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I still like my one-and-done map from the weekend.

Fun stat for mby - every day this month has had a low below 32°. Last December had 11 lows above freezing. Obviously the streak will end in a few days but pretty interesting.

Yeah if I was making a snowfall forecast now I would go in the 1-3" range for a large area...maybe something along the lines of 3-4" for the Berks and maybe far northwest CT.

They aren't, their evolution is entirely realistic. This one is most likely going to be more of a nowcast May put together a forecast later this afternoon or early this evening.

The EPO/PNA still suck in the long range, so it won't be going January 94/85 February 2015 anytime soon but the location of the PV being on this side of the pole will mean it can easily get cold enough for snow and the -PNA means we are not in a bone dry pattern. The AO/NAO have the look of not wanting to consistently stay strongly - or + so far for more than 7-10 days and often times if thats your trend through 12/31 it stays that way all winter so those 2 may largely be non major factors. The PNA/WPO/EPO at some stage likely go through a major reversal of where they've been in the next 20-30 days and that probably decides what the 1/15-3/10 period is

I got nothing imby for that event. Thanks for ruining my day. Merry Christmas nonetheless!

Euro isn't that far off from the NAM solutions either...Euro is slightly juicier but not by a lot. I'd still be going 1-3" for most of SNE. I'd need more proof this system has the juice before putting a 2" floor on the forecast.

It will be interesting to see how well the Qubitcast does. https://www.artemis.bm/news/planette-develops-qubitcast-to-detect-severe-weather-events-up-to-six-months-in-advance/

Curious as to what your other analogs are for this setup—maybe it could provide more insight into possible outcomes.

I get what you are saying but models have no impact on each other. The GFS is not "getting other ops to move towards it" - they don't talk and aren't interconnected. The only "trend" would be from id they are all in time figuring out the solution.

But the NAM’s are far fetched. Are you calling for a coating again?

Low of 18, great radiational cooling that overperformed.

Seems like the GFS is at least a bit more impressive with the WAA. Not sure what to make out of the NAMs but I am a little concerned with them because the solutions aren't farfetched.

Lol. Stranger things have happened but I'd put the odds on that as near zero. HP under the block is way to weak to bully anything that far. You guys are in the game for now. Jan 3 2022 redux. That analog has been top 5 for 3+ days. Right now it's top 3. It won't come easy but if I still lived in Rockville I'd be pretty interested rn

This still looks more like a late blooming miller B to me. Two maxes. One in far western sections before the transfer and the second in mid coast- down east Maine, + (maybe the cape). There will be a min in between that transfer as clipper fizzles. Think less norlun, more miller B ish type evolution.

Oh, if no one knew there were some weather models added/ upgraded December 17th. AIGFS, AIGEFS and HGEFS ImplementationImplementation of the initial versions (v1.0) of the AIGFS, AIGEFS and HGEFS https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-89_AIGFS_AIGEFS_and_HGEFS.pdf

The December 28 system has trended from the Canadian maritimes to the mid Atlantic due to blocking on the GFS over the last 4 runs. Definitely some volatility with unresolved strength of blocking over eastern Canada

I'll tell you what, I may have missed the mark on my first two-week KU window...I went with a slight chance Dec 1-15 out deference to 1981, but if I were to do it right now, I would tab about Jan 8-22, or 10-24th....others have mentioned this time frame, and I could see a phase-changer to herald in my +TNH regime. BAM tossed out Dec 30,2000 and Jan 7, 1996 (displaced north and probably not as excessive) as potential analogs and they were both seasons were in my package (the former is the main analog).

interesting NAMs....contrats Jeff.

Yeah and GFS has been pretty juicy as well.

Still within the realm of possibility if the Euro has the right idea.

How's that high in the 50's you bet on for Christmas Day looking? LOL!!

MBY could be AN for December snowfall by Monday... that would be nice 10" so far... probably a couple more tomorrow. then we see what happens

didn't jan 3 2022 suddenly appear out of nowhere because of a block?

If you want something more optimistic. 6z HRDPS would probably be best case outcome. 3-5 for almost all of SNe