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Ya, my truck many/most times is unrecognizable after a trip up north and back. I always hope for cold and dry…truck stays decent when that’s the majority of the trip. But most times it’s a complete disaster.

Lol, no. Even in my area mid 40's don't average for another couple weeks.

Here's the 12z RRFS snowfall output at 10:1 for our area. I think the CPA ridges are going to get a solid coating. But it dies out pretty quickly as you move eastward towards our area.

It was a good event in Saranac Lake, better than originally expected. It’s early, but I’ve noticed 1) BTV underestimates snow potential here and 2) it’s often snowing even when the radar looks clear We’ll have non-accumulating flakes during the day and as soon as the sun sets BAM we’re approaching an inch of fluff.

Average high is 53…

That whole 11/29-12/1 period is semi-interesting. There’s going to be troughing most likely entering the Midwest so if we have some local confluence/cold press ahead of it, then we might be able to sneak an event in there. OP euro shows a colder look on that today. As usual, best chance this early is going to be interior and prob some latitude as well, but something to watch.

I generally hate posting fantasy model snow maps, but I couldn't resist this one. Here's the 12z HRRR. This is far outside the inter-model spread, so extremely unlikely. It's certainly not close to what I expect to play out. But it made me smile to see anyway. The HRRR has been backing off every cycle since.

I'm fine with saving our best pattern for after Dec 15th. A regionwide, 1" - 3" Dec 5th cartopper would be sweet, but I'm all about Christmas snow, ESPECIALLY if it falls Christmas Day and then we just go vodka cold through January.

Maybe we can sneak a graze by the offshore wave on 11/29, see 12Z AI.

i would love it, though. maybe we can sneak in a few 1-3 and 3-5 events in mid-late December to put us up there.

That’s quite the cooldown! The EPS has also cooled down over the last 48 hours of runs for the weekend after Thanksgiving though not to as cold as GEFS.

Wouldnt be shocked to see the northern crew see some wet snow over night tonight.

“This is jay peak. It’s the snowiest spot in the east, period. We’ve gotten a shit ton of snow. There’s a shit ton at 1800 ft, there’s a larger shit ton at 4000 ft. It has been snowing a lot, and it’s been really windy and there’s a shit ton of snow. In some spots, there’s 4 feet, in some spots there’s a foot. Wherever you ski, there’s a shit ton of snow” I think this would be a more effective snow report and prevent the endless debates over what we all know is a shit ton of snow, skewed heavy due to obvious marketing embellishments and lack of precise measurements when numerical values are put on it. .

I don’t want to get over my skis here, but I think we should be very excited about the look of the long range. I’m wary of the Pacific cooperating as well, but this PV weakening is something we haven’t seen in a while. So much so, I think that being outside of prime climo might be the true sweet spot. The AI models were first to sniff things out and now we’re seeing the other guidance catch up to the idea of the cold being centered in the plains — eastward instead of being so closely anchored to the Rockies. Time will tell how much bleeds east of the Apps but the 8/1 crawl on the MJO coupled with some blocking should help quite a bit. I still imagine this being a step down process and don’t buy the hype of it being an immediate meat locker right after Thanksgiving. My gut says we have to watch a few cutters occur Thanksgiving - Dec 5th ish and somewhere after that first week, a fantasy storm might work into the medium range. If this look were to show up post-Christmas I’d be a lot less bullish for most in this forum because it would scream cold and dry with ample suppression. It’s a fine balance but this sort of pattern is how you nail a big dog before we get into the heart of winter.

Past event map:

You calling for less than -16 inches?

Perfect temps and no superstar to build this year has let them go wild. Being able to blow multiple nights at 2000 ft also probably helped. .

Good news perhaps with regards to the RRFS....it did a spectacular job today on ptypes in Michigan and seems to have a good handle here tomorrow AM on the R/S line. With the NAM being discontinued sometime in 2026 it was really important that the RRFS performed well on winter precip events given the HRRR and GFS are relatively awful usually being too cold aloft and the HRRR sometimes in the BL too. The RRFS not having a MOS product though will continue to be a problem.

We were also colder than advertised but only got to 32.7, seems impossible to freeze this year despite it not being that mild. The tomatoes and peppers still carry on.

My goal was to get the laugh I'm sure you had Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Co-sign. Would be amazing and one of the better starts to winter of late.

Low of 27 degrees in Reisterstown. The NAM and HRR were really good with overnight low temps here.

lol

That would just bring cold and dry to us-forcing the storm track well south.

Are you wearing too tight of an underwear or underpants?