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Very stupid question and I’m still learning. If not, appropriate mods, move it to somewhere else.. my question is when I’m looking at model models and I’m looking at the 850mb temperatures and it’s less than 32° what else should I be looking at to see how warm the upper columns are. Always thought that the 850s were below 32 I was good. I live in Rockingham, North Carolina, so I’m on the southern tip of the snow. Thanks in advance for the education.

My brother sent out a screen shot of his to my family saying he's getting 19" of snow. They all got really excited.....I told them to cool their jets for about 5 days.

True, and all he talks about is the high

I can't believe how quickly this system has garnered so much attention. I am a complete newb and still don't totally get it all but I'm happy as long as we get piles of snow. No thanks on the ice!

It isn’t even all about the high. It’s about if that energy off the west coast can push east enough to get under the flow in time to spark this thing up.

January obs and discussions. Thats it.

There’s a path to a great winter. Even December wasn’t bad. It was frustrating for sure because it felt like we left a lot on the table, but at the end of the day, it was cold in December with a lot of smaller snow events to add to the holiday feel and we had long stretches of snow cover. If we somehow can cash in on this final 10 days of January and then those weeklies are close to correct for February, all of the sudden you are looking at a big winter.

One that verbatim spits out a model run without human input to generate a 7 day forecast is my guess. If I had a dollar for everytime I give my wife or daughter advice on weather conditions and I hear but my phone says....

Don’t know who Webb is but sounds like a great discussion in banter

Wasn't even depicted that high on today's guidance, lol

Webb IMO is full of it. That HP is NOT going to be 1050.

The ICON ensembles do not support that far of a south jog on the OP, they are very much in line with euro and GFS. Verbatim, continues the theme of a significant winter storm.

Looks like we have a good chance at seeing the North Lights tonight.

Made the mistake of getting on Twitter and seeing nothing but Webb and a bunch of other southern weather personalities going on and on about how the AI models have no grasp on how strong that High is going to be and once they pick up on it, this is all coming south. Someone intelligent in here please tell me they’re being somewhat biased lol

The terrible Crossville Ice Storm was 2/21/15. January 29-30 Crossville got a decent bit of ice on top of about 5-6" of snow, but nothing at all like 2015.

I believe that you folks in GSP area are extremely close to a dividing line due to a possibility of a pesky warm nose. That said, this far out (beyond 36 to 48 hours) it is a wait and see situation. There is little doubt that the potential is rather high for a Major Winter Storm from Central Texas and points E to the Atlantic Coast. I believe that certainty is all we can expect for a Storm 5 to 7 days out. You're welcome to hang out with our group. We may not be the most popular, but the knowledge base of our Mountain folk is second to none in my opinion.

Looks like all the models that were further north are trending south towards what the Euro and GFS are showing.

Suppose to be really really good northern lights tonight. Problem is these dam clouds came out of nowhere must be sound effect related with the wind

On shift nights all week but have fun y’all!

Its been the them the last several years as the northern stream has dominated and any phasing has been late

Nvm...

Thanks! We always strattle the line, but sometimes that can bring a little fun with it

12Km NAM posts should be hidden in a serious storm threat thread at this range, or any range come to think of it. It is about to be retired, and should already be. The Panasonic(which doesnt really exist) is better.