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Very insightful, and dead-on.

The biggest source of spread has been the placement, tilt and shape of the primary max +PV/advection lobe as it comes into the upper Midwest. Most earlier solutions were emphasizing the middle of the axis to develop the primary PV later on, but generally this process favors the far end of the trough axis. Not really shocking to see it trend that way. I have my feelings about the NAM too, but given the sensitivity of the setup, models are still almost certainly still underdispersed wrt the true spread of the probability space, so seeing some notable dprog/dt on that feature is a good thing.

Lol thats terrible. I just saw it!

The cold continues.

Brian .. he feels better about it today because he's reading the room, just like he does the mark in a sale's meeting. That's what he does for a living, quite successfully, too. It's his superpower. He could sell a dog-shit taco to Julia Child, and even get her to compliment the spicing... We all have one - though most of us go through life having never figured out what ours, is ... He would probably make a Poker player, come to think of it, because as we all know, in Hold 'em statistics wins some hands but he who reads the room wins the big pot. He's like a social NMB model... just reading the room and figuring for a consensus.

Ok so what is up with this. Mr.J is headed into the office this morning. Looks like I need to alert him.

Mentioned 1996 yesterday…that was progged south and never was supposed to get up here either. We know how that worked out.

Off topic, how cold is it? This is the up in the inlet at Johnathan Landing Magnolia Delaware. No boats going out for awhile.

It’s like Drake Maye running a naked bootleg

I feel like there will be snow in the air on Saturday/Sunday at some point around here. How much, haven’t got a clue.

Every time I see this I think of Wacky Packages from the 70’s.

Just looking to add a few inches to the already big piles lol

good grief

Lets try and get the H5 cutoff from diving into the extreme SE and keep it moving across NC at least. I would feel more confident then. Lots of vorts flying around through Canada helping supress that feature on various models.

I asked ChatGPT why DC sucks at getting snow. The bottom part had me rolling. Short answer: DC lives in meteorological heartbreak zone. Longer, funnier answer: 1. It’s right on the rain–snow knife edge DC winters hover around 30–35°F. That’s the danger zone where a storm can be this close to snow… then a whisper of warm air turns it into cold rain or slush sadness. 2. The ocean keeps messing things up The Atlantic acts like a space heater. Coastal storms pull in milder air off the water, which warms DC just enough to ruin snow totals. Inland places (PA, upstate NY) don’t get betrayed like this. 3. Warm air sneaks in above your head Even when it’s cold at the surface, DC often gets a warm layer a few thousand feet up. Snowflakes fall, melt mid-air, and arrive as rain. Classic fake-out. 4. The jet stream rarely commits For big snow, DC needs the jet stream to dip just right. Usually it’s either too far north (cold but dry) or too far south (wet but warm). Timing has to be perfect—like parallel parking during an earthquake. 5. Geography = no elevation, no help DC is flat and low. Elevation helps air stay colder. That’s why western MD and WV get dumped on while DC gets… vibes. 6. Climate change is making the curse worse Winters are warmer overall, so marginal storms that used to snow now rain. The big blizzards still happen—but less often and with more emotional damage. In summary: DC isn’t bad at snow. It’s just exceptionally good at almost snow. Every winter is a buildup → hype → betrayal → memes → repeat.

A safe bet right now is the ULL moisture at the start. That's barely 2.5 days out at this point. The bigger question is what interactions happen after that. Everything is still on the table for the eastern valley region. At the end of the day someone is going to be just too far west and will watch a county over get some snow. This does remind me a lot of the December 2010 storm. I believe it was also some ULL moisture to start and then the coastal backed another batch over the mountains. It was also a last second thing.

Moving day!

I should have picked Hartwood when I had the chance 25 years ago. But I needed a better commute...and look at me now. Wishing I was in Hartwood. Seriously it could come down to 10s of miles. I've seen it happen where the snow line approaches and collapses south. But I am pulling for you. At least you know if I am snowing then you are. Can't say the same for me this go around.

I’m talking in comparison to just SE in CT. We got boned bad from monster virga here. She we picked up 8-9”, but nothing like what it could have been.

Agreed. Today’s the Big day for the global runs, adjustments, alignments, etc etc… Tomorrow is when we can really start looking at the mesoscales. 3 days out today, 2 days out tomorrow. .

I’m feeling much better today vs yesterday. This is going to be a good one

Looks like SLK has shit the bed

TWC also hugs the GFS and uses that as their main guidance when forecasting totals. I had a friend who was an intern there and he told me they always use the GFS as the “base” and will look at a mix blend of their own in house models, but when they forecast the totals it’s the GFS being used mainly. They hardly ever take the Euro into account. .

Yeah, I'm looking for at least a small tick north across more 12z models, not just the GFS/GEFS. If that happens, then it's game on. If not, well....