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Thanks. I hope nothing worse than cold and dry

Next frame it pushes back south again. But its the long range hrrr so who knows

Guess that could be one of two things: 1. Cold arriving slightly later than modeled 2. Depth of the cold in the wedge not as strong as originally modeled Judging by the 850 gradient in VA and obs from Dallas area last night (cold air took longer than expected to move south), my guess would be number 1

HRR has snow line fighting back at 6PM

Morning y'all! 33/12 here. Radar looks good for an early thump!

Morning low 6.1 east side Columbia.

Little dated but the latest

HRRR is drier this run compared to 6Z. WB 12Z HRRR 4pm Sunday. I guess a new way to fail is to be dry slotted as the coastal transfer takes place.

hoping to dodge a bullet here. High-res models have some 30-45mph gusts here during and after the freezing rain. Thankfully the zr amounts arnt scary high on high res. But wouldn't take much. How much zr will be a problem for trees if wind gusts sre 30+?

If you haven't already done it, download mPING app and submit your reports. It is very valuable for GSP and other NWS offices.

Got about a dusting to a half inch here. Pretty disappointing.

Why do you think Kuchie struggles like it does? Honest question Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

HRRR started a bit wetter it looked like but got drier as things went on. Probably part of why it lost thermals faster too.

By 4pm mixing / sleet just about into the City

Sleet line definitely encroaching much more at the height of the storm than at 6z, up to Lanc/Dauphin border by ~3pm. Edit: Although much like 6z, it starts to get beat back right after that, a true battle zone.

12.7 after a midnight high of 19.9.

Let's fucking go

6z euro sounding looks pretty efficient, based on a quick read on pwats and snowfall.

Mixing by 3PM just south of the city with 0.6 fallen as snow at 12:1 ratio 7.5 inches

Some spots are absolutely getting 20-24” by Tuesday morning when it finally ends

interesting, because it seems like it's actually a few degrees colder than forecasted across Arkansas/northern MS/western TN so far.

The 06z HRRR was able to "beat back" the mix line in the late morning period. It doesn't happen on this run, and it is more NAM-like in flying the mix line north. Not nearly as bad as the NAM though.

I have 10-18" for the state. Just post the straight QPF and adjust as necessary in your head based on expected ratio. They're just not good.