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They did for me too. They DO have me a little higher than you, though at 3-7 inches. Seems surface temps are going to be pretty consistent around the region, as they have me at 36 as well.

https://tinyurl.com/ykvxepp2

I don’t think anything really has changed overnight. The euro ticking warmer wasn’t really a shock. This looks like a 495 north and west kind of deal with area still in question is inside 495 through about Kevin. The nam is out to lunch and zonked so that’s tossed.

Weeeeee

Seems NWS shaved 3 in off the total this morning. Tuesday Snow before 10am, then snow, possibly mixed with rain. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Calm wind becoming northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

And for the northern folks:

The deamp trend is still alive and well. Maybe we should start looking for "cutters" along with blocking and... "right where we want it at 6 days out"?

I don't like this range map at all. At least raise the floor on the two high zones.

I would love for that HRRR to verify

Added the NWS snowman that weren't into the 4AM forecasts, and the side bar notes are my opinion. Will check back at 5P.

Off-topic: It's incredibly icy out there this morning. Be careful out there!

Euro agrees. AI still has a light event though and kinda breaks it into 2 parts, one Friday and then more Saturday as a coastal gets going.

Current temp of 26. This week looks interesting.

Reminds me, someday I need to draw a rain/snow line map for my area that better explains it. Models and local forecasts just never get the area right. Heavy smoothing on the maps

Interesting how the basic signature of the precip shield is very similar to the Gfs, but the Gfs is just heavier.

Environmental impacts are a cost to society. Fossil fuels have been and largely still are getting a free ride on CO2 emissions. The typical coal or gas-fired power plant doesn't pay for its CO2 emissions. A big subsidy.

Regarding the NAM: I've no idea what will replace it or will it have a FOUS? That said... the NAM is a bit whacked. First it had very little south of I84 min earlier cycles, now its gone ballistic Poconos to BOS. I've not used this in my personal briefing. I do add for your interest, something that we can all evaluate with the Wed morning CoCoRaHs data. imo, play the numbers conservative. I do think 1"/hr snowfall rates from just north of KABE into nw NJ tomorrow morning 9A-Noon, then rain or mixed. mPing may be of value for NYC. 4AM advisory and watches in purple and blue. Then various model outputs from the 00z/1 cycle.

You knew that was bound to happen... or rains to northern VT

Advisory for 3 to 5 inches here I don’t see that happening.

I've noted the adverse comments on storm interest. I'll review any MODERATOR impression on value added for this thread. This has been accurately portrayed in advance, I think, and the thread still looks pretty good as of 5AM today. Moderator just tell me if you dont want a headline for the forum on an event like this. Thanks... Walt

After reading Mt Hollys AFD last night it’s plausible that rain snow line pushes even further NW almost to I 80. Elevation is going to be key 1000’ and above out there should get a good pasting. Also mentioned the start time might be earlier that previously thought which give us Far NW Burbs a shot at 3-5, but going with 1-3 with a periods of heavy snow before the changeover.

Euro one of the warmer models. Shoot the horse, send it to the glue factory, and then light the factory on fire.

How much rain are we getting? .50-.75”?

Jeff and Lava are reading this with much interest. In addition to ensemble spread in QPF, other points of uncertainty exist around the development of a quasi-stationary mesoscale snow band and the inland penetration of the coastal front. A mesoscale snowband acts to rob moisture from the northwest side of the band creating a tight gradient in snowfall while areas under the band could see up to a foot of snow.

WB 6Z HRRR