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Still thinking we are looking at a 3-6 inch event with some higher localized totals.

yeah that's Kuchera so it takes that into account. We start around 14-16:1 and by the end are toward 25:1.

Counterclockwise rotation of stronger ones points it more n-nnw

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oh, it's a failed phase... absolutely that's what that is... What we've been collectively looking at in the runs for the past few days. Seems this was not taking place when these were prior to 2 days ago, but has since... so be it. It's a stream bi-pass... why that is...? Not entirely certain but it looks like the U component of the navier stokes is too fast for the total wave unification to take form/merge... that's the mathematics in how speed fucks up a phase. It's what this looks like - doesn't have to be the final solution. just sayn'

GSP AFD... https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Psss....stop being pragmatic! It may be contagious!

Hopefully u get a good snow to man... Im hopeful for a 4-6"ish here...

Hey all, sorry to ask again, but trying to decide if it is worth making the trip up. You all know the micro climates of the area better than the models. Thoughts on 4-6” for basically Parkway and 226? I’ve only been up there once and that was for Jan 2022. Not expecting that, but want to see your guys thoughts on my location for this one on the escarpment.

It's bye-bye for Connecticut

That is an awesome question, I'm waiting on a reasonable explanation if there is one.

Maybe we can fujiwara this thing back to us.

What cracks me up a bit, is 2 days ago we were screaming about the extreme look to the digging / closing off of the 500 level, and how rare it was! Well we still see the extreme solution, 525 closed off on the SC coast and we are just assuming it and it's surface reflection are being perfectly modeled & there will not be any surprises? Well, maybe it is being predicted perfectly, but I remain wary?

I dropped from 12.0" to 7.5" Kuchera with the GFS family from 7 am - 1 pm. This rate of fall needs to slow down for the 18z run.

I gotcha! Yeah... I see the Adam's trucks around swain and graham. I only see dot around macon and Jackson

we would probably be 20:1 ratios right?

So, the overall message is this: there is a better-than-even chance of virtually no snow from this system anywhere in our forecast area. the worst-case scenarios (10 percent of the overall model runs) would bring such snows as far west as Morgantown and Uniontown, with warning-level snow in Tucker County. Overall trends favor a continued decrease in probabilities of the higher snow totals, but this of course will be monitored for any changes. National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 149 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Chances of flurries and light snow into tomorrow have increased a bit, with accumulations remaining under an inch in most cases.

We need some wholesale shifts, given that the ensembles are tightening up - expected as the timespan lessens. Basically we need factors that will induce whole ensemble shifts. Not impossible but time is running out.

Cautiously optimistic this will be my first double digit storm of the season. Only has to hold for 4 more days. Leo and i watch...lol

That -37 on the NJ map is probably two nearby locations with lows of -3 and +7.

hoosier was kicked from the board, think it was last winter (?).

Didn't I read someone say that strong cyclones tend to move more N than forecast due to the earth's rotation or something like that? Some people mention land interaction, hugging the coast, etc. (re: like hurricanes). It may have not been in this forum.

The thing to realize about dew points in this range is that the difference in water vapor between 10F and 0F is between bupkis, and slightly less than bupkis. Once you get down to negatives you're in "absolute bupkis" territory. That is to say that radiational cooling (~200 W/M^2) will absolutely overwhelm whatever tiny vapor pressure is being released by sublimination. Long-Wave radiational cooling will tank the temperatures (and therefore dew points) if given the chance to do so. The only thing that will stop radiational cooling is a blockage of the long wave infrared energy to space (ie. Clouds or Fog).