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It was the 15th warmest April at MSN and we were able to snag the wettest April on record with 7.26” of precip. Only a T of snow

Beautiful Mothership man!! I'd run a Waffle House out of coffee picking Trey's brain lol. Happy you didn't get totally burned. Great pics!

The following is very interesting as regards the controversial topic of potential significant deep ocean heating from sources independent of AGW such as deep ocean seismic activity: Apr 28, 2026 An anomaly in global sea level rise is explained by deep ocean heating by David Appell, Phys.org Scientists found that up until 2016 that the global mean sea level (GMSL) "budget," accounting for all the energy flows that create sea level rise, was "closed," but since then it has developed a hole in it. The budget is no longer closed, at least according to ocean heat data, down to 2,000 meters. Where was the missing cause for the latest sea level rise? Now a new examination of sea level in the global ocean since 2016 has closed the GMSL budget and brought the sea level books back into order. The new researchappears in the journal Earth's Future. The paper is important for showing that deep ocean heating can no longer be ignored when considering sea level rise and its acceleration. Deep ocean heat's growing role In particular, the researchers, with lead author Anny Cazenave, an emeritus scientist at the Laboratory of Space Geophysical and Oceanographic Studies (LEGOS) at Toulouse, France, found that accounting for sea level rise from expansion due to added heat in the deep ocean, below 2,000 meters, allowed the GMSL budget to be "almost closed" since 2016. "The next step," they write, "will be to determine whether the recent deep ocean change is due to internal climate variability, forced anthropogenic response or a combination of both." https://phys.org/news/2026-04-anomaly-global-sea-deep-ocean.html @donsutherland1, @chubbsand others, your thoughts? Keep in mind that David Appell is not at all an AGW skeptic.

33 at MSP. Widespread frost

Caught a glimpse of some kelvin-helmholtz clouds this morning. Always neat to see, since they seem to dissappear so quickly.

I've got over an inch in the rain gauge and still coming down lightly.

Quarter inch overnight, now at 4 inches. Picked up 3.5 inches the last 75 mins. Still coming down hard

Well. In the CAMs I trust I guess.

Around 500 homes reportedly damaged or destroyed as of this morning including a trailer park wiped out. No reports of deaths but upper teens in injuries so far, most from the trailer park. Night time tornadoes have always been my greatest fear, even with the tools we have today. Going through Hugo for 18 hours, mostly at night kinda gave me PTSD about it. Saw some NWS warnings for 150-185 radar estimated winds and 1 warning that said radar estimated 200mph with that thing. From a weather nerd standpoint, those were 2 beautiful classic Dixie Ally long track sups. As always it just sux afterwards. And a note... These things were very well forecasted and very well warned with NWS giving up to 25 min lead times. Probably saved a lot of lives. The only good thing about big sups all by themselves. They're usually pretty predictable where they are going.

Good rainfall rates appear to be filling in west of here

Did you go 55?I was watching my radar last night of the PDS,that had to be at least a EF3,i was kinda busy and couldnt watch the whole show but that was a nice couplet as it was headed towards Bube in that vicinity

.45" here

I will say, if there’s a bright side, it was a slow soaking rain at my house. The ground should’ve absorbed every bit.

Big bust of an event imo and looking drier and drier by the day going forward. This event just kept trending south until go time. Next event needs to jackpot Pennsylvania 2 days out to be in good shape locally. I don’t see this pattern breaking down any time soon and we’re about to be in extremely rough shape around WNC by summer.

Drought canceled

Alpha gal won’t do his laundry or clean his room

.61

Both days but my oldest daughters is on Sunday . It’s inside at Gampel but you still want it nice . She’s off the books. My other one had two years left there . Moving her home Saturday for summer . Next year she’s in the new apartments where all the shops and restaurants are.

Make that EXTREME DROUGHT

Looks like a gradual warming later in May following this coming cooler period. One thing to watch will be that we have a record +PMM now which is closer to the summer of 2015 El Niño than 2023 which didn’t have the strong +PMM. So it’s possible we get a warmer summer than 2023. But we would want to see how the transition from late May into early June verifies in order to know for sure. Stronger +PMM in summer of 2015 Weaker PMM in 2023 EPS forecast next 15 days

Just picked up 3 inches the last hour. So yup, we are flooded. Still raining at 3 inches per hour.

