantly more reports i was able to really narrow down banding especially in CT along with the sharp cut off in E MA. The subsidence from the intense bands in central CT and LHV showed up nicely in a relative screw zone from SW Fairfield to Putnam/Dutchess where amounts dropped off from 40-50" to <20" in a narrow area. Reports were very thin in S NY and NJ unfortunately. Southern New England, Tri-State and CT maps are up as well. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/mar-11-14-1888

Huge snowstorms in this area were 1979, 1983, 1987, 1993 (some parts), 1996, 2000 (some parts), 2003, 2010 and 2016. We are way overdue for a home run monster.

Before seeing this sort of stuff, and like that car interior last year, I never really appreciated not having them here. What a menace.