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We take scraps... WINDEX events can be fun for a bit. Not as good as a big, long duration event of course. Could cover up the dog poop for a bit

One of two decent events that winter in what was otherwise a D winter. January 7th-8th 2024 event was 9.6 inches in Highland Mills. Parts of NW jersey and Dutchess county were in the 12-14 range from that event.

do you have a season to date snowfall

As we get nearer, the long-range appears to be adjusting a little colder in the modeling, as it has most of the winter. The AI models seem to be leading the way. We'll see where we are in about a week... maybe we can stay on the cold side of the boundary. Total wild card with the PNA ridge breaking down. Historically that would signal springlike weather but the tenor of this winter with the neg NAO and Atlantic pattern could mitigate that. Fingers crossed.

You're right, I do. But at 58 years old, and no skills other than landscaping and truck driving, I'm not sure anyone would hire me.

I don't live and die with every model run...especially not the GFS. I check in once or twice a day usually after 12z in quiet periods like this. 11-14th period looks even more interesting today than it did yesterday imo. People also need to stop looking at the shitty GFS... Euro flexes the SE ridge in the day 10 like the GFS but we've seen that be overdone all year long. Euro AI at 6z was close to a decent miller b on the 10-11th followed by 2 more threats after that. Mid month looks like the precip opens up, whether or not we have the cold in place will be TBD, but it will be lurking close by. I don't think the pattern in that timeframe screams all snow, but it definitely looks wintry imo. I also would not sleep on Friday night/sat morning, would not be surprised if someone gets a quick inch or two at all.

35.6. Felt balmy outside. At least we have cloud cover to protect the pack a bit today.

Some models showing a little light ZR as well. The pavement will still be holding some of the cold we've had especially in the shade so roads could certainly be slick

17 years ago (February 3-4, 2009):

I am ready for severe season since we couldn't get the job done in a near perfect setup this winter IMBY. We aren't going to make up for that this year so might as well move on.

Once again a broken clock is more often right than HRRR

Low of 8.4 up to 27.7 now

40° today? I think so

Pretty close to a full split.....I would wait to see what actually verified because I still anticipate a full split, more akin to 2018 and 2023.

All this to say I do want to go out with a bang for the season but my hopes are slowly fading like the winter season.

Yea, we'll see...I certainly don't expect a perfect forecast from 3 months lead.

I am looking forward to my trip up at the end of February and hoping the snowy weather holds up. Of course we just had that epic storm where I was and I was in the screw zone dry slot (we only got 4 inches). I did chase to where some of the big amounts occurred though because I wasn't going to sit through that nonsense. The amazing thing for NC is it was in the teens for this storm with 20:1 ratios and better in some cases. Here is a pic from that chase in the FGEN band. See you all soon!

Mping says yes: https://mping.ou.edu/display/

Unfortunately it still looks as though things will be intact through Strato to Tropo. There has been residual high latitude blocking on the Pacific side of the arctic a lot this season which has allowed us to remain relatively cold through many of the months. If we can hold that pattern into the second half of February as things relax yet again I would not be surprised at a similar progression as we saw in January for February. The SPV just does not get demolished like we typically want to see. Well again we saw something similar to this last year around this time. From about the 3rd week of February to mid March there really was not a whole lot that took place. I want to say there was a quick snowfall that snuck in but this was the overall pattern at 500mb after the event took place. The graphs below show a funky wave 2 tried to set up but ultimately ended up being a wave 1 event and tiny lobe was over Greenland for a bit. Similar things don't always produce the same event but I wouldn't expect much out of this if we go down that path. That is actually fairly typical in split events (if the split event were to occur) the larger more intact lobe goes to Eurasia while a piece splits off to our side. It is the lack of a true split that leads to almost being another wave 1 displacement event again fairly similar to last year at this time. This was what the Euro and GFS had leading up to the event. I wish I had saved the later portion but I guess I deleted stuff.

Got 1.4" of fluff here yesterday. Season to date snowfall is 36.3" imby and 35.3" at DTW. Deep winter continues.

Only issue is as of yesterday’s runs it’s getting away from a full reversal. We’ll see how today’s charts look

End total for me was 12" and got down to -1. Overall an incredible event which was by far my largest snow in the 7 years I've been here.

Detroit finished January with a mean temp of 20.6F (-5.2F), precip 1.43” (-0.80”) and snowfall 17.1” (+3.1”). Snow depth of 1”+ covered the ground for 23 of the 31 days, peak depth 9” on multiple days.