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It’s still too early to know for sure how strong the El Niño will be but the early signs do favor an event that gets fairly powerful. How strong is uncertain, but he’s right that if it does become a super event that would be very bad news for northern areas.

This was an A winter in Buda. 1.5 inches of sleet and freezing rain and one high of 26 degrees, three nights lows near 15 degrees. It does not take much to have an A-grade winter in these parts because our average high/low in January is 59/41.

Winds threw an “exciting” curveball here tonight. I’m not sure of all the details but a fire quickly started spreading from my neighbor’s property into the heavily wooded section of my own. Between the very narrow tornado miss in March & this, sure making for a memorable spring.

Our rain chances just evaporated. The forcing is going vroom vroom, straight to the northeast. Our next real chance will be sometime in Oct or Nov with the Super El Nino. Hopefully there will be a HUGE flood, and I will be right in the middle of it, literally. "This is Jebman, reporting to you LIVE from a tree with my tablet and other personal area net equipment, in the midst of what is likely shaping up to be one of the very worst historical floods here in Buda in late 2026. It is pouring rain, they say this Nino is the worst in history. I will keep you all up to date with the very latest on the Flood of 2026, as long as I can. The water is rising steadily - and this tree is massive but it is swaying! Rain rates are at times up to 4 inches per hour. I give my survival - One chance in Three. Stay Tuned!" Meanwhile in other news, Palisades Tahoe still has heavy snow, they STILL are piling it right up, likely well over two feet and counting! It's a firehose of moisture and it just keeps going and going and going, kind of like the Energizer Bunny! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams#tab=palisades Check out the Alpine Peak Cam! That snow must be over 30 inches deep by now and still comin down with a hell of a lot more to go! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams#tab=alpine

A E3 tornado went up that road 4 years ago about 1/4 mile down from where this pic was taken.

2 hour delay but got home today. Walked thought the door at 1:50 am.

Latest OHC:

Gotta believe the models are up to their usual gaslighting. Believe it when it's actually melted and in the ground.

What a fun final round of the Masters today. Way to go Rory!

Up to 1" hail from some small cells that moved through.

71 for the high, currently 59. Just a perfect day to watch the final round of the Masters on the patio.

The natural snow trails are hanging in there. The mid/upper elevation band is still sitting 4+ feet of natural depth.

been much warmer and wetter than a "normal" spring and will continue to be for the forseeable future, but okay lol

Snowpack at 3,000ft off High Road is holding at 51”. Holding at 60” up at the Co-Op stake at 3,700ft. It’s interesting to see what 303” of snowfall leaves as a snowpack this time of year, even with the lack of snowfall (relative to normal) the past couple months.

Wussy light rains here today totaling 0.13". Tomorrow the rains will miss north and east, but later Tuesday the better rain chances return.

https://www.summitdaily.com/news/colorado-river-deliver-more-water-lake-powell-march-heatwave/ This is what a drought looks like boys. As we clutch our pearls at a slightly below average precip year after many years of subtropical like moisture. Lets keep perspective.

Another day, another soaker. I picked up 0.57" of rain this afternoon/evening. More rain is coming as early as Monday night, but especially Tuesday/Wednesday, then a good event Friday night. Wet, wet, wet.

Have had several fires in south jersey already. Is there any rain in sight?

Can anyone explain the discrepancy between Google Weather’s forecast for Saturday versus The Weather Channel? Google now shows 88 for a high, which would be much more bearable. Weather channel still shows 95. I’m working the Ren Faire at Dorey Park and would like to think maybe it won’t actually get as horrifically hot as they’re saying… :-/ .

It's hard to comprehend why these Texas forecasters keep right on predicting 4 to 10 inches of rain for our region when by now it should be obvious that Houston will have torrential rain throughout the night into Monday and Austin and vicinity will have occasional sprinkles with maybe a wetting to perhaps a quarter inch of rain thru Monday night. I am no meteorologist but why do they keep on paying these Mets down here big money for crazy forecasts nearly a FOOT of rain, when Buda usually does not see that much in 10 months? I think the NWS down here may need to go back to weather school. I am getting warnings on my phone! I know damn well I'm not getting a half inch of rain through May 15! We are in a DROUGHT. Drop these ridiculous warnings for Austin and Hays County NOW! This might be a more reasonable forecast Here it is: Sunday night for the Austin Metropolitan Region including Buda, Sprinkles overnight, Wetting to quarter inch of rain at most. Monday, Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of a passing shower, maybe one sixteenth of an inch of rain. Rest of the week partly cloudy, SE winds, highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, lows near 67. The southeasterlies will maintain low level humidity into the foreseeable future. Warn Houston, anyone can see they are in full flood stage and will stay there through Thursday at least! All the rain is training over them and will through Monday morning! Where do these Texan meteorologists come from? Oh wait, all the experts got fired by YOU KNOW WHO! OK Texan NWS, that is MUCH BETTER! I apologize, you guys are pretty smart after all! Probably a 195 Intelligence Quotient! .UPDATE... Issued at 902 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 The Flood Watch previously in effect for portions of the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains was cancelled at around 9 PM CDT. While the atmosphere should remain more moist than normal through the night over the former watch region, a lack of strong forcing and lowered confidence in the coverage of widespread heavy rain led to the cancellation of the watch. Regardless, a few isolated showers and storms may still produce some localized heavy downpours overnight, given the moist environment. This is a much better forecast. It's likely to be correct for the Austin area and surrounding cities and towns. Hey, THANKS, Texas NWS! You guys are pretty cool folks!

Guess I wasn’t paying attention, but the wet-bulbs were surprising low to me coming into this air mass, given it was so spring-like 40F up high this afternoon. Wet bulb down to 32F and quick 2” of snow at the picnic tables so far. Cold 37-39F rain down here/MVL.

63 today here much warmer just south of EWR EWR: 53 / 39 NYC: 55 / 43

Check out Alpine Peak Cam at Palisades Tahoe!!! They got well over two feet of snow and it is STILL POURING HUGE AGGREGATES! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams#tab=alpine The 8200 foot Scope - They cleared that platform earlier today with a snow blower, well it has a 3 foot drift covering it! I think Palisades got 2 feet just today, not counting the 16 to 26 inches last night! Wow man this is an all-out atmospheric river for Palisades! Mammoth was too far south for the river. https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams#tab=palisades