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Decided to walk down to the creek and take some pictures while there still ice on the creek. That was the easy part. What wasn't easy was walking through that snowpack. Cardio workout for sure was not anticipated. I wonder just how thick the ice is? Questions remain. How long will the ice stay with warmer temperatures forecast? Will the ice slowly melt away? Will we get more snow adding to more water content to the snowpack? Or will we get a big sudden thaw with a huge rain storm? And then will we get the ice breaking up and producing ice jams and flooding? These questions will be answered in the coming weeks.

Sitting at -11.6 degrees for the month so far, and still a glaciated whiteness on the ground. Zero complaints for the month.

February 10 1965: A snowstorm dumps 15 inches of snow at Duluth over two days. 1861: An ice storm impacts Elk River. Coatings of 1/2 inch of ice are reported. The ice broke off many large branches and saplings were bent to the ground. 1857: Extreme cold at Fort Ripley. E.J. Baily, Assistant Surgeon notes: 'Spirit thermometer -50 at 6am. Mercury frozen in charcoal cup. Spirit thermometer at Little Falls 16 miles from the fort -56 at 6am. The lowest degree of cold on record in the territory'. For Tuesday, February 10, 2026 1899 - The temperature at Monterey plunged to 29 degrees below zero, establishing record for the state of Virginia. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1921 - Gardner, Georgia, was devastated by a massive, estimated F4 tornado that caused an entire small town section to disappear. The tornado killed an estimated 31 people and injured 100. 1959 - St. Louis, Missouri, was hit by a massive F4 tornado that killed 21 and injured 345. Over 2000 buildings were damaged or destroyed, including the St. Louis Arena. 1973 - A major snowstorm struck the southeastern U.S. It produced as much as 18 inches in Georgia, and up to two feet of snow in South Carolina. (David Ludlum) 1978 - As much as eight inches of rain drenched southern California resulting in widespread flooding and mudslides. The heavy rainfall produced a wall of water which ripped through the mountain resort community of Hidden Springs drowning at least thirteen persons. The storm was one of the most destructive of record causing fifty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1981 - A morning tornado at Bay Minette, AL, struck the local middle school severely damaging the gymnasium. 62 people were injured, 44 of whom were students. 1982 - Bismarck, ND, experienced its 45th consecutive day of subzero temperature readings which tied the previous record long string of subzero daily lows ending on the same date in 1937. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A storm in the northeastern U.S. produced heavy snow in southeastern Maine. Grand Falls and Woodland received 15 inches, mainly during the early morning hours, while most of the rest of the state did not even see a flake of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Bitter cold arctic air gripped the north central U.S. International Falls MN was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 35 degrees below zero. Record warm readings were reported in southern California, with highs of 78 at San Francisco and 88 at Los Angeles. San Juan Capistrano CA was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 92 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - For the first time all month winter relaxed its grip on the nation. The temperature at Brownsville TX warmed above 60 degrees for the first time in six days, ending their second longest such cold spell of record. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front continued to produce severe weather across the southeastern U.S. through the morning hours and into the late afternoon. There were a total of twenty-nine tornadoes in twenty-nine hours, and 245 reports of large hail or damaging winds. Pre-dawn thunderstorms produced high winds which injured at least seventy persons in Alabama and Georgia, and caused more than twelve million dollars property damage. A tornado at Austell GA prior to daybreak injured two persons and caused two million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2010 - A second major snowstorm, dubbed Snoverkill and Snowmaggedon 2.0, further buries the Nation's Capital with 10.8 inches of new snow. Schools, businesses and even parts of the Federal government are shut down by blizzard conditions. The city now has a deeper snowpack, 28 inches, than the 20 inches in Anchorage, AK, or 27 inches in Marquette, MI. 2011 - The coldest day in Oklahoma history sees the temperature plunge to -31&deg;F at Nowata, OK. A US National Weather Service station at Bartlesville recorded a reading of -28&deg;F. Both locations break the previous low temperature mark of -27&deg;F set in 1905 and tied in 1930. <a href="http://islandnet.com/~see/weather/almanac/diaryfeb.htm">The Weather Doctor</a> 2017 - Denver saw their all-time warmest temperature in February with a reading of 79 degrees.

