All Activity

Yeah, October is the only month of the year that has an opposite correlation to DJFM NAO. I don't know if that's true given 250+ years of examples though.

October DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 1.4 0.2 3.3 2.1 3.1

While the Euro is doing better with +1.2, it’s still too low also. Probably related to the models underestimating the strength of the WWBs in the longer range. The next Euro update on the 5th should be interesting when the warmer current conditions are incorporated into the new forecast.

WB EURO AI 6Z ensemble compared to 0Z ensemble for Sunday.

I guess summer has one last hurrah on Thursday/Friday. Then after that we might have a night that gets into the 30's on Tuesday

6z euro AI jumped back north for the weekend rain and it’s ensembles even more so.

As expected, the CFSv2 is going to be way off with Nino 1+2, forecasting a drop that never came.

I chased that storm.. may have been my first ever. In the Mts just outside of Roanoke. Had 6+. then a burst of rain, another 4+, back to rain then another few inches. Top depth in the morning was 8 inches.

I think it helped, but I noticed in these events with coastal convergence it’s more or less adding sheet rain type stuff vs the borderline convective elements that came in from the SE. So imo It added to it, but I think it would only explain some of the difference. I noticed earlier in the event it was more evident.

The season of cold fronts

It'll break for the daytime at some point, but you're caught in a nice band of stratus that extends NW to SE out of PA. Judging by guidance, you should see some sun by the late-morning hours, but then clouds look to roll back in again after 6 or so. Areas south of Rt 50 will see more sun today.

