Jump to content

All Activity

This stream auto-updates

  1. Past hour
  2. 00z ai and 6z ai to a degree as well. Starting to see fantasy events being spit out in LR OP models. The Jan 6-10 frame has me excited personally .
  3. How does a storm like that miss us lol
  4. If this isn't a dry slot, I don't know what is.
  5. Crap is like cement. A plastic shovel doesn't stand a chance trying to clean up this crap.
  6. An inch maybe slightly more here. Small refresher to be part of the ice base of the pack after Monday
  7. 10.45" snow thru Dec 27. I've always considered December snow as 'bonus' snow as it is still outside of our prime climo period. Suffice it to say, we are ahead of schedule wrt our seasonal snowfall here in Ivyland, PA. We haven't been in this situation in a long long time.
  8. Winter Storm Warnings are canceled for the immediate Metro area.
  9. This particular discussion is only about Manhattan, specifically Central Park (despite its notorious poor snow depth reportings). My interpretation is the storm was a bust. Some could argue, in a broad sense, that the storm was not a bust. Strangely, all models came on board about 5 days ago that this would be an all snow event. After 2 days in a row reaching the 40s (or more), the temperature miraculously cooled down just before the clipper like system was to arrive (cold air being one of the ingredients for snow). The only thing peculiar was that the main dynamics of the storm would be north and east of Manhattan. Historically, this is not a good recipe for an all snow event. However, I was optimistic for a good snowfall, based on the model consensus. EVERYBODY, or so it seemed, was saying that Central Park was going to receive a significant snowfall. I had not seen one of the models 00z run on 12/26/2025, which depicted a lighter amount. Instead, I was noticing throughout the day on Friday, that after the overcast became solid, had begun thinning, and pretty much cleared at times, in advance of the storm. Based on experience, 98 times out of 100, if the overcast breaks or the sun becomes visible hours before the storm, it will be a bust. With the 2 out of the last 100 times occuring within the last 10 years. You can use that information for now casting. For now casting, you can pretty much ignore the models and start going on instinct and various real time indicators on what is actually occurring. This system will be discussed and argued, many arguing over semantics or defintion. Some have already said that this system "dry slotted". I will disagree. To me, a dry slot occurs when a storm occludes, becomes intense and mature, and forms the standard comma shape. The intensity of the storm draws in dry air from hundreds of miles away. This was not the case. One of the key ingredients for snow, cold air" was advecting into the system ahead of the storm. Cold air, as we know, is drier. The dynamics of the system was not as intense in this area. Again, the main dynamics were to remain north and east of Manhattan. Some warned of a "warm nose" that would cut down on snow totals. Though not wrong, if the dyamics were as the models depicted, the warm nose most likely would not have changed the snow to sleet, or rain. The fact is, the precipitation stopped at times after an intial light covering of snow. With very little lift, virtually no dynamic atmospheric cooling. Present HRRR suggests some "back building" of snow into the area, at least through mid morning. This could bring Central Park nearer to the lower end of the 4" to 8" range, which some will say that the forecasts were accurate. I disagree. The dynamics of the storm that were forecast simply missed Manhattan.
  10. Guessing about 3" of pure fluff after taking the pup out for a walk. Still a few flakes in the air, 17.6*.
  11. Over 8" and still snowing lightly. I'll get out and measure in a few minutes, there's coffee to be finished before shoveling.
  12. We hope. Let's get this rainer out of the way first.
  13. Had to poke my thumb through the ice to get to the sidewalk for a measurement with my tape measure. Unofficially, as best as I could tell, I had about 0.75" of sleet and ice.
  14. Public Information Statements: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=okx&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=okx&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=okx&issuedby=ALY&product=PNS CoCoRaHS & CoCoRaHS daily maps: https://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/ListDailyPrecipReports.aspx https://maps.cocorahs.org/ xmACIS2 (COOP, CoCoRaHS, Climo Sites) Updates around 1130AM: https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ NWS 72-Hour Interactive Reports Map & Analysis Map: https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html https://www.weather.gov/crh/snowfall
  15. Does BOX still have the text report of snow totals? I can find the map version--the table was a lot easier for my brain.
  16. Hey everyone let me know your final reports for anywhere in NY LHV into the city and LI and central and NNJ, Ocean and north. I went through the last 2 pages but it seems most aren't final yet. Should end up near 8" here.
  17. Just can't do both my FB group and here. Merry Christmas. It's a good snow sleet combo here in SC.
  18. Wantage NJ. 2.5" snowing very lightly.
  1. Load more activity
×
×
  • Create New...