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Yep...right off of the ORH hills....adiaphallic heating.

lol 2 inches of sleet. That’d be something.

Outlier.

Slightly more confluence too so you’re gonna be absolutely slamming some big fronto.

Finally a Map I get behind! Hahaha. In ALL Seriousness, and guys PLEASE, for once F-ing time be serious with me, this is $1000 of changing things / losing a gig / losing rehearsals for the major concert Wednesday / on and on: WHAT are the chances of 15” + for me?

12z Nam is def colder run vs 6z. HRRR at max run looks ok as well out in Tennessee. So far good trends. 6z Euro tick colder as well.

I could see -17 or -18 in GRR if everything goes right. Deep cold airmass, healthy snow cover, and minimal moderation from LM. So not quite the all-time record, but maybe the top 10 coldest on record?

It will figure it out by hour 12 maybe

We might go from a huge two-day snowstorm with over 16 inches in NC to just spotty sleet.

theres the amplified look. Not shocked to see the extent of the mix considering the look at the 500 level

Sunday morning 7am per the NAM at DCA

NAM Looks liek 6-10 @ HR 84 but next frame would introduce mixing

Time for another wild run of the 12z NAM. Round 1 has a strong WAA push that generates a lot of precip and it's slower to exit, making some areas of extreme NW AR and NE OK have 12" of snow with just the first round. Southern MO, NW AR, NE OK all get over a foot this run.

That's some weird output. No way DCA gets more snow than NW AA county. It's the NAM at range for you...

NAM

Southern trend with total QPF...but less overall it seems for NC

The problem with this is that the low pressure isn't that strong overall mb wise so it transfers pretty quickly to a coastal low, which will limit totals this far north. Further south into Ohio should still get some goods before the transfer. Fluid situation tho with Miller b's.

Which model is this? The NAM?

12/17/20 might be a pretty good one at the end. Hopefully the snow comes in better than that one did-I ended up with 8” but was hoping for 12+ but the snow shield broke up so the warm mid level air advanced faster.

Just glad to see the NAM not phase as readily, not concerned about the surface at the edge of its range.

My weatherunderground says 13.2" for my place...seems fairly reasonable

Sleet line is fast approaching here, but what a thump!

It would've been if it went out a few more panels.

I don’t really believe it, but the NAM does offer a way out for a lot of us to miss the worst of the ice. It’s certainly possible.

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