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Already at freezing mark here in Queens. Should blow right through mid 30s today. Always use model forecasts of temps with a grain of salt. During heat waves, they're often several degrees too warm and during cold snaps, they're often several degrees too cold. Our thaw continues. Looking into the future: 1. Model guidance is indicating around 1" of snow for most of Saturday morning. Certainly cold enough for it as well 2 Looks to be 2 separate threats for late next week (one around 14th, and one around 16th) Maybe it's possible both blend into one distinct threat for next weekend, or maybe two separate ones? After that, it looks like a trough gets pushed into the west, which is probably our best bet for warm temperatures this month.

I've done the Coney Island polar plunge a few times.

They did that a lot back then with the major storms. I mean, can anyone recall big CAA winds after a damaging LLJ on the front end?

Downplaying seems to work wonders.

Yeah it's kind of interesting that the overall dry/minor drought thing has persisted from the summer, fall, and right into winter even with the various large-scale pattern changes. Usually it tends to snap back at some point.....

I am pretty sure other than tonight's near non event that we are likely done for the year. I know that stings for our Wake County folks who want a makeup event for the dry slot. After the warm up we get into much more difficult territory for a big hit. Obviously it certainly would not be the 20:1 type ratios. It would likely be a paste job (which is good for photos but can cause a lot more issues). I am not sure when RDU will get another shot at 6 or better but it won't be anytime soon (possibly years). I do hope we get some decent severe chances at least in the Spring.

Congrats on nam

Believe it or not….

Yes, still going to be frigid, just not as bad as it looked earlier in the week... Core is north and west, not directly over us.. It will feel worse with the wind and after the thaw Monday through today

Wet bulb temp running 4 degrees below forecast at GSO

seems the ai gfs/euro are 1-3"/2-4 with a little redevelopment of that clipper, but not much support from the gefs at 0z anyway

Time for a refresher for the black ice piles in the parking lots.

Probably not in Feb, but I could see it happening sometime in March.

My problem going off the NWS for Williamsport is the temperature reading is taken at the Montourville Airport. That about 8 miles away from my location. Temperature and weather often differs.

how much did you get in the Jan 25 storm?

What has amazed me is the lack of minor events during the latest cold period. Usually up here, and one of the things I like most about this location, is when it's legitimately cold we are almost guaranteed to at least get minor events. An inch or two from a clipper, a cold front, a lake effect band that makes it... in over 20 years up here I can't remember another significant stretch this cold that was completely totally dry like this without even those minor nickel and dime events.

AI Euro has a nice event next weekend... although I guess it startes earlier than that as SouthCoast said

Not gonna happen IMO.

You might wanna check that station pal. Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport (KMDT) Lat: 40.19°NLon: 76.76°WElev: 312ft. A Few Clouds 28°F -2°C Humidity 53% Wind Speed N 12 mph Barometer 30.25 in (1025.0 mb) Dewpoint 13°F (-11°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Wind Chill 18°F (-8°C) Last update 4 Feb 8:56 am EST More Information: Local Forecast OfficeMore Local Wx3 Day HistoryHourly Weather Forecast Extended Forecast for Elizabethtown PA

interesting, as in, seems like its been trending better. We'll see if it continues to trend more amplified, closer to the coast.

It's there with a similar depiction on the 3k as well. Coating dusting here we come. 3pm - 7pm pass through friday afternoon/eve

How is it looking for the weekend? Core of the cold still western New England into NY?

Nam? Looks pretty stout especially for you to Cape. Also lots of heavy squalls OES.

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Need to get this area to move East for less of a -PNA IMO. Wavelengths are too short in Feb for convection to be hugging this area.