SEP 29: Records: Highs: EWR: 89 (1945) NYC: 88 (1945) LGA: 86 (1945) JFK: 82 (1948) Lows: EWR: 40 (1942) NYC: 42 (1942) LGA: 43 (1942) JFK: 44 (2000) Historical: 1896: This was one of the worst if not the worst Hurricanes to hit the Richmond area. This was just before the weather Bureau was set up in Richmond and there was no warning of the storm's approach. The hurricane was traveling at a high rate of speed probably 60 miles per hour and didn't last long when it hit the Richmond area because of its speed. But the wind damage was very significant and rainfall in the Richmond area was not particularly heavy because of the shortness of the storm. But with the Ford speed being so rapid it added to the wind velocities which were released hurricane force in many areas. (Ref. Hurricanes of the Middle Atlantic States by Rick Schwartz pps100-104) A major hurricane struck Cedar Key, FL, inundating the keys with a 10 foot storm surge. Headlines read, "Cedar Key Crushed," and "Town Almost Wiped Out." Famous for its cedar trees, the Keys featured several major pencil manufacturers that were wiped out by the storm. Moving rapidly to the north-northeast then north, the cyclone passed west of the Washington, DC area bringing wing gusts in excess of 60 mph. This former hurricane passing to the east of Washington, DC giving 62 MPH winds (fastest mile) and 51 mph sustained wind for five minutes and the barometer fell to 29.14 inches of mercury at 2250 in Washington, DC. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1914: Boston, Massachusetts has the coldest temperature of 34 °F for the month of September. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1915: A severe category 4 hurricane struck southeastern Louisiana and produced winds to 140 mph in Terrebone Parish. The pressure dropped to 952 millibars or 28.11 inches of mercury. 90% of the buildings were destroyed in the parish. 275 people were killed and $13 million dollars in damage was done. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1924: Norfolk saw winds reach 76 mph sustained from a cyclone that became nontropical over the Southeast U.S.. In Fauquier county, four inches of rain fell at Leads Manor on the 29th. In Richmond county, 4.60" of rain fell at Warsaw on the 30th. Richmond, VA recorded 2.19 inches of rain on the 29th and 2.85 inches on the 30th for a total of 5.04 inches. Leeds Manor (4.00"), Stuart (4.20"), Urbanna (3.80"), and Winchester (2.05") all set 24-hour rainfall records for September during this tempest. East Coast Rain Storm 1925: The world record for a 3 minute rainfall total was set in Haughton Grove, Jamaica where 1.75 inches of rain fell. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1927 - An outbreak of tornadoes from Oklahoma to Indiana caused 81 deaths and 25 million dollars damage. A tornado (possibly two tornadoes) cut an eight-mile long path across Saint Louis MO, to Granite City IL, killing 79 persons. The damage path at times was a mile and a quarter in width. The storm followed a similar path to tornadoes which struck in 1871, 1896, and 1959. (The Weather Channel) 1938: A tornado hit Charleston, SC at 8 AM and did $2 million in damage. A total of five tornadoes hit the city between 6:45am and 9 AM, killing 32 people. One of the tornadoes passed from James Island, over the Ashley River, to just west of the Fort Sumter Hotel, causing extensive damage on Market & Broad Streets. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1959 - A storm produced 28 inches of snow at Colorado Springs, CO. (David Ludlum) 1959:Hurricane Gracie made landfall near Beaufort, SC with a central pressure around 950 millibars or 28.05 inches of mercury. Beaufort recorded sustained winds of 97 mph with a peak gust to 138 mph. 10 people were killed in South Carolina and Georgia. As a weakening Gracie moved through the Mid Atlantic area on the 30th, she spawned an F3 tornado at Ivy, VA which killed 11 people. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1983 - Heavy rains began in central and eastern Arizona which culminated in the worst flood in the history of the state. Eight to ten inch rains across the area caused severe flooding in southeastern Arizona which resulted in thirteen deaths and 178 million dollars damage. President Reagan declared eight counties of Arizona to be disaster areas. (The Weather Channel) 1985: Denver, CO had a morning low of 17°, which set a record low temperature for the month of September. The afternoon high of 29° set the all-time record low maximum for the month. Grand Island, NE received 2 inches of snow their earliest snow on record. Other record lows included: West Yellowstone, MT: 3°, Wisdom, MT: 3°, Livingston, MT: 10°, Butte, MT: 10°, Red Lodge, MT: 11°, Dillon, MT: 11°, Boulder, MT: 11°, Valentine, MT: 14°, Cheyenne, WY: 14 °F. (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1986 - A week of violent weather began in Oklahoma which culminated in one of the worst flooding events in the history of the state. On the first day of the week early morning thunderstorms caused more than a million dollars damage in south Oklahoma City. Thunderstorms produced 4 to 7 inches of rain from Hobart to Ponca City, and another round of thunderstorms that evening produced 7 to 10 inches of rain in north central and northeastern sections of Oklahoma. (Storm Data) 1987 - A slow moving cold front produced rain from the Great Lakes Region to the Central Gulf Coast Region. A late afternoon thunderstorm produced wind gusts to 62 mph at Buffalo NY. Warm weather continued in the western U.S. In Oregon, the afternoon high of 96 degrees at Medford was a record for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - High pressure brought freezing