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Usually the Tuesday before Labor Day. So last yr 8/26. We also don't do the week off in Feb.

Correct

Absolutely, Don. It still would have been another historic heatwave even without AGW but not near as historic as it got due to the added effects from AGW. A larger portion of this extreme heat was very likely due to the pattern, itself, as opposed to AGW, itself. But AGW means a higher baseline as your quote said. The global baseline average has warmed ~2.5F since the late 1800s and not far from that even since just the mid-20th century if I’m not mistaken with the Arctic significantly higher and the tropics lower. How much do you figure the W Europe climate baseline has warmed?

and it's so small you're in Bridgeport or Stamford before you need to stop

Hey now, don't act like you don't know the type of posts I make.

Would you bet against it becoming established??

some may have a very dry week, too. Stein a possibility

When do you start

Lol... I love it John... Spot on!

The last time we hit 100 in this area was 38 years ago on August 18, 1988. I recorded 102 on that day as I was managing a VDOT paving crew. Try that when the pavement is close to 200 out of the plant.. It will melt the soles on your shoes.

I absolutely believe that we break the 1982-83 all time RONI record and also the traditional ONI record. This thing is a monster. I fully expect the new model runs for July to get stronger with the peak

In fact, El Nino summers tend to be cooler ... ? in 2023, some form of Nino was forecast to onset that summer, the whole planet jumped a half click C ( as poorly recognized geological event) before said El Nino arrived. Yet to this day, I still hear the blame. Wrong epistemic/chronological direction. I think though that people toss around conjecture as though it were more substantive than it is. Some are doing it because that's just how people are in groups. Others because they're divisive. Welcome to the human species. LOL

I think we got one two years ago during the evening in February and it was the most impressive thunderstorm (severe warned too) than in many years here. And of course that summer was very quiet

Agree 100% about the volatility of Nino 1+2, but I’m talking about Nino 3.4, for which the latest CFS has a record obliterating high in Nov followed by a record rate of cooling afterward. The CFS’ volatility is not unlike how 1+2 can often be! But it is out on its own with that rapid a cooling of 3.4. And I agree about the atmospheric lag, regardless.

He's convinced now - forecasting 100 on Thursday and 103 on Friday...

Miniature landphoon? Pretty wild whatever it is.

It's more of the fact that everything is being blamed on something which has not yet become established and its not like these episodes of heat and large ridges are solely a response to EL Nino.

Dang it man just why? Lololol

That's late. We ended around 6/10

We get them in February now

Mm folks in here are getting annoyed by rhetoric. I say tough cookies. One cannot be a verbal fascist. People are going to be artful with their speech when they are attempting ( if not necessarily, just because they are human beings ) to emphasize the significance of whatever it is they're trying to convey. I also get the hunch that some of these same individuals would incline toward less hurt feelings on Jan 20 whenever the models are sending 30" snow total clown maps rollin' up the eastern seaboard. Noted for future analysis. Beside, by geometric comparison, damnable descriptions like heat dome is what that is. It's a ridge that is made larger by non-Markovian feedback of thermal aggregation. SO it is in fact an exceptionally good and on-point metaphor. That said, though I do not read this person's mind, if by "super-charged" he means synergistic resonance?, he's spot on. Unfortunately for the word Karens, it fits the grammatically definition of what supercharged fucking means. It means taking a result, and adding to it. Which is what a synergistic heat waves inherently do.

Region 1.2 is pretty volatile given it's so small, so it may be helpful to consider region 3.

I agree 100% on this...but it's also important to remember that we DID get a crippling KU in January 2016 and we DID get a record breaking arctic outbreak in February. I am suggesting that same volatility here due to the basin-wide nature, not because El NINO is "dying", which is of course silly given the atmospheric lag.

The updated June monthly record for the UK during the most recent climate change-enhanced heatwave is 37.7C (99.9F). Key contextual point from World Weather Attribution: This June 2026 heatwave occurred under a circulation pattern broadly similar to historical analogues – Southerly Flow. However, a similar circulation pattern now produces significantly hotter temperatures than it did in the mid-20th century because the climate baseline has warmed...

I agree with you on a lot of this, especially the late winter hype and the fact that the CFS is out on its own with this record rate of cooling. However, at the same time, I’ll say these things: -It’s fair to post this aspect of the CFS as you did the first CFS post of the morning. Not only a record peak, but also a record cool off afterward (V shape). -This cooling of 1.3 from Nov to Jan would be a new record cooling as the current record per ERSST monthlies is the 1.0 cooling from Nov to Jan of 2002-3 -Sometimes they’ve actually strengthened from Nov to Jan