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I'll wait until Ralph tells me when to be optimistic

Cloudy with temperatures slowly rising to near and then above freezing this evening. There could be a couple light showers this evening that in some of the higher ridge areas could briefly see some light icing if temperatures are still freezing when the showers arrive. The good news is temperatures will continue to rise tonight and well into the 40's tomorrow with a line of showers passing through in the morning. We will become sharply colder again tomorrow with temperatures dropping to freezing by evening. We then stay well below normal for the remainder of the week and into the first week of 2026. Next light snow chance looks possible around New Year's Day.

Those crashing temps are right on our doorstep.

Looks like a winter weather advisory for Lehigh county tonight as they're calling for some freezing rain overnight.

Hard to not be even slightly optimistic about this:

Cloudy with temperatures slowly rising to near and then above freezing this evening. There could be a couple light showers this evening that in some of the higher ridge areas could briefly see some light icing if temperatures are still freezing when the showers arrive. The good news is temperatures will continue to rise tonight and well into the 40's tomorrow with a line of showers passing through in the morning. We will become sharply colder again tomorrow with temperatures dropping to freezing by evening. We then stay well below normal for the remainder of the week and into the first week of 2026. Next light snow chance looks possible around New Year's Day.

You must really be feeling this - CTP says gusts in the LSV reach 40-50 mph.

Models did a pretty good job of picking that up. They showed a heavy snow band for us but not much accumulation until closer to noon. .

History in general is useful, however, I just do not see the benefit from a forecasting perspective where we are trying to understand the upcoming patterns (this forum). I would personally 50 years is ideal, as I am seeing a lot of the 1970s, 80s and 90s repeat since 2018 (actually lived through 80s onward). I don't see how stating "this cold would have been above average in 1923" will help us do a January forecast. There is a separate climate change forum where past information is highly relevant and should be discussed, as it can help us prepare for continued change (unless it stops or reverts).

Disagree strongly. You can get an amplified storm with only the northern stream. The PNA gives you the track you need for a coastal and the NAO both prevents a cutter and slows down the flow to allow storms to amplify. what we have been missing lately is both the storm track and a blocky flow which allows storms to amplify. This pattern provides that, northern stream or not. Sure we may not get an east coast QPF bomb without some help from the STJ, but we can absolutely see a prolonged period of moderate to higher end events with this pattern. everyone on her know I have no bias when it comes to weather, I’m calling it how I see it.

Same here on the brine, They usually pre treat a day or two before an event.

My pack is pretty icy, so may survive.

Temps should start nose diving shortly and then we should start stacking efficiently. Solid coating on all surfaces here so far. Going to be a paste job on the trees as they freeze up.

Just what we need...more freaking wind.

Lock that up...the 12.5 is right over my new house

Man Minneapolis looks to get clocked with a nice snowstorm today. Wish I was there with my non playoff making Vikings team so I can still post about Lamar G III not playing again because of one of the following. IBS, flu, diverticulitis, hamstring, ouchy back or whatever

6z EuroAI likes the 10th-11th. We'll see how many more runs it can hold. Lol

I agree with using the latest 30 years as a valid forecasting tool, and those data sets are vitally important. I also think we should have readily available longer term data sets to fully understand climate shifts over the last couple of centuries, including how man made factors are contributing to the documented warmth. It's a climate vs. meteorology debate, and both are important.

My town uses the liquid brine stuff on the main roads, but then the greenish colored salt mix on our side roads. They will probably be plowing during the rain anyway, digging up our wrecked road

I think we need to consider the 6-7-8 a pattern arrival event That's going to be an H.A. implication ( I suspect ...) as nearing the 5th, all ens systems agree in the rather abrupt guard change in the N. Pacific. The entire circulation medium out there essentially product reverses, like on a temporal dime when considering planetary wave distribution. Really fast... intra-weekly time scale. If that happens - first of all - that's likely to cause increased model performance problems. Furthermore, the implications of sending a such a violent signal down stream, the western N/A ridge will be in a period whence the 'correction vector' will be pointed toward more amplitude - hint, I think more than is currently in the cinemas. It's a wave # number/distribution argument. When you supplant the regions N of HA with as much total height anomaly reversal (lowering in this case) like these charts below are showing ( using the GEPs but they are all doing it ), there will physically necessitate height growth into western North America... More than 50% ...closer to 80% of this mass field alteration takes place in < 5 days. I would be reeeally leery about any depictions down stream over eastern N/A. And by that, more amplitude is actually favored. When I say correction vector that's just an expression I use to mean corrections that are inevitable in the guidance will likely lean in a given direction... That all times around the 7th for some sort of emergence E of the nations midriff longitudes.

Snowing hard now. Not much has stuck yet but it’s starting to turn white in the street. If this band can stick around for a while, this will start adding up quick. .

Or maybe just regurgitating the Euro. Lol

15 this morning

That would be an absolute nightmare lol.

I'll take anything honestly. I'm not picky. This is the first time in almost a decade I have off for the holidays (12/31 to 1/5). I'd like to have some stress free snow.