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TBlizz.

Some of yall on here actually like we just didn't go through an impressive 3 week cold and some snow stretch. It's comical and im laughing. All you can do. What's the saying. This is the only weather you've got so enjoy it. Something like that.

I know, again!!! I know there are times when things are shitty and just not going the right way and it is what it is. But between Jbenedic and A few others, he always takes the model runs that show the worst outcome but never posts anything that shows better outcomes. It's not about wish casting, it's about being realistic and showing both ends of the spectrum.

Who pisses in your Cheerios every day.

It’s going to 50+ Christmas day and even warmer - maybe pushing 60 - Dec 26. Boooooooooo

We’ll see.

Forgot to mention we picked up 1.18” of rain Thursday night/Friday morning. Brings the month to 2.67” here

lol “storm”. Yea go run with that to your friends. Tell them about the incoming storm. Moose fart is more like it.

There’s a late blooming miller b type distribution of qpf showing up on the ensemble guidance. That’s likely how this evolves… A local max at points west of CT river, and then points east in Maine with the weak/late redevelopment. Very weak system overall.

0z GFS & 6z GFS are still showing interesting looks for potential Winter storm chances towards end of the month into the first few days of the New Year. The onset of Blocking really throws models fits until they can see the full impact of the -NAO. If it sets up just right, we could be tracking a meaningful potential storm. The 0z GFS showed this beauty of a chance at the end of its run.

Perfect! We should expect a good storm now. Appreciate the take.

Let's hope so. I want nice weather on New Years Eve and day, for once!

23.6 for the low here this am. Currently 31.5/22.6 at 9:45 am.

Montauk point lighthouse recorded 83.6mph at 11:00 am yesterday. I just looked at the data. Quite impressive

Yeah would not worry about that with how consistent most other models were at 00 and 06z. Looks like it just organizes everything late.

The EPS and GEFS are nothing like the ops. All kinds of red flags on the 6z euro with a 1007 mb low near PWM on the 6z EPS and weaker from the prior run. This is a weak low surrounded by surface highs, with no opportunity to amplify with the mid level flow compressing out of southeast Canada. Shrediola.

LR did not look good overnight. Se ridge connecting with Atlantic ridge while troughs dig into the NW. That stubborn Aleutian ridge is relentless and not helping…

NAM at 72 hrs out…toss that into toilet.

Looking like a high end advisory or low end warning event up this way pair of 4’s on MOS Tues-Weds.

January 2nd nothing on the 31st or January 1st

Looks like 12z Nam won’t be that great for SNE.

Yeah I guess they must of put it down when the ground was wet enough so it all dissolved.

It should be cold enough easily, just need a decent shift south still to keep it all snow otherwise its quick inch to dry slot or light rain

Snowman posting a laughing emoji to MJO filled me with enough Christmas spirit to make Santa's sleigh fly without a jet engine.

Really easy to find. https://weathersats.com/the-evolution-and-future-of-ai-in-weather-forecasting/#:~:text=AI Models Enhancing Numerical Weather,forecasts more frequently and accurately. Normalization and Formatting: Data, often in GRIB or NetCDF formats, is cleaned and structured into consistent grids, frequently at 0.25-degree resolution. Feature Engineering: Raw data is converted into actionable features, such as calculating "feels like" temperature or creating precipitation intensity categories. Data Assimilation for "Real-Time" Updates AI models use advanced techniques to ingest the current state of the atmosphere into the model to begin a forecast: AI-Driven Assimilation: Instead of traditional, slow numerical methods, AI accelerates the integration of new observations by filling in data gaps in regions where measurements are sparse. Hybrid Approaches: Some models, such as NeuralGCM, blend AI with traditional physical simulations to ensure the input data respects atmospheric dynamics. Specialized Adapters: To shift from historical training data to live data, models may use specialized neural network architectures (like U-Net) to map real-time, "messy" data into the same format used for training. Key Technologies Used Neural Networks (CNNs/RNNs): Convolutional Neural Networks analyze spatial satellite imagery, while Recurrent Neural Networks process time-series data. Cloud Platforms: Models are often hosted on AWS, Google Cloud, or Microsoft Azure to manage the high volume of data. Transformers: Used to process long-range dependencies in atmospheric data.