All Activity

https://x.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/2117331616821633301

All time El Nino... 76-77 Montreal...

bncho, the voice of reason.

RIP to the NAM. Retired today. Where will we get our blown-out-of-proportion snow total maps from this year?

What does your modeling method show for December?

We may keep this stretch of weather well into the second half of the month...obviously with some "cooler" periods with any weak fronts. But its pretty crazy being in November and a cold FROPA still results in temperatures above climo

At least it's a good zzzz

This weather has been too good for too long. I'm afraid of what might happen when the rubber band snaps. That said, damn it's nice out

0.01% chance...

High of 79, AC is on again.

heh, it'd be nothing shy of marvelous if in the face of all ... nothing exceptional worth turd of mention actually happened through April. that would be sooo awesome

heh ... ever get the sense we'll be in here 71 days from now still assessing all these ways to get a winter outside the windows while we're rolling up seasonally blunted heat wave after heat wave...

I saw mine doing that the other day. We have had 3 freezes here, but maybe they had seeded

We could definitely tap a small piece of the residual tropical moisture plume feeding north along the stalled front on Friday which lead to the historic Florida rainfall and flooding.

This is almost like a summer heat wave .. only shave 20 to 25 off the maxes. It's like 94/100/100/92 then a front, only 74/80/80/72

I'm not gonna lie, I don't mind the warmth right now given that I have to pay for oil.

Need to see it sustained...it keeps trying to do normalize, then reverts back...

hmm... We made 74 for a high T today, with considerable cloud contamination. Just looking at the sounding for tomorrow. With less critical ceiling level RH ( meaning more sun), a warmer starting T/launch, and an even warmer mixing column ... yeeeeah, 80 is possible.

Omg why is it so hot out

The new Euro Weeklies remain mild and even are very slightly warmer than yesterday for weeks 2-3. Regarding the cooler weeks 4-6 vs earlier weeks that we were just discussing, they’re still significantly cooler than weeks 2-3 but came in a little milder overall vs yesterday’s run, especially weeks 4-5. Week 6 is similar to yesterday (only very slightly milder).

WB latest weeklies indicate that the last week of November will be wet. If the pattern is still bone dry at the end of the month, or there is still no rain in sight by then, I will start to get nervous about the active southern jet forecast for winter.

I have had two and 13 nights in the 30s but I’m way up in western Avery county. .

don’t interact with the guy. I’m pretty sure he just likes to bait for engagement

The GEFS PNA prog for the 1st 1/2 of Nov once again looks impressively positive for the 8th day in a row: Looking at only Ninos of +1.4+ (per RONI), there have been 10 others since 1950 but only one (1997) had a +PNA dominant first half of Nov like GEFS says 2026 is going to have. GEFS is suggesting ~+1.1 (after adjusting a little downward for bias) for 11/1-15/2026. How does this compare to the other 10 actual 11/1-15? Only 1997 was the least bit similar: 2023: -0.1 2015: -0.2 2009: -0.3 1997: +1.2 1991: +0.1 1986: -0.9 1982: -0.3 1972: +0.1 1965: -0.5 1957: 0.0 I wonder if this strong early Nov +PNA in 2026 is largely due to how E based it is being that 1997 was so E based early. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii