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Could be a dry autumn stretch, should be some good December rains tho’.

The problem with that is, whatever is happening at the time is correlated to the linear rise in temperature. I would think there would just be more global high pressure, a more stable system - bigger swings does not jive with a total warming climate. 09-10 was the lowest NAO since the mid 1800s. I thought global warming would really inflate high pressure at the poles - but the opposite has happened over the last 11 years. Now it's swings or whatever that is the product of global warming. Something else I think is causing the mid latitude temps to rise more relative to the poles.

looks like a nice warmup coming over the next week or so!

Couple decent cells over Scituate earlier.

There are papers discussing changes to the teleconnections like the NAO and AO as the climate continues to warm. Bigger swings from one state to another. One of the best papers actually came out a year before the biggest swings began in the NAO and AO in 2009-2010. That is more the exception than the rule since most papers only come out after the change had already occurred.

Its really not that big of a deal.

According to most of us on this forum. But the majority of the population movement is to places like the Deep South and Desert Southwest like Phoenix. Just go on YouTube and pull up videos about how people in these areas stay in the AC as much as possible in the warm season. There is a couple on there that used to live in Minnesota that would rather deal with Phoenix summer heat than Upper Midwest winter cold. They adjust their summer routines to only go outdoors early in the mornings for more than a few minutes to avoid the heat. But to each their own. This world provides a wide array of climates to accommodate everyone’s wants and needs.

Third day in a row of rain all around us and plenty of thunder but not a drop at the house. At least I don't have to mow this weekend...

Nice summer day here with 70+ dews all day. Love to see the muggy meter bringing dews back as well.

Looks for the forseeable future unless next Tues/Wed. produce

It just comes across like you think things like NAO, PNA, etc are altered from new Super El Nino's happening. We are probably rate of global warming x 2013-14 likely to see a Winter that cold again. Indices have not been on track since 2016 and that is a significant part of the NE warming trend. The 1970s were a big dip down in the late 1800s - 1960s global warming. No one is saying warming isn't happening but it's becoming too comfortable and too specific.

Why am I not surprised..

Sample sizes in a rapidly shifting climate will never be as large as they were when we were on a colder and more stable temperature regime prior to the 1980s and 1990s. Thresholds are a common part of systems like the climate which can have non-linear elements blending with more familiar linear ones. But the models aren’t advanced enough to know exactly where these are ahead of time. Most of the time a crossed threshold is a rear view mirror assessment. This is what so many climate studies come out after the fact instead of before. The post I responded to said the coldest stretch since the 1970s.

Nice thunderhead Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Update: Storm is out of the way. The football season has officially begun!

Afternoon AFD from LWX mentioned it KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions next week with increasing thunderstorm chances by midweek. Models are generally in good agreement that a strong mid-level ridge builds across the southern U.S. and into the Mid-Atlantic during the early to middle part of next week. Well above normal temperatures for late August can be expected as highs reach the lower to mid 90s. Hot and humid conditions are likely as heat indices reach the upper 90s and possibly the lower 100s. A more notable mid-level disturbance will progress from the northern High Plains to the Northeast toward the middle of next week. The ridge will be suppressed as a result, but it remains uncertain how much and how quickly this happens. The latest trend in the ensemble guidance is for the upper ridge over the Mid-South to be a bit further west. If this pans out, our area in the Mid-Atlantic will be in a more favorable location along the periphery of the ridge to be impacted by passing MCSs. Eventually, by mid week it looks like the upper ridge retreats enough to allow the shortwave troughs to move over our area. Several of the AI models indicate increasing severe potential at some point Tuesday through Friday, which is certainly possible given the high instability that will be in place, along with substantial upper-level support from any strong disturbance. It`s also possible a back door cold front tries to drop into the area by Wednesday or Thursday, leading to greater uncertainty in temperatures.

Absolute perfect day out this way. Clear and 83

No one was comparing to the colder 70s, or 95/96 winter, etc. for that matter. He always points to the year(s) that are out of the ordinary and acts like thats what happened all the time. What you just stated was perfect. Compared to the previous years, it was colder, which is a fact, end of story. Not historic but for some areas like here in NJ, memorable for the numerous days of total snowcover due to it being colder and much snowier than average, which isnt that common. No one was saying it was a top 10 cold winter or anything of the sort. It's like we arent allowed to say that it felt cold or it offends him.

I thought I'd add this to your post to take us to Wednesday.

Impressive outflow boundary moved through from the storms to the east. Temp down to 78. Ofc it didn't trigger any storms here lol.

You don’t live in the Deep South for the summer and love the heat afterwards. Trust me.

