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One subtle trend over the last day or so is the whole thing kind of looks a little healthier. It hasn’t translated to a north bump, but maybe if that continues it could eventually creep north. I guess we know what to look for at 00z

I’m totally good being 10-20mi north of the max at 36-48 hours

I asked some of the more knowledgeable people around here and this warmup does have legs. MJO moving to phase 5 being one piece of the puzzle. However it’ll be more like a week of 50s instead of a 70 degree torch.

Do you know how often the AIFS is re-trained? Would be amazing if in fact it gets better over the course of each event and each idiosyncratic setup. I came across this indicating an updated training schedule, but does not detail: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.18994 (before I get misconstrued... I would hate losing the joy and suspense of forecasting to a perfect AI)

I love when you talk dirty like this . Please get a bit dirtier

we'll extend the silver line out there and build up around that.

OK so we get half of Dec BN then 2 weeks N/AN....thats fair. Then if you believe the weeklies we get 1st half Jan N/AN with 2nd half N/BN. If you told be in Sept we would have half of D/J cold and potentially active I would take that 8 days a week over a complete blowtorch all winter. When do we ever get wall to wall cold? Half of each month will suffice just fine.

Canadian not too far from Euro maybe a bit more aggressive

Only when it goes away and we rain lol .

Like always in a NINA it seems,we see some flakes.If it snows it will be in March where it screws up severe

By the way, GSO is officially recorded.2” of snow Monday

Cold Christmas on the Euro with some type of storm. Hopefully the cold runs continue

Essentially the pattern is this at 12z. A slp slides into the NW(just ignore the runs where it stalls, reforms, slides to the southwest in perpetuity, etc). When that strong lp slides across the Rockies, the counter-clockwise rotation forces a strong chinook which races eastward. As the slp slides into the Plains, it drags extremely cold air behind it. That cold then slides eastward. Wash, rinse, repeat. If the SLP stalls over the NW(likely feedback), then it pumps a crazy ridge in the east. Ensembles are washing this pattern out. Now, I fully admit the SER could out-duel the incoming cold. But the corrections at 12z seem to infer a very back-and-forth pattern which would feature NW flow snow, severe, record warmth, and possible record cold. Wild West. And really, it is not a SER which were are fighting...it is a chinook on steroids. I think when the ridge in the East is anomalous, you will find a feedback issue off the West Coast. It isn't quite the Baja low feedback issue, but it is in the same part of the world w/ the same result.

Coming out Sunday to ski. Should be some great conditions Hoping they have some of the East ridge open by then.

me knowing i'm getting at least a few inches of snow Sunday

I am not convinced of this warm up 1Euro and Euro AI both have a winter threat around Christmas

Next week is probably a loss, but theres still some chance for atleast some overrunning leading up to Christmas. Nice little system christmas eve on the euro and deep cold christmas day.

Yeah, I definitely hear you, another nudge SW would add more confidence but having the Euro basically hold+, is great. We'll be at Deep Creek this weekend but rooting hard for DC.

-Ripping .

It's [looks out window] still liquid downstream of the BU Bridge but was frozen upstream where it's narrower/shallower/less windy at least before the brief warmup/light rain (I haven't been across it in that area since). Probably too much thermal mass and wind to freeze that over without a couple of cool, calm nights, although the wind is probably cooling it nicely. I think the last time it froze in Boston in December was late 2017, but then melted out once that cold snap abated a few weeks later ("abated" being a nice way of saying "2 inches of rain at 60°"). The all-timer was 2015, of course, when it froze in early Jan and melted out on something like April 3.

Nah. It will be muted. It wants to be cold this December. Couple more runs and the models will spit out a white Christmas. Yes, yes ithey will.

Same. If we get more than an inch, I would be super pleased

The 12z Euro continues the 12z suite trend of muting or erasing entire sections of the warm-up. More posts to follow here...I will just edit this post. Run-2-run changes for maybe a not so random day...ensembles don't reflect this yet, but the trend is pretty hard to ignore. I wouldn't quite call it a flip as plenty of warm persists, but the standing wave - poof.

About time too.

I think this winter is a second half winter for you all. Middle and West have far outdone NE TN during the 2020s which is wild...even Knoxville has. Generally, the cold finds you all at some point during recent La Nina climo. I think u all will be good.