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We knew. This is why the tenor folks can’t have it both ways. This followed almost the exact pattern we’ve seen every phantom coastal this winter.

Temu wooden teeth has his “Don’t tread on mdecoy” shirt on today

It's not over, 6z GFS moved back NW for a clip/fringe, EURO AI a solid tic NW gets warning snow to most of ENE, EURO with a laughable amp up at 6z and way NW , fringes ENE now with a monster..

The lack of posts in here should be telling

Unfortunately most models went the wrong way at 0z for the Sunday chance. The 6z AI Euro still offers some hope for a moderate event chance.

There’s a lot of energy pieces in the 500mb flow to sort out. It looks like the main piece is phasing in later on guidance now, firing the coastal more offshore. That deep 500mb shortwave still passes over us, so could still have some lighter snow in that scenario. One thing that I saw hints of in various intensity across the overnight op guidance is presence of an NORLUN/inverted trough type feature… something that just occurred in New England a week ago. That’d be a more localized thing, and probably something hard to nail down the exact location of. 6z GFS had the feature a good bit further west vs 0z GFS, for instance. Then there’s the 84 hr 6z NAM with the wave coming through a full 24 hours early, full disclaimer on it being the 84 hr NAM. But I certainly wouldn’t say the models have a handle on this yet.

WB 6Z AI EURO

This winter reminds me of 1977 when I was an elementary school kid. Long stretch of deep cold and ice-encrusted snow cover, but rather poor on the total snowfall amount.

Thank you, I’ll bring it up to my therapist next time I see her and get back to you. Enjoy the rain

Again STFU

Dr. No Returns

Fun while it lasted Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

6z EuroAI still showing a "storm" with similar accumulations to the 0z run. All I have is TT to go off of, so no snowfall map is available to me.

33 and foggy. No rain yet despite some decent radar returns overhead earlier. The 0z suite would be quite a kick in the nuts but nothing we aren’t used to ha.

Actually you want the MJO to be in phase 8 or phase 1.

Yeah, that was a big take away for me this morning when interrogating like I normally do once I get settled in. The afternoon package yesterday started giving me hints of this being a sloppier phase, or phasing a bit too late leading to a more eastern solution, or weaker and south. I think the major bomb solutions are relatively off the table, but there is still some time for adjustment. So long as the vort ejection gets sheared to the west before any phasing, we will not be looking at any massive outputs, but we can still score something in this setup. It's not completely dead yet........

Look at the bright side - If this thing doesn't develop, we're that much closer to next winter!

I don’t have a good gut feeling on this tonight . Hoping 1-3” but not confident in that

there’s our little weather man, how’s the big snowstorm looking there slugger

“ the grass always seems greener on the other side.”

Help me to understand Mappy. What do you find so offensive about saying that a storm is unlikely based on climo? It’s literally the best most accurate analysis in there. I don’t get the controversy at all. I’m not disruptive either. My posts are maybe 1 post per like 50 pages. If you 5 posted ne I’d still have 4 excess posts a day. I think You all just need someone to bully. It’s sad.

When the EURO is alone showing a hit = glue factory When the EURO is alone showing a miss = a king in his court.

Well there’s always the Hail Mary that the models lose it then get it back but the euro never being invested was a red flag. It’s maybe not coming

That usually ends up working out for places further north.