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1.28 two day storm total imby

41.7 so close yet so far

The entire Northeast finished a 21st coldest for January 2022. It was the last time we had KU snowstorms from ACY into New England. December 26th through January 8th, 2018 was our last top 10 coldest 2 week period in NYC. It also coincided with the record 950mb benchmark blizzard. But the pattern flipped warm pretty fast in January. So the 2nd coldest December 26 to January 8 period on record couldn’t last long enough for January 2018 to finish in the top 10 for cold.

My wife may feel some type of way about that

I don’t have a problem with the ranges. Especially since it’s a more public/layperson communication. Hard to believe the season is already upon us.

Ive given up on summer ever arriving haha. Lets just get to fall

Jack will be probably somewhere in SE MA near CF. They will get smoked and are getting smoked.

Heavy heavy Bunny Ranch?

95° and sunny here in Vegas

See I agree but I dont think the board would be happy with me cheering for 50s and rain in January. You might even tell me to knock it off haha

Thanks! So it has gotten cold a few times, just not top 10, but top 30 is still in the top 15% or so. I know warmth has had many months, but was just wondering as the post makes it sound like it never has gotten cold the past decade.

The key will be how much rain we get in early June. We probably make it back into the 80s between June 1st -10th. But we would probably need to dry out with more sun in order for the warm spots to get their first 90° of the season by June 15th. We are already running late on our first 90° day. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 04-07 (2010) 08-08 (2011) 69 Mean 05-18 09-09 113 Maximum 06-17 (2014) 10-02 (2019) 170 2024 05-02 (2024) 90 08-28 (2024) 95 117 2023 04-13 (2023) 92 09-08 (2023) 92 147 2022 05-21 (2022) 95 09-04 (2022) 93 105 2021 05-19 (2021) 91 09-15 (2021) 91 118 2020 06-06 (2020) 91 08-27 (2020) 93 81 2019 05-26 (2019) 90 10-02 (2019) 96 128 2018 05-02 (2018) 90 09-06 (2018) 98 126 2017 05-17 (2017) 92 09-25 (2017) 90 130 2016 05-25 (2016) 91 09-23 (2016) 90 120 2015 05-25 (2015) 90 09-09 (2015) 91 106 2014 06-17 (2014) 91 09-06 (2014) 95 80 2013 05-30 (2013) 93 09-11 (2013) 96 103 2012 05-28 (2012) 91 09-07 (2012) 90 101 2011 05-30 (2011) 92 08-08 (2011) 93 69 2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-25 (2010) 90 170

I think Stonington, Pawcatuck, Westerly area is going to be the jackpot. Just a firehose down there.

11-20 November 2019 (T15 coldest with 3 other years) 21-30 April 2018 (29th coldest) November 2018 (25th coldest famous for the mid-month snow event) June 2023 just missed out at T31 coldest

50/41°F, Sun trying to make a rare appearance before the rain arrives.

Backlash showers! Yay!

Rain picked up a lot here now from the steady mist that was falling all morning. It was a joke. But, June is met summer, so things getting warm makes sense.

Interesting ... 2012 was one of if not the warmest total spring to summer transition years on record - least I thought it was...

I don't believe the recent winter hemisphere's would physically allow that to happen. This is happening now because the flow is slower ...everywhere. The entire manifold of the hemisphere still has energetics, and because the flow foot is lower, this allows for curvatures at smaller radii It's complex but we have to understand atmospheric motion in x, y and z coordinate system. The z is the omega term ( upward vs downward vertical motion )... x and y is the direction, w-e-n-s. When there is only so much uvm velocity available to rotating fields... this limits the amount of mass that can move up for inward moving air. Tornadoes, for example, rotate so fast because they have shit ton of vertical acceleration moving upwards - stretching the vortex in the vertical effectively speeds it up. Think figure-skater pulling their arms in, and the spin faster. Such that cyclonic motion has a relatively constant mass moving in the vertical. When x - y gradient is large --> faster flow of wind, but this exceeds the restoring mass moving upward; it can't flow in tighter curved space, because the mass moving in can't rise any faster. So instead of conserving the energy in the smaller scales, it ends up lengthening the long wave lengths with lots of jet velocity, and less small space curvatures - note, I did not say, "no" smaller space curvatures. We're dealing in offsets here... In recent years the gradient between ~30 N and 60 N has been extreme. This has power very strong westerlies through the deep tropospheric means. This has meant faster moving events. More sheared events. Event closed lows behavior more like "quasi" closed lows, because they move right along like rolling balls... These are just notable behaviors I'm listing...

What about top 11-30? Has the NE had any of those since 2015?

Gun to head I’ll say yes. Even if it’s 35-36° paws. I bet you were colder than that in 2012 too because of your station siting.

Looks like you might be the Jack spot

looks like radar is starting to fill in again as the ULL approaches

It's really hard to take (publicly accessible) LLM "science" seriously. Sure, there might be some specialized LLMs that the general public can't access that might be trustworthy. But Grok? No.