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Yea this is what you want to see, Op runs don’t have as much meaning this early on.

Just want to avoid long term power issues with 2 kids. Helene was tough enough for all of us.

Yes as stated above plus we’re going to have recon data being included so be prepared for the madness that will follow

Thanks, but this is closer to our area and I work at Ft George G Meade.

Sunday probably 10F w/snow falling... 19F @ 3pm here now

-12 to -16 C in the DGZ is key for the big dendrites, but where are the good UVVs and does high RH overlap? It's tricky. I recall a long-duration event in Jan 1994 w/ sfc temps in the single numbers at the sfc much of the time in ern MA, and it was largely sand. I guess it can be *too* cold at times for fluff!

Don’t worry, we’re good

You would be better suited to go here for your discussion https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/25-philadelphia-region/

A lot of new posters joining the forum

The argument is that modeled output of freezing rain qpf isn’t 1:1 with accretion. Nice photos.

Add to that pretty good ratios.. we're looking at 6"-12" mean right now. 5 days out.

Can you show the folks at DCA the proper way of slantsticking...I swear if I have 2 ft and they have 9.2" my head will explode!

Question about that...single digits would put you right in the middle of the DGZ. What does that mean...arctic sand or super-fluff?

First thing that entered my mind...

Poor forecasting??

Absolutely, although only the hires version which goes out to 60 hours, so really until Friday-ish to get into it's range for Sunday morning (when mixing is really an issue)

While true, the threat for ice for the southern half of Tennessee, especially East Tennessee is very real and trends have not been our friend today. Here's to 18z falling back in line

Yes it still has its superiority there.

Ensembles mean QPF of 0.5-0.9 at 5-6 days lead time is pretty darn good.

I don't get the joke.

I personally think the snow/ice mix line is going to be a little further south near the Wake border.

yeah, collectively let's all try our best to bring this one way north.

Best sledding ever

Man. Watching some live vids of LE in NY right now. They are getting hammered. Heavy snow and 14 degrees. Hopefully a taste of what we will be seeing in a couple of days. Although from completely different synoptics