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One of the bigger beach erosion events of the 2020s so far.

The big story as we head into October is that the 500mb ridge is setting up further south than the recent seasonal models were forecasting. This has been the case each month going back to May and June. The October El Nino ridge is typically located over the EPO region of NW Canada and Alaska. The forecasts drop this ridge down into the CONUS at least for early October. We’ll need to see what happens mid to late month for a complete picture. So if this model error pattern continues into the winter and spring, then the typical Nino ridge north of the Great Lakes would adjust further south than previous super El Niño events. The December ridge can typically be further south anyway to some extent. So the big test will probably come JFM. It will be interesting to see how things work out. This stronger mid-latitude ridge axis since the late spring is causing the PDO to remain negative and the AMO positive. It’s also evident to the AAM disparity that you noted. New forecasts for early October Seasonal forecast from early September Typical October El Niño pattern

Looks like 1.93” may be it

+.06 today.... 2.44 event total.

Tis the season where this will come in handy. A gift to the board, with plenty more to follow. Reanalysis Switchboard I put together the Reanalysis Switchboard as a friendlier front door to NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory’s historical weather and climate tools. NOAA has an enormous amount of reanalysis data and some genuinely powerful plotting tools, but there has always been a slight assumption that the person using them already has a PhD in atmospheric science, knows what every dataset acronym means, and remembers which web form was designed sometime around the Clinton administration. I wanted something where a weather enthusiast could start with the actual question instead. The Switchboard lets you map a month or season, compare two datasets, examine individual historical storms at daily or 6-hourly resolution, analyze changes through time, make distributions and month-by-year heatmaps, run wavelet and autocorrelation analyses, and explore relationships with climate indices such as the NAO, PNA, ENSO, PDO and others. Instead of making you figure out which NOAA tool to use, the Switchboard asks what you are trying to do, determines which NOAA plotting system can handle it, checks whether the dates and variables are actually available, explains important limitations, and builds the request for you. The plots and underlying data still come from NOAA PSL. The Switchboard is basically the traffic controller. I also added a simple Dataset Guide because the alphabet soup gets ridiculous very quickly. It gives basic information about ERA5, JRA-3Q, JRA-55, MERRA-2, NCEP/NCAR R1, 20th Century Reanalysis V3, CORe and the other datasets, including their approximate spatial resolution, period of record, time resolution available through the site, what each dataset actually is, and why you might choose one over another. One example is comparing two famous East Coast snowstorms. I used the Switchboard to compare the Blizzard of 1996 (January 6–8, 1996) with the January 2016 blizzard (January 22–24, 2016). Both storms were analyzed using the same NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 dataset, the same Mid-Atlantic/Northeast geographic area, the same three-day averaging method and the same anomaly climatology. That makes it possible to directly compare things such as the 500-mb upper-air pattern and precipitable water between the two storms without first downloading a reanalysis archive and writing a bunch of code. That is really the point of the project: give people access to some very powerful historical-weather tools without requiring them to earn another degree just to figure out which button NOAA wanted them to press. Reanalysis Switchboard: https://cpaweatherlab.com/switchboard/ Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

That was 1/2/14. Extremely cold event for snow. I think Logan dropped to 0F at one point with moderate snow.

0.90". Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Just went outside. It's not raining.

Well, 8 named storms and it's still September.. not bad. Shear in the Atlantic has been record high this season. I think the old days of 9NS/yr average, pre-1995, may be done.

Models are trending south with the rain this week... especially the Euro.

Final here was 7.54"

Yep I am seeing videos on YouTube about competing factors with the strong El Niño that may make this winter interesting especially the PDO. Hopefully they are right. Nothing like a mild rainy winter. We usually only get a month or two of snow. We dont need 12 months of rain. Weather with Travis is also another person who thinks that. His forecasts are really good. Check him out. He is a former chief Meteorologist.

Every NS so far this year except Edouard has been significantly sheared during much of their existences. Hanna reminds me of Bertha, exposed LLCC w/ one giant "supercell" downshear! I say "supercell" b/c it is not a supercell in a traditional sense, but in the satellite presentation, it sure looks like one. Back-building convection upshear w/ discrete propagation.

Good questions! Yes it would, but when you always go big or max, your fcst success rate for high-end wx event is 100%. That requires zero met skills. Anyone can say that and sound awesome! But ppl do it anyway b/c they know most will only remember the really big events selectivity, which is normal, but they do not realize such a forecaster always goes big, and this puts them up on a pedestal immediately and you get a dedicated fan/follower for life b/c of *one* "successful fcst of a biggie! Yes, "sneaky" wx events are becoming less common, but do not let your guard down, Ask @CoastalWx about Dec 9, 2005 or that early March 2013 snowstorm. And even though it would likely not happen in the NEUS, you still get HUs that unexpectedly go nuts those last 6-12 hr before landfall. Look at Michael in Oct 2018 and Ian in Sep 2022. And such unexpected RI w/ TCs happens at lot for far at sea. HU Nolo S of HI several days ago was fcst to peak at 105 kt. Well, it actually peaked at 135 kt! And Humberto in Sep 2007 near the TX coast in just 24 hr when from next to nothing as a disturbance to a 80 kt HU at landfall. Unexpected tornado outbreaks, esp. on a more local, less synoptically-evident scale, still occur every year. The "surprises" are more often w/ mesoscale-type phenomena these days (inner cores of TCs are mesoscale), but don't rule out weenie snowstorms/synoptic-scale events completely! And interesting combo is mesoscale surprises occurring when a large-scale synoptic event is expected. I can't recall the exact event (@CoastalWx will!) but there was an OES event in NE MA as a large-scale storm was approaching, and Topsfield got like 25" of fluff before any real synoptic snow moved in!

The biggest storm to impact the region in "HALF A YEAR!" LOL. Who says that in regular talk? Saying "6 months" is not dramatic enough, use "year" to make it sound "longer." You see how micromanaged wording is for max effect. This is good news from the Southern Rockies to the Lower MS Valley b/c this sig rain is badly needed b/c of drought conditions. You never hear about that, do you?

I am only a casual sports fan, so verify this for me. It has been said that its all about now the stupid drama OFF the field, like contracts, what this player said, a team potentially moving, etc, than the games themselves!