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Missed this thread when I posted earlier, I'll stick this here too.

Can confirm as a Jersey guy. However our town is actually splendid in fall and the local farms get loaded with city folks coming out for the “fall experience” to the point we avoid going to them, or even driving near them if possible.

.34 so far. Will take every drop....

We better get used to far NW getting crushed while we get scraps for this winter

1.84

This morning.

Just passed 1.5.” Garage ceiling just sprung a leak too. Ugh

It just hits different in the mountains. I have plenty of color in my own yard. that being said, some parts of S VT are definitely past peak and it’s almost stick season in areas.

You're seeing a fight between the trough being modeled progressively (Euro) and being held back (GFS). Here's Friday at 2pm on the GFS That trough then drops south and nearly induces a coastal low to form as it tilts negatively. The Euro is on a different planet, as it doesn't ever have that energy detach fully from the more northward low. The Euro AI is sort of in-between, with the low detaching and swinging south but not as intense Still have a long ways to go but we should hopefully see consensus emerge mid-week. If the Euro AI to GFS envelope is right then it'll be time to look at the close range models to see topographic effects and possible places that'll snow.

2.18" here at 7 am CoCoRaHS reading. Another 0.33" has fallen since. The 2.18" is NOT a record for the date, that still stands at 2.49" from 1990. Currently 57.5/57.1 with rain and fog at 8:20 pm.

Records: Highs: EWR: 88 (1949) NYC: 85 (1949) LGA: 86 (1955) JFK: 80 (1960) Lows: EWR: 36 (1979) NYC: 34 (1964) LGA: 36 (1964) JFK: 37 (1979) Historical: 1816: The coldest temperature recorded at Monticello, VA during the summer of 1816 was 51 °F, which occurred repetitively in June, July and August. Jefferson also noted that his icehouse held ice until October 11, 1816, which was about a month longer than normal, despite starting the spring with a relatively small supply of ice and snow. He also noted it was a dry summer was only 5.81 inches of rain fell during June, July and August. (p.34 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss) 1836: 1836 - For the third straight Wednesday, snow fell in New York State. 35 inches of snow fell at Cornell University in Hamilton NY. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1846: A major hurricane, possibly a Category 5, moved through the Caribbean Sea. This Great Havana Hurricane struck western Cuba on 10 October. It hit the Florida Keys on 11 October, destroying the old Key West Lighthouse and Fort Zachary Taylor. 1906: Extremely cold weather for the all-Chicago World Series between the Cubs and White Sox. The game time temperature on this date was just 43 degrees, but the day before, snow flurries had menaced the fans and players along with freezing temperatures. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1906: Games 1 and 2 of all Chicago World Series were played amid snow flurries. Snow would not happen again in a World Series until 1997. The high temperature for game 3 played on this day was 43 degrees. 1925 - Widespread early season snows fell in the northeastern U.S., with as much as two feet in New Hampshire and Vermont. The heavy snow blocked roads and cancelled football games. (David Ludlum) 1954 - A deluge of 6.72 inches of rain in 48 hours flooded the Chicago River, causing ten million dollars damage in the Chicago area. (9th-11th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - More than thirty cities in the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date, including Waterloo IA and Scottsbluff NE where the mercury dipped to 16 degrees. Tropical Storm Floyd brought heavy rain to southern Florida, moisture from Hurricane Ramon produced heavy rain in southern California, and heavy snow blanketed the mountains of New York State and Vermont. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Low pressure brought gale force winds to the Great Lakes Region, with snow and sleet reported in some areas. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the north central U.S. The mercury hit 84 degrees at Cutbank MT and Worland WY. The temperature at Gunnison CO soared from a morning low of 12 degrees to a high of 66 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Much of the nation enjoyed "Indian Summer" type weather. Nine cities in the central U.S. reported record highs for the date as temperatures warmed into the 80s and 90s. Record highs included 90 degrees at Grand Island NE and 97 degrees at Waco TX. Strong winds along a cold front crossing the Northern High Plains Region gusted to 80 mph at Ames Monument WY during the early morning. (The National Weather Summary) 1991: Most people think of Seattle, WA as being consistently cold and rainy, but you may be amazed to know that more rain falls each year in places like New York and Chicago. On this date, Seattle recorded its' 40th straight day without measurable rainfall. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 2005: A tropical depression, formerly Hurricane Vince, became the first tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in Spain. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) 2010: When the temperature hit 82 at O'Hare Airport on Columbus Day, it was the 98th time this year that the temperature broke the 80 degree mark in Chicago. The last time the temperature got this warm this late in the season in Chicago was 35 years ago back in 1975 when the high temperature reached 89 degrees on October 14th. In fact going back 121 years this is only the 20th time in Chicago recorded weather history of a temperature this warm being reached this late in the season. Based on historical data this equates to about a 1 in 150 chance of seeing a high temperature this warm on any given day this late in October in Chicago Senenth greatest number of 80 degree days in Chicago's weather history. Here is a list of the years with the most days at or above 80 degrees; 2005 103 - 1953 102 - 2007 102 - 1944 101 - 1963 101 - 1991 100 - 2010 98 - 1955 98 - 1987 98 Chicago temperature records go back to 1871. Chicago had a maximum of 86 degrees today which tied the previous record high for the date.

