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I don’t think the new EURO ONI/RONI projections are far-fetched at all given the massive SOI crash, the continued big WWBs, the new DWKW, the record warm subsurface, +IOD development, ++PMM, OLR anomalies, MJO/ERW constructive interference and the extremely rapid surface warming that has started. This event is showing signs of going into a “runaway” Bjerknes feedback loop. I would not be surprised at all if we are into a super El Niño by August

Will be driving back from Ephrata around 6 pm. Should be interesting.

A bit of a change in plans. Going to go to Bennington, VT and start from there. There are some decent viewing spots. Secondary area (which would be only 30 minutes away) is Wigwam Western Summit in North Adams which looks like it has a tremendous view to the west. Really tough part about today is the mesoscale aspect of how this unfolds. The greatest potential seems to be well down into PA but given its a very late PM threat its probably not worth the 4+ hour drive.

i know right, seasonal snowfall here in one storm. 44.7" in New Haven, 50 in Middletown. And considering the date im willing to bet most of these are probably snow depth or 24hr totals combined.

Summers just the best.. look at all that beautiful pollen..

Already 78 here at 9am. Going to be a special day... Another hot afternoon ahead, H850 temps progged +16C to +18C, allow surface temperatures to climb well into the 80s for most and lower 90s in the urban NYC metro and NE NJ corridor

I got some meger rain last evening 3mm instead of 8, at one point WUN had me at 27mm/1" which I waved off. Nil overnight but any rain has been removed for today just overcast til 2pm then partly sunny for the rest of the weekend! For a while it showed a washout weekend like 2 weeks ago now just a blip. A dream pattern is shortly setting up with heat and 2 days of storm potential mid-week. Isolated storms so far with 8mm of rain mid-Tues.

Yes

Don't think I saw a single black fly. Not many mosquitoes and the deer flies haven't started yet. I'm sure I'll pay for it somehow.

Can you guarantee 100% it hits enough to wash it in?

I would. Enjoy the storms after 6

The ongoing and strengthening El Niño is already contributing to record warm ocean temperatures. Global sea surface temperatures are currently well ahead of those during the development of the 2023-24 El Niño.

They'll just blame the Nino or use some other BS. These idiots can't be reasoned with.

That's going to change 2nd half of June. Ensembles are showing a much wetter pattern as early effects of the strong Nino begin to take hold.

Low of 65, as the humidity creeps up. Already up to 78. Some nice mid summer-like weather ahead. Onward.

Can’t even drop fert with no rain now. Blows

Just over 6" total here for MAM. Something needs to change.

Congrats on storms later

Today the PHL Airport looks to record a "heat wave" with their 3rd straight 90+ day. Here in Chesco most spots have not hit 90 degrees over the last few weeks, but we should see many spots do so today. There is a chance of some thunderstorms later this evening that would be welcomed as we continue to run dry across the region. A few degrees cooler tomorrow and several degrees cooler than that on Monday. We start another warming trend on Tuesday and could reach close to 90 degrees again by Thursday.

Today the PHL Airport looks to record a "heat wave" with their 3rd straight 90+ day. Here in Chesco most spots have not hit 90 degrees over the last few weeks, but we should see many spots do so today. There is a chance of some thunderstorms later this evening that would be welcomed as we continue to run dry across the region. A few degrees cooler tomorrow and several degrees cooler than that on Monday. We start another warming trend on Tuesday and could reach close to 90 degrees again by Thursday.

Very mild black fly period here, but the mosquitos are thick. Also, fireflies have arrived. This year makes 30 years since the worst black flies I've encountered. On Friday, 6/7/96, I was with 3 others at Oquossuc Bald Mountain scoping out a sno-mo trail, and I don't think we saw 10 black flies. The following Monday-Friday was our church's men's wilderness retreat, that year at Deboullie, about 25 miles SW from Fort Kent, and I predicted a modest black fly population. We drove to Portage Lake, got out at Coffin's store, and despite the high 80s (black flies tend to hide when it's hot) the area was thick with the little beasts. I slathered some Ben's 100 before launching our canoes at Pushineer Pond, and by the 75 minutes to reach the west end of Deboullie Pond where we would camp, the bug dope was no longer working. Another application lasted but an hour - Ben's usually is worth 5-6 hours; no way I would put that stuff on hourly. Next day when CAR hit the 90s, I was getting bombed while in the middle of the pond, 100+ yards from shore. (Not enough air space over land?) Only place to escape, other than the 100°+ temp sun-blasted tent, was in the rock crevices on the NW side of the pond, where there were still ice and snow. The black flies weren't interested where the temp was under 50.

What cold possibly go wrong? Think of Kevin's gypsy-moths.

All time record-breaking anomalies of almost +8C showing up off the coast of Peru ^ “And again!!! Another day, another record for the current #ElNiñoCostero: the sea temperature anomaly measured in #Paita, #Piura yesterday was +7.9°C. Data @DHN_peru All of this, while all sea temperature indicators have skyrocketed in the last week. Not to mention the last month.” And a very pronounced (new) DWKW has formed in the WPAC from the current WWB wind stress:

that has been the trend now for quite a while as we get closer and closer to game time the last several frontal passes - Upton says in the morning AFD "The main failure point with these storms is that the airmass has been so dry ahead of the front" .........one thing is for certain the drought will continue until further notice....