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Lol

Stormnet looks thoroughly less enthuastic about tornado chances than it did yesterday, with the highest being in central-ish Indiana, not sure what it's using to model but that's a strange thing to see.

only 71 here. nice day

History has shown (at least to me living in EMA) that depending on a warm front to break through and clear us out to set us up later is a lot to ask. I can’t even count the times we had solid overcast while I’m desperately wishing the clouds to break and the sun to shine while NYC and the region get pounded..I acknowledge I’m admittedly not exactly in a severe hot bed where I live but that’s been the scenario 8 out of 10 times here.

Our HS is tonight-couldn't be better. (need this for next yr when mine graduate!)

Gorgeous day out again! My kids graduation shoulda been outside.

June 16 1992: A total of 27 tornadoes touch down across Minnesota, the second most in Minnesota history. The communities of Chandler, Lake Wilson, Clarkfield and Cokato are badly damaged. 80 million dollars worth of damage would occur, and Presidential disaster declarations would be made for many counties. 1989: Frost develops across Minnesota with crops destroyed on high ground in southeast Minnesota. Preston got down to 32. For Tuesday, June 16, 2026 1806 - A total eclipse of the sun was viewed from southern California to Massachusetts. (David Ludlum) 1917 - The temperature soared to 124 degrees at Mecca climaxing the most destructive heat wave of record in California history. (David Ludlum) 1944 - A tornado in Sioux City, IA, traveled an odd course. It spun in one place for about twenty minutes, made a U-turn, traveled southeast for about three miles, then traveled south, east, north, and finally east again. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Temperatures soared above 100 degrees in the Upper Midwest, reaching 104 degrees at Lincoln, NE. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 96 mph at Valley City, ND, and baseball size hail near Red Oak, IA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - After a brief respite, hot weather returned to the Northern High Plains Region. Late night thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Polson and north of Lake Seeley. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Daytime thunderstorms produced severe weather from northern Florida to the Middle Atlantic Coast. The thunderstorms spawned eight tornadoes, and there were 138 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 87 mph caused twenty million dollars damage at Columbia SC. Strong thunderstorm winds killed one person at McLeansville NC. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 16 Tue National Fudge Day 16 Tue Islamic New Year 16 Tue Bloomsday 16 Tue International Day of the African Child 16 Tue Arborist Appreciation Day 16 Tue International Day of Family Remittances 16 Tue International WaterFall Day 16 Tue World Sea Turtle Day 16 Tue Fresh Veggies Day 16 Tue Muharram

Oh no the bermuda triangle death algae

0.15" of rain yesterday evening. Was a very nice day. Today will be cooler with highs in the 60's, and hopefully a very wet day tomorrow. Running behind in the precip curve.