temperatures to parts of Vermont and New York State. Burlington VT dipped to 30 degrees, and Binghamton NY reported a record low of 34 degrees. The high pressure system also brought cold weather to the Central Rocky Mountain Region. Alamosa CO reported a record low of 18 degrees, and Gunnison CO was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of just five degrees above zero. (National Weather Summary) 1989 - Seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date, as readings soared into the 80s and low 90s in the Northern Plateau and Northern Plains Region. Record highs included 91 degrees at Boise ID, and 92 degrees at Sheridan WY. The high of 100 degrees at Tucson AZ marked their 51st record high of the year, and their 92nd day of 100 degree weather. (National Weather Summary) 1991: Snow began in Caribou, ME during the evening ending early the next morning with 2.5 inches accumulating. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) Sep 30: Records: Highs: EWR: 89 (1986) NYC: 89 (1986) LGA: 88 (1988) JFK: 84 (1986) Lows: EWR: 38 (1942) NYC: 39 (1912) LGA: 43 (1947) JFK: 43 (1991) Historical: 1875: What weather observers “observe” has changed with time. Among the remarks noted by the Lynchburg, VA observer, was today’s migration of hundreds of squirrels across the James River. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1892: Central Park in New York City, NY concluded its wettest month ever with 16.85 inches of rain. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1896 - A hurricane formed on September 22 and lasted until September 30. It formed directly over the Lesser Antilles and hit Cuba, Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina, Virginia, Washington D.C., and Pennsylvania. Its maximum sustained winds were at 130 mph. The heaviest rainfall deposited in association with the storm was 19.96 inches at Glennville, Georgia. This hurricane was responsible for an estimated 130 deaths and $1.5 million in damage (1896 dollars). 1896: A hurricane moving through the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The system then tracked inland through the Southeast to the west of Washington, DC. Richmond suffered severely from the cyclone. Communication was gone early on during the storm the only line that remained open belonged to Western Union, the wire than ran to Wilmington, NC. The steeple of the Second Baptist church yielded to the storm, falling across main street. The Governor's Mansion survived the cyclone reasonably well. Damage totaled $150,000 at the state capital. In Petersburg the Imperial Hotel was unroofed. Smaller buildings experienced great damage. Fredericksburg saw its St. George's church steeple injured by the cyclone. In Alexandria the Third Baptist Colored church was razed to the ground ($5000). Over forty windmills were wrecked at Falls Church. Manassas saw its Evangelical Lutheran church blown six inches off its foundation. It was one of the worst storms on record in the District of Columbia as five-minute sustained winds peaked at 66 mph and gusts reached 80 mph; the pressures fell to 29.14" around 11 p.m.. At 10:30 p.m., the steeple to the New York Avenue Presbyterian Church crashed to the ground. A five story brick building was demolished, injuring the adjoining buildings, trapping five men under debris. Many buildings were unroofed. Capitol Hill saw even greater damage. Georgetown experienced its worst storm ever. A few panes of glass at the White House were shattered as well. Winds began to subside by 12:55 a.m.. In all, a $390,000 in damage was incurred. A flash flood at Staunton, along Lewis Creek, overran its banks, killing five. Seven inches of rain on the 30th swelled a large lake near the town, bursting its dam at 10 p.m.. Alarms were sounded as torrents of water rushed down Central Avenue, submerging everything in its path. Twenty-five houses were moved from their foundations before crumbling in the angry waters ($500,000). On the 1st, the and Chesapeake & Ohio Canal merged into one as flood waters increased their height and breadth. (Ref. for 1896 Fall Storm) 1924: Norfolk saw winds reach 76 mph sustained from a cyclone that became nontropical over the Southeast U.S.. In Fauquier county, four inches of rain fell at Leads Manor on the 29th. In Richmond county, 4.60" of rain fell at Warsaw on the 30th. Richmond, VA recorded 2.19 inches of rain on the 29th and 2.85 inches on the 30th for a total of 5.04 inches. Leeds Manor (4.00"), Stuart (4.20"), Urbanna (3.80"), and Winchester (2.05") all set 24-hour rainfall records for September during this tempest. East Coast Rain Storm 1932: Southern California: Tropical cyclone rainfall of 4.38 inches at Tehachapi in 7 hours causes flash floods on Auga Caliente and Tehachapi Creeks resulting in 15 deaths. (Ref. WxDoctor) 1934: DCA had the wettest September on record 17.45 inches at 24th and M street in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1943: A tropical storm that formed southwest of Bermuda moved to the northwest and into the Delmarva Peninsula overnight October 1 then dissipated in extreme northeastern Maryland as a depression. Atlantic City, NJ measured a gust to 78 mph and Cape Henry, VA gusted to 72 mph. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1959 - Three tornadoes spawned by the remnants of Hurricane Gracie killed 12 persons at Ivy VA. (The Weather Channel) 1961: An early season snowfall occurred over the Northern Plains with the greatest total of 4 inches falling in the New Ulm- Mankato area in Minnesota. Austin, MN had their earliest measurable snowfall with half an inch. Omaha, NE had its first September snow in 70 years. