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Definitely bottom up.

it wasn't a canonical SSW behavior in the sense that there was no propagation for one. But, we had a near or at historic solar storm around then. I'm entertaining the possibility that the models were caught off guard by the solar flux arriving around the time they were modeling an intrusion event. The other aspect ...as I pointed this out at the time, it was not very clear in the modeling whether it was emerging above 50hPa level. It appeared to actually to be a punch up from the below from the topospheric bulge associated with the ( at the time) still being modeled N. Pacific height anomaly - they certainly did a good job with that ... just fantastically persistent feature. I think there was some interpretation misuse going on at the time et al.

For what it’s worth, Cosgrove and Bam are in the same boat. Cosgrove has been saying look out for mid-late Jan since early fall.

I didn't get past 2" at any point but it snowed for hours without the depth changing. I'll be curious to see some liquid equivalents around me. Mega foggy now.

I like Bam’s thinking the most. If you didn’t watch today’s LR video on YouTube, give it a watch. This is likely to be transient warmth followed by transient cold we’re seeing show up. @wncsnowis spot on with Bam’s comments. The pattern isn’t supportive for sustained cold + moisture (right now). I still think we need to move the Aleutian pig before that comes. Luckily, as we move past that week 2 period of Jan, we may finally get the help we need in that department with some tropical forcing.

It shows up on the snow depth map. Our snow depth (including sleet of course), is greater than some all snow locations thanks to the density of the sleet.

Taint snow, taint ice. I'm cool with it, but I also have the mind of a 16 year old so...

I know. But Cold Spring village (6 miles south) is even lower and there was at least 2" accumulation there. Fishkill is only 50ft higher than Beacon and maybe 4 miles northeast and there was a few inches there too. Snow disappeared across 1 mile of horizontal distance while driving at a constant elevation. I've never seen that in this particular area before. The snow level on the Beacon side of Mt. Beacon was about 400ft - 500ft. South and west of Beacon there was snow right to the river level. It was just weird.

Yeah we have a drive on Friday too

If this January is like last January, I'm going to have someone string me up by my ball bag and just leave me swaying in the wind....just end it.

Much of SENY just north of the city will have 20-30” of snow this December after Saturday AM if the gfs verifies. While SNE is around 1-5” excluding the mountains.

18z Euro AI gives Harford and Cecil County ties a ~40% chance of exceeding 3" of snow.

I hadn't realized that SSW in latter November was barely a reversal....Larry pointed it out to me in the ENSO thread. I think it's largely moot, anyway....I shouldn't have dismissed the eventual, lagged implications of that, which is why I missed this upcoming period of -NAO.

2 out of 3 clusters from the EPS 12z run would be a major arctic blast to ring in the new year... So 8-10 day range. Check out cluster 2 with the exotic Atlantic/Pacific ridge bridge too. Which is the cluster they have included the OP run with. Absolutely frigid air up in that source region.

Whenever I shake my head in disgust I just remind myself that it's a failure of imagination. Since 2017-18 winter has found the most creative and excruciating ways possible to pork SNE. A few days ago we were worried about a mild end to December, and now there's so much cold press a SNE rainer is now congrats DC to NYC. It's unreal.

Here are the WxBell maps at 342 from 12z. -75.4 is the coldest I could find. I have the 2m map, and for kicks and giggles, the real feel. I know there has been some discussion of the WxBell algorithm being colder than other models.

2” of sleet. Wild if true.

GFS is actually pretty cold at onset. Even in the metros it starts at 31, then drops to 29 before rising. Sleet should stick pretty well before the changeover verbatim.

Who do we need to sacrifice?

I think we go from torch to icy/ cold rain this storm with a more positive long range and call it a win...

Looks like we can’t ever get 2 good trends in a row

I know this isn't a normal start to winter up here but since 2018-19 I've finished with 30.3, 16.5, 44.5, 28.8, 13.7, 24.7, and 19.8 in CT. It's been hell. I know my wife hates the snow but there may be no turning back now. Our marriage may now hinge on her job working out.

WB 18Z GFS

Let's not forget 7 years of rain on new years