All Activity

I can hear lots of thunder offshore St. George Island. The eastern feeder band should be hitting SGI in the next half hour.

October NAO has reversed for the Winter the last 5 times, last 5 years. This is on top of an already established opposite correlation 1948-2020. Through the 25th, Oct NAO looks to be ~+0.80-0.90

This radar image from recon seems to refute any signs of ERC that microwave indicated a few hours earlier

Sucks. Someone needs to post how many weekends have featured some kind of precipitation going back to like June. Feels like a lot of them have.

Way too warm today

exactly at kick off time for the Jets game at 1 on Sunday - how many Sundays in a row now has it rained for the Jets and Giants games in NJ ? Giants are at Washington it will probably be pouring down there for the entire game

Not sure about the microwave pass but radar improving is mostly an artifact of the storm entering radar range. Beam height (per RadarScope) is still about 30,000 ft near the South eyewall so it's just entering the range where the whole eyewall can be seen

My first winter in the Bay Area was pretty underwhelming both as far as snow and opportunities to get out there. Was certainly jealous of looking to VT and seeing all the epic powder shots from last year. I was able to take advantage of the best storm of the season as well as a great spring tour in the Kirkwood area, both of which were highlights. As my kid gets older and my wife wraps up her medical training, I'm hoping to pair that with what will hopefully be a much better season. I definitely miss the vibes of winter in New England though. It can be tough to get excited for snow when its 65 degrees and sunny every day...boring

Updated Excessive Rainfall Outlook from the WPC. Folks need to be aware of the Flooding possibility with this storm.

Radar (and the microwave pass posted above) did show some signs of degrading and possibly starting an EWRC, but radar has since improved.

That’s the next priority, as much as the wife thinks buying new furniture is, ha.

Some of the radar hallucinations are due to attenuation.

This hurricane must have body insecurity issues with everything that people have said about it in the last couple of days It looks pretty normal for a Category 3 hurricane, and unfortunately does not appear to be weakening yet

The last 10 days of the PDO have had a decent rise overall though nothing extreme:

Recon doesn't show degradation. I'm not sure what people are seeing. It's still generating very strong convection near center. It looks very steady to me.

Destin has a bunch of dense housing and touristy buildings/hotels right on/near the beach too, one of the more vulnerable areas that's more urban

Based on radar it could be a bit more of an eyewall meld than a true EWRC (which is sometimes common as it approaches land and the friction causes it to tighten up a bit) but it's definitely degrading which is welcome timing.

Not a great day no matter how you slice it. More a question of how bad will it be.

Ah yes. Better indeed. Nonetheless, speedy recovery my friend!

I'm sensing a cognitive disconnect here. We keep hearing about supposedly-good shifts in CC trends, for years now, and yet this most-important trend - the end result - seems to be unaffected by these shifts:

Destin over towards Miramar Beach are going to take the brunt of this one. The location of the landfall along with the direction of the coastline will funnel a lot of water into those areas.

Agreed. Just have to see how it plays out…but at the moment there’s model support. That’s all that can be said currently .

You know you have reached weather nerd status when you notice high clouds rolling in and say to yourself, those must be from the hurricane, then look at a satellite pic to confirm. Hope we get some juice from this thing

I agree with the portion that points out the forward motion direction (NNE) aligning with the shear vector reducing its impact on the system. Sure, it may eliminate any chance of strengthening, but a massive drop in strength prior to landfall looks pretty unlikely at this point.