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I have decorations down.. it is a massacre of lighted snowmen outside! - Hoping winds subside soon! Winds have to be gusting to 50+ at times. Lights have been going flickering and had brief outage.

Just seen mdt had a gust close to 70.

12z GEFS is a CONUS blowtorch through the end, hr384. At that point we still have a +300dm Aleutian ridge and +EPO. It will take some time to detox them both in the best case scenario. This pattern surprises me a little, before Dec we had 21/29 months of +PNA since 2023 (CPC), and since the 23-24 El Nino ended, we still had 12/20 months of +PNA in negative ENSO. Now all of a sudden we have a Strong La Nina pattern from the N. pacific to the continental US. I guess Fall AAM is important, as that is the difference between this year and last year - this year we had a -AAM Fall, last year it was more positive 2nd year -PDO's, when the PDO doesn't work year 1 (+PNA last Winter in deep -PDO), correlates at 1.24x normal year 2.. It's deep negative this year so that could have been another sign.

T-storm vivid ltg

Ray lofted a STW - I had 0.05" additional rainfall after the main event was done (total 1.95" for today and on top of 0.03" last night before midnight, a 2-day event total of 1.98"). Have been watching remnants coming through. Currently mostly cloudy with breaks of sun and 53, with dp 43.

actually pretty awesome if you like warm days. There's like 3 of them across that span ticklin' record taint

Burlington CTPXL_20251219_184936304.RAW-02.ORIGINAL.dng

The last major winter storm in February or later during a weak to moderate La Nina was March 1 2008 with exactly what Eric Webb said- A bowling ball cut off upper low. There have been 7 weak to moderate La Ninas since then, none of them had major winter storms after January,

Northern Greens appear to be flipping back to snow. Snowing furiously on MRG cams since about 1:30. Coverage looks pretty ugly, south of I-89 took a hit

Yeah, I find the GFS is the best mid-range model out there with respect to telling us what’s likely to happen up here in the Northern Greens when looking ahead a week or two. It seems to see the terrain well and it knows what to do with it. When it comes to modeling, I think we sort of have an advantage around here in that this is an incredibly snowy climate, so basically any impulse, piece of energy, or system that gets near the spine is typically going to produce some snow. All a model has to do is assume that it’s going to snow and it’s generally going to be correct. Also, our classic “bread and butter” patterns are often based on a single northern jet stream, so there’s not a lot of concern about lining up perfect phasing, etc. Looking back at my post from earlier in the month, the GFS suggested 7 to 9 systems coming through the area through about this time period, and this current system is #7 or #8. We’re right around 30” of snowfall for the month so far here at our site, so it will be interesting to see if we end up above average for December. If we kept the snowfall pace we had through the first half of the month, that would have been a slam dunk, but the pattern doesn’t look quite as prolific for the remainder of the month. The GFS shows roughly 6 potential systems in the queue through the rest of December, so we’ll see how thing play out. This current system isn’t really a big one for snowfall, with probably just a few inches on the back side, and then there’s a system tracking along to our north over the weekend – it seems a bit far north to hit us with too much snow, but there will potentially be some effects and the BTV NWS talks about that in their discussion. Then there’s a potential system in the Tuesday timeframe. That one has that look on the GFS with the lingering upslope precipitation, which definitely suggests some decent potential at first glance. That one is still a bit in the distance, but the BTV NWS certainly touches on that in their discussion as well: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1233 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025 LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The next system will approach Tuesday afternoon. Although temperatures during the day will climb near to just above freezing, we`ll likely remain all snow for precipitation. Our weather pattern will feature us on the fringe of a very warm air mass to our south and cool air off to our north. Small fluctuations in the pattern could spell a wide range of scenarios. On a day-by- day scale, these kind of weather patterns tend to have lower predictability since systems move fast between stronger winds between these sharp thermal gradients and the lack of amplification means these smaller systems can be more difficult for global models to resolve. It`ll certainly be active, with likely breezy conditions and precipitation opportunities every other day or so.

I have just rearranged my closest back to summer attire since winter is canceled.

Just had some thunder and lightning from that line moving east in southborough.

I only post those in the digital thread now, I try not to piss off Cape.....

And, they're only as good as what the ingest to begin their calculations. It seem to me that we need better data before "better" computing

philly people are just morons lol https://x.com/Breaking911/status/2002075982023577922?s=20

Friend of mine getting “a huge thunderstorm” in Uxbridge right now. I see lightning strikes on my app so makes sense. A thunderstorm before we get significant snow this season

I hope this parlay hits purely for the unhinged responses .

Fighting SE ridge but the big NAO and WPO blocking is an encouraging sign. If we have that heading toward New Years, I’d feel decent.

Looks like north of city and esp. New Ken and north getting heavy snow.

i guess the same reason you do when you post 360 hour maps!

I think model data assimilation and initialization is still going to be a big limiting factor. So I’m not expecting anything crazy awesome in the next few years until that part of modeling is improved.

EPS essentially says we get a lot more favorable after next week.

That's what we talked about and what it's going to take to spoil the warm pattern early.

I'll pay you a hundred bucks if central park really gets 1.5" of snow on the ground before christmas.

Yea's its kind of crazy how the holiday warmup is always a lock now. Pattern has been for several years now impressive cold early to mid december, and then a guaranteed 60 degree cutter some time around christmas or new years.