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Just awful compared to 18z

Do you have access to the GFS? Correct. Not looking good at 192

Incredible! The 5.1" calendar day snowfall at Detroit yesterday was the most in a single calendar day in nearly three years! The last time more snow fell in one day was March 10, 2023 (5.2"). Even more impressive, the 7.2" calendar day snowfall at Cleveland today was the most in almost four years! The last time more snow fell in one day at Cleveland was February 3, 2022 (8.0"). I'm sure many have been waiting for days like these for a LONG time!

The recent AIGFS cycles have more of the longer-range consistency (and overall favorable pattern look) that y'all are craving.

GFS went from cutter to slider in one model run. Classic

from this to this

like wtf type changes lol

28” snowpack at 1500ft this evening. This is a QPF heavy, frozen snowpack too. I scraped an additional inch off the Barnes Camp board. The snowpack is respectable in both depth and frozen water at the Stowe base area.

Congrats @usedtobe!

Moscow is not warmer than Detroit. It is significantly colder, moreso in the summer but winters are colder too. The mean daily maximum in January is only 25.0F, which is less than the mean daily mean [average of max & min] for Detroit (25.8F), with the daily mean being 5F colder (20.8F). For the year, it's way colder. The normal annual mean is 3.6F colder than even Minneapolis. A normal year in Moscow (43.3F) is 0.7F colder than the coldest year ever recorded in Detroit (44.0F, in 1875). The difference is greatest in the late summer. The normal August in Moscow is 2.2F colder than the record coldest August in Detroit (65.9F, 1915) and the normal September is a full 4F coldest than the record coldest in Detroit (57.4F, in 1918).

00z GEFS wetter than 00z op run. Advisory level into SE areas.

9th grade. Pretty damn impressive.

The 200mb jet streak running e-w just north of us is in a nice spot at 150-180 hrs if the gulf disturbance can make it here.

Just catching up... Holy AI GFS... 6z-12z-18z-0z today have been steady ticks to increase QPF in SNE... at H5 looks like it progressively downplays the lagging vorticity that shears out off the southeast coast. We get better tilt of the trough by 0z Monday. Will be a memorable GFS vs. AIGFS showdown. Can we rely on the age-old RGEM+AIGFS combo?

GFS changes at H5 beyond our "storm" Sun/Mon or whatever are hilarious

Gefs improved

Here it is! https://bsky.app/profile/wxmvpete.bsky.social/post/3mcj3bnaps226

GFS was pretty robust for western CT. This kind of has some higher end potential as we close in. For now at least.

Do you have a Bluesky link? Would love to read your thoughts!

Holy shit. I’d have really enjoyed having you in my class. Hopefully you would have tolerated me.

Mets will offer him like $75m/yr and he'll bat .230 with like 15 HRs and 50 RBIs while he's there

Don't sleep on Sat. It's basically a mesoscale event. Could be nothing or a fast 3". Pretty significant FGEN values across multiple models. And it could come in multiple bursts predawn or daytime. My guess is CT or the HV is the winner, but a few runs have targeted CNJ to NYC. Could be a fun nowcast with low expectations. Contrary to what some say, this would have no trouble accumulating with 0.1" liquid per hour at 33F. Most will probably miss, but if you have the rates it will accumulate.

I'm in 9th, but thank you!

Are you really in 10th grade? That’s a classy post. You wrote what I was thinking.