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I remember growing up that it was always warmer there until the lake froze and then it would be absolutely brutal with the wind coming off the lake.

And 12z will have it in NC.

How bout those Hawks! F the Pats!! They can go enjoy their snow instead.

0Z ICON has a low moving through the Ohio Valley bringing a wintry mix quickly changing over to rain this weekend.

If you plot N. Pacific ridges most extreme, in that spot, there is a Day-0 effect. I've done it before, gone through the whole dataset and made custom indexes. There is a Day-0 correlation. It's strongest 2-3 days later, but there are rising heights in the SE right as the N. Pacific ridge starts setting up. Plot it sometime. Either way though, the PNA is going negative in the next few days.

But what’s happening out in the central pacific hasn’t impacted the North America longwave pattern YET. It will. We are going to pay the price for that ridge out there eventually. The nao might mute it some but payment will come due. But what’s happening over N Amerca matters more. That ridge out there matters because it will cause the next pac trough to really dig and amplify into the west. THAT is what will jump a ridge in the east. There are steps. Because the antecedent pattern was good and there is some residual blocked nature to the N Amer flow the downstream impacts are delayed some, not as immediate as in recent years when things were already bad and that kind of ridge would torch is right quick. But there the location and depth of the trough our west is similar to the Hudson Bay high comp. Yes the central pacific ridge is different but they only matters once it causes the pna to tank imo.

-12 in the valley here, at MVL.. radiators mount up locally. -18F at HIE. The vibe was brutal cold this evening. Wind blowing over the ridge, accelerating down the slope and through the east side, in this deep cold.

I still like you, even if you do act like you are in eighth grade lol. Just stop with the fake outrage when it comes to 'morals'. I mean, come on dude. Your shtick here is antithetical.

We have -PNA 3-4 days before that, it's not +450dm, but there is a ridge with trough over top. You see this starting to effect us in the next few days, as we warm up to 40s in +EPO. After that, I'm going to say there isn't any cold air reinforcement, it's not actually 1-2-3 with WC trough either, sometimes you will have a SE ridge without the 2nd part, but either way there is WC trough to some extent after 1st part of PNA establishes. It's just not a good pacific pattern man. It's not because of "our luck and global warming", it's a really easily identifiable pattern anomaly in the pacific.

Looking forward to seeing the celebrations in Seattle. Do they grease the street poles too?

But that comp would also show a massive -pna trough along the west coast. THAT is what causes the ridge in the east. It hasn’t happened YET there. It’s coming. A day later and then 2 days after that yes the east will ridge. Not every situation is the same. You’re ignoring that the central pacific ridge has not yet had the downstream impact on the pna that comes BEFORE what happens here. You’re just applying a general mean. Well if that was the case we might as well always say it won’t snow because snow is an anomaly not normal and not the likely outcome ever.

I’m insecure because of how smart you’re. It’s extremely intimidating.

It's pretty different. the position of the west coast trough and Aleutian ridge is much worse. More Pac puke. Although I am about to puke myself watching this game. So yeah.

Ice skating allowed at Hempstead lake state park. Next at Belmont lake state park. Hempstead Lake State Park OKs ice skating at pond, a first in decades https://www.newsday.com/news/weather/hempstead-lake-state-park-skating-szrixdvj

Back door season is going to be absolutely brutal. Delayed spring north of Philly

Yeah deep winter here. Loving it but a thaw is overdue. Tons of nickel and dimes to keep the snow fresh. Two largest snowdalls here since mid January were 6.1" & 4.9".

So kind of them to play a football game at the Bad Bunny concert

this can’t be serious

2000 Ravens had a shoutout in the Super Bowl if it wasn't for a kick return, Ray Lewis was SB MVP.

Pretty good list

My apologies. You don't have young kids. Kids 'that age' I believe you said. Why do you talk about dicks so much here? There are minors here you know. Are you insecure?

That’s rather bullish so far out

This is top 3 defenses I've ever seen Hawks Ravens Bears In my opinion

^Make a composite of +450dm N. Pacific ridge days south of the Aleutians now-time in Feb, and tell me what heights in the Mid Atlantic and SE look like. I'll give you hint, they are warmer than average. The Pac pattern change is happening in the next few days with Polar Vortex temporarily setting up over Alaska. Then it transitions to southern High pressure.. but the whole pattern -PNA/+EPO is setting up early enough to skew that storm warm, and I think by a good margin.

Maye just got trucked haha. F the Pats