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Thinking the biggest risk is the transfer of energy to the coastal low.

Do you think Dunwoody could get any sleet or mostly all freezing rain?

hr240 Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Anyone have a link that shows the EPO index forecast? Thanks.

Sunscreen kidding aside, we have a former NWS guy at our church. Long retired. He told me 15 years ago this area was probably one of the most difficult areas to forecast in North America.

Boston / SNE news stations love to take a pass on actually making a call for Cape Cod during storms like this. Always seem to cut the Cape in half with two shades / buckets of 8-12" & 12-18". Heads they win, tails you lose!

Didn’t 2/1/21 give you guys like 20”? But I agree the last few winters have been lousy and N NJ was unlucky a number of times when my area did well.

Can i pull out another 16”+ or 20”+?

Hingham elevation. Turkey hill

Round 1 may be getting an early start with snow already being reported in Central KS.

What liquid ratio does a Kuchera use? Is it 15-1 or 20-1?

The needle has barely moved on the snow totals. I was expecting it to be closer to what the Euro was showing.

Who remembers using LFM and facsimile for maps in ether school or work? I was remembering following storms, and it cracks me up with all the data now, it is still tricky.

I input this into ChatGPT, assigned weights to each model, and came up with a weighted Prior to Flip QPF of .66” and Time of Flip of 16z (11am). 5-8” seems like a fair forecast based on that.

@psuhoffman re: your request from the other thread:

Seems like the 12z models shifted south a bit... or maybe a quicker transfer to the EC. Still like where we sit at this point if the energy can hang back longer.

CMC was close to something fun Thursday

Yeah it is more of a gentle slide or evolution towards other modeling but it's bidirectional. I am a bit more optimistic today than I was yesterday, for sure. Still think the GFS is gonna deteriorate a bit though.

It has trended warmer...and some of the warmer guidance like the GGEM has trended colder...they are meeting in the middle...for us right on the line where exactly that middle is means a lot

GFS is consistent with another storm signal in a week. One run warm nosed - apparently always a possibility. The rest are all snow. Euro will find it again. Random cold air thoughts. Being from the Plains we ALWAYS locked in shallow cold harder than models. I tried that a few times in East Tenn. Learned real quick I'm not in Kansas anymore. Warm nose wins in the Great Valley. Then east of the Apps right back to cold wins, bigly CAD right up there with Denver. Amazing.

Seems to be doing better with this system so far. Its over a week out so I doubt it has the details correct

Did I just see this come south a tick or two? Please elaborate

We need to see what the 3km NAM does as we get closer in but the 12km at 12Z fits my idea that the sleet line makes it to the S shore of LI or just south and then collapses.

@caviman2201 thanks for the UK map...any way you could post the one through the end of the storm...I think north of 70 gets more snow after 18z based on the thermal and precip maps. Thanks

12z and GFS still hasn't really caved, not what I was expecting.