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Last one of the year, candidly I hope the low goes over Salisbury. I’ve been too nice to you guys the last couple years on the fall line and south

??? Did you even look at the H5 maps?

Looks pretty good to me

From DT: and his video about 25 min ago he's still calling bull on the gfs. Yes I saw the 18z wed op GFS . There is a better chance of monkeys flying out of my ass on Sunday night then that model verifying.

H5 was wonky but less confluence helped it gain latitude on the cmc

We said it at the same time

That don't look bad at all.

All these years and half of you still can’t read a weather model I see… ggem is more in the gfs camp than the euro camp.

Go to bed

Its still in the GFS camp but nowhere near as good. Might still eek out a coastal capture

Read it wrong CMC might look solid

@84 the CMC is progressive

CMC going to be fine, at the party

CMC will be fine

If this low track were to verify as the low intensifies heading northward, heavier snow would push further back into CTP.

I’m just to this one at 105 and that’s 15 hours at 0.5-.75” per hour

Good post.

00z GFS from the MA thread

I’m driving to Atlantic City 110% if this pans out!

CMC might look east could be wrong.

00z vs. 18z GFS (grain of salt, amateur analysis) confluence in 50/50 region trended weaker but what was far more impactful was the speed of the kicker (faster) and the decreased amplitude of ridging preceding the s/w.

Absolutely, great to see 2 good runs in a row by the GFS.

CMC is going to be different than its 12z run. So far can't make anything declarative but I think itll be somewhat worse with where the surface low is created, amplified, and captured. No idea if it'll be bad or still work out thanks to a H5 pass.