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  2. Multiple models are showing a large MCS traversing Iowa again the morning of the event. Will be interesting to see how the evolution of that affects the development later in the day. Very impressed by the synoptics of this. Powerful upper jet knifing in with very impressive shear profiles over a wide area on the nose of that.
  3. I couldn't chase last Thursday due to being in Cleveland on a family trip (probably would have ended up on the still-tornadic relative junk in western IL anyway), but it'd be nice to have the target not be south of I-80 for once since I rarely can take PTO on short notice from my job.
  4. Newark has reached 90° for the 12th time this year. The old record through June 14th was 10 days. That record was set in 1930 and tied in 1986 and 1991. 1930 finished with 37 90° or above days; 1986 had just 22; 1991 had 41.
  5. Yeah, the HRRR says that parts of our area will have dew points in the upper 50s within the next 2 hours, and I'm very skeptical of that. This is why the HRRR initiates convection later and further east. If it's wrong, storms should initiate somewhere along the Route 15 corridor.
  6. I will shoot rounds into the sky if this happens again here.
  7. Definitely a plume across Central MD. Though it seems lower dews are just above the surface. The Layhill station recently gusted to 25 mph which coincided with a dew point drop to 63. Back up to 67 now.
  8. Both Marginal and slight got expanded way westward for today now in all of tn and north Georgia Alabama and Mississippi .
  9. Today
  10. 63F for SST’s off coast of NH https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44098 For the date that’s normal for south shore Long Island…
  11. UNH buoy east of NH already up to 63 degrees…. That’s a month ahead of schedule… https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44098
  12. Looks to hold off til at least 9
  13. Interesting how tight the gradient is between Louden county and the DC border. Do you think it’ll fill in west or no? Visual sat shows some clearing.
  14. Love the 90 degree day tracking. Who's tracking 70+ degree dew point days? Yesterday was a nice respite but back over 70 here inside the beltway. Yuck. Slightly more tolerable with cloud cover and a breeze
  15. Some of the best lightning shows I've had have come from nighttime elevated cape events! Not a lot of CGs but lots of CC / CA.
  16. This has the one of the most bizarre Euro runs I've ever seen. Develops a tropical storm inland? There's not even a closed low prior to the energy coming ashore. Must be some kind of hybrid thing, but seems mostly warm core. Not even way out in fantasy land!
  17. Going back to day 2 of All Good Now at Merriweather- hot as hell yesterday but when the sun dropped below the tree line at 7:30 evening was fantastic. Whole day was even with the heat. already 88 as we head over there.
  18. 81.7/63 Meh on storms. Can't wait for my 2 rumbles and 0.05" to pass through around midnight while 10 miles north gets 1"+.
  19. As @high risk indicated I am watching dewpoints like a hawk. The HRRR really mixes things out which it is prone to do - but even some models that keep things moist don't produce much today. We'll see - but I still think somebody is in for decent storms.
  20. It seems like everything is expected to be permanent anymore(droughts,floods,etc)until they aren't.
  21. Rumor is that we are perhaps getting a bump to ENH next outlook. Guess we’ll see.
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