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Trying to scratch and claw my way towards climo snowfall. I need around 10" to get there.

We barely had any precip going on 3 weeks now by this weekend. This has to be one for the record books.

Euro ai has a decent amount of rain for us through the end of its run. Maybe we can starting denting the drought on the way towards spring.

You don’t really have even the most basic understanding of how complex worldwide systems work. We currently have a two-tiered economic system around the world. This means that the areas with sufficient wealth can insulate themselves from environmental issues including issues stemming from the warming climate. So the worldwide crop yields increasing is more a function of the expansion of living standards for people in the more prosperous societies. So localized crop failures in the Middle East and Central America contributing mass migrations cause issues for people on the lower rung of the economic ladder. These displaced peoples move to the more prosperous societies to the north with increasing crop yields where they are absorbed. But they directly compete with the lower people in these societies who are already facing economic challenges. This leads to political instability in those societies. Same story for rising insurance rates in the U.S. from extreme weather disasters. The people with more economic means just shrug off these increases. But an increasing segment of society living paycheck to paycheck are forced to move or sell their house and rent. This is the situation we find ourselves in today across the planet with what is being described as a K shaped economy. So all the headline numbers we see are a function of a smaller share doing relatively well. You saying that a few crop failures in an otherwise increasing crop yields world is essentially a big fat nothing burger is a classic let them eat cake response. Just like the people who say that increasing property insurance rates isn’t a big deal are missing an important process. We live in a very delicately balanced global economic society. If a growing number of people don’t feel like society isn’t working for them, then the current global structure is on borrowed time since it’s unsustainable. Climate and environmental degradation are contributing factors to many other instabilities in this economic system. There are also plenty others leading to the current global state. So we can list a whole series of other issues across the board. But your attitude exemplifies the casual disregard for important underlying issues which will probably come to a head in coming years. I am ultimately very hopeful long term. My guess is that we will eventually achieve a more in balanced global society with others and the natural world. But the road to that future state will probably be bumpy. But in the end I think local segments of like minded people will build a more bottom up society that works for everyone rather than the current top down model.

As had been consistently the case with most of the high-quality guidance, the 500 mb story has remained largely unchanged. The spacing between the energy in the East remains too great to allow for much interaction, much less a phased solution. The top-performing ECMWF-AIFS has returned to its prior little or no snow solutions for President's Day. Finally, the overnight EPS deflated whatever dreams of a snowy solution might previously have existed.

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Bottom dropped out on the temperatures. 12° here and - 1° at Norwood.

Models are printing out more and more Pacific moisture for the Sierran Cordillera Sun night on into mid/late next week. It's now up to 4-5 inches of pure water. When that moisture conveyor hits the Cordillera and is forced 11,000 Plus feet straight up - LOOK OUT. Its February. Thermals gonnabe NO PROBLEMO. Massive travel weekend ahead. Millions of people trying to get back home later on say Tuesday next week will be frantic and forced to shelter in place. We may well be revisiting a little bit of the Infamous 2022-2023 Season there in that part of the world. I hope and PRAY with all of my desperate little MORBID snow weenie heart, ESPECIALLY SINCE I AM NOT GONNABE THERE, RISKING MY LOWER BACK FROM A FALL, that the models are DEAD WRONG and that Mammoth gets twice as much snow as is currently being depicted. Maybe even triple the currently depicted amount! George BM only thinks he is into extreme winter weather. I am gonna ENJOY this catastrophe! I will be eagerly happily watching from 84/63 Buda, drinking fresh cold well water like a hot horse in the Valley of Kings in Egypt in August, perfectly safe from falling on the superabundant ice in the Cordillera and also perfectly safe from easily freezing to death like the Donner Party in what could well turn out to be one of the worst snow episodes in recent history in the Sierras! I DEMAND MY SNOW FIX! And, I WILL get it - in SPADES! This has been a classic Jebman Presentation, likely for the Ages. Please, Carry on.

Looks like we spike to 40 here Tuesday, but other than that only slightly above freezing. We'll take that.

‘81-82 was an excellent winter…one of the few good ones that decade. Very cold that winter with a lot of good events culminating in the April ‘82 blizzard. The problem with the 1980s is they had so few blockbuster storms…esp post-1984. We have a few biggies in 1987 (esp interior) but that’s about it. Then you mix in some absolute garbage snow winters overall like ‘84-85, ‘85-86, ‘88-89 and the decade averages out quite poor.

Driest winter for CLT since 2001 i think I read.

This chart shows the enso effect more clearly. Big dips in net radiation due to radiation to space occurred in 2010 and 2024 ninos. The correlation isn't perfect because there are other factors as well. Cloud cover for instance impacts the amount of sunlight that gets reflected back to space. Less clouds is contributing to the current increasing rate of heat build-up in the climate system. Reduced cloud cover is a positive feedback to warming temperatures. In-any-case the climate system isn't constant. As I pointed above, averaging over 11 years cancels out the short term variation.

Based on what I can ascertain so far, it gets warm in the early part of the week, maybe a day with 10 above normal or something. Then a minor system moves towards us, which might be mixed perhaps on Wednesday. Then a bigger system, which looks like a swfe and redeveloper comes in for Friday and Saturday, which should be snowy up here and a little tough to say in southern New England.

Is mid and late week next week 1 system or 2?

I'd be cautious without a peer reviewed paper. There is a lot of misinformation on climate out there. We see it here all the time. Most of the published studies I've seen show a negative effect. One that will increase in the future. Warmth is a benefit in northern areas, but a negative further south. Here are a couple of links. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00491-0 https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/climate-change-cuts-global-crop-yields-even-when-farmers-adapt

2020 was a warm and essentially snowless winter, which reversed to the mean, and turned cold in April and May. Same with 2023, which turned cold in May and June. We have nothing like that like this year. If we regress to the mean this year, it will be more like 2010, 2011, and 2015. All of those were cold and snowy winters, which turned warm in the spring. Yeah, none of this is going to happen. Polar vortex disruptions don't happen 2 weeks apart this late in the season. We're at best only going to get one of these.

Flakes maybe, I certainly don't see inches

I was born in 1970. There were a couple that were cold for certain short periods, and many that almost felt like months of extended late fall. It was a terrible decade for winter, with just a select few notable events mixed in. Observed from my back yard, I didn't focus much broader at the time Selfish teen lol

Grb duh

Icon/EPS will save us.... Knew more surprises were coming, I fully expect to be teased again at 06Z/12Z euro suite... Storm won't die

6z ICON EPS also

6z ICON was trying again

Icon !

I remember the May 2020 snow. It was the weekend I tore my rotator cuff. The high, I believe that Saturday, was only in the 30's, and we did have flurries and snow showers in Tamaqua. Of course there was no accumulation, but it was the first and only time I saw snow in May.

Nam way south This storm is done