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Man, can’t win. Looks warmer this week, but a lot of overcast it appears.

We start our major warm up today with temperatures reaching well into the 70's. We warm into the 80's on Tuesday with our warmest days both Wednesday and Thursday. While places along the I95 corridor could see record highs in the 90's it looks like we should stay in the middle 80's here in Chester County. Our Chester County record high for Wednesday is 89 degrees set in Phoenixville way back in 1941. Thursday's record high is 92 degrees set at multiple county stations back in 1896 and 2002. We have a slight chance of showers this afternoon and again on Wednesday night, but our best chance of any showers looks to arrive on Saturday night.

We start our major warm up today with temperatures reaching well into the 70's. We warm into the 80's on Tuesday with our warmest days both Wednesday and Thursday. While places along the I95 corridor could see record highs in the 90's it looks like we should stay in the middle 80's here in Chester County. Our Chester County record high for Wednesday is 89 degrees set in Phoenixville way back in 1941. Thursday's record high is 92 degrees set at multiple county stations back in 1896 and 2002. We have a slight chance of showers this afternoon and again on Wednesday night, but our best chance of any showers looks to arrive on Saturday night.

That’s not quite how it works. Climate change reinforces these large heat bursts by well over 1.5 degrees. It’s not as if the earth uniformly just steps up 1.5 degrees. The heat burst out west last month was a feedback loop where heat was able to really build and build due to higher CO2. the same goes for actually cool summers. Those are much less likely now because of new atmosphere we have, even though global temperatures in aggregate have increase a few degrees.

Progress ... some sky lights unzipping. I just hate it when these cloud packed mornings do this and waste days. It's a spring thing...

On a lighter note, my tribute to the successful Artemis mission

Models have been hinting at this potential for the past 7-8 days with very little wavering...pretty impressive to see. I wouldn't be surprised if that got extended a bit east as well. One downside though is the overall forcing doesn't appear particularly strong. What this is going to do is likely negate this from producing scattered thunderstorm activity within the region as a whole. The best likelihood is probably going to be across like VT/NH/northern MA where there may be some better forcing and also on the edge of the stronger llvl airmass/theta-e gradient. Probably see at least one cluster roll through here. Maybe differential heating can pop some stuff elsewhere

This week is going to be brutal for sure. It is painful to see so many 90's F in the forecast this early ugh.

Saw a lot of commentary online criticizing them for it too. People have no clue how hard it is to get any grass looking healthy in a drought with Georgia heat, let alone bentgrass greens. I agree, irrigation helps to a degree but it can’t replace the type of soaking that rain delivers.

...can use this too.National 7-Day Significant Fire Potential

...Northeast... Rounds of thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening within a warm advection regime. MLCAPE should increase to around 1000 J/kg within a moistening low-level airmass. Strong deep-layer westerly flow and steepening low-level lapse rates will support isolated strong wind gusts across the region. I wouldn't be shocked if the Marginal gets extended E and a smaller Slight region gets embedded..

Low of 51. Had our first fire pit of the season last night. Now comes the heat.

True but I've seen some longer range winter predictions using analogs from even further back (1950's and 60's) Just not as reliable anymore but fair to say 1995 is recent enough that it's not as bad of a match. we will see. But always rooting against a 2009 type summer that was just awful.

