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EPS

that sounds nearly picture perfect what we are likely seeing this weekend. Downsloping may "save" the Eastern region.

This storm sucks.

Now see why Ucinelli have to go and say that today? Lol I mean he co-wrote THE book on these things so it makes you wonder...I mean that would be a massive modeling fail if it happens.

Yeah, though the closer you are to the mountains, the deeper the cold wedge is likely to be. Once we get close enough I can start posting some BUFKIT profiles for folks that want them.

I don't see any models showing mixing issues until the main show is over so I don't agree that it's a big concern now but we need the primary low to stop trending north now, there's less wiggle room than there was 24 hours ago. Still a lot of solutions on the table/

Thanks, Gemini.

Holy wow - I cannot believe this map because I've never seen temperatures like that around here. In my neck of the woods the lowest I've ever seen the temperature was 1 degree.

My wife has a Wal-mart pick up today. We should be good Milk and peanut butter.

Rutherford up to Wilkes look like ground zero for ZR with the way it trending. We gotta pray for sleet or we are dealing with serious powergrid issues.

Big takeaway is NWS is leaning on euro not handling shallow cold air well at all especially in the valley .

Tallied up the amount of storms that are too north, too south, and misses (under 6in across NOVA). 0z 5 Maxes to the south 14 Maxes to the North 3 Misses North; 1 Miss South 12z 5 Maxes to the South 15 Maxes to the North 9 Misses North Unfortunately the data pretty strongly reflects the assumption that the probability decrease is caused by mixing concerns. Lets hope for future runs that 9 misses north comes down.

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/crayon-style/id629860673

Arnt the lakes frozen over? seems like models have the air warm up as it goes over the lakes.

Euro and NAM completely lost the ice solution up until 12-24 hrs out. Seems like GFS and RGEM wouldn't budge but got wrote off.

Anyone got individual eps members?

Because the wave is phasing far west of our typical ideal for a coastal storms.

I had an inch and half of ice back in 2003 when I lived in the Midlands of SC that went on for like 2 days, and the 2nd day we lost power. I don’t ever wanna see that much ice again in my lifetime. I’ll take some cold rain over that.

ha- its all good are you young? They do have a visual- its off to the sides, left and right or just below the forward facing camera

The EPS is probably closer to the Euro AI than it is the OP Euro, temp wise.

I remember that one well. It was forecasted to be a real snow storm after so many ice storms... but the precip started as sleet and remained that way the whole time from Rockville south.

I got 1.6" snow .95 freezing rain Sleet predominant or mixed 10 AM to 11 PM Saturday. Wind gusts low 20s at height of freezing rain.... Would be a catastrophe if that comes to pass. Actually terrified of the 100'+ oak trees around my house in this instance.

I’m glad this has trended north for us, I just think there are still a lot of caution flags.

I think a met posted recently that the Euro surface temps are "broken" and have been way too cold.

Dang, that is SUPER aggressive from Horst! Love to see it.