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The additional AWOS and METAR sites should be useful for improving local observations, especially in areas with limited nearby reporting. The ID change from K2V5 to KRYA is also worth noting for anyone tracking historical data. Having these updates clearly listed makes it easier to keep weather records and forecasts consistent.

Went to let the dogs out this morning and saw my breath. At 10:54 it is still 55°F currently. That was a fast crash.

@weatherwiz Believe this is what you wanted to see.

Right. Im not sure what is more relevant. Peak or post-peak during the matching winter months. Cansips is obviously wrong with its anomaly position either way and has been correcting each month for the past 6 or so.

Beautiful day for a morning walk....

I'm still playing around with my analog pairing idea, where you can see how recent years (2016-2025) compare to prior periods (e.g., 1951-1980 or 1881-1910) and see what locations had the most similar temperature regimes in those earlier years. Maybe with an ability to incorporate modeling to also include future periods like 2041-2070 or 2071-2100. Like for Philadelphia, you could see the ThreadEx stations with the closest winter climate in 1951-1980 are Baltimore (Downtown), MD; Olympia, WA; Caesars Head, SC; Charlottesville, VA; and Oak Ridge, TN. And the closest 1881-1910 winter climates are Knoxville, TN; Nashville, TN; Louisville, KY; Oklahoma City, OK; and Lewiston, ID. The closest 1951-1980 summer climates are Baltimore (Downtown), MD; Kansas City, MO; Norfolk, VA; Elizabeth City, NC; and Myrtle Beach, SC. And for 1881-1910 summers, St. Louis, MO; Norfolk, VA; Wilmington, NC; Raleigh, NC; and Nashville, TN. Or if we only allow locations whose mean temperatures in those periods are at least as high as recent Philadelphia temperatures, then the closest matches are:

47

48F. Gorgeous. Can't wait until this low temp is routine and not a just 24-hour aberration between 70F DP lows. I imagine that should occur sometime in January.

Gfs AI is not far offshore

Just taking that [temperature] map from face value, I would take that as just a massive flood of PAC air into North America but the structure of those temperature anomalies I think can be the product of two scenarios: 1. A configuration in which Arctic air is displaced well south (akin to a +PNA/-AO combo) 2. Those colder anomalies in the south are the product of extensive clouds and precipitation, so the anomalies are more of a product of diurnal departures versus the result of a pattern favoring colder air displaced south. If that product is showing extreme cold departures on the other side of the hemisphere, then I would absolutely believe scenario 2. Now, obviously, at our latitude even slightly above temperatures can be fine for snow. So I'm not stating we'll be snowless...but it just adds another difficulty we'd have to contend with. But...the structure of the precipitation anomalies, sort of indicates to me increased potential for cyclogenesis off the SE coast...I'd take chances with bringing storms up the coast and just hoping we can get a far enough offshore storm track and pull in some cold. As you know, a "furnace" in southeast Canada does not mean lack of "cold"

The December output def. seems further off than the DJF mean, though, Nick.

AI has a few long-range Steinbusters as well

The numbers have been quality controlled. The raw observations do show 103°F but are now shown as missing as they failed the quality control test. Either way, it's a bogus reading that would require 110°F+ on the coastal Plain to be plausible. Mount Pocono was certainly not one of the warmest locations in the State of Pennsylvania, it's invariably one of the coldest due to its elevation.

If you read on, I noted that. It's come into much better agreement, though.

49.6 early this morning

46.6F at the Lancaster homestead this morning.

It's about 35°W with the warmest anomalies. 110°W on the Euro v. 145°W on the CANSIPS. Not trivial.

Sandistril was the culprit on 2 of them I believe. He was pretty bad last year after good rookie season.

Something tells me he put his weenie balls deep into that d12 00z euro solution

Good point, I hadn't noticed that...it's actually like +4F.

Low of 64.9 and with the lower humidity it finally feels somewhat fall like