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1970: A nineteen-month drought in southern California came to a climax. The drought, that made brush and buildings tinder dry, set up the worst fire conditions in California history as hot Santa Anna winds sent the temperature soaring to 105 degrees at Los Angeles, and to 97 degrees at San Diego. During that last week of September whole communities of interior San Diego County were consumed by fire. Half a million acres were burned, and the fires caused fifty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1970 - A nineteen month drought in southern California came to a climax. The drought, which made brush and buildings tinder dry, set up the worst fire conditions in California history as hot Santa Anna winds sent the temperature soaring to 105 degrees at Los Angeles, and to 97 degrees at San Diego. During that last week of September whole communities of interior San Diego County were consumed by fire. Half a million acres were burned, and the fires caused fifty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1977 - The temperature at Wichita Falls, TX, soared to 108 degrees to establish a record for September. (The Weather Channel) 1979: This was the eighth day of 29 consecutive days when no measurable rain fell at Chicago, IL. The only measurable rain for the month came on the 1st with 0.01 inches. This was their driest September on record. Rockford, IL only received 0.05 inches of rain; their driest month ever. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1985: An early season snowstorm covered much of the Arrowhead Region of Minnesota with 7 to 9 inches of snow. Some snow depths reported for the event, which ended the next day, were 7 inches at Babbitt and Aurora, 7.5 inches at Isabella, and 8.5 inches at Poplar Lake. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1986 - Thunderstorms, which had inundated northern sections of Oklahoma with heavy rain, temporarily shifted southward producing 4 to 8 inches rains from Shawnee to Stilwell. Baseball size hail and 80 mph winds ripped through parts of southeast Oklahoma City, and thunderstorm winds caused more than half a million dollars damage at Shawnee. (Storm Data) 1987 - Afternoon thunderstorms in Michigan produced hail an inch in diameter at Pinckney, and wind gusts to 68 mph at Wyandotte. A thunderstorm in northern Indiana produced wet snow at South Bend. Seven cities in the northwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including readings of 98 degrees at Medford OR and 101 degrees at downtown Sacramento CA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed over Florida, and in the western U.S. The afternoon high of 94 degrees at Fort Myers FL was their tenth record high for the month. Highs of 98 degrees at Medford OR and 99 degrees at Fresno CA were records for the date, and the temperature at Borrego Springs CA soared to 108 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thirteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, as readings soared into the upper 80s and 90s from the Northern and Central High Plains Region to Minnesota. Bismarck ND reported a record high of 95 degrees, and the temperature reached 97 degrees at Broadus MT. Afternoon thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced wind gusts to 60 mph at Wendover UT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992: The past month was the coldest September ever recorded in interior Alaska. Fairbanks averaged a frigid 31.7° which was 13.2° below normal and the first below freezing September ever. Beginning on the 9th and on every day for the rest of the month, a new record low was set for either low minimums or low maximums, or both. On this date, the city plunged to 3° to set a new all-time record low for September. Snowfall for the month totaled 24.4 inches which was more than three times the previous record for September. 2001: Phoenix, AZ had an average temperature for the month of 92.2°, the city's hottest September day on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2003: Grand Rapids, Michigan: With a trace of snow hitting the ground, Grand Rapids records its earliest occurrence of measurable snowfall, beating the old mark by a week. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2004: Driven mostly by outbreaks from Hurricanes Frances and Ivan, 279 tornadoes were recorded for the month, by far the most tornadoes ever to occur in September in the U.S. West Palm Beach, FL had its wettest month on record with 29.40 inches of rain. Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne contributed most to the total. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2006: A rare F1 tornado struck North Berwick, ME, causing damage to roofs, windows. Damaged totaled $125,000. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) The first phase of the deluge focused on the Southeast, starting on September 26 (4.20 inches Macon, Georgia). September 27th Wilmington, North Carolina had 10.33 inches of rain. As the remains of Nicole tracked toward North Carolina on September 30, tropical downpours spread into the Northeast, On September 30, Baltimore, Maryland, reported its second wettest day on record, with 6.02 inches of rain. Two-day totals on October 1 reached 7.58 inches in Wilmington, Delaware, and exceeded five inches northward into western Massachusetts. Event totals exceeded 16 inches in eastern North Carolina, and over a foot of rain fell northward into the Chesapeake Bay region. Although widespread flooding occurred, drought conditions preceding the deluge mitigated the impacts. Today Portsmouth, Virginia storm spotter ID vpor002 measured 9.10 inches an all-time station daily rainfall record. [database to 1976] (Ref. Weatherwise U.S. Weather Highlights of 2010 page 9)

