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This is such a sensitive track and intensity forecast. Just a few miles south or north would make a huge difference in intensity even though the catastrophic rainfall looks highly likely.

The HAFS suite shows just how dire the slow recurve scenario would be with regards to a catastrophic flooding / mudslide scenario. The general wind and pressure intensities may be overdone, but the amount of rainfall will be extreme regardless.

You mean a ‘26? No, running my ‘24 for at least another couple years. With the horrible year in ‘24(it’s first season), last winter was almost like its first real season. Was able to bond with her last season, and she’s a great machine.

Given the slow recurve motion, Jamaica is facing a catastrophic flooding and mudslide situation.

Don, Everything that Mark said is 100% spot on…couldn’t have said it better myself. As he said, if you haven’t ever ridden one, see if you can take a little trip with a tour company…to see if it’s for you? You’ll know it if you like/love it-the bug bites hard if it’s something you like. But if you’ve never ridden one, I’d go try it before investing any money. It’s a great sport/hobby, but the machines are very powerful (even the lower more moderately powered ones aren’t slugs) and can get away from anybody, but especially so for inexperienced riders in an instant. And the high/ultra performance sleds are absolute rockets on the snow, so you want to learn and gain experience safely and enjoyably. As Mark said, the 600 ACE non turbo models by Ski Doo are fabulous to learn on, but the other brands(Polaris and Arctic Cat) have similarly powered/similar class sleds like that too. Any other questions, just ask.

Ehh he put words together to still make him relevant that is about all I got from it.

This last post I made about him is to make sure I’m not losing my mind. Also, communicating to him and actually getting a response is very difficult. So, I’d rather just talk to my ENSO thread buddies here and see what y’all think.

Here is some snow for you - this late October early November setup is reminding me of 2012 potential east coast hurricane next week and potential snowstorm 2 weeks later....

I still do not know why you guys focus so much on this guy. If you have issues with what he says call him out on the platform he is posting this information on.

What in tarnation is Bastardi talking about….why is he saying 2010-1 is a 30 mb QBO analog to 2025-6? They’re opposites! Can someone here make sense of this? Metric 2010/11 (Actual) 2025/26 (Forecast) Similarity / Difference QBO Phase at 30 hPa – Oct +8 m/s (weak westerly) +10 to +12 m/s (moderate westerly) High similarity – both start in waning westerly phase QBO Phase at 30 hPa – Dec –5 m/s (early easterly onset) –8 to –12 m/s (early easterly) Very close – both transition in December QBO Phase at 30 hPa – Jan–Feb –25 to –30 m/s (strong easterly peak) –22 to –28 m/s (strong easterly) Excellent analog – both reach deep easterly regime QBO Descent Rate ~1 km/month (normal) ~1 km/month (normal) Identical Vertical Structure (50–10 hPa) Easterlies descending from 20 hPa → 50 hPa by Feb Easterlies descending from 15 hPa → 50 hPa by Feb Near-identical shear zone timing ENSO State Moderate La Niña (ONI: –1.4°C) Weak La Niña (ONI: –0.6 to –0.9°C) Moderate difference – 2010/11 colder; 2025/26 milder baseline Polar Vortex Response Major SSW on Jan 20 → vortex split Elevated SSW risk (30–40% probability) Similar setup, but 2010/11 had confirmed SSW Northern Hemisphere Winter Outcome • Coldest U.S. East winter in 30 yrs • Record snow: NYC 61", Chicago 57" • Blocked pattern (–NAO/–AO) • Above-average cold/snow risk: East Coast, Midwest, N. Europe • Potential blocking, but less extreme than 2010/11 Strong analog for pattern, but amplitude likely lower due to weaker La Niña

43.6 at 12 midnight which is coldest for time of the season

Agree. Sadly, had it done this a few days ago, it might have slipped through the weakness.

Cold air is 4000 ft up, in WVA

Pretty impressive convective blow up over the center now. If Melissa can maintain central convection upshear, the storm should take off. We've seen a few organization attempts that have failed, let's see if this one can succeed.

Something used and relatively inexpensive. You don’t want to jump in with a huge investment until you know if it’s something you like. If you look around Facebook marketplace or Craigslist you can find decent deals. If you have never been on one, you might want to try one out a tour company. They usually have moderately powered sleds that are set up for easy learning. As for specific makes/models, I really like Ski Doo 4 strokes. For a beginner, they are reliable, easy sleds to learn on, particularly the non-turbo models. My wife and son have both had 600 ACEs. They are a very good sled for beginners. As you gain experience you can move up to bigger motors like @WinterWolfand @dryslothave. There are too many stories of newcomers hopping on powerful sleds that they can’t control ending tragically.

Keep it moving west

The 18z Euro AI is almost exactly the 11pm NHC track

Wow you guys are COLD! And where I am we may be actually getting some badly needed rain tomorrow night!

For a beginner, is there a particular make/model that you’d recommend?

Was told tonight we will need to turn the furnace on this weekend. @Itstrainingtime I mentioned how disappointed this would make you.

With a robust CAD setup, there is a significant chance that there will be at least one day next week with highs only in the 40s in the Triad .

Did you snow check a 25?

Very happy with my Comp E-Tec Turbo R. Incredibly clean running, precise and very little smoke for a 2-stroke as you know. Cleanest two strokes out there for sure.

For sure!

And priced as such.