As expected temps overachieved. Hit 31.

0.05 total and less than a tenth combined with last weeks "rain event." I'm about ready to just give up on trying to get a new yard going. I don't expect any real rain until probably the fall.

Beta gal?

There was a recent paper released on this topic calling it the PCC. But we will probably need the data for this next event included to help develop the new idea. Remember, the climate models missed the sudden rise in temperatures in the spring of 2023. So it’s possible that the current climate modeling technology is developing too slowly to capture the faster changes that have been occurring. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-52731-6 Much recent work focused on whether equatorial Pacific cooling over past decades is driven by anthropogenic effects or arises from internally-generated climate variability, like the IPO. A definitive anthropogenic link to the recent trends would allow us to reliably predict a cooler tropical Pacific. As the tropical Pacific is known to be a climatic pacemaker, for (at least) the near-future this would mitigate global warming via ocean heat uptake and low-level cloud feedbacks. Instead, if the cyclic IPO dominates the recent cooling, we may expect a strong warming when it reverses. In support of the first possibility, we have identified an emerging climate change signal in the tropical Pacific across different observational datasets and we call it the PCC. The PCC has distinctive ocean-atmosphere dynamics that differ from those associated with the IPO. We further demonstrate that the recent trends during the satellite era, which have been the focus of significant attention, result from a combination of IPO and PCC. The emerging PCC SST trend pattern features a narrow band of cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warming elsewhere. This SST change is linked to thermocline shoaling/SSH decreases in the central-to-eastern Pacific and dipole-like changes in zonal surface wind stress. In contrast, the recurrent IPO-driven SST trend pattern is characterized by a meridionally broader cooling in the eastern Pacific, zonal dipole-like thermocline/SSH changes and an overall strengthening of tropical Pacific zonal wind stress. We have shown that these distinct ocean circulation changes are a response to different wind stress patterns. These oceanic responses account for surface cooling in the eastern Pacific, with the thermocline shoaling playing a dominant role in the PCC cooling and enhanced zonal advective cooling mainly driving the IPO-related cooling. While basic geophysical fluid dynamics proved sufficient to attribute the observed oceanic changes to surface wind stress, we have not addressed the origins of the wind stress patterns associated with the PCC and the IPO. New research is needed to elucidate the wind changes, but our leading hypothesis is as follows. In response to GHG forcings39,40 temperature change in the upper troposphere are stronger than at the surface (Fig. S4), increasing atmospheric static stability. Consequently, the initial SST and surface wind response to rising GHGs might not be amplified as efficiently via Bjerknes feedback as is that for the internal modes on interannual to decadal timescales. Given the differences in thermocline and ocean current patterns associated with the PCC and the IPO, the coupled feedbacks related to ocean dynamics are also expected to differ, potentially contributing to distinct climate pattern formations for decadal variability and climate change. Additionally, climate variations outside of the tropical Pacific may influence the tropical Pacific trade winds26,27,41,42,43,44. Further, it has been argued that pronounced decadal-to-multidecadal SST variability in the Atlantic Ocean is also dominated by the response to the same external forcing that the tropical Pacific encounters45. Perhaps the co-occurrence of these long-term trends in different regions is not simply a direct response to rising GHGs but is influenced by inter-basin interactions. More work is needed to disentangle causal relationships among the long-term changes in different basins46,47. Throughout this paper we have taken for granted the widespread assumption that the IPO is an internal mode of the climate system. However, while we worked to distinguish between the recurrent IPO-related decadal variability and the emerging PCC signal, we are open to the possibility that these two may have become coupled together by anthropogenic forcing. They have much in common: shoaling of the thermocline in the east, enhanced upwelling somewhere in the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific and an enhanced zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. It seems reasonable to postulate that if the response to radiative forcing is the emerging PCC pattern seen here, then it could initiate coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that favor a negative IPO state that also has an enhanced SST gradient24. This might explain why the most recent IPO swing has been extreme and robust (Fig. S1b). If so, this suggests that in nature forcing is projecting onto natural modes of variability, while it is not clear whether climate models can reproduce this behavior. A new perspective on how internal variability interacts with the climate change signal will be needed in future studies.