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How much of an ice impact do we see now for the central and southern valley. Does anyone else not believe those surface temps get that high? .

Yeah, yeah, man, it's cool. I'm not real hip on the evolution so thanks. I looked over some of the stuff that blizzard posted last night and it looks like it might have been throwing back some snow at us. So I guess that kind of image and wish is stuck in my head. And yeah, I realize if it's not tucked i'm not quite in the right spot for death banding..

HHHR up to bat .

Those maps can only ever go out 72 hours.

"In house" models seem to always have been a hype/marketing tool more than anything anyway.

I have seen several maps showing over 10” for KILN, felt that the totals were overdone. I may have been wrong in that assessment.

The red taggers are getting snarky. I like it! So humbling.

I was wondering about this too and haven't seen it discussed much. The models all give a wind output, you can check them. For example this panel shows wind *gusts* above the surface when the low is forming off the coast sunday evening. Pretty breezy, but IDK if this would verify blizzard in the metros. Worse to the east.

The mix never made it to the CT shore in 2013.

This type of system is not gonna produce 2’ in a broad area. You want to see the coastal take over and slow to even entertain it.

Ukie Ensembles. Not bad

They don’t have the precipitation type and rate for the ECMWF-AIFS like they do for the other models on Pivitol.

3.5 inches. Condo Association is plowing. Ony do that if they measure 3+. Surprised when I got up.

When will the main thread be locked down to storm mode? I learn a lot reading on here but it’s difficult scrolling through meaningless posts. .

sounds about right....i'm hoping my mulch doesn't warm up too much

Depends if the models can stop themselves from laughing hysterically at the absurdity of someone calling the Gulf of Mexico the "Gulf of America." If they can avoid frying their circuits from uncontrollable giggling, the resulting model outputs should become more accurate. (ETA: sorry, Mappy - didn't see your post until after I posted this. But...come on, lol)

I mean nothing supports 2’ really. I’d want to see like at least 1.7” QPF modeled in a broad area to entertain its

Me too. That is how us Fredericktonians do it!

With consistent QPF over 1 inch and some case? And ratio is projected to be quite high due to a frigid air mass and very deep DGZ. Most models have had this for Southern New England at least for two days now, right?

Euro Ai is more gfs like than euro like fyi. .

Maybe only slushy accumulations on grass car tops? @paulythegun

NAM is always amped, that's what the A stands for.

I'd bet on a compromise. We all still win. Lots of snow follow by a mini ice age, followed by lake effect quality cold smoke on the tail. I feel like this is a mini blizzard of 96 here in the lowlands.

Of course there is

How much accumulation do you think WTN and WNC sees from this? I typically say half of this map but their temps are 20-25 for the duration for both areas of ZR. Rates are not insanely heavy .1-.15 an hour