Under the radar aspect about that warm up in January. I argue it was not "thermodynamic" in character - in other words, dry air warm up. It's not the same beast as other. The measly 3" of white stone snow pack was incredibly resistant. We really only went down to bare ground in this part of the interior ... not until the last day or two of that span. Otherwise, a lot of 46 F highs over that apparently impervious to melt. It matters meteorologically because warmth in the atmosphere is both kinetic and also water vapor. But a dryer air mass will withstand just temperature more so than when it is accompanied by a DP that is also above freezing.

We bang gfs

If you follow me enough, you know I like to include USCRN data as well. We built a parallel climate network with pristinely-sited, rural weather stations, including features such as multiple redundant temperature sensors, but it's rarely discussed. For context, this was largely constructed based on criticisms such as the ones presented frequently in this forum that the "official" numbers were inflated due to urban heating and/or adjustments. Of course, the reality is USCRN has consistently exhibited MORE warming than nClimDiv in the period of overlap. Over the last several months, the divergence has grown significantly. Heck, if you follow me closely enough, you probably know I even have a theory as to why that is... Anyways, USCRN agrees with the satellite data, finding this to be the WARMEST winter to date on record for the CONUS. The two month anomaly is up to +2.705F, compared to 2023-2024's anomaly of +2.630F in the USCRN dataset.

close to a phase though

Dear lord, this. We really need to get moisture here on the regular. It has been a long time since we've been in a true wet pattern.

LOL User told me you left.

Most storms in any winter are supressed. cutters ect. If it wasn't NYC would have 100 inches of snow every winter.Reason February has been snowless is because of arctic high pressure over us.We were too cold..Still have the rest of February and March. I think this winter will have above normal snow in NYC. Many area's have already achieved it. Wouldn't lump this winter with the awful years of 2018-2025

It's a stunner - for all the snowpack fetishists - this is about as good as it gets. The depth of the snowpack - sealed in like it is - is genuinely rare.

Unfortunately the EC has a tendency to kill waves. GEFS is usually more accurate.

Keep that high over the northeast/new england and I suspect the cold air will show up. Assuming that look is correct or even improves a bit, I'd expect more ice to start showing up. TW

Excess weight can have a significant adverse impact on these natural cooling mechanisms. A study published in the specialist journal Nature in 2018 indicated that there is a positive correlation between obesity and body temperature in men and postmenopausal women. Researchers found that not only do subcutaneous fat reserves act as a layer of insulation, hindering heat exchange and therefore the cooling process, but that overweight people produce more heat. On the one hand, the higher body mass increases the basal metabolic rate and, on the other, the metabolically active adipose tissue results in the secretion of numerous hormones and semiochemicals that affect heat regulation. Further studies revealed that physical activity undertaken by obese people at high temperatures result in a higher rise in body temperature and heart rate than people of an average weight – and are therefore placed under greater strain. https://www.seca.com/en_us/company/stories/details/article/caution-with-obesity-in-the-summer-heat.html

Not looking great as of now for cold snowy for the east coast. Hope changes soon.

Some more on the winter anomalies:

But isn’t that the point? It’s been cold since then, and now we’re getting into sun angle season, so that’s when it usually breaks. I think we’re all ready for spring. .

Yeah and we've seen these AI ops refuse to move once they get locked on an idea, smh I'd love to see a positive trend on those in the next day or so to have more confidence in our chances...

Icon was no to far from the phase though

Lol you do parts of Leesburg are in Western and the part you live in which is closer to that dangler is in eastern. I know this drives you nuts because it used to do the same to me when i lived 50 ft from you

Snowpack retention has been excellent except for the warmup in January.

So...suppressed

Wait when was the rant? Haha

And so ends the sub-freezing streak, with 18 days in a row staying entirely below 32 (the famous 1976-77 streak had a day in the middle of the streak hit exactly 32), this is good for 5th all time.

Just a slight over adjustment. It'll be back next run.