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It's even got the GLL thats gonna drop down and rain us out!

I loved to hear the rain pelting the side of my house at 38° on an ENE gale because there was no PV, at least sometimes NNE got snow out of it. I'll take this instead.

I'm not shocked....I mentioned to Steve, 2014-2015 was the best QBO/solar match I could find...couple that with the subsurface warmth within the ENSO region, and bang. Furthermore, check out the analogs in this +TNH composite that I compiled for the late January/early February period in my outlook? Here is a composite of seasons that fit this +TNH description over the past decade or so. I also liked 2012-2013 as analog, but ultimately decided against using 2012-2013 and 2014-2015 because they were too warm ENSOish, but I thought they both had value for latter January into early February. Moving forward I am going to be more aggressive with straying from ENSO in my seasonal analog composite unless it's strong.

Love seeing it trend south with the big totals west of the apps as well.

I can tell you 100%.... Any global that shows ice up on the Skyway, the resolution isn't good enough. Any CAMs that show ice the placement of the resolution is off.

Off topic but GFS still has the big Miller A 2/2-2/3.

I've seen it as the anti GFS, an outlier to the opposite extreme.

This screams like a Norwell/Hanover jack to me. Maybe even interior Cohasset and Marshfield, a couple miles away from the water.

Interesting but the US high res models aren't showing colder/snowier solutions than the GGEM/UK/Euro so...not sure what the point is from a functional POV

You’d think that. .

I'll be keeping you northern middle TN guys in my thoughts while you are in the upper teens to mid 20's and collecting ICE for hours on end. I'm heading to Walgreens to grab some sunscreen for when the downslope dries me out and pushes me into the 50s on Sunday... :-)

What is BAMS? Please don’t tell me BAM has started selling some in house model to News stations? That would make me sad.

If Fort Smith got 26" as the 12z GFS Kuchera indicated, I wonder if that would be a Jan record for them if not all time.

This is going to be one of the most impactful winter storms this country has ever seen. Here are the snow and freezing rain (ZR) maps for the US from the NBM (model blend). A foot+ of snow from Texas to Maine is insane and crippling 1"+ ice storms south of that snow for many may be even more impactful. Also, if you look at these same maps from 3 days ago, below, you can see how much further south the big swaths of snow and ice were (when most of us were worrying about suppression) – they’ve moved northward about 150 miles, as the modeling and the actual system have evolved, but that’s not an unusual track forecast error that far out. But I’m sure it’s disappointing for the folks who are snow lovers who thought they were getting a foot of snow and who will now likely be getting up to 1” of ice.

Here u go

New York City - 13 Boston - 19 Philadelphia - 10 Washington DC - 7 Hartford - 17 Albany - 15

Yes and death bands ene

What model has the clipper mid week? I don't see anything about it.

I think the Canadian was the first one with the I-44 south look and has also had lesser amounts days ago.

I've been tracking Phoenix's weather for a while now. January 2026 is a lock for a top-10 warmest month, and based on the predicted temps, looking at top 3. (Through 1/22 it's the warmest Jan on record, but current predicted weather seems to knock it down) Since July 2023 that set the record for warmest month in Phoenix history (102.7), 18 of the last 31 months have been in the top 10 of their respective months (New records have been set Feb (2025), June (2024), July (2023), September (2024), October (2024), and December (2024 and 2025).

100%. Glad it made the other positive changes, moved snow totals south and did get wetter.

Approaching Blizzard of 93 coverage, colossal.

NYC - 10” BOS - 16” PHL - 9” DC - 8” HFD - 17” ALB - 16” jackpot will be some where alone 84 from NE PA to W CT

Who knows how it’ll play out. But 12z has been pretty consistent in this area. Generally 1.25.-1.50