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I’m not confident this doesn’t slip east - spider senses are acting up, been here before

Toms River is consistently the bullseye on all models.

Down to 34 at home in union bridge 39 here in asbury park 5 degrees colder down at home than here currently

I'd be in therapy for years.

Would you consider drowning in rain on 3/14/17 when 12”+ was predicted/blizzard warning as missing it? There will be others. Uuuuuugghh

found it funny abc27 earlier today had the graph for wsw for 6-10 and they were calling for 1-3 its like the fuck?

I think all of us in Baltimore would not be surprised to see this kind of fuckery unfold.

That's what I mean. These snow totals in VA into South Jersey seem over the top. Even north of there.

Agreed 1,000%. Let’s see what the meso models show now.

This site also has the updated MPAS version of the RRFS they are working on, and a nicer view of the HREF's (attached). It's a cool site.

2/22 00z GGEM Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24 10:1 Snow

Me too. And I missed the one in 2010 that destroyed DC.

Almost as worse as the weather channel

Exactly what I was thinking...

All joking aside, I'm just glad to see an expanded area of 6"+ through the region. At least, this looks larger than the 18Z cycle I think (haven't gone back to look at the other thread for the 18Z PBP stuff). The global models are not going to pick up on the fine-scale subtleties like banding and such, but this at least looks like a nice broad-brush.

GFS is down to .5-.75" of QPF for a lot of us. Between 2-3" near Philly. Again, the gradient is tightening/bleeding east.

Cmc holds serve, shows a strong deformation signature

Interesting is not the word I would use.

Must have SREF as part of their calculations

Insanity… when was the last 2” qpf storm in Philly? Has to be since the summer. Even 1” qpf has been hard to come by of late. That fact makes me nervous.

I missed January 2016...I was here at home.

My forecast from CTP still is 2-5”. No idea about the warning text being off.

Looks a bit better again for the NW suburbs? Anyway just getting ready for a very fun and hopefully memorable storm.