All Activity

No changes from my Sunday morning post... except to add the small potential for a nw flow severe event Sat afternoon, especially eastern parts of our area (CT/LI). That in addition to whatever happens this Thursday as currently outlooked by SPC. I looked at XMACIS and there just isn't any need from my perspective for a heat thread. What is coming is sort of normal for June, especially interior. The sudden change will take a few by surprise but little doubt in my mind we experience heat advisory (June 95-100) interior Thu afternoon, and then possible heat warning or however the NWS titles it for early next weeks MAX HI 100-105. Duration (4 day or 7day+ heat wave of 90+uncertain for KEWR) but I think heat wave likely begins Sunday afternoon. Right now WPC max HI only goes out to Monday and is more conservative.

It was only average in number of named storms. If you take a deeper look, 2013 finished with a Top 10 lowest ACE season, with only 2 hurricanes, and no major ones. (Even 2014 didn't go that low in those respects.) 2013 put up some numbers that seem unfathomable in this 21st century climate, especially coming off 3 very active seasons. It's a well-below average season.

All Cold All The Time.

62 / 58 day 3 and hour 58 of the latest cloud invasion. 0.89 in the bucket since Friday night. Cloud lingering much of the next 36-42 hours keeping temps more like April but there is heat (light) at the end of the proverbial dingy grey tunnel we have been in. Warmer by Wed but front is still pushing the boundary north to trigger storms but we should see some sun and spike temps into the 80s. Chance of storms Wed and Thu evening. Thursday, pending on clouds sees >16c 850MB temps and the chance of the next 90s for some and first for many. In what could be a period of 8 of 10 90 degree days (6/20 - 6/30) with heat building north and east and a strong ridge pushing heights to >588- 594 DM next week. Watch for any undercutting the ridge to create any onshore for coastal sections. Hot period with an overall higher heights warm-hot but could be featuring storms potential in the beyond. 6/16 - 6/18 : Clouds cooler - warmer wed 0.25 - 0.45 inches forecast (scattered) 6/19 - 6/20 : Warmer - hot in areas (6/19) 6/20 - 6/30 : Hotter with strong ridge into the EC - could remain with storm potentials keeping it Beyond : overall wetter and hot

JB is going for a high ACE Atlantic season with above average storms as he normally does. Wants an excuse to predict a -NAO winter

Mid 100s deep into Suffolk County is beyond just being summer. That is historic

The drought in AA County is definitely completely dead. It's actually pretty swampy here in the lowlands. Today looks like a nice day to take off work due to weather and go for a long hike before the heat kicks in for the next 4 months.

This could be our first decade since the 1950s with 3 years reaching 100 in June and we are only 6 years in.

That’s funny coming from the number one AC pusher man on the forum.

It will be at the very end of its range, but I'm curious to see what the 12z NAM comes up with Thursday afternoon into the evening

Heres your weekly "what is this" post from me... can someone explain ACATT...? Thanks

EPS is historically hot this far out. This is no typical heat signal

This is a crazy signal this far out. Something historic is brewing

Weather folks are putting in the work to let people know the heat is coming.

I’m going to ignore all the places that haven’t reported yet, and radar estimates, and declare myself the three-day winner

Not sure, but I think Iran is presently receiving unprecedented heat bursts...

Low of 58 and .15” of rainfall.

Steady rain again i suppose if it's going to be mid upper 90s soon i'm happy to get as much ground water as possible. I do need to mow though

Ok wow I am surprised to see In picked up .59” after midnight. Knew we would get some rain but not that.

Very strong La Niña spring pattern as this was the 2nd warmest spring since 1895 behind the 2011-2012 La Niña for the CONUS. Contiguous U.S. Average Temperature March-May March-May 2012 56.17°F 131 March-May 2025 54.09°F 130 March-May 1910 54.07°F 129 March-May 2004 53.98°F 128 March-May 2000 53.90°F 127 March-May 1934 53.73°F 126 March-May 2016 53.66°F 125 March-May 2024 53.63°F 124 March-May 2007 53.50°F 123 March-May 2017 53.49°F 122

Wednesday is interesting, a low ejects out of the plains and strengthens as it moves towards the Straits of Mackinaw overnight into Thursday, with ample instability and a warm front lifting through the state I would expect some severe weather of all modes with a squall line trailing along the cold front. The wind fields are pretty robust as well.

ACATT will never be able to get past the iron heat dome.

Were are the hyper active tropical forecasts?? Col State and the NHC were a hair above average...

I mean it is summer after all..

2013 was not very quiet and below average, it was exactly average. There were 14 named storms and 15 tropical depressions. 14 named storms is average