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What is more likely in your backyard, a 7" snow event or 7" rain event

Can you explain how from 1987-2002, 15 winters, 10 of them were well below normal (8 with less than 18" with the 2 others below 5") and how that is any different than the past 9 winters in terms of winter storm tracks then vs now? It took the jim dandy of a winter in 95/96 and 93/94 to pretty much save that entire stretch, otherwise the snow average for those 15 years would have been below 19". That was my area, but I'm in the tri-state so many experienced the same thing. It is funny how that stretch resembles the "new norm" of the current stretch we are on with snowfall totals.

Leaves are peak now and absolutely gorgeous around here.

Definitely gusted past 50 here. My basketball hoop almost blew off the curb into the road. That hasn’t happened before at the new house.

I started and stopped reading the article with this sentence. I'm sold. Some of Washington, D.C.’s most memorable winters have come with the QBO in its easterly phase. The multi-blizzard winter of 2009-2010 (56.1") was an easterly QBO winter, as was 2002-2003 (29.0")...

Just PC and breezy here, so far. One of the passing clouds might yet toss a handful. Forecast 1/4" to 1/2" came in at 0.14" (which included the <0.1" progged for the daytime.)

Impossible-no, but would anyone reputable (not someone putting out clickbait for subscriptions) sensibly predict them with the overall pattern we have now? I would think no.

Graupel now in this little shower in Randolph. Wind kicking up again too.

DCA average is 13.7". I hope your last 5 were a bit better than that, even if way below the average there.

stay safe

I'm hoping and still waiting for a sub 32 morning.

What were those seasons relative to normal?

We bagged 22" dumps in both 22-23 and 23-24. PWM got only 4.2" from the 1st one (Dec 16-17) and 5.3" from #2 (3/24), so maybe not. Just counting on a better 2nd half than last winter, which had but one event over 4" after Christmas. None of the previous 26 winters here had that kind of fail.

Yup. I could see the snow curtains approaching here from the NW before it hit.

Here how the euro trended valid 6z this morning. It sliced and diced mid level winds every run.

Graupel shower with gusty winds through Ayer an hour or so ago. Bouncing rattling particles with more frozen then liquid at one point. Some of the bigger pieces seemed to carry a bit in the wind, so it gave the affect as though it really wanted to flip. Could see the curtains in the sky moving quickly by. The sun was milked by anvil cirrus as it moved off ... low top convection-like. But the freezing level/mix temp types were not far over head. First frozen of the season in the books!

But not impossible

I like WxBell maps the best and their map interface is easy and works good on mobile. Plus JB is actually entertaining to listen to on his daily videos even if he does see a winter storm behind every blade of grass.

that might be why, yeah.. add that to the plausible reasons for model amplitude biases out in time. Over-assimilation in data sparse regions.

I would agree. @40/70 Benchmark has mentioned a few times that the indicators are not screaming KU’s barreling up the coast and dumping on the I-95 corridor. Especially with a very muted STJ (Niña/-PMM)

I feel like you’re due for an old fashioned interior Maine snowy winter.

We cant really get above normal with one. That would take a january 2016 type event which happens like once every 20 years.

My choices were merely our averages: Watches, did not track Warnings, 5.6 (Median 6.0) Biggest event, 14.8" (Median 13.5") Checked all but CT/RI for pre-Dec 1.

What I said is that our new normals since 2018-2019 have been in that lower range around 15”. We are going to need a shift back to benchmark storm tracks at least occasionally for totals getting back above 20” some winters. If we don’t see significant shifts to this pattern over the next 5-10 years, then it will signal that the new average will settle under 20” instead of the mid 20s which has been the very long term average. I came out with 3 potential scenarios a while back. 1) Snowfall continues at these lower levels and only during an occasional season like we had back in 2021 does it get back above average. 2) Snowfall experiences a temporary bounce in the remainder off the 2020s with more benchmark storm tracks than we have had in the last 7 winters. But it could only be a temporary bounce as warming continues. Steeper declines resume during the 2030s. 3) Largest volcanic eruption in hundreds of years cools the planet for 3-7 years with the potential for well above average snowfall. Very low skill forecast since volcanism on this scale is very challenging to forecast ahead of time.