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Did they just ignore the entire 0z model suite?

Agree. Yea, I would rank this ahead of 2003-2004, but kind of similar tendencies. Yea, that December 5th event got wiped that year.

Ditto here, put a 0.0 in the CoCoRaHS for the first time in weeks.

34 and drops falling now, maybe squeeze out a few mangled flakes here, but I'd bet Norfolk center accumulates, in these marginal type deals I've driven up the hill and they have full coverage and I had nothing, that's crazy, it's literally a few miles as the crow flies but a few hundred extra feet elevation

still to early to tell if its real or not stand by for the 12Z runs - this doesn't look to encouraging although its out of range

The model consensus is still forecasting the MJO to be in or near phase 3 for Feb 22-23. Phase 3 has been the coldest MJO phase (based on Baltimore as a representative city) by a good margin when averaged out day by day during the 20 La Niña Februaries since 1975. It has averaged 4 F colder than the avg anomaly for all 566 Feb Niña days since 1975. Keep in mind that Feb Niña has averaged ~2 AN, which is intuitive.

Its interesting how many houses in this area are still 100% snowcovered with a decent amount... with little snow since the bigger event

Looking back to autumn, and I would never draw any long-term conclusions based on a single storm, but.... It's interesting how the modeled "nor'easter" of 10/12 turned into a non-event in these parts. Yes, the shore got hit and experienced heavy beach erosion. But that storm seems to have tipped winter's hand -- big, wrapped up storm modeled in the LR only to become less impactful as we move up to game time.

Still looks like we have a shot with this weekend. If it is an inverted trough, will be hard to pin down. fingers crossed!

Snow continues through the day Sunday

26 Minutes until the next biggest 12z GFS run of the season

https://digital.weather.gov/ hmmm...

I don't care who believes me frankly. But for this forum, it often works. And there's nothing anyone can say that changes my mind. Lol

This season had far better snowpack retention too because December 2003 turned torchy about 8-10 days after the big dog and everything got wiped out before Xmas. January 2004 had good "pack" retention, but calling it a pack is stretching it....it was a few inches of sand. Still think we can get another big storm. 2004 tried and sort of failed on 3/16....moderate storm but left some on the table.

I know models all shifted east overnight, which remains the fail mode, but we're not out of this by any means with lots of time left. We need to see improvements in the wave spacing between that system that exits CNE Friday/Saturday and our NS wave diving out of the Dakotas/MN. Pump the ridge more, inch it further west, and I think we can get that shortwave energy to round the trough enough for at least coastal areas. I'll be honest though, this setup now reminds me of last February's fail which ended up way suppressed and OTS. It has powder keg potential, but probably a lot lower probability from what we saw in previous days

Yeah, @weatherpruf has a point about this period of winter.

It's now that time of year where the pack decays quickly in the absence of replenishment.

And if it hits in the afternoon between 3-5 it’ll be the blue-PLATE special

This was always a noisy setup with a lots of various SW's and phasing involved. Yesterday the timing and amplitude suddenly shifted with one of the waves and it changed everything. The euro was the closest all along to what everything else shifted to, with a stronger wave in the lakes on Friday/Saturday that stalls instead of lifting out. The timing of the weak STJ wave also changed and its running way out ahead on Saturday now, this is also influenced by the pinwheel in the lakes that wasn't there or nearly as strong on guidance until last night. But guidance is also trending towards a stronger inverted trough feature, also related to what's going on over the top of us. But those are really hard to pin down. With the trough hanging around and the upper low cutting off near us it wouldn't take much for this to come back if guidance identifies another SW to amplify. Most guidance just changed its mind with the wave that is now some weak POS on Saturday...it's not crazy if they find another little vort and say...ok lets amp this one up instead...the trough is there...the mid and upper level energy is there...it just needs something to come along at the right time to amplify at the surface. I want to see what happens today on guidance.

It was touched on but this was by far the best EPS run for this threat. I'd buy the median right now. Likelihood of 3"+ also not too shabby

One encouraging sign from the 6z euro the energy on Saturday over New England exited faster. Probably helped lead to the system coming closer to the coast compared to 0z.

If I had to choose a winter this reminded me of it would be 2003-2004....impressive cold, but not really one I would care to relive again because there was only one good storm. ...though I got porked in the biggie that season, so this year would rank ahead of it.

What a weird winter. An almost continental SWFE produces a huge Snow event for us as warmer air overrides below zero temps and single digits. Much of the rest of the seasons snow delivered on southerly winds, Which I will never forget Charley Bagley saying how hard it was for it to snow on southerly winds. It would follow the seasonal tenor to miss Monday. Too bad for pack enthusiasts bc I think region wide almost everyone would have a good chance of a huge pack if Monday planned out close enough to crush region wide. That's the last shot this season.