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I mean, we do want our weenie models to show big hits. Drunken runs of 970mb lows ripping down all the vegetation from the cape to the Hudson valley.

I understand that Oktoberfest is a late September event, but some local breweries are putting it on tap way too early. It’s such a great fall beer and where I work, it ran out before fall even started.

In one fell swoop, @CoastalWx could get rid of his "imagined" Weymouth drought! LOL.

A lot. I'm guessing minimum of $550.00 if you are close to the site. Likely cost you a lot more.

26C north almost to the benchmark. That's why I was thinking warm core. Regardless, I'm surprised it's not even mention of worthiness to the NHC.

And that it sucks bad too.

A batch of heavy showers has popped up, which lead to mainly heavy rain starting at 12:50PM. It is continuing to rain at a moderate rate and this is adding up nicely. 1/2”++ has already fallen. The showers are moving SSW. Before today, I had received 2” MTD. So, these are beneficial rains.

the location of the HP in Canada is what will decide the track of the LP - the HP on the 6Z Euro-AI is a few hundred miles north northeast of the GFS and Canadian location - makes a difference EC-AIFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits - go to hour 120

Ukie is way east. But it probably can be discarded as it’s an outlier

A September nor'easter of this strength here is uncharted waters. That high to the N and the way the low comes up so deep? This would be impressive in mid-winter. Extraordinary patterns often result in extraordinary individual wx events!

I thought so. Definitely some scenic snows in 2015-16. And thats exactly right about the atmosphere. If we have to explain that no two years are the same or follow some linear correlation, then we really are starting at square 1. The funny thing is, 1997-98 was actually unusual in that Feb was the warm month, not December. A bit of an odd duck from strong Ninos. Right off the bat I doubt that happens this year. 1997-98 wasnt even that bad Nov-Jan, then went totally flat in Feb.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/contour/

And @ineedsnow I bet thinks the UKX2 intensity fcst is DA BOMB?!

Because it occludes.

Link to that excellent SST analysis?

I disagree right now because of the 12Z Canadian and the location of the strong HP

Immediate coast yes, but that's not where I am talking about. The low slows stalls over 22-24 C SSTs. Stop using SSTs closest to Weymouth as if that is the world! Your IMBY bias needs to end...

Light but measurable rain for third straight day. Ground is saturated. About .7 since Sunday.

Agree on Euro/EPS/Euro AI leading the way (as they often do on nor easter type storms)

The Canadian at 12Z basically agrees with it - that HP in far southeast near our border in Canada keeps us in the clear

hawaii could be socked again with torrential rains it has not been a good year for the islands..

@CoastalWxwill conclude this..."we blow all our chances way too early in the season! El NIno SUXS"

What a beaut. Third C5 of the season in the basin.

Ah, all good.

The Dvorak color table really gives an ideal of CDO intensity and symmetry!