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We had a January thaw, right on cue...but it came and left this disaster, hopefully we can work on it some more before the arctic revisits the area. Makes for taking the dog out at night quite the adventure.

This morning's preliminary value of the PNA was +0.707. That's the highest the PNA has been since November 20, 2025 when the PNA reached +0.738. The PNA will remain positive for several more days before it is forecast to go somewhat negative for a short period of time. Afterward, the GEFS show the PNA rebounding. It remains plausible that a regime change (20+ days where the PNA>0 during the January 12-February 11 period or the 30-day period following the end of the recent long-duration PNA- regime) can occur. If so, perhaps the best opportunity for a moderate or larger snowstorm in the Middle Atlantic Region or Northeast could be in the January 25-February 15 timeframe. For such potential to be realized, the synoptic pieces would need to become available. So far, the subtropical jet has been largely quiet this winter. Should the forecast strong WWB materialize, that could lead to the subtropical jet's becoming more active across the southern tier of the U.S. some 10-14 days later. Whether that would align during a favorable longwave pattern remains to be seen. In the near-term, lighter snows are likely in parts of the Great Lakes Region and Northeast. The lake effect belts could see greater snowfalls, especially as Arctic air could try to get involved next week.

I like all aspects of winter. Cold, snow, ice, even the annual thaw as long as it’s not extended fall. Until winter becomes irredeemable. We’re not quite there yet in SNE but it’s getting bad to be sure. It’s becoming put up or shut up time. Need to be in striking distance of climo by the end of January since I think we’re probably relying on a February SSW to extend winter chances into March.

It seems like the cold hasn't been the issue at all this year. No real torch. We just don't do coastal storms anymore for some reason?

"It's as if the satellite's 'eyeglasses' got better and better over that period," says Elias Chereque. "It looks like there's more snow now than there used to be—but that's only because the satellite kept getting better 'prescriptions' for its glasses. It looked like there was more snow, but that's not what was happening." https://phys.org/news/2026-01-atmospheric-physicists-error-widely-cited.html https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv7926

95/100 times that would not happen. RIP James. He started an epic period.

Last year was sneaky cold too (compared to recent winters anyway), though not nearly as cold as this one has been. Both winters have featured a dearth of big systems. It’s just been a lot of dryness.

True but everyone remembers James stealing your degree for the Jan 15 blizzard. #wewillneverforget

That was a really good stretch actually after a very frustrating January. We got a moderate event on 1/26 which turned the tide and then we got a big dog on 2/1 and a pretty big event on 2/7. We had our pack over 20” for a time.

Yeah, silly me for not thinking 100” in 3 weeks wasn’t going to happen in 2015.

You mean we’re not gonna get 100” in 3 weeks? My forecast just got blown up.

I disagree. It’s been a much Different hemispheric look. We have plenty of cold available but can’t seem to get anything more than a “couple” droplets of qpf to slam into it.

Nobody said that Mr happy. But you did not think 15 was happening then either.

Well whatever ya think…it’s eerily similar. Not saying that we repeat that, but the talk was the same is the point.

No but I’ll take a Feb 2021 walking through the door please

Chef’s kiss from last night’s Euro run.

2015 is not walking through that door. Not even close.

This winter fucking sucks. Posted something similar in 2015 prior to the blitz. Let's go!

And to 1/15 too…

cue the 2015 redemption arc

9z Srefs like the idea of rain ending as snow too. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2026011306&fh=384&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

It’s very similar to last year.

Same shit happened in Jan of 15 too…the melts were epic…from eastern areas especially.

Along with most of the country

Define less than a few please…