62 / 58 light rain / drizzle here expecting 1 - 1.75 for the remnants. A bit of a swing week Very warm Mon - Wed, With wed being the next and perhaps last shot at 80 until next year in the warm spots. Swing much cooler by Friday into next weekend, then moderate back to and warmer by 10/19 and beyond. 10/11 : Rain 1-1.75 inches 10/12 - 10/14 : Warm perhaps 80 in the warmest spots 10/15 - 10/17 : back down to normal 10/17 - 10/19: Cooler - coolest of the season so far 10/19 - beyond : Moderate back to / warmer overall ridging pushing into the east

I agree to a point.......that said, the color on sugar maples is so much better than what you get on other trees While there are some of those through much of New England, the concentration of them in VT/NH really makes those areas hard to beat.

Could be an interesting winter for elevated areas. If it's slightly colder than 2015/2016, especially in December, it could be a snow bonanza, with a bunch of storms falling as marginal heavy wet snow. If it's as much of a torch as 15/16 or worse, then it'll be a shut out.

At least 6z kind of said.. kind of.. maybe cooler..

Based on radar I may have to go out and shovel again before long.

Was hoping for a better presentation. I'm glad it's raining but it looks like the steady stuff may be zipping up into PA.

Thanks so much! We can see again! Per the graph you provided it is going about as expected at 30 mb. The table at the following link has the 30 mb QBO through when it stopped updating: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data This data had left off with Feb ‘26, which was then the 10th month in a row of a 30 mb -QBO (E QBO) and was starting to rise: 2025 12.11 10.55 11.82 6.94 -4.59 -13.72 -19.99 -22.28 -24.26 -24.65 -25.35 -26.92 2026 -25.51 -23.13 Looking at the widely followed 30 mb level on your graph, the QBO had one more strong negative (strong E) in March followed by a sharp rise from April through Sep (not at all unexpected) to typical solid positive (W) territory. The graph, including when looking at past patterns and projecting ahead, confirms the earlier confident predictions of a positive (W) QBO at 30 mb this upcoming entire winter.

Even though the CFS is currently too cool in Nino 1+2, the updated seasonal model update still has an east based El Niño lingering into next July with strong WWBs continuing.

You're not wrong, but there's a lot more continuous, preserved forest in northern new england than in southern new england. A lot of the forest in Rhode Island is wild regrowth over abandoned farm land. I've found the variety and quality of the foliage better in NNE with better viewing points due to elevation - just my opinion. You are absolutely right that there is great spots to see foliage all over NE though, and you don't need to take a trip up north to find it.

Impressive heavy rain band overnight. More here (parts of Triad area) than I was expecting, but will take it.

Good rain event in Charlottesville with over 2.1 inches in the city with heavy rain overhead. In NOVA for the weekend after seeing Maybe Happy Ending with my family yesterday and have just passed 1 inch of rain.

I cannot remember the last time we got such a wonderful prolonged rain event. We ended up with a much-needed soaking rain that added up to a total of 3.34”. Thank you God!

I look forward to the county telling me that water restrictions need to remain in place next week

Getting smoked one final time