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At this point we want the GEFS to be a miss to the east. 9 times out of 10 the GFS and its ensembles are the last ones to catch on with a storm like this.

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Snowing

.28 ZR and .28 inches of ice accumulation are very different. if .28 inches of liquid precip fell while the temperature was at or below 32, that's .28" of ZR.

The good news here is that a 400-mile north shift would still give us the 2.5" that Savannah gets on this run.

Ready for the AI shellacking

An inch maybe 2 here is probably best case. Likely just flakes in the air

Triple phaser. Great if it works, but as always, delicate with timing. Suspect there will be some changes until Wed. So far, so good on trends. Plenty of cold air, so there's a chance of staying snow even if it gets fairly close. Suspect the main fail modes are a phase miss (and we get some consolation snow a la last Feb) via being too progressive or it overamps and we have to deal with a narrow mixing zone.

Remember that day as well. AC cranking in the car and sweating my ass off in the outdoor section of the gym. Ridiculous.

Snow shower in Norfolk right now!

Not really, in my head I only still have this at about a 20% chance of happening.

Melted down to 1.45" for a meaty 10:1

Just glancing at the 6z and 12z runs, there appears to be good agreement on a 2nd system 200-230 hrs euro ai, gfs, cmc

I'm ready for thunderstorm season.

well it's good to see you doing well my friend

Not bad

It’s been very annoying lol. This storm ruled though, and another 2-3 feels likely later.

I wonder what Louis Uccellini would say about this one?

As long as it not a complete disaster I’m not going to worry if it is a little worse we are 5 days out. It’s going to change multiple times, better or worse. As long as it doesn’t stay worse.

You’ll still have a shot at 20 this afternoon/evening. At least unlike bigger coastal storms, there weren’t a lot of notable subby zones in this. If you got enhancement, it wasn’t at the expense of your neighbors this time around.