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1.25 or so. Snowing

The HRRR is a believable scenario. Comes in with a good slug of early moisture, lulls midday, and then ramps back up and cools down late afternoon into evening.

Ridge pumping nicely out west on the nam

+SN in Greenfield right now, juicy storm

+PNA ridge is better too is this the NAMming of the decade? that will be TBD

Yep that's the shift the models have made last 24 hours

NAM looks more phasey and heights are higher... but it's early

It blows load initially over the MA so it’s projecting shredded banding as it pinwheels thru and eventually redevelops the CF and crushes ema.

I think it a fantastic sign with the last round of posts this evening… @canderson lowballing Harrisburg amounts & showing an incorrect Harrisburg forecast by CTP… Check! @Itstrainingtime time getting nervous & full of trepidation… Check! I say these things with love as long time posters… to me, it means it’s go time around here for a Winter Storm!

Same here Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Looked at the 00z HRRR for the hell of it. Was already on board with an amped solution too lol

A lot of that comes down to the initial advance of precip before the coastal takes over. Few of the other models are giving that much of a thought, and from the looks of it the HRRR is actually wetter with that batch than even the GFS.

Same as the Rap map I posted above and mentioned.

LWX’s range map shows how uncertain the forecast is at this point.

Mt. Holly AFD said something along the lines of starting Saturday evening with rain/snow mix and then things kick into high gear on Sunday, and it finishes up Monday afternoon.

Won’t be epic totals but great storm! It is dumping,

Nice. We're also under a heavy echo but it's like 75% sleet. Still a good 3" true pasting.

Hoping we continue slight west ticks and then lock in and avoid a Messenger shuffle.

WB 0Z HRRR..look at the pressure leaning NW.

This may be stupid, but what's a bent warm front and what levels can you see it? Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk

Eh, 21z Rap is no slouch either. Plenty more to go after this panel with a nice bowling ball of circled 500mb Heights to the west yet to come through. And if scroll back to an earlier panel you notice that in the last panel attached a new slp is starting to reform tucked in along the coast. That's what the Gfs had in its first bomb of 2-4'!

NAM is running! Here we go. Buckle up! .

depends on how the low gets there