All Activity

The lightning threat needs to continue to tick south.

The HRRRRR says yeah, true

This should be called the little clipper that could. Wild how we’ve gone from 1-3” with lolli’s on 4-5 to now 3-5 with lollis of 8”. With how fast moving this is, I don’t think the heavy snow wording in the forecast is far off. We should rip between 2 and 6 am. Who else is staying up?

BTW seen this on x HRRR vs Actual. Also where are you at Colonel?

20% chance at 50% chance of boom.

The HRRR hated Loudoun but you could see it creeping with each run. Guess we are close to a general consensus now give or take

Now what do you see there that would say thundersnow? (Real question not sarcasm, lol)

It would even get snow to my current location in Charlottesville; though I think I won't be making that risk and I'll drive back tonight. Besides, I have been a good luck charm so far this winter and thought I'd help you guys out.

I just shoveled. Im approaching 3 now.

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 154 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1236 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Light snow accumulations expected across the high terrain of East Tennessee and southwest Virginia overnight into Sunday morning. - Bitter cold will surge into the area for Sunday through Monday morning. Please see the Cold Weather Advisories for additional details. - Warming trend begins Tuesday with above normal temperatures by mid to late week. Conditions will be dry during this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1236 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 A broad upper level trough remains in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS. Shortwave energy translating through the synoptic feature tonight into Sunday will sharpen the troughing as a surface front progresses through the region. Some light ra/sn will occur during the overnight hours as this energy translates through the central and southern Appalachians, however, the greatest probabilities for light snow accumulation will be limited to higher terrain of the East Tennessee mountains and southwest Virginia. Overall, moisture in the DGZ is lacking and better northwest flow does not initiate until the bulk of the moisture is departing the region. Will cover this with an SPS for now, ending it at midnight to allow for the next forecast desk to make any additional considerations. The main concerns will be well below normal temperatures advecting into the region as winds veer NNWly and become gusty behind frontal passage. Temperatures around 20 degrees below normal are largely expected across the region Sunday into Sunday night. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the Cumberland Plateau, southwest Virginia, and our East Tennessee mountain zones starting around sunrise tomorrow morning. The gusty winds and well below normal temperatures will result in wind chill values around zero, to as low as 10 below zero in the highest terrain of the mountains. By late Sunday afternoon, the remainder of the valley locations are introduced to the Advisory as cold air continues to filter into the region. Overnight lows in the low teens to single digits will be widespread. Many valley locations will see wind chills in the single digits to near zero. Cold Weather Advisory products will come to an end shortly after daybreak Monday, when a gradual warming trend is expected into the mid-week as the anomalous troughing ejects northeast and H5 heights slowly recover. For Wednesday night through Friday, the main storm track will be across the northern third of the nation. The fast but more zonal flow will quickly move a series of short-waves with associated frontal boundaries moving across the region. Ensemble cluster analysis shows differences in timing of systems but overall increasing chances of precipitation are expected towards the latter half of the week.

Funny the HRRR playing catch-up and CWG latest update really downplaying the event. Must be a warminista at the desk this afternoon

I‘m going streaking!

38F as I await my first real snowfall at my crib. .

40/29 here. Can't rule out a couple of raindrops initially, but I suspect the north shore starts as snow.

I think this is the best hrrr run for loudoun, and its been more conservative than other models with the SW tail end.

28/21 here now. Temp is dropping even with a weak sw wind

Currently in LA but my son sent me this from Kankakee earlier

Have no reason to BS anyone. That was at 1245. It is still at this moment 43. I never trust my vehicle for accuracy unless my marina office weatherflow and my handheld are the same. It got very warm this afternoon with the SW'erlies. Need wind to swing.

Keeps thundersnow dreams alive as well

Solid 3-4”

Latest HRRR looks legit

Or how about .6 just because

Yeah. Would be nice to have a full blown MJO Ph8 Pattern.

Agreed. Unlike other events, we have cold ground at night, and there's a fresh press of legit continental polar air coming in. The Bittinger mesonet site is already down to 27°, and the Frostburg site is down to 28°.

I wouldn't declare victory over 1 modest snow event. We've been mostly shut out for the past 7-8 years outside a couple snow events.