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Looks like GOES 18 is being used as a fallback? https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/operations/goes/status.html https://usradioguy.com/news/goes-19-in-safe-hold/

Something similar actually happened yesterday over Pennsylvania too, the fires sharpen the thermal gradient and can increase both the coverage and area and intensity of storms over a local swath. Yeah, models did not pick up on this at all, and it didn't become apparent until maybe midday Tuesday. I suppose if that was the case, it would've led to subsidence elsewhere, maybe farther north.

Did the Trump admin finally just shoot down GOES ?

He should crack the window of his cruiser

That CFS graph is referring to relative 3.4 anomalies, which are currently in the +1.3 to +1.5 region rather than ~+2.0. Actually, the official relative 3.4 for last week was only +1.3: 08JUL2026 2.6 1.7 1.3 0.5 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

Since GOES-EAST is down, you could use GOES-WEST, though it's not ideal since we're near the edge of the disc image, so images appear blurry but its better than nothing. The colored image distinguishes between cloud types. Smoke is green, blue and red are clouds

73 this morning. 85 currently.

A little hazy but wish we had some smoke! We dry

Unlike the very mild Feb 1878 in the upper Midwest, the E US’ warmest month of that winter was the fairly typical El Niño warmest Dec. In contrast, Feb was only modestly AN in a good portion of the NE to NN in the SE. Jan was NN to BN. Jan-Feb combined in much of the E US wasn’t mild at all and instead was largely NN (no more than slightly AN in the NE and even BN in good part of SE).

Haha yeah. Can put the band name above it, name of the album below

Air Quality Indexes are off the charts in the upper mid west. Higher than 2023, The extreme readings are knocking on the door of Buffalo. Hopefully it doesn't reach here and without that satellight working, we won't know for sure.

Daily Cfs2 plume charts are updated daily and hyperlinked to this site; past half way down. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

Album cover vibes.

Hard to know with satellite down but looking at obs back to the Great Lakes I'd say using pre 1960s forecasting that the worst smoke will go S and W of here

In my experience down there in 2015-16, when it decides to rain there it goes totally bonkers. May 2015 was the most rain I've seen in my life in Austin. I guess the closest match would be August 2010 up here but I think May 2015 was worse. The heaviest rain I've ever seen was Oct 2015 when the remnants of Patricia came through. It was literally like watching a firehose outside.

I was just looking at that stuff... According to CPC most recent power point, yet the present NINO 3.4. regional anomalies ( found here: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=nino3.4 ) are already floating around +2.00 C. So, either their CFSv2 product is less accurate as a predictive use ( by over a whole deg C ), or... Climate Reanalyzer's data is suss. I don't really care to get into that ..per se, I'm really just more interested in general with the comparison between monitoring vs modeling: where are we?

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 955 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026 DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016-504-506-508-VAZ053-054-527-170000- /O.NEW.KLWX.HT.Y.0010.260716T1500Z-260717T0000Z/ District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 955 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heat index values around 105. * WHERE...Washington DC, and portions of central, northeast, northern, and southern Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses.

A little while at least based on GOES-W imagery.

ASH 81F/60 sun.....for how long?

That's what the Cfs2 was showing over 3 months ago when I posted. I was just the messenger. Obviously, Cfs2 forecast, updated multiple times a day, changed.

Here comes the next monster WWB

Parts of the East had their lowest snowfall of the 1800s that winter. The big story during the 1877-1878 super El Niño was the warmth in the Upper Midwest. It’s an example how really strong El Niños can sometimes have their warmest departures in February. While we don’t have the 1841-1870 climate normals for MSP, I used the earliest available 30 year period. The departures for them that winter would have been like if December 2015 had run through February 2016 in the Northeast with no pattern reversal. MSP 1877-1878 DEC….+14.5 JAN…..+9.8 FEB……+15.8 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Minneapolis-St Paul Area, MN (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 19.3 12.0 15.7 15.6 Max 33.8 1877 25.9 1880 31.9 1877 1872-1873 6.0 5.4 12.8 8.1 1873-1874 17.6 12.2 12.6 14.1 1874-1875 17.2 -3.4 -2.6 3.7 1875-1876 24.7 15.7 15.9 18.8 1876-1877 8.3 8.6 31.9 16.3 1877-1878 33.8 21.8 31.5 29.0 1878-1879 19.1 16.1 12.7 16.0 1879-1880 11.5 25.9 19.6 19.0 1880-1881 13.2 7.9 17.1 12.7 1881-1882 29.0 19.0 30.4 26.1 1882-1883 15.0 0.8 12.1 9.3 1883-1884 19.7 8.8 12.9 13.8 1884-1885 14.8 4.4 11.3 10.2 1885-1886 21.0 3.7 14.9 13.2 1886-1887 7.3 0.7 9.4 5.8 1887-1888 17.4 -0.4 13.1 10.0 1888-1889 25.2 20.7 10.6 18.8 1889-1890 28.8 10.6 19.2 19.5 1890-1891 24.4 21.6 11.8 19.3 1891-1892 30.1 13.5 22.9 22.2 1892-1893 16.8 7.3 12.0 12.0 1893-1894 14.0 12.3 15.7 14.0 1894-1895 28.1 7.0 12.0 15.7 1895-1896 22.5 16.8 22.3 20.5 1896-1897 24.4 10.6 20.0 18.3 1897-1898 15.3 23.0 20.6 19.6 1898-1899 14.1 13.7 7.8 11.9 1899-1900 21.4 21.3 8.6 17.1 1900-1901 21.0 15.2 12.3 16.2 1901-1902 15.9 18.7 18.2 17.6

was wild out pink/red at 5am as sun came up, and the thick of it is still SW of us