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Is that the AI (first time seen on Tropical Tidbits) doing the smoothing on GFS?

Those runs were fairly mild though. I’m going to pretend 12z didn’t happen. It’s definitely volatile.

Might have happened then too, but I'm definitely thinking of one from prior to the Feb 6th, 2010 storm.

I teach acquired brain injury clients on regaining basic life skills so we are cut from the same cloth. Nah we always have the memories thrown in conversation usually waiting for the next model run. Thank you for what you do both my parents died with dementia. Toughest times of my life. At any rate modeling isn't terrible at all smoothed out.

Part of me is wondering if there is some scaling back in that regard due to climo. I agree that we certainly may end up below average as a whole, but unless we get some persistent HP to our north...we are going to be caked into a southwesterly surface flow. But the boundary is going to be very close by. It really can go either way

My take is that it isn't over until it's really over. Until mid-late January last year we thought February would be a torch... it ended up being around average and we got that 4-8" snow event. Unfortunately there was some heartbreak with the late-February phantom but it still could be argued that was our best pattern of the whole winter--in the month that we thought would torch.

For Baltimore:

I think (?) he's been getting a lot of negative comments to some of his posts recently. There's been a noticeable difference in his "tone" over the past couple of months. I've really pulled back on following and posting because of it. I'm pretty sure that this post is probably in response to people's comments. Regardless, I haven't been sharing as much from him lately for a variety of reasons. I'm not trying to poke the bear so to speak.

Still amazing how modeling keeps us 4 to 5 degrees BN with above normal heights in the extended. Strong signal for volatility. Peeps living and dying each op run are going to go crazy with a pattern like this. Oscillation city

If that does turn out to be the case that would eat up prime nina climo--February and that SE ridge man (unless something were to change that this season)

Just was talking to a guy from nws on slack, his standpoint is as follows. Hello Michael. Current thinking is that this is a high-end advisory wind event. An isolated gust to warning thresholds is not out of the question, but a widespread warning-level event is not likely in spite of the strong winds aloft. These winds from aloft would have a tougher time reaching the surface vs some strong/high wind events we had a month or so ago. Regarding its speed. It looks like it will cross your area at roughly 1pm give or take an hour.

Definitely annoying. Go forecast in Georgia or something….

torchin

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They updated there afd, rather early today, and say there not confident enough to issue high wind Warnings but will be vocal of the potential.

It starts with patience Then we kick the can Which requires more patience Then just maybe we can buckle up

My old stomping grounds are looking at mid 70’s!

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... -- Changed Discussion -- A new moon occurring Friday evening will result in as little as 1 3/4 ft of surge causing minor coastal flooding and 2 1/2 ft causing moderate impacts. A high end gale south-southeast flow ahead of a strong frontal system will bring likelihood for widespread minor coastal flooding during the Friday morning high tide cycle for our Tri-State south facing coasts and even tidally affected rivers (Hackensack and Hudson R), with localized moderate along the southern bays of Queens and W LI. Models are in good agreement with peak winds occurring during the time of high tide for much of the region, with frontal passage occurring after high tide. This has increased the potential for widespread minor coastal flooding across vulnerable coastal locales along NY/NJ harbor, Jamaica Bay, great South Bay, twin forks of LI, and coastal Westchester/CT. Water levels will likely get close to moderate flood levels along Jamaica Bay and western Great South Bay, combined with rain and wave impacts, during morning commute, a coastal flood warning has been issued for exacerbated flood impacts. Otherwise, coastal flood advisories have been expanded into southern CT (wave action of 3-5 ft during high tide), E Bergen County and NE Suffolk County for similar reasoning as above/below. With S/SE gales ramping up through the time of high tide (favorable direction for surge along south facing coasts), high wave action onto open water coasts, and potential coincidence of heavy rain, this forecast has been leaned towards the higher end of plausible scenarios. A blend between SNAP-EX 50th percentile (NYHOPS 95th percentile), ETSS and STOFS was used. Offshore winds behind the cold front will end the coastal flood threat with subsequent high tides. -- End Changed Discussion

SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- Key Messages: * A strong cold front will move through near noontime on Friday, bringing strong to locally damaging winds and moderate to heavy rain, along with isolated thunderstorms. * Potential tying or record breaking temperatures early Friday fall back into the 20s Friday night, to below normal levels. Any leftover moisture may freeze if drying does not occur. Rain ahead of a cold front becomes more likely as the nighttime progresses with most of the area likely seeing rainfall by sunrise Friday. Strong low level jet lift and moisture convergence, plus a potential convective element with elevated instability, could cause the rain to be heavy at times. The heaviest rainfall likely occurs starting around sunrise with some impacts to the morning commute with the threat continuing until the cold front passes through late morning/early afternoon with a line of convectively-enhanced showers. Areas of minor/poor drainage flooding are anticipated. Flash flooding is not a concern at this point with the system pushing through fairly quickly and the liquid equivalent of any remaining snow pack is probably no more than a tenth of an inch. Still a chance of a shower in the afternoon behind the cold front, an maybe even some snow mixed in well NW of the city towards sundown. Regarding winds, an 80-90kt low level jet at 925mb shifts through much of the coastal area during Friday morning. Forecast soundings however show a strong low level inversion, so it appears that winds are going to have a tough time mixing down to the surface. It might take surface temps reaching 60 degrees to get mixing deep enough to bring down gusts strong enough for high wind warning consideration, and some spots may warm up close to this. Thinking is that about 50% of the 925mb jet winds could still mix down anyway, which translates to higher-end wind advisory gusts, but cannot completely rule out a gust or two that reaches warning criteria. Not enough confidence that the occurrence would be widespread enough to warrant a high wind warning, but will keep messaging the threat of isolated 60mph gusts in the advisory. No change to the end time of the advisory, but can`t rule out 46mph+ gusts for a couple of hours after midnight. High temperatures likely occur in the morning right ahead of the rain - generally in the mid to upper 50s. This is close to record high temperatures for the day. See the climate sections below for these records. Temps then fall somewhat with the rainfall, then fall more steadily in the afternoon with the start of cold air advection behind the front. A more rapid drop in the temperatures then happens this evening as the advection strengthens behind the front. Depending on how much winds can dry out surfaces before temps fall below freezing in the evening, there could be spots where freezing of standing water occurs. Dry weather for Friday night with high pressure building in. Winds will gradually diminish overnight. The high pressure ridge then shifts through the region Saturday afternoon and keeps us dry through Saturday night. Any precip with weak warm advection at night should remain to our north. Saturday`s high temperatures are expected to be just below normal.

With tulips to follow [emoji255] [emoji847]

As a caregiver for a dementia patient believe me i know memories are the first to be distorted or altered. The point is whenever I see people discussing '96 or '15 I don't even have to look at the models to know that things probably aren't going well in terms of snow.

EPS followed the ECMWF warmer but it could be a one-off. AI version still has the back door front chances northeast Tenn. This is all for closer to the New Year. Basically we're looking for a little -NAO. Questions are mainly around whether the Pacific side will help, or just give us the Chinook finger. Of course Carvers I'm always down for mixing weather and basketball. Just like the Vols are back on track, perhaps the ECMWF will get colder again. The warm GEFS does not concern me. PS that Vols game was about the only major vs major this week - a nice treat!

They have dramatically upped wind amounts from Max of 40-45 mph gusts to gusts over 60 mph now.

LOL, the NC/VA state line getting 200-300% of yearly snowfall.

I like it a lot better than 16 straight days of chinooks on deterministic runs. LOL. It might still get warm, but I gotta have room for some surprises.