58 / 57 partly cloudy. Mid / upper 70s in the warmest spots and then clouds in the way of wisedpread 80s tomorrow, with Friday the warmest day mid, perhaps upper 80s. Lets see if we can remain dry this weekend as the latest forecasts go. 9/30 - 10/3 : Above - much above normal 10/4 - 10/9 : Overall near normal split warmer/cooler 10/10 - beyond : Ridging east - overall warmer

Starting to see a good smattering of fall color, especially up in Hazleton. But even in the lowlands it's starting. Looking forward to the nice temps this week.

If you want it, I was able to do some area averages in QGIS myself for 80 °N relative to ERA5 1991–2020 Normals May -0.2 °C June -0.4 °C July -0.2 °C August 0.9 °C Another piece of evidence—Arctic Sea ice extent is near the 2011–2020 average. It was not a crazy melt summer but it was not particularly cold, either.

I just got 3.7 ton of coal on Saturday @$220.00 a ton plus delivery from wifes brother in-law. Just have to clean furnace yet an replace stove pipe of my Harmon VF 3000 stoker boiler. Furnace is 37 years old, and still going strong. So I'm partially ready.

Yeah now brightening up.

The September departures across the region match the pattern of strong onshore flow with plenty of clouds and rain. The coolest sites are BDR and LGA with persistent ENW flow off the LI Sound keeping the highs cooler. NYC shows the wet foliage too close to the ASOS lowering the departures artificially. JFK and EWR further from the LI Sound are probably closer to what NYC would show if the site was properly maintained. MPO was the warmest part of the area away from the marine influence. It recorded its 4th warmest September average minimum temperature since the new site was established in 2000. Marches the theme of the warmer minimums leading the departures across the area. September 2026 BDR…-0.7 LGA….-0.6 NYC….-0.9 JFK…..+0.8 ISP…...+0.5 EWR….+0.5 NBW….+1.7 SMQ…..+1.5 MPO…..+1.8 Time Series Summary for POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, PA - Month of Sep Warmest average low temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2011 55.3 0 2 2018 54.8 0 3 2015 53.3 0 4 2026 52.8 1 5 2021 52.1 0

Sun breaking out a bit

I am looking forward to tracking the first frost/freeze!

Weekend looking much better now

Same

Cloudy again this morning. The forecast is for mostly sunny skies

The Euro issues an extended forecast every two months. These really long range forecasts aren’t always the most accurate. But Nino 1.2 has reached a new all-rime high of +5.345. This is even beyond what the Euro was forecasting. So the warm pool in the EPAC is stronger than anything that we have seen. This makes it plausible that this event could linger at least into next June. Even models like the CFS which had this peaking in +1.2 at only +4.5 are showing it going into at least next June in 1+2. The record breaking WWBs just keep pushing the warm pool further east than model forecasts. So such an extreme heat build up in the EPAC will take to wind down.