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Just crossed over the 5" mark up here on the mountain near Seven Devils. Been absolutely pouring for the last few hours now. Hope all you folks in the foothills are staying safe.

People travel for beautiful scenery and what interests them. Seeing fall foliage in New England is on the bucket list for many people who enjoy traveling. It's become more and more popular. Most people wouldn't travel to experience exciting weather, but many of us here would because that's what interests us.

Jason Boyer saying confirmed landslide in McDowell county.

I would also be careful with the very linear line of thought that there can't be any pattern deviation because it's so east based.

Regarding the LTG frequency, Isaias was rapidly going PT/ET, and strong baroclinic influences were present before landfall. Dry air intrusion and wind shear are going to lead to stronger updrafts b/c more CAPE present. Asymmetries in the circulation are going to result in frontal-type convergence zones, further promoting stronger updrafts Also, chasers reported it was a "cold" hurricane. Temps along the FL coast were largely below 70 prior to landfall. That's not your typical tropical environment. LTG can be frequent in eyewall in an intense HU in the deep tropics. Recons have reported this many times in strong Cat 4s and Cat 5s. What happens is that when a TC gets this intense, updrafts in the eyewall, which normally max out just below typical tstm updraft strength, cross the threshold to make it favorable for LTG.

Yeah I’m not saying it right, but I hate that look personally.

My postulation is basin-wide/hybrid forcing for that reason...like 1957 and 1965, but warmer.

0.11” here. Yay.

Nice scenery can be found in many places in New England, but yeah, it’s a different experience to travel and see the foliage over vast mountainous landscapes, especially when it’s a generational year.

Anyone got any gauge or public reports? Saw Jason mention Crooked Creek has 5”+

4.16 and rounds of downpours continue

Flood Advisory now. Absolutely dumping closing in on 5" at 4.78" currently. Flood Advisories run the entire escarpment with this firehose set-up. 0z HRRR has another 3-4" with heavy rain on and off all night, outside chance of hitting that 10" it was spitting out yesterday. Wild dude. My friend over near the TN line only had an inch in about an hour ago. The crazy swings across the county will never not fascinate me.

Yeah I’d exercise caution with the “west based forcing because previous Ninos had forcing more west based than forecast” idea. It’s a valid point, but keep in mind this is east-based beyond historical precedent.

When I turned on the game in Cleveland and they said they were getting rain from a gulf low before we were I cringed. Glad it’s not winter lol.

Raining

Yup, that area and Litchfield County are the best overall, but nice scenery can be found everywhere. HelI, I just wake up, drink coffee and look at these trees in my backyard and I'm happy.

In the TCR, I think NHC lowered MIlton's landfall to 115 mph. but I still think that is too high. It got severely sheared well before landfall and despite a pressure at landfall that would normally suggest 115 mph winds, when a system is heavily sheared and going PT/ET, the standard pressure/wind relationship for TC falls apart quickly.

As I said, we are in an active period of the AMO that favors increased HU activity in the Atlantic, so of course in the last 25 years it is more common. Why wouldn't it be? This active period started in 1995. 1970-94 was a suppressed period overall. And going back to the 1950s and 60s, technology did not allows us to detect rapid intensification as well and the true strength of many HUs (decent satellite coverage did not exist until about 1966), so that made it all appear less common then despite in an active period at that time.

Modoki is ridiculous. This is the strongest east-based event on record. The subsurface which moves west to east is further west than all Super Nino analogs, which means the east-based nature of the event has staying power. The ECMWF still has Nino 1+2 at +3c next May

Yes I have noticed that. When Helene's eye was completely inland about 1 hr after landfall, they still had it at 140 mph (same as landfall). No way. Friction acts immediately and bring down sustained winds quickly, and it is apparent only a few miles inland. What a HU is assigned for winds when the centroid of the eye crosses the coast is valid over water only.

Anthony, Thanks for posting the DT update. 1. We don’t even know what the QBO is doing anymore thanks to you know who. But, based on where it was early in 2026, there was very little chance that it would NOT be W based this winter. *Edited due to typo* 2. I think that the usefulness of Judah’s SAI is questionable.

Agreed and that’s what is great about foliage, any rolling topography covered in color is awesome. Your area of NE CT is top tier, always loved going to the lake in the fall, the quiet corner. Fields, hills, rock walls, barns, foliage.

I'm in peak winter mode. Worried about waking up tomorrow with a spotty or mostly empty radar then seeing the dreaded crawl on TWC, "winter storm warning canceled".