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He got the #drought in there

Euro has a monster winter storm for NC two weeks out.

GFS has a decent event this weekend. Euro is dusterville. Euro feels right.

GSP stated in their afternoon disco that snow totals have increased again. I'll be watching the shorter term guidance the next 24 hours. I did see some of the convection allowing models suggesting up to a foot of snow along the highest peaks.

ACATT could easily be on the wrong side. Looks like an up and in type gradient to me

Depending on the model/specific run it looks like the 18th, or the 19-20th on the GFS/GEFS. Looks like there could be 2 pieces where neither does much of anything, maybe a dusting(Euro). Next few runs might be interesting- small chance this could end up better.

as long as you drive me there

This is a 10-day(!) map. This isn't just the d10-15 map. This is d5-15 map. I am not guaranteeing this verifies. But if I showed you this during August, and said that temps are going to be BN during our coldest climatology w/ blocking over the top and out West...would you have taken this map? You bet!!! The risk is that this pattern is dry. For many of our good snows, we need cold in place and good source regions.

Look for someone to hold you

I'm going back to Lacona. Life is to short for waiting on a 10 day unicorn. I've gotten interest from a couple others. I know a spot with 4 units in the same camp (sled camp) at 1400 elevation on the upslope Tug Hill. We could do a Mid Atlantic snow chase. Guaranteed snow.

Saw an easily could be rain post and got frightened

I want synoptic sleet and S+ from OES again.

TBH, I'll take a cutter over 18 and windy at this point.

Might I suggest far NNE. They don't have internet.

You are his death star. Just orbit around him to extinguish any flame of hope that happens to ignite-

Hopefully it looks more like this than a cutter

i was trying to bring good juju also a good winter storm would have satiated the winter cry babies

ill be danged....we actually went up in snowfall from 00z to 12z after all

If the EPS is correct, after 1/20 it looks like a gradient pattern sets up and gradient patterns in Nina’s very highly favor New England

Oh it’s there. Might get interrupted briefly by a nice cutter but it’s there. We’ll finish January BN on temps unless there is a huge shift in guidance post-weekend.

Does that mean it will snow at my home?

Eps is pretty cold

If we can't score one legit event, 6"+, be Feb 5th then I think our season is cooked.

What a run of the 12z Euro just speaking from a 500 pattern perspective. If snow is on the ground, this is how record lows are broken. Below is textbook, high latitude blocking pattern. As long as that cold air pool is sitting and spinning over Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec....that trough will have a hard time being anywhere but the eastern half of North America. The trough will try to go west from Jan 22-24, but it "appears" there is a very strong Arctic air mass poised to descend well below the 49th parallel. IF THIS IS REAL, many boxes are check for a pattern which would support a winter storm(s) over eastern North America. Trough east of Hawaii, phase 8 MJO, EPO ridge, block over Alaska, -AO, -NAO, and western Europe trough. IF REAL, I would expect there would be a potential storm run an impressive temperature and pressure gradient between cold and warm air masses. That gradient would stretch southwest to northwest. That potential storm could could be a cutter, or over-running event(probable), or EC storm. But when you draw up a pattern for winter weather....this is it. I do NOT know if this will verify, but this look is present across modeling right now in some iteration or another. I pulled the apparent temperature map as this rolls through at 306. And you all know the rules at this range, especially when looking at detailed maps at range. But this is just wild and worth a share IMHO. Those real feel temps. One end of the state is 27 degrees AN, and the other end is 20 degrees BN. That would be an all timer in regards to cold fronts.

looks like its time to schedule a chase