All Activity

18z ICON and RDPS still look good so it might just be the NAM doing it's NAM thing. That one is a real wildcard.

More like -15000 odds for it not to snow in Miami

.

We ICON.

“You’ll never see a bad guy like this again..”

why do so many dislike kuchera....

I feel like psuhoff conjures the demons of failure each time frankly with his always looking for the failure mode. It’s not rational but I’ve decided I’m right.

The ocean effect usually is cellular or comes in bands so I’m not really sure what to expect. It’s not like you’re gonna have this massive band on the coast, I think it’s gonna be the cells or perhaps bands that come on shore. I can’t recall such a cold air mass with winds from the surface to 850 out of the east to east northeast. There’s some low level CAPE modeled too. Some of those bands might be intense but I’m unsure how they’ll align.

8”+ before any mix ain’t bad for the icon

I think technically the warm areas are actually the mountain wave downslope. The colder places in between are areas not hit by the downslope. But I can't say that for sure.

it has been a tough few years. headlines from the south though.....man, those scenes are brutal. we have managed to underperform the last few years. maybe we'll break that trend this time. we do get socked at times. people just seem to hate snow here.

I like the good ole fashion wood

I'm starting to become curious if this thing accounts for mixing or if its heavily based on the GFS

Mixing by 5/6 PM

The 12k nam is loads better than the 3k, not surprisingly.

I already have four…well three, I lost one in a storm chase a few years ago. It’s coming. The question will be if it’s real.

RGEM a bit warmer than 12Z, precip starts around 3-4:00 am, NYC flips to sleet around 4:00 pm Sunday.

The RRFS & the 3k map the 700mb level (seemingly our warm level) cold out similarly and it's deeper/more impressive than the 12k. I'm willing to toss the 12k flipping us quite so fast on those merits. Really need the typical gametime WAA-juicy trend to start hitting some of these higher end forecast numbers, though. Still like 5" as a floor, I hope.

500MB on the RGEM features slightly higher heights ahead of the s/w and head weaker confluence over southern Ontario/Quebec when compared with the NAM

Just use a tape measure

Blacksburg is really bullish still.

That's why Mt Holly is going higher. Ratios for half the storm could be quite high given ideal snow growth and temps

19z NBM (18z ICON is running).

Very true. I've never thought about the temperature of mountain wave winds lol. But yes I think that's the conclusion I've come too.. and it's a scary one for myself. My house is quite literally in the coldest streak coming over Erwin.

I would say 95% chance it is the mountain wave event. You can see the winds and direction on the second image.