All Activity

Peoria to Coal City strike zone. Seen this game before...

the next D2 outlook from SPC will be out in about 45 minutes. Since the previous discussion had mentioned upgrade possibilities existed (but not at the time for our zones), wondering if they will get any more aggressive with their probabilities.

Last year I fired up the annual thread on March 8. After a continuous period of snow cover for the last seven weeks and two days, my CT pack finally gave up the ghost yesterday on our first 70 degree day since October 19. With respect to those still tracking wintry chances (myself included), it's time to fire up the thread. This was my first year since returning to CT in 2018 with the following: 1) A normal snowfall winter 2) Over 50" of snowfall 3) Several below zero low days 4) DJF all below normal avg temperature 5) Maximum snow depth over 12" for an extended period 6) Maximum snow depth of over 18" 7) No major cutters in DJF 8) NYD snow 9) Two 12"+ Events 10) An entire winter month with snow cover I also spent most of my first winter up at my new place in Saranac Lake. We're in striking distance of 150" on the season there, with continuous snow cover since November 27 and measurable snow falling on Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, New Year's Eve, and New Year's Day. Maximum low of -20.2 and nearly 36 hours of below zero temperatures during a cold blast. Don't need to do much thinking about this winter. In CT it is an A. The combination of cold, snow, high end events, and snow cover is some of the best I've seen, even going back to my childhood in CT. Some potential left on the table, but we didn't get porked too badly. In SLK I mean my God. If we can do better than 2025-26...A+ The Big Dogs CT SLK

Flow is still speed oriented. I mean, we clear the deck of that cold from late Thursday, and Friday evening there's already a burst of WAA snow across NNE ...possibly as far S as CNE if you believe the GFS. The CMC has the clipper too - neither is ultimately impressive ... so to stable reactions. But just in principle, we can hardly put our coffee cups down and everything's rollin' out

you got that right! headed out there on the 18th, fully moving back next january:)

And not sure about anybody else but the potholes around here are absolutely horrendous.

75 and sunny - perfect day

@tunafish approves of this reference. Soak it in because we’re not gonna see this again for weeks. I need to get out of work early and go in the woods.

bump x2.

GFS looks out to lunch.

Geez-74 now. Shorts weather. Amazingly the little bit of snow is left in the backyard under tree shadows.

It's funny you say this. I was just thinking that this would be a fantastic "spring skiing" pattern. I don't ski - which is a shame, because I was good at it the few times I did go when I was teenager. anyway, I recall out in I think Aspen, seeing tee-shirters on snow boards with sun tan lotion on their noses sticking out under dark goggles.

Torch. Also, get bay breeze'd Harford Co. Edit: I just saw that Annapolis Naval Academy is reading 50 degrees

Won't work...I still need the shift to winter around Thanksgiving.

beautiful day here in the city, gotta be 74 at the park

Friday is pretty cool to monitor in the sense that it is the persistence scenario but with the jet a few hundred miles further north due to the seasonal tide, it’s not even close to a wintry event for most.

Thanks, Chuck. That appeared to be a good call to me, too. But so far, crude is staying down with it ~$84. Are you surprised? Of course, it can turn on a dime at just about any point. NG is also down.

GFS for Friday continues to be way too cold vs everything including the GEFS. I’m expecting a decent day with warm sector out ahead. Widespread, highs near 50.

PA tornado outbreak seems possible to somewhat probable tomorrow. More than that, straight lines winds of 70 mph seems highly likely for some. Hail too

Having this degree of warmth over deep snow pack kind of reminds me of when I went to visit MT. Raineer a couple of times during the summer out west....

i like the moderate risk, i like a 10/15% tor. my only thought would have been to increase hail probs as well. not often i give the spc an atta boy, but here you go.

I'm not really seeing a whole lot to be excited about in terms of winter storm threats or potential for the second half of the month. This doesn't apply to northern New England or elevations though...they will always find a way to sneak in some accumulating snow well into April. But when it comes to the GFS at least, I'd be very skeptical about it being way too aggressive with the EC troughing and colder look. Yes, that look or "tenor" has been a theme during the winter but we're moving into a new regime now with the hemisphere and wavelengths transitioning to the warmer season and this is when the GFS bias for extended range trough/cold may be overestimated. Yes other guidance hints at this but not to the degree of the GFS and something more along the lines of transient. Still plenty of cold to our north which keeps us in the game but nothing to me looks overly excited...especially since antecedent airmasses are going to suck.