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85/73 with no wind at all and the air is getting smoky. I feel bad for the guys building my neighbor's new deck out in this

With the last 3 super El Niños, (1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16), the last region to go back to ENSO neutral was region 1+2. That region stayed in a strong El Niño until spring in all 3, while the others went back first

Yeah only down to 81F on the day so far. If no rogue storm pops up later we could at least tie the all-time or have the first 80+ daily low there. (You, of course, know this. I just like talking sometimes. ) ETA: LOL! I should've read the post above before commenting. I was still on the last page.

And it continues. "Sigh"

Here's the continental composite using the 1861-1900 average to detrend. Note that a simple detrend, while helpful, still assumes that SST changes since then will scale linearly in terms of forcing (almost certainly not going to be the case). Nevertheless, the overall pattern makes it clear that the continent will mostly suffer from high frequency intrusion of downslope events, enhanced by anomalous moisture transport and a surplus moist static energy.

Despite the clouds / smoke still to 79 and a chance to extend the 90+ readings here.

Meanwhile Texas is getting absolutely crushed again

Fell short of any triple digits here in NW Philly yesterday but did make it up to 96 after a 73 low. it was still brutal with the humidity and dps into the upper 70s... until some convective outflow boundary from the upstate storms, washed down over the city and knocked the dps down almost 10 degrees. Currently hazy, smokey and 80 with dp 72,

July 16 2006: A heat burst occurs over west central and central Minnesota. The temperature at Canby jumped from 91 degrees to 100 degrees in 40 minutes from 10:35pm to 11:15pm. At the same time the dew point temperature dropped from 63 to 32 degrees. Heat bursts are caused by dying thunderstorms with very warm air aloft. 1963: A downpour falls at St. Charles, where half a foot of rain accumulates in one day. For Thursday, July 16, 2026 1920 - A severe hailstorm over parts of Antelope and Boone counties in Nebraska stripped trees of bark and foliage, ruined roofs, and broke nearly every window facing north. (The Weather Channel) 1946 - The temperature at Medford, OR, soared to an all-time high of 115 degrees to begin a two week heat wave. During that Oregon heat wave the mercury hit 100 degrees at Sexton Summit for the only time in forty years of records. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1975 - An early afternoon thunderstorm raked the east side of Tucson, AZ, with gale force winds, heavy rain, and numerous lightning strikes. A thirteen year old boy was swept through a forty foot long culvert by raging waters before being rescued. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern U.S. ended a record string of thirty-nine consecutive days of 100 degree heat at Tucson, AZ. A thunderstorm at Bullhead City, AZ, produced wind gusts to 70 mph reducing the visibility to near zero in blowing dust. Southerly winds gusting to 40 mph pushed temperature readings above 100 degrees in the Northern Plains. Rapid City, SD, reported a record high of 106 degrees, following a record low of 39 degrees just three days earlier. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thirty-seven cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 96 degrees at Bluefield, WV, and 104 degrees at Charleston WV were all-time records, and afternoon highs of 98 degrees at Binghamton, NY, 99 degrees at Elkins, WV, and 103 degrees at Pittsburgh PA, tied all- time records. Highs of 104 degrees at Baltimore, MD, and 105 degrees at Parkersburg WV were records for July, and Beckley, WV, equalled their record for July with a high of 94 degrees. Martinsburg, WV, was the hot spot in the nation with a reading of 107 degrees. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms raked the northeastern U.S. with large hail and damaging winds. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms developing along a stationary front drenched the Middle Atlantic Coast States with heavy rain, causing flooding in some areas. More than five inches of rain was reported near Madison and Ferncliff, VA. Hot weather prevailed in Texas. San Angelo reported a record high of 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 16 Thu National Cherry Day 16 Thu World Snake Day 16 Thu Artificial Intelligence Appreciation Day 16 Thu Manu’a Cession Day (in lieu) 16 Thu National Atomic Veterans Day 16 Thu National Corn Fritters Day 16 Thu National D.R.E.S.S. Syndrome Day 16 Thu National Personal Chef Day 16 Thu National Wedding Invitation Day 16 Thu Our Lady of Mount Carmel 16 Thu Rural Transit Day 16 Thu The Feast of Our Lady of Mount Carmel 16 Thu Guinea Pig Appreciation Day 16 Thu Fresh Spinach Day

I couldn't smell it but you could definitely tell it was higher up as the sun was orange and sky was a very weird color. Hard to describe.

Not liking this new norm

I thought there was a backup like the old GOES but that was long ago probably not the same. Using WEST I can see our region but I want to zoom in even if its low-res.

More on the not mild 1877-8 in much of the E US: NYC using 1869-1900 for normals Dec 37.4 (+3.2) AN Jan 29.9 (-0.4) NN Feb 32.3 (+1.2) NN So, DJF +1.3 NN with only Dec warmer than normal and even it wasn’t a torch https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx @csnavywx

I just got back from the low country south carolina for 2 weeks so the humidity honestly doesn't feel that bad compared to down there lol it is hot though! Side note, I'm not asthmatic but I'm noticeably breathing heavier when doing activity already and my eyes are very irritated. Be careful out there everyone, I think it's only supposed to get worse today and tomorrow.

Not too happy about that honestly. Like ofc it goes down at a really critical time

While not the ideal angle, at least the NOAA GOES-West - All States page, combined with the PurpleAir data, gives an idea where the plume is?

The sun looks like it did in 2023

Gotta love how the satellite's out of commission indefinitely the one day it's needed especially bad, lol...

We smoked out again, wake and bake. Looks like Mars.

Smells like the height of summer.

The variability we have been getting into mid-July is more a function of the mid-latitude wave pattern doing its own thing relative to the tropics through mid-July with the strong -PDO +AMO summer 2020s background pattern. It’s a first for the developing super El Niño composite including 2023, 2015, 1997, 1982, and 1972. The current forcing from 150E to 30W is more impressive than both 2015 and 1997 combined. This doesn’t rule out intervals of IO to MC forcing into the winter. But it could be an early sign than the -PDO +AMO mid-latitude enhanced ridge pattern could overlap with the super El Niño composite going into the winter.

However in the SE US, as has often been the case with super El Niño winters, 1877-8, was actually near normal (mild Dec, cold Jan, and NN Feb). For example, Asheville was mild in Dec but then had a cold and snowy Jan (8.5” from 2 storms) followed by a NN Feb. DJF averaged NN. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=gsp Also, Augusta and Savannah averaged NN.

Right now at work. This is how smoky it is inside my brother's work in Imlay City.

Gunky/smoky. Just smells musty outside.

Honestly, I don't think we have another option.