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It's a white rain to a coating for everyone then some IVT develops for Eastern New England after sunset.. Just another model.. I think there will be some surprises when we wake up, hopefully they are good..

current radar precip looking way ahead of schedule and very spotty/dry too?

Whaaaa cluttering up a thread that’s 244 pages long? how the hell can you tell LOL

I do feel his frustration, honestly. This system was raining to the Canadian border and moved like a thousand miles in two runs, and now has stabilized as a Mid Atlantic hit. I don’t blame people for being aggravated if Philly is getting a foot this weekend

So what are you saying…it’s much later with any snow?

1947 was 26.4" (26.1" on 26th) and 2010 was 20.0" (12.2" 26th + 7.8" 27th). That 7.8" portion is the daily record for the 27th. The 12.2" on 26th would have been a daily record on every day of December except the 15th (12.7" fell in 1916), the 20th (15.5" fell in 1948), but even without 1947, not the 26th .... 18 inches fell in 1872 on Dec 26th during a very cold spell. Boxing Day seems good for snow, I think Don showed it was the most likely date in December to see measurable snow, and other significant falls include 7.0" in 1890, and 11.2" in 1933. In 1969 there was 6.3" over the 25th and 26th. The three largest December totals for two days all include the 26th.

I am gonna tag @John1122in this. His records are easily the best and most uncorrupted that I know of. They are rigorous and have good fidelity to boot(they are his family's for those who don't know). He might be able to shed some light on Maue's thoughts and hopefully chip in some insight. John, I am not asking you to support or criticize RM...just to add some context to the cold forecast in Alaska and in relation to our area.

Too goddamned large lol

He might be getting worse than his neighbor in Taunton. Poor SOB Needs a serious break.

Ha. Just screenshotted it, and was going to post it.

1977. Maybe my favorite Christmas song.

guys models are not exact science they are guidance. You can tell this will be a minor event but if the snow comes in it's cold enough it will accumulate it's not rocket science NYC is getting 1.5 from this that's my prediction

Just broken

LOL RRFS doesn't get accumulating snow into New England through 5pm Tuesday

Nice post. Interesting find by Golf. I keep an off-and-on eye on the coldest modeled mins for North America during the winter. I do that just to monitor how cold our cold source could be. The coldest I can find right now is low -60s. Now, that is pretty cold, but the record is -81 in the Yukon in 1947 according to a quick search. This is not for you, Jed. I know you know this. I am just trying to save a second post. Models have been having crazy amounts of feedback this winter. I think they are vastly overdoing certain features(Baja, NW Pac lows on repeat, western Canada cold?) which causes wild feedback all over the Western Hemisphere. I am not sure why this is happening. I don't know if there is a data ingest problem or programming has been changed/updated across models. Maybe they have a bug? But I have observed some pretty big errors. It reminds me of the 4' of snow forecast for Charlotte one year...and it never materialized. It was feedback which sometimes occurs to the SE of the southern tip of the Apps. Places on the map to watch for feedback...Baja, NW Pac, Aleutians(but not as bad as one would think IMHO), and Greenland. Now, the fun thing about that area of South Carolina which tends to feedback....sometimes it actually has extreme precip events. Think Helene. All of those other places have had extreme events...sometimes I think models go to that extreme due to those data sets. I would guess that Canada is going to be very, very cold this winter. That is a pretty easy guess as it already has been there this season. I think it finds its way south 1-2 times, and that will be plenty for most. Like you, I don't see even 100 year cold up there right now. But we'll see. Not everything is feedback though. I guess maybe the thing that concerns me some is that many of these cold fronts are getting much colder as we get closer to the event - that is kind of unusual. That might be a signal that the air mass up there is strong. We have good snowpack for it to move quickly. I would be more than thrilled to track an all-time great Arctic outbreak w/ lots of snow. I just don't know that we are gonna get much lead time on that... That said, I do think the strength of the cold is currently and is going to be in the future...a problem for modeling this winter. We have had some winters where we get a trough in the East, and there is only Canadian or weak polar air to fill it. This stuff is legit Arctic air. Let's not forget the SSW....we haven't had the cold dive to our side of the planet with that recently. But Russia and/or China have been hammered when that occurs. Sometimes, it does come to our side of the planet. Is this one of our years? Maybe, and there is some evidence to support that but just to early to know. edit: On an interesting note, my daytime highs for the past couple of months have sometimes been well under the point and click forecasts. I am ready for a few days of warm air. I keep waiting on some warm mornings! It was not warm this morning.

Maybe I just missed it but I didn’t really expect snow today. Maybe half an inch?

CTP just posted on FB about Friday. That feels significant.

It's sad to see what you've become.

Hoping for 1” but this could end up mood flakes.

Well that was the difference between 1-2” and nothing. NYC in mid 30s right now, so shouldn’t expect anything except some white rain maybe. Marginal events like this would have likely worked in the past for a few inches. Not anymore

Lots of overrunning snow to sleet to freezing rain

You know when Larry lashes out, it's bad

those off hour runs tend to do that it seems 6z, 12z show one thing, the others something else, weird trend I've noticed.

I'd be surprised if the blocking trains strong enough to whiff us.

18z gfs snowfall Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk