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We'll get a piece of this one. But it should have been ours. Shame the north country is weaseling its way to another win. Great winter so far up there.

It's every FUCKING YEAR now

The ICON appeared to be very cold compared to others models. Less of the east sees warming.

1/22 18Z Total QPF / Snow/Sleet (10:1) NAM (84H): 1.2 / 9.7 RGEM: 1.1 / 7.0

Mount Holly slightly bullish for here for now- 4-8" Sat night, then snow/sleet Fr rain on Sunday, snow could be heavy at times. Kinda hedging their bets.. seems like they don't really see enough of a consensus among the guidance. Haven't read their AFD yet. First things first- Getting a couple bourbons in me lol.

I've always wondered how much Environment Canada uses their own models for forecasting vs the other globals that are available to them. Are the Canadian models tuned for their geographic location? CMC/RGEM is an outlier right now, so I wouldn't look too much into that until there's agreement. Usually the NAM is good with picking up those warm profiles but you need to wait to 48 hours before go time to get that data accurately modeled.

Icon looks nasty.

Wish I had the willpower to do that! And this site sometimes… Certainly feels like one bad run always starts a trend.

Probably a bad sign that I'm following this thread again...

Early. No changes at all.

Recent system this past Sunday/Monday a great example. Had Cape Cod modeled as rain for the majority of precip with no significant accumulations. Ended up with a widespread 4-6".

Bitching for 4yrs eventually pays off? Lets gizzo!

Agreed about the changeover issue being overplayed, but I'm just being greedy and looking to maximize this storm. Trying to avoid 20 miles north of me getting 19" while I'm stuck at 10-11"/slotted/snizzling. Damn, just realized I'm channeling Ray.

It would be later on that, At that hr it’s just getting into Mass.

Its' all about trends now...we are aware of the mixing gradient

Good thing RGEM stands for Right-GEM

So verbatim I'm sitting in a cold stream of air with 20-30mph winds with zr falling for 12+ hours. Nice

Where do you see 2 feet?

UKie is currently showing a weaker secondary that doesn't really get going until it is south of Cape Cod.

Since I signed up about 20 years ago I have read SO many people say this very thing leading up to winter storms. Not to say it will happen, but don't ever underestimate warm air intrusion. It often extends farther than we want to believe.

My main concern (possible failure mode) here in Wichita, is how these two waves impact us. The first piece of energy kicks out Friday night and will initially need to saturate dry air. How long does that take and how impactful is this initial wave? Should we underperform, that leaves us with the 2nd wave, (the ejection of the main ULL) which could miss us to the South and East. By failure mode I mean, failing to hit the upper echelon of some of modeled totals. Think we're in for a solid Warning criteria snow regardless. Getting closer to kicking this thing off!

Maaaan you ain't lying. I think I'm reaching that point today. It's like everything gets more complicated, can barely keep up with what "trend" we need to look for, all the "we need this to do that but not to fast, or slow, or north, or south...oh now here's another fail scenario"....bruh I'm tired. That's why any prospect of tracking a storm for next weekend just makes me like ugghhh I wanna just turn it all off and wait till next Friday, lol Again...TIRED Ninja'd by @SnowenOutThere on that sentence, lol

#dreamjob

True. But this is a fresh injection of Arctic air. It's not cold air. It's Arctic, on top of that. It hasn't been sitting around for a couple days. At this point, it's being drawn down Friday night. We might have some pingers, we're not going to change over to sleep or freezing rain plus a gps just when south now. And we have a very strong, high pressure versus the storm

Ah my bad, guess the map just showed freezing rain for funsies. Though with a layer that warm I'd think freezing rain isn't unlikely?