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Is 77F at 2am for DCA the highest ever for Winter?

The crazy thing is the 76 observed on the 3am hourly at DCA would be a record April high for that hour at that site, and we’re still in the first half of March.

I mean is a 75 mile shift south too much to ask for? JFC

Nothing like a good pre-spring downpour mixed with a little thunder to get this ol weenie pumping! Let’s get those lawns nice and swampy baby.

Killer tornadoes, Moderate Risks, record warmth, flooding, High Wind Watches, more tornadoes?, a blizzard, a flash freeze, and Leprechaun’s that look like Farrah Fawcett.

Euro doesnt have a torch in the long range after this cold shot coming up. 30s and 40s with some 50s.

Goodness gracious. This is shaping up to be one of the most memorable Marches (March’s?) in quite sometime in the lower Great Lakes.

i’ll leave this right here…

39/39 with light rain here in the valley. Its 50-55F with dews of 50F at 1,500-2,500ft. Wild inversions continue.

See you tomorrow.

Getting these impressive Winter temp spikes. Remember the Jan 26, 2024 80F at DCA

last 5 days for DCA will have highs of 76, 76, 84, 86, and 77 (at least). Prob won't see a stretch this warm again until April.

DCA will get a high of at least 76F for the day.

Icing on the cake. I had already come to terms with the last flakes, being the last of the season. We take the win.

Exactly. This wouldn't be more than a moderate 2-4" snowstorm even with cold temps in Jan, as there's just not enough precip and with the elevated surface temps and higher sun angle this one will be unlikely to put down more than 1" on grassy surfaces anywhere. But temps in the 70s and lower 80s yesterday has nothing to do with whether or not we can have a snowstorm the next day. If it turns cold enough and there's enough snowfall intensity, it'll accumulate easily even at midday.

Nice thunderstorm here!

As always, accumulation rate = snowfall rate - melting rate, where based on experience (and some deep knowledge of heat transfer and physical chemistry phase changes) I'd guesstimate the melting rate in mid-March is about 0.2-0.3" per hour during the day (say 10 am to 4 pm) with temps around 32F, so with temps in the mid-30s, I'd expect a melting rate around 0.4-0.5"/hr on the colder surfaces, so we'd need snowfall rates around 0.5"+ per hour (0.05" QPF/hr) to see accumulation and rates just don't look to be that high, which is why I don't expect much accumulation. On the flip side, if we can get a thump of snow for an hour or so with ~1" per hour rates, that can get us ~1/2" of snow on the ground and not everyone realizes this, but once there is snow on the ground, that snow is by definition at 32F (at most), meaning subsequent snowfall is no longer melting at the rates above, which are due to a combination of elevated surface temps and elevated air temps with indirect sunlight - the elevated surface temps are a bigger factor in melting (just look at how much more snow melts as temperature increases with the same insolation level, like we saw over the past couple of weeks after the blizzard) - so I'd expect those melting rates to come down to maybe 0.1-0.2" per hour once there is accumulated snow on the ground. I've never seen anyone truly quantify these melting rates (maybe someone in some research paper has done it?), so these are at best educated guesses - would love to know what they are under various surface temp/surface type/air temp/insolation factor (vs time of day), etc. If I had gotten a PhD in meteorology instead of chemical eng'g, I could see wanting to have done research on such a thing.

Snow should fly today, but sticking and accumulating will be a whole other story. Will be cool to see after some 80° days. It’s not super uncommon. Just too marginal with warm grounds to amount to anything. Snow tv at its finest

There's a whole laundry list of "winter's over" posts from December-January by all of the usual suspects. We know they'll make similar calls this next winter or the next and will be spot on, but it's not exactly bold to be in the warm & snowless camp when that feels like an increasing majority of our winters. It's like going all in on bonds and saying I told you so when they return 4% after a year lol

0z gfs has 50” in door county lol.

… I…. How? I’m not even gonna bother looking at its evolution. That’s insanity under 24 hours out

I'm more-so in awe at the bold call at play. So you don't think the anafront snow will stick in mid 30s daytime March temperatures following an 85 degree day? Simply brazen prediction.

Atlantic City got 20" in one storm couple weeks ago lol. I kind of feel bad he has such a need for attention

Sometimes, you have to use common sense and not rely on the models. How many times have you seen snow immediately following 80 degree days? I can't think of any. If I happen to be wrong, I will personally come back here and apologize to you all. However, I know it's not going to happen, so I'm done posting on this thread because it's really unnecessary. Good night to everyone.

So all the weather models are wrong? 12 hours out? You're the type of guy that will come back on here tomorrow and say you were wrong if it does snow tho right?