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Looking at radar looks like storms move in around 5pm

There are zero clouds here and yet we're under a severe thunderstorm warning until 4 pm lol

and I'm sure lapse rates aren't a huge deal TBH, 6C or 6.5C/km very doable 90/70ish. But you'd need slightly more dynamics, forcing, or shear. probably two of those three, to offset not having that bouyancy. Not great timing at all.

But it wasn't in 1966 either and that was our driest year on record, why was NYC cooler? I just think Queens and Nassau (both north and south shore) are hotter than Manhattan on an offshore wind because a westerly wind comes off Hudson River

Headed toward DC metro within the hour

I don't think that first line will expand north quickly enough for the Skook. I'm going to have to rely on, hopefully, some subsequent line(s) later.

This is beginning to look like serious big league heat now. Maybe on one hand I can count days that ever got as hot as Monday/Tuesday are now forecasted to be.

Headed my way

It doesn't look as nice if it's cloudy

Radar definitely looks gnarly...I was able to mow this morning so i'm ready for some more rain

vere Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 322 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 VAC047-059-061-107-153-179-683-685-192000- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-250619T2000Z/ Loudoun VA-Stafford VA-Fairfax VA-Fauquier VA-Culpeper VA- City of Manassas Park VA-Prince William VA-City of Manassas VA- 322 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOUDOUN...NORTHWESTERN STAFFORD...WESTERN FAIRFAX... EASTERN FAUQUIER...CENTRAL CULPEPER...AND PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES... THE CITY OF MANASSAS PARK AND THE CITY OF MANASSAS... At 321 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bealeton, or 8 miles southwest of Warrenton, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Emergency management reports a history of downed trees with this line of storms. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Centreville, Dale City, South Riding, Broadlands, Brambleton, Warrenton, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Linton Hall, Sterling, Chantilly, Montclair, Bull Run, Triangle, Dumfries, Bealeton, Haymarket, Arcola, The Plains, and Manassas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3840 7801 3859 7782 3889 7786 3903 7743 3853 7731 TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 259DEG 40KT 3862 7789 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

Yeah we see stuff pop more easily but the trade off is weaker activity. This is why pre-frontal troughs hurt us more often than not...once we get the convective temp reached we start popping too early. This is one reason why those EMLs are so important. they keep a lid on things until the strongest forcing can arrive

Very, Especially as you get here in the coastal plain and to the coast.

Skies are super dark to my west. May get clipped by one storm as it heads into PA. Larger storm behind it coming into Westminster now that should hit

Questionable

Why? Unless you sit in the sun who cares?

That cone is too far south. Weird

Woops, I think I forgot to empty my gauge from yesterday, so two day total is 2".

12z ICON now has cooler coasts and roasts the interior when previous runs roasted the coast as well.

Yeah, agree about those lapse rates; big-time bummer there and not sure NWS BOS or ALB discussed it at all. I was really expecting to see those dark greens? at least, 6.5 C/km or higher. Should have checked upstream soundings like you did OTOH stuff will pop more easily, less lid? I suppose. At least there's weaker stuff :/

are we already trying to skip this winter and wait for the 26-27 nino?

Severe thunderstorm warning for the immediate NYC metro.

Eh, Watch hoisted.

92 imby...incredibly my first 90 of the year! Question...I'm seeing the possibility of clouds Sunday...which will be the better beach day Saturday or Sunday. I prefer going Sunday but I despise sitting on a mainly cloudy beach even if its warm.

I'm not cherrypicking anything. Just looking to learn more about the DTW urban heat island. Those temperature variances strike me as primarily a function of elevation and latitude. Urban heat island may add a small component. White Lake is several hundred feet higher in elevation and, as you said, 40 miles northwest. FNT and MBS are way to the north, and FNT is also a few hundred feet higher in elevation. Even Ann Arbor gains elevation, although it might be small if along Allen Creek. Of course, if the station is near the creek, it would likely be in a particularly cool microclimate for radiational cooling conditions.