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Don't threaten me with a good time..

I hope so-the AIFS being right but we know how these backdoor setups usually go this time of year and even into May some years-they’re more aggressive than models show 100+ hours out. And the waters have a long way to go to start warming up. Jones Beach has been 35-36 degrees the last few days. That’ll make itself felt any way it can.

TT, My apologies for wording that as if those were your own words. That was my bad. I have no reason to refute the 0.35C rise of the last decade. 2023 had that sharp rise and that hasn’t come off with a new record likely in the way this year. But that’s just one decade and thus on its own it’s statistical credibility is much lower than that of the 0.2C of the prior 45 years. I assume you agree. I’d think that a “correction” of sorts could very well occur later this decade after the upcoming El Niño and would be surprised if the next decade were to warm close to another 0.35C.

Agreed .. if using just just climate, but therein is an interesting consideration. Part of climate practicum is being aware of recency, without it being a recency bias - tricky difference there... But over the last 10 or 12 years, recency has verified something like 1/3 or more of the Feb thru Apr periods as hosting an exotic early season warm event. 80s dude. With warm fronts up near Baffin Island for f sake. I've seen that happen ... yet never saw that happen in the previous 40 some odd years of my life. It's a new thang, man... get jiggy wit' it. Or, has that stopped. I don't know, but recency has demonstrated it's no longer merely plausible... it can and will do so. So, what the models were showing 7 to 10 days ago was another one of those crazed potentials - or at minimum, suggesting as much. Couldn't dismiss it out of hand because of recency. Not really hard. There were several runs back then with 582 dm height contours safely N of Logan's latitude. But like you were saying .. idiosyncrasies that are equally ( obviously ) important raised some flags.. Canada and so forth

Thanks for sharing. I'm well below normal as well. I know that many here only care what MDT has recorded as their basis for for determining snowfall, but I'm WELL below what MDT has recorded this winter and quite frankly...to me, that's what matters.

That's what I have here in Cape Neddick.

Firstly, "I" not comparing anything. That's a cite from the article. That's what the quotation marks mean. Secondly, it is what it is... The numbers show that the rate of increase rose from .2, to .35. you have a problem with fact of the numbers?

The EC-AIFS is most optimistic with 3 days starting next Monday potentially reaching 70°+ in NJ.

Rainfall last two days 1.66". Total since March 1 = 2.19". Good riddance to the road salt and dare I say good riddance to the snow cover as well. Down to about 1/2" here with 25% coverage. Plowed mounds are another story and it will likely take another week plus to get rid of the mounds on my street. Even longer for parking lot mounds which are still impressive. Looking forward to the coming warmth next week.

ehhh too me that's just a byproduct of a good winter...part of having a good (or great) winter is dealing with the aftermath which is spring mud season. The remainder of this month is probably going to bring it all, some very mild days, some raw/chilly days, wintry precipitation threats, rain. Hopefully by the time we get closer to April we can make a quick transition into more pleasant weather (which still can be quite the ask)

Now you're seeing the issue I have with early warm ups and melt outs up here. Regardless of what happens, you can't do anything outside until mid to late April so losing the pack early just prolongs mud season.

TT said: "Over the past 10 years, the estimated warming ratehas been around 0.35°C per decade, depending on the dataset, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade on average from 1970 to 2015.” TT, A problem I see is that you’re using just one decade for the 0.35/decade calculation vs using 4.5 decades to determine the ~0.2/decade.

garden variety classic, needed and nice

Still a fairly robust pack here. It'd be funny to lose it all and then have it reappear by the end of March.

There is a period late Saturday into first half of Sunday with dew 48-58 across SNE .. That will cause some damage .. Then again late Tuesday

This warm stretch keeps getting eroded...

The problem with this warmer weather coming up is that everything is just gonna be a mess. It’s almost better that we didn’t have any snow on the ground because at least things wouldn’t be a muddy mess. Finally seeing a small patch of grass where it’s sloped, wind scoured, and destroyed by turkeys pecking away at it.

Oh man this is hitting just right.

Still looks like 55-65 Potential Sunday through early Wednesday for most of SNE even into CNE . DXR may pull a 70 one day..

The squalls on New Years were crazy too...had like 3" from that event with over 2" from the squalls alone.

You’d think the AIFS is closer to the correct solution given the lack of blocking. Really think the OP Euro is out to lunch here, but we’ll see.

Yeah that too. Am I remembering correctly the cape had a white Christmas as well? 3.5” in that 12/26 deal here. But up until 1/17 it did feel like we were getting shit luck again with the smaller deals.

Love waking up to the sound of thundery downpours in the morning

29.8F Snow final was 3.5". It was an over achiever. I don't believe we were ever under a winter advisory and my point and click said 1". Okay, I'm ready for spring weather.

Wouldn’t mind waiting until April for a true torch since averages will be higher then, making the warmth more useful.