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We're taking the father-in-law up to Road America on Sunday. Long-range NAM has a rainout... but it's on an island, and it's long-range NAM, so taking with a giant grain of salt. Most of the rain should stay south

Turned mine off today. Best climo

seems sketchy here. temp went up, DPwent up, and pretty breezy. now in a downpour. Hold me.

Have to watch for rapid destabilization out ahead of the line given the sky conditions and rapid jump in temps...may have a similar affect to parcel acceleration that you would see with steeper lapse rates because the air is becoming less buoyant rapidly.

You gotta be careful with TVS in setups like this with very strong shear. I don't think Radarscope does this but these are probably elevated TVS signatures...so there are probably 2 or 3 bins (forget the minimum requirement...think its 3) on successive scans meeting shear threshold and above a certain distance above the ground.

This could be fun... we clearly have a warm frontal thrust/wedge now up to EEN and we're opening the skies to sun. Temp popped 4-6F in the last hr west of ORH up through FIT and across my region. 79/67

Yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro increases its ONI Nino 3.4 forecast plumes a bit more with the coming July 5th update.

yeah SPC mentioned 'low top' in their coverage. I suspect they went tor out of respect for the llv jet in the area.

Decent destabilization going on ... 77 to 80 suddenly with 66 dps. Sun splashing and a nice llv S jet wobbling the trees. any thunderstorms rollin into this will be set up with +helicity

Nothing is really standing out in terms of rotation. OF course much of this stuff is in some awful radar coverage but going up a tilt or so, nothing is really impressive so a sign anything llvl is probably minor as well. Don't think there is enough instability right now to really get something spinning. May actually have to watch into Berkshire County...some higher sfc vorticity there per mesoanalysis with increasing 3km Cape.

try cologne mostly sunny and quite windy here, about as windy as this wind pit ever gets

Saw it earlier looked good

From this?

And we still have a lot of 1-scan wonders from DVN to pad the total with during derecho season coming up.

cells firing east or the Berk as the airmass begins to destabilize and MLCIN has eroded.

Almost a half inch in 15 minutes as the line came through. Just over 2” on the day.

Maybe you should go look at the drought monitor map. Most of our area is now in a severe drought. Obviously you're not a farmer or gardener so you don't understand how rough these conditions are.

What a bust. Had a 1 minute shower early this morning.

BE GLAD YOU ARE NOT IN TEXAS right now. It is 91 degrees. That's really not so bad. That's below average. But that DEWPOINT is 80 degrees and it is NOT going down. It may rise with time. It feels like 111 degrees. Its gonnabe even hotter today. The forecast is for 98. With an 80 DP that may boost our apparent temperature to near 120. Deep South Texas is expecting apparent temperatures late this afternoon to top out near 124 degrees. The wind helps not at all. It is about 7 mph out of the South Southeast.

39 MPH gusts here

Sunderland vt needs a warning

Growing up near ALB, I used to be furious every time Saratoga would get crushed. Saratoga to Bennington County in VT was always the path of destruction.

Luckily, a drought in a region like ours without a well defined dry season like the West into the Plains hasn’t historically become as severe yet since we average much more precipitation here. The worst 1960s droughts in the Northeast didn’t have the same consequences as the Dust Bowl in the Plains during the 1930s or the historic drought issues being experienced in the West during recent times. Yes, the NYC reservoirs are doing much better since the last water restrictions in 2001-2002. But agricultural and gardening interests will have issues in a warmer climate era with the heat causing more evaporation than the old days. My area near the CT Shore had one of its driest summers last year and all the vegetation was brown. Even some local reservoirs dipped to low levels leading to some watering restrictions. Some smaller water district areas like portions of NJ they are getting close to having water supply conservation again after some reservoirs running very low a few years ago. We need more rain to remain out of drought since our climate has become so much warmer. Plus the expansive nature of the drought across the entire CONUS will have major impacts for many areas. So just by saying that NYC is doing fine compared to 2001-2002 misses the other consequences of expanding drought.

the fail mode is having the low trend too far north at the last minute but the ai eps has been steadfast