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All good,i guess work does come before play..lol..Good to see you back tho !! Its always good to read your post and Jeff during severe to read yalls thoughts.Looks like you have a shot middle of next week,lots of uncertainty in our parts. In the long range the MJO seems to be getting stuck into the IO by a Rossby Wave plus also you have a Kelvin in the east so the signal is getting destroyed.But if the -AAM can stayed coupled with the MJO,we could get rather active in the long range

Farmers have had a double whammy this spring as the drought persisted through the first three weeks of April adversely affecting early spring plantings and high fertilizer cost

The NAM/GFS have a nor'easter for Nova Scotia- snow in May? I've seen it. At sea level? That's really pretty darn cold for sea level.

April finished as the 12th warmest (POR 133 years) first month of spring here in Chester County PA below are the Top 20 warm years. Our average of 55.0 was +2.8 degrees above our 1991-2020 climate normal of 52.2 degrees. January thru April 2026 is the 57th warmest first 4 months of a yea

April finished as the 12th warmest (POR 133 years) first month of spring here in Chester County PA below are the Top 20 warm years. Our average of 55.0 was +2.8 degrees above our 1991-2020 climate normal of 52.2 degrees. January thru April 2026 is the 57th warmest first 4 months of a yea

Clouds splitting the area in half angled

Wow….

The big warm spikes raised the average for March and April above normal but strangely the northeast trough still persisted. If you know anything about growing late April through May is the key growth period for crops everything is being stunted by this cold.

Stein holding here. Not sure it will last though. Wish we had yesterday’s weather today.

We could debate the GW component of OHC when comparing to past Nino events. But regardless, the current 5 month rate of warming of 180-100W OHC is the fastest on record (2.69) back to ‘79: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt So, the avg. steepness of the rise in this graph since Nov is a record for a 5 mo. period:

very chilly today..

GFS keeps pumping out hefty totals in true GFS form.

This latest MJO forecast propagation we just saw was actually stellar weeks in advance. Spot on actually

Mid 20's last night should rebound into the upper 40's today. I'll take it. Snowpack becoming patchy with the swamps and north facing areas still holding deeper snow. Will probably have areas of snow for another week, ending 6 months of snow cover.

Meh. We'll see. I've seen plenty of mjo forecasts for a month or more into the future fail miserably. I was talking about the next couple of weeks originally anyway.

Incorrect

Thanks, Chris To remind all of the obvious, 2026 has the advantage of the warmest merely due to GW, which of course should be taken into account when comparing the strength of the upcoming Nino to others. How much has it warmed since 2015? 1997? 1982? Haven’t oceans warmed at least ~0.5C since ‘82? The GW component of the tropical oceans should essentially be taken out when comparing strengths of ENSO, which is what RONI does. Even after taking this into account though, 2026 is in contention for the strongest Nino on record. This is also the case for OHC comparisons.

The latest MJO plots don't really look like this is happening. Some of the GEFS members are actually taking into the maritime continent now.

Ha! Just posted where/whence the is in the cards

Just been a tedious stretch. Need to reshuffle the deck. Does look promising for sustained warmer anomalies by mid month.

Feels like a late October day out. Im loving this weather!

Thanks for the kind words.

Improving odds for a hemispheric switch to a warm signal for mid month. Which isn't saying a lot at still 13 days away, but improving nonetheless. Emerging collapse in the PNA coming from all extended guidance for that index. Meanwhile, the the AO is pulled back (finally). And, if it helps...the climate composite on the MJO wave space in 8 for May is actually a modest over the top warming signal.. Indeed, the MJO is forecast to re-emerge on the left side of the RMM with perhaps nearly the same momentum as this most recent propagation. It's not hurting a warmer cause So we'll see... if you're a warm enthusiasts, it's a light at a the end of a tunnel for deeper more foundational looking warm pattern. In the meantime, Tuesday may approach 80...HA! So, it's not like we can't get by in the meantime. I just wish we'd time one of these warm bursts on the weekend. Weird look in total, really. Stationary front from IND-BTV like that is odd at this time of year. So we get late winter on the W side and early summer on the E for a couple of days... massive gradient The other aspect to consider is that the index correlation to pattern orientation is different in May than January. So have to consider two aspects, seasonal wave space changes. Also that there's a season -D(x) component where that is in the process of changing weaker. That's the seasonality signal. Putting all this together ... mm I'd say between modest and moderate signal for a warmer pattern change, mid month.

Coastalwx?

My experience of many years in the foothills - early May storms excite me. But that is a foothills perspective and setups like this in May usually have a steep accumulation gradient. All or nothing usually within 10 miles.