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Now, it does actually appear that the MJO is looking to get active once again. Initiating in the west Pacific as per the possibility mentioned by the CPC. This is a pretty good look at a phase 6 then 7 firing off on the EPS. GEFS doesn't disagree either. We may have another attempt at a phase 8 pass on our hands beyond this. Perhaps a better chance this time with the warm pool a bit further east this time. To me, the key to pulling that off successfully is to see the strong subsidence push fully into 120E. Along with the propagation of convection into the western hemisphere. Which guidance is hinting at may actually happen towards the end of these runs lately. That's promising IMHO. That did not occur last time.

http://www.ocean.iap.ac.cn/pages/dataService/dataService.html?languageType=en&navAnchor=dataService

Naggy Bay strikes again. It loves to kill severe weather as well.

how’s it looking after MLK day…that was the real time that we were eyeing..as Will said, anything before would be a big bonus.

It could be the first snow gun mounted to the roof of a NYC police cruiser

Time to lock this one up, nothing to change here.

Well he's not wrong it is a pack melting 38-48 degrees the next 5-6 days for all of SNE .. already lost 75% of my solid 6" pack.. but if we can cash in on that epic look starting next Thursday who cares, it's a welcome melt off and clean up..

My guess is that we will need to be patient for our next widespread 4”+ snowfall. The long range guidance tries to shift the forcing east of the Dateline later this month. Not sure if the STJ will be able to increase enough for a coastal or it’s another Northern Stream clipper pattern like we had back in December.

Comparing 5H anomalies 6z vs 0z, 0z looks better organized with the southern vort, but 6z has energy dropping south from the Great Lakes that wasn't there at 0z. That's a wild card.

Yep. Keyword. Again.

Yup..the tenor.

So much for jogging in shorts Been the trend all season to lean cold

Nah mild all week

Great storm, but I don't buy some of those accumulations for a second. We had 31 in Simsbury, and 34 in East Windsor where I was living at the time. I've heard others say the same.

That looks good!

“pushback game” Never want to play those in January

An amazing storm. It was a bear to plow my residential driveways, but I didn't care. Similar accumulation to '78 in my area, but unfortunately it didn't shut the state down for a week

0z Euro with a nice one two punch.

Lol, My old handbook says to take the GFS for the first chance & the 0z Euro for the one a few days later.

Lol, My old handbook says to take the GFS for the first chance & the 0z Euro for the one a few days later.

Anyone want to guess what this diving sw in Wisconsin could do? Also don’t see much of a kicker now

Changes to make the 15th better going to change what happens after so let’s worry about the 15th first.

Was talking about the huge overrunning event

lot of members just outside the BM, if we can trend those NW we can all have some fun

6z GFS is the Best run yet with more room for upside with a more tucked track. Here’s the 6z GFS snow by the 16th.