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Yes MU mentioned how they and LNS experienced this. Talked about how compressional warming can often be maximized right ahead of a cold front.

I guess the big question going forward this winter is if we can at least get one +TNH month like we got last January. Prior to that we had the much more productive one in January 2022. But that had the great -WPO block which was able to weaken the Pacific Jet along with the MJO 8. Last January the Pacific Jet kept going leading to big Southern Stream storm suppression with the kicker troughs coming in to Western North America. Then the question then becomes if we do get a +TNH interval, can the jet relax enough for some -WPO blocking in tandem to maybe allow some semblance of a benchmark track to develop for at least a few weeks?

Where are you getting your big warmup? Late month maybe.

Just wondering... Has DT even NOT been bullish for December and January? I do not think I have ever read one of his outlooks for winter where he said it would be mild and miserable for snow lovers. I'm very worried about the Pac jet, so we will see.

I hope you all stayed as safe as possible during this epic wind event. what a bust

Full boredom ahead. And a huge warmup

Yes. I agree with the vast majority of what you are saying.

Reminder on why threads for NYC CP may be started below advisory level expectations. From a weather underground publication - Nov 1 2025: 6. You should pay close attention to light snowfall forecasts too: It's human nature to focus on the snow forecasts with high amounts, or just the highest total in, say, a "three to six-inch" forecast. But don't underestimate the hazard from light snow. According to a study released in 2019, 54% of deadly snow-related traffic accidents in the U.S. occurred where snowfall was too light or didn't last long enough to prompt the National Weather Service to issue a winter storm warning or winter weather advisory.

I think it's more apt to say it was a decent fail by the models that were promoting it. The NAM had this less than 40mph winds 2 days ago for example.

lock 'em in

Just a little slop here

I was commenting on this a while back. That NE PAC warm blob is more a function of the forcing over the WPAC region. It really isn’t a stand-alone forcing or feedback mechanism like the subtropical and tropical WPAC warm pool east of Japan. So we just saw the greatest fall drop since the fall of 2019.

We as a science of modeling are not good beyond two weeks... missing out on the extremes potential. Most on here will see marked improvements later this century. Todays D6 is about as good as the D1 when I was kid in the late 50s.

Hold me.

I think the strat may offer some assistance late season, but if it doesn't, all bets are off. I will posting my thoughts early next week....a great deal of time is spent addressing many of the CC related issues that @bluewaveraises.

This thing blew moose balls! What a fail. Done with wind.

Yeah there’s some showers coming this way…interested to see if there’s any frozen mixed in.

I am referring you the attribution aspect and what it means moving forward, but will leave it at that because nothing constructive will come of it.

Not sure I really called anything. The only thing I didn’t like was that the peak of the wind was all overnight. We’ve had good wind at night before, but this was more of a quick in and out impulse. That and the models kept backing off on the 850/925 winds the past couple of days. It’s tough to mix down what isn’t there.

Gust maybe near 50mph briefly. Looked meh ever since Tuesday.

some light snow mixing in with rain here at 1200', 37f

That’s breakfast Sorry the power is out. Def howled last night. Woke me up 3-4 times from the noise.

It was windy but nothing atypical with a cf passage ushering in new airmass

Yea it was the worst short term fail . Dendrite nailed it

The NAM always finds a way to drive those warm fronts near you. Tough place to forecast. CAD city to boot.