Records: Highs: EWR: 98 (1981) NYC: 96 (1994) LGA: 96 (1991) JFK: 92 (1962) Lows: EWR: 52 (1946) NYC: 52 (1927) LGA: 55 (1961) JFK: 52 (1965) Historical: 1794: A frost was reported at Mansfield, MA, repeating a previous occurrence made on May 17th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1806 - A total eclipse of the sun was viewed from southern California to Massachusetts. (David Ludlum) 1895: Heavy rain fell in portions of central Arkansas, damaging several roads and bridges. At Madding, east of Pine Bluff, 6.12 inches of rain fell in six hours. 1906: On this date through the 17th, a tropical storm moved north out of the Caribbean, through the middle Florida Keys and exited into the Atlantic near West Palm Beach, gaining hurricane strength over the Atlantic. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1917 - The temperature soared to 124 degrees at Mecca climaxing the most destructive heat wave of record in California history. (David Ludlum) 1921: Yosemite Valley, CA received a trace of snow, their latest on record for this late in the season. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1924: A short, but intense heat wave in Wichita Falls, TX reached its peak on this date. The maximum temperature was 111°. This followed a high of 110° on the previous day, and was followed by 108° the next two days. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1944 - A tornado in Sioux City, IA, traveled an odd course. It spun in one place for about twenty minutes, made a U-turn, traveled southeast for about three miles, then traveled south, east, north, and finally east again. (The Weather Channel) 1964: A late season snowfall left a trace of snow over all of northern Maine. Guttenberg, IA set a record low for June with 40°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1965: On the 16th and 17th -Severe floods occurred in Colorado as 12 to 14 inches of rain fell on portions of the east slopes of the Rockies and the plains east of Denver. 14 inches fell in just three hours at Palmer Lake and Larkspur, CO with 12 inches at Castle Rock. A wall of water as high as 20 feet roared down both branches of Plum Creek into the South Platte River near Littleton and through Metro Denver. Flood waters spread to a width of a half mile in Denver. The citizens of Denver received reports of the flooding to the south and had a few hours to initiate evacuation procedures along the South Platte River greatly limiting the loss of life. Around midnight, the torrent crested at 25 feet above normal with the flow exceeding 40 times normal. This is the record flood on the South Platte and many of its tributaries. Many homes and businesses were destroyed. Damage totaled $230 million dollars. 8 people were killed. (Ref. Denver, CO Weather History) 1972: Agnes was first named by the National Hurricane Center on June 16, 1972: It would go on to make landfall between Panama City and Apalachicola, Florida, on the afternoon of June 19. Hurricane Agnes would later cause catastrophic flooding in the mid-Atlantic states, especially Pennsylvania. Agnes caused over 100 fatalities. 1975: New York City--Two children were killed and seven injured by a single bolt of lightning when they took refuge from rain under a tree in Central Park. 1987 - Temperatures soared above 100 degrees in the Upper Midwest, reaching 104 degrees at Lincoln, NE. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 96 mph at Valley City, ND, and baseball size hail near Red Oak, IA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - After a brief respite, hot weather returned to the Northern High Plains Region. Late night thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Polson and north of Lake Seeley. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Daytime thunderstorms produced severe weather from northern Florida to the Middle Atlantic Coast. The thunderstorms spawned eight tornadoes, and there were 138 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 87 mph caused twenty million dollars damage at Columbia SC. Strong thunderstorm winds killed one person at McLeansville NC. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1992: A devastating tornado ravaged portions of southwest Minnesota. Commonly referred to as the Chandler-Lake Wilson tornado, this tornado destroyed more than 75 homes, with another 90 houses, 10 businesses, a church, and a school damaged. In addition, the tornado caused over $50 million in property damage, resulting in more than 40 injuries and one fatality. Based on a detailed damage assessment by the National Weather Service, it is estimated this F5 tornado packed winds over 260 mph as it tore through the residential area of Chandler, Minnesota. This was the only F5 tornado to occur in the United States in 1992. 2001: Lightning struck after rain had ended and the sun was shining killing a teenage girl south of Wakefield, Quebec Canada; just outside of Montreal. The same thunderstorm shocked 11 soccer players and spectators in a Montreal park. Though some were burned, none were seriously injured. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2008: Western and central New Yorkers experienced a rare widespread large and damaging hail event. For two hours, cell after cell rolled along a similar path across southern Niagara, southern Orleans, Monroe, Wayne and northern Cayuga counties many of which had hail of up to an inch-an-a-half diameter. Then more thunderstorms that formed later produced hail up to two inches in diameter, a rare event for western New York. One thunderstorm formed over Grand Island intensified as it moved southeast across the densely-populated northern and eastern suburbs of Buffalo. The golf-ball sized hail damaged thousands of automobiles as well as windows, roofs and awnings on homes. At the Amherst Middle School, the hail pierced 1200 to 1500 holes in the skylight roof. While property damage was significant, the damage to area crops was devastating. The hailstones pummeled fruits leaving divots and cracks. Vegetable plants were stripped of their leaves. Apples, peaches and pears that were not stripped from the tress and could have been sold for eating fresh will have to be sold for processing at a substantially lower cost because of being misshapen and bruised. The U.S. Department of Agriculture issued a Disaster Declaration for Erie, Genesee, Monroe, Ontario, Orleans and Wayne counties. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2014: The Pilger tornado was the most intense of the family of tornadoes produced by the supercell. This tornado developed about 6 miles southwest of the town of Pilger and moved northeast, directly striking the city. Initially narrow and relatively weak, the tornado significantly intensified as it neared the Elkhorn River and moved into town. The tornado cut a path through town, destroying numerous homes and businesses. The tornado was responsible for 1 fatality in the town of Pilger and several injuries before moving northeast and weakening. During a weakening period, the tornado again intensified, producing additional violent damage 4 miles northeast of Pilger. Finally, the tornado narrowed, weakened, and turned east, wrapping around the developing Wakefield tornado before dissipating.

Eh, this is a slight risk day. It's not like we were staring down a D3 MOD risk with a CIG2 hatch 60% or something that fizzled.

I've been in a few NOAA/NHC/FEMA webinars recently where the speakers have made observations where the AI guidance appears to not overhype, but rather really juice up convection in the warm sector. It's entirely possible these AI models need more events in their knowledge base before they can beat the traditional NWP. Just my observation. Others are welcome to chime in.

74 / 44 and very nice out. Hovering near normal overall the next 10 days with thursday surge of heat ahead of the trailing front. Moderation warmer once to 6/24 and the close / open of next month where more heat pushes expanding east.

Went on a morning hike of Harper’s Ferry MD side. Beautiful, got there at 6:30am and avoided the crowds.

IMO, this one is headed for the history books. I think it ends up as the strongest El Nino event on record

I think it’s just “common” knowledge to those of us in N IL. Although if there is a setup that could slam that WF north, it’d be this one.

Little known?

Reminds me of Dec 00. Blech lol.

Note: They also reported a third yesterday, so that's up to at least 5 from this system. Coupled with the 6 earlier in the month, that's a pretty hefty number. Fortunately, nothing too strong.

No real heat for at least a week... a bit AN but no torch

Yeah summer over UFN.

We are going to need a new classification system for this one. Maybe something like a super east to west basin event to reflect how spread out the record warmth is. Currently getting near to record breaking SSTs for the week of June 10th for developing El Niños using the traditional ONI from 1+2 all the way over to Nino 4. 1997-1998 was the previous record holder for east based events. 2015-2016 was the leader for Nino 3.4 and 4. 2023-2024 tied 2015-2016 in Nino 4. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ June 10th 10JUN2026 26.1 2.7 28.3 1.6 29.2 1.5 30.1 1.3 07JUN2023 26.1 2.6 28.0 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.5 0.7 10JUN2015 25.5 2.0 27.8 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.8 0.9 11JUN1997 26.1 2.8 27.8 1.1 28.4 0.7 28.9 0.1 At peak strength all-time Nino region warmest SSTs bolded with ties 29NOV2023 24.2 2.1 27.2 2.0 28.7 2.0 30.3 1.7 18NOV2015 23.8 2.0 28.0 2.9 29.8 3.0 30.3 1.7 26NOV1997 25.8 3.7 28.4 3.3 28.9 2.2 29.3 0.7 03DEC1997 26.2 3.9 28.2 3.1 28.8 2.1 29.2 0.6

Yeah, SPC is taking the typical NE approach in stopping short of our lat/lon for slight and period 5s. But I can imagine that will need to be extended NE.