Another tornado confirmed today by NWS in Lancaster County on 8-20 NOUS41 KCTP 281746 PNSCTP PAZ066-282200- Public Information Statement National Weather Service State College PA 146 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026 ...NWS Damage Survey for 08/20/26 Tornado Event - Update #2... .Update... Based on additional drone footage, NWS State College has extended the length of the Columbia EF-1 tornado and added an additional short EF-0 tornado (now 4 total) from the storms that moved through southeast PA on August 20, 2026. ..Eastern York County Tornado... Rating: EF2 Estimated Peak Wind: 120 mph Path Length /statute/: 1.07 miles Path Width /maximum/: 100 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 1 Start Date: 08/20/2026 Start Time: 04:24 PM EDT Start Location: 2 SSW Wrightsville / York County / PA Start Lat/Lon: 39.9994 / -76.5521 End Date: 08/20/2026 End Time: 04:26 PM EDT End Location: 2 SSE Wrightsville / York County / PA End Lat/Lon: 39.9975 / -76.5323 Survey Summary: An EF-2 tornado impacted eastern York County during the afternoon of August 20, 2026. Maximum wind speeds were estimated to be 120 mph and the tornado had a maximum path width of 100 yards. Damage was first noted near the end of Vista Lane near Wrightsville where approximately 5 trees were snapped. Sporadic tree damage was noted along the tornado`s track as it continued towards Picturesque Drive. The most significant damage occurred at Eastern York High School where the roof was fully ripped off of multiple classrooms. There was also significant damage to the school`s auditorium, with the roof partially ripped off and bricks at the top of the wall shifted from their original location. The tornado continued eastward along Winding Way, where multiple homes sustained damage to windows and siding. One injury was reported as a result of a window being blown into a house. The tornado knocked down crops in a field to the east of these houses, before lifting prior to reaching Chateau Circle. We would like to thank York County Emergency Management and local homeowners for their assistance in this damage survey. ..Columbia Tornado... Rating: EF1 Estimated Peak Wind: 100 mph Path Length /statute/: 3.01 miles Path Width /maximum/: 100 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: 08/20/2026 Start Time: 04:30 PM EDT Start Location: Columbia / Lancaster County / PA Start Lat/Lon: 40.0343 / -76.5015 End Date: 08/20/2026 End Time: 04:33 PM EDT End Location: 2 SE Columbia / Lancaster County / PA End Lat/Lon: 40.0031 / -76.4620 Survey Summary: On August 20, 2026 at approximately 4:30 p.m. EDT, an EF-1 tornado impacted Columbia, PA. Maximum wind speeds were estimated at 100 mph with a maximum path width of 100 yards. The damage path began on the block where Walnut Street meets 4th Street. Damage was done to an old firehouse where a section of the second story brick wall was knocked down onto Avenue H and a neighboring store. The firehouse roof and another adjacent roof were torn off and lying nearby. The tornado continued southeast through town where a couple small outbuildings were collapsed near Avenue K. Damage continued down Malt Avenue with many tree limbs snapped and minor damage to roofs. The tornado then crossed the Columbia Reading Railway snapping some large trees along Manor Street and Furnace Avenue. It continued into the wooded area south of town and across Blue Lane where many trees were found uprooted and snapped. Additional damage was discovered with numerous trees snapped or uprooted along the western side of Richland Drive. The tornado then continued over the ridge to the south of Richland Drive before crossing over Shultz Road. The tornado then turned left (toward the southeast) and left a path of convergent damage in a corn field north of Charlestown Rd. Sporadic damage was observed downstream of the tornado path on a farm, but it was not continuous enough to definitely extend the tornado path further. We would like to thank Lancaster County Emergency Management, the Columbia Borough Police Department, and students from Millersville University for their assistance in this damage survey. .Habecker Rd Tornado... Rating: EF-0 Estimated Peak Wind: 65 mph Path Length /statute/: 0.3 miles Path Width /maximum/: 75 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: 08/20/2026 Start Time: 04:37 PM EDT Start Location: 2 ESE Mountville / Lancaster County / PA Start Lat/Lon: 40.0271 / -76.402 End Date: 08/20/2026 End Time: 04:37 PM EDT End Location: 2 ESE Mountville / Lancaster County / PA End Lat/Lon: 40.0235 / -76.3989 Survey Summary: A brief EF-0 tornado occurred at 4:37PM EDT on August 20, 2026. The tornado began northwest of Habecker Church Rd and carved out a narrow convergent swath of damage in several cornfields as it moved south-southeast. The tornado began to occlude as it crossed Habecker Church Rd, after which the path briefly widened and became a bit less defined. Interestingly, there may have been a second even more narrow vortex that developed to the east of the parent vortex (to the left from a storm-relative standpoint) and joined up with the main circulation near Habecker Church Rd. The tornado likely lifted as it cycled and subsequently produced more damage to the northeast as it a crossed a residential area. We would like to thank students from Millersville University for their assistance in this damage survey. ..Manor Township Tornado... Rating: EF0 Estimated Peak Wind: 85 mph Path Length /statute/: 0.49 miles Path Width /maximum/: 125 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: 08/20/2026 Start Time: 04:38 PM EDT Start Location: 2 E Mountville / Lancaster County / PA Start Lat/Lon: 40.0314 / -76.3877 End Date: 08/20/2026 End Time: 04:40 PM EDT End Location: 2 NW Millersville / Lancaster County / PA End Lat/Lon: 40.0312 / -76.3784 Survey Summary: An EF-0 tornado developed over Broadstone Street causing significant damage to trees and pulling gutters off of homes. The tornado traveled east partially ripping a roof off of a townhouse as it crossed Sutherland Road and uprooted additional trees in the neighborhood. Finally it crossed South Centerville Road snapping and uprooting numerous trees as it continued east before lifting over a field. We would like to thank Lancaster County Emergency Management and students from Millersville University for their assistance in this damage survey. && EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories: EF0.....65 to 85 mph EF1.....86 to 110 mph EF2.....111 to 135 mph EF3.....136 to 165 mph EF4.....166 to 200 mph EF5.....>200 mph NOTE: The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the events and publication in NWS Storm Data. $$ US Dept of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service 1325 East West Highway Silver Spring, MD 20910 Comments? Questions? Please Contact Us. Disclaimer Information Quality Help Glossary Privacy Policy Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) About Us Career Opportunities .

I think a tropical system will break this pattern sooner than later...kind of like a blizzard during winter shaking things up. I do 100% agree that the next ten days look like a sauna.