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Haha- just renewed my SC licensing bond last week- but I don't build much in SC compared to NC- i have Unlimited class in NC, and NC lets us do attestation v having to renew the surety.every year- there are some big differences between the two states in terms of Admin code Yea it costs me time and $$$ every Dec to Feb- building during the winter is def my least favorite- ground is always wet, and sometimes you can't hit a final grade/landscaping until March on some projects- it sucks when such a minor thing holds up a bigger development. End buyers purchase heavily in March-June, so you really don't have a choice but to build, unfortunately Muni/State Bids must be a nightmare right now- I can only imagine since they are such big $$$ projects...fortunately I get to skip that whole step bc I am the project owner/developer and the GC (I would be protecting myself....from myself lol)....we typically don't have to mess with them as much on the resi side- I haven't had to do one since I became a GC....

Shaping up to be an awesome AIGFS and gfs run lot of snow chances

It's possible, there's a mountain to my SE that rises about 900 feet above me.

That looks like an AI version of the GFS ensemble.

That's embarrassing. Anyways, ORH has had a pretty good streak going of not hitting 20F. Today is day 6 and tomorrow will be day 7 of continuous sub-20F temps. We haven't had a signature crazy cold outbreak but it's been consistent solidly BN cold just bleeding down the monthly departure. 7 days would be ties for 3rd longest streak on record with late Dec-early Jan 1918, Jan 2000, and late Dec-early Jan 2018. We might get to 9 days on Sunday but I think Monday will finally break the streak before we can reach 10 days. 10 days is the record....both 1979 and 1961 hit 10 days. Still an impressive streak even if we stop at 9.

I’ll bite. I enjoy it immensely. I would much rather work outside in a week of -10/+10 temps then 90+ with 70+ dews. I’m outside 80% of the time with my job so I have experience in all weather Minnesota can throw at me. I’m a diehard skier too so that’s an added reason I love deep winter. I’m ready for a pattern shakeup so we can get some fresh snow. There has only been one calendar day snowfall of 1” this month at MSP. I think it’s kinda strange how much you bitch and moan about the weather in a region you don’t frequently visit, but hey it’s a free country.

Hey, it’s active, and it’s cold…we roll the dice some more. Quite a Good winter so far for interior CT….and the second half about to kick off in a few days.

Another 8 inches would make yinzers go crazy.

The good thing with that is that's not necessarily something the CAMs should have a good handle on at this range I don't think. Probably should lean on the globals until they lock in on a synoptic scale setup, and then use the mesoscale models for localized features once things are settled up top.

Could be a solid 3 to 6 if it holds

Yep! Lived in the carmel commons area and she owned the cookie store there. Everyone sliding around and stopping mid hill then sliding backwards had me cracking up. Spent the morning pulling peeps out of ditches Good times

There's a whole lot of blocking to the north thanks to the -AO. I wouldn't count on much, if any. It could even be pushed south because of it....too far south that is.

Unfortunate coincidence. Could've been partying in an absurd mansion in Aspen. But I don't like traveling during the winter in case it snows here, so all good anyway. Not upset at all

With the 500MB pattern the way it is forecast to be and has been forecast to be for days this is not a surprise. Closing off upper low along the GA coast moving ENE, tilt of the trof which was not at all favorable, kicker feature and a sloppy surface evolution this was going to be a reach for anything decent up here, except for maybe a NJ coastal grazer and maybe central and eastern LI and even that is failing. Maybe someone, Don? can confirm when was the last time we had something major up here with a 500MB low digging to the GA coast? Certainly nothing I can remember from the recent big ones. Something that far south is going to peak and occlude way to soon and would be quite a feat to get a surface feature from off the GA coast to vicinity of the BM. It can happen but upper trof would have to be going negative rapidly, very rapidly. My friend in RDU is excited, been waiting a long time for something decent like this.

You mean Beavis? Almost as sick that one member that enjoying heat waves and complains about thunderstorms knocking down afternoon highs. That’s just demented.

Last year that would be considered a monster storm. We were measuring events in tenths of inch...ridiculous. 19F/Predicted low -2

NYC now up to 22” season to date vs 15” avg and the most as of this point since 2015-6! It’s been one heck of a season so far, based mainly on 3 significant snows. If they get avg the rest of the way, they’d have a total of 35”. Fwiw, my prediction for the season total, which was made after the 1st storm last month and is the only prediction made for this, is 40”.

Is it possible for you to get extra lift from a E/SE wind? .

Thanks, but even if one takes the GFS, GEFS and EPS over the last 3 runs for Philly, for example, the average is about 1/2" and those models contribute ~60% to the NBM according to your post with the SREFs having 30% input - if that's the case to get from 1/2" for 60% of the input to the 4.8" seen for Philly on the latest NBM, that implies the SREFs would need to be 12+" for Philly at only 30% of the input, which seems impossible, as the SREF snowfall (10:1) from the last few runs has been in the 2-4" range for Philly, unless that snow is at 30-40:1 ratios (and Kuchera is showing 20:1 inland). But I will say I didn't realize the SREFs were counted so strongly and it at least explains probably half of the NBM numbers for inland locations.

Ah, a more classic fall line storm. Would hurt to risk raining in D.C. the second precip moves into the area again, but it's refreshing to see something "normal"

This has been the worst winter in the Pacific Northwest since 2014-15. In Portland there’s been no snow or ice at all, and just about a week of freezing temperatures at night. Snowpack in the mountains is awful too.

Seeing more models key in on the leeside screw zone. Don't like it...

No doubt will get the north trend that we dearly needed this weekend lol.

"Why can't they be like we are, perfect in every way. Oh, what's the matter to kids today!" (from Bye Bye Birdie) IMO, it's more the lawyers that the kids.