We just keep heading headlong into this crap. Totally OT for wx stuff, but... Feelin' like it's all over Feelin' like there's no love Feelin' like it's not easy Breathin' life in the dust On a countdown to zero Take a ride on the nightmare machine There ain't gonna be heroes There ain't gonna be anything, oh Here it comes, here comes the night Here it comes, hell in the night Here it comes, here comes the night When we all fall down When we walk into silence When we shadow the sun When we surrender to violence When the damage is done Put away that gun I don't wanna be there I don't wanna be anywhere, oh Here it comes, here comes the night Here it comes, hell in the night Here it comes, here comes the night That's right We're fightin' for the gods of war But what the hell we fightin' for? We're fightin' with the gods of war But I'm a rebel And I ain't gonna fight no more, no way On a countdown to zero Take a ride on the nightmare machine There ain't gonna be heroes, whoa There ain't gonna be anything, no Here it comes, here comes the night Here it comes, hell in the night Here it comes, here comes the night Don't ya know that's right? We're fightin' for the gods of war But what the hell we fightin' for? We're fightin' with the gods of war And I ain't gonna fight no more Stop (stop fightin' for the gods of war) stop fightin' for the gods of war (Yeah, what the hell we fightin' for?) What the hell we fightin' for? (We're fightin' with the gods of war) Heavy! "Message to terrorists everywhere, You can run, but you can't hide" "We're determined to stand together and we're determined to take action" "We're not going to tolerate these attacks from outlaw states" "We will not cave in" "Today, we have done what we had to do" "He counted on America to be passive. He counted wrong"

Add 1.5 degrees then to 1995. Wouldn't change what he said. We aren't talking about 1820.

We will see... either way I hope this Summer goes by quick.. Summer sucks once we go above 85 unless dews are low

Big difference in lapse rates on NAM versus GFS tomorrow. NAM keeps feeding in steeper lapse rates throughout the day while the GFS weakens them a bit before another surge of steeper lapse rates build in.

Exactly. Some of these analogs are not as useful given how much we have warmed since the 90's

Hi res has some big boomers out that way too. And I don’t just mean retirees from NYC.

It’s also windy AF out. But finally some dim sun.

Too bad we don't have better lapse rates Tuesday afternoon because that looks modestly interesting given the other synoptic parameters. W to WNW at 700 mb, SW below 850mb is a directional +helicity. About 20 to 25 kts +d(v) between 925 and 500 so not great speed shear. But I said "modestly" heh But a front is approaching into a DP anomaly that pushed its way up to S VT/NH latitudes in most guidance. > 60 F, with ongoing temperatures 80+. This is a June CAPEd air mass smeared up under an impulse cutting through N VT/NH late in the afternoon and evening, arriving after the morning and early afternoon were baked under more sun than clouds. As an aside, tomorrow is going to seem out of place. Anachronistic because the landscape is still lagged lagged so far behind what people typically associate with air of summer aroma. Anyway, the Euro still sniffing out enough instability and a mechanics to ignite broken lines of coherent convective QPF structures in these charts.

Wow, the gradient of natural snow has been so pronounced all season in VT. I skied Killington Wednesday and Thursday and the natural snowpack was pretty sparse. Skied Friday at SLoaf and natural terrain on upper half of mountain was still very good, i.e. bubblecuffer and king pine area.

General rule is that pre-strong nino summers are colder and post-strong nino summers are warmer in the East. It wasn't 1995 (that was one of the warmest summers on record, as was 1993 and 1994). However, both 1996 and 1997 were cooler summers (1997 was a pre-nino summer). It must have been one of those years. The only time the rule didn't hold was when the pre-nino summer of 1991 was very warm, and the post-nino summer of 1992 was cool. However, we had a major volcano in 1991 (in Pinatubo), and that screwed things up. 91-92 behaved more like the reverse of the way a strong el nino would normally. Global temperatures actually cooled, as the effects of Pinatubo canceled out a robust el nino. Pre-strong nino/post-strong nino summer average temps (PHL) since 1970 72-73: pre-nino summer 72 (73.9); post-nino summer 73 (77.1) 82-83: pre-nino summer 82 (73.0); post-nino summer 83 (75.7) 86-88: pre-nino summer 86 (75.3); post-nino summer 88 (77.1) [summer 87 during the el nino was 76.5] 91-92: pre-nino summer 91 (77.9); post-nino summer 92 (74.0) 97-98: pre-nino summer 97 (74.2); post-nino summer 98 (75.7) 09-10: pre-nino summer 09 (75.1); post-nino summer 10 (79.6) 15-16: pre-nino summer 15 (77.7); post-nino summer 16 (78.8) 23-24: pre-nino summer 23 (75.8; although JAS was 76.1); post-nino summer 24 (78.5)

FYP.