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12Z UK: H in N ATL: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 32.7N 70.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 19.10.2026 36 32.7N 70.7W 1007 44 1200UTC 19.10.2026 48 33.7N 71.3W 1004 43 0000UTC 20.10.2026 60 35.0N 71.2W 1002 41 1200UTC 20.10.2026 72 36.0N 70.5W 1001 39 0000UTC 21.10.2026 84 36.0N 70.0W 1001 45 1200UTC 21.10.2026 96 36.0N 70.2W 998 42 0000UTC 22.10.2026 108 36.2N 70.5W 996 45 1200UTC 22.10.2026 120 36.9N 69.2W 992 42 0000UTC 23.10.2026 132 38.1N 66.5W 987 48 1200UTC 23.10.2026 144 40.9N 61.1W 978 67 0000UTC 24.10.2026 156 45.8N 56.8W 977 55 1200UTC 24.10.2026 168 47.9N 58.0W 996 43

speak of the devil... interesting for objective readers/learners: https://phys.org/news/2026-10-el-nio-storm-weather-disaster.html

It would be nice to get a frost overnight. Got a mow in today. I feel like I’ve been mowing every weekend since mid April. Anything that can slow down/stop the growing season is greatly appreciated. 50F/DP 36F

You may not hit 32 until January

Nothing’s even close to a certainty. 2026 and 2023 are not even close in magnitude and 2023 never even got stronger than high end moderate as well as being way less E based in winter (close to basin-wide) vs where 26-7 is heading: 1+2 3 4 3.4 2023 9 2.27 1.51 0.45 0.91 2026 9 3.94 2.97 -0.02 2.06 2023 12 0.68 1.48 0.73 1.38 2024 1 -0.02 1.15 0.70 1.03 2024 2 0.16 0.78 0.50 0.84 Also, 2026’s PDO is much less negative than 2023’s: 2023 -1.24 -1.79 -2.50 -3.13 -2.46 -2.67 -2.44 -2.02 -2.52 -1.88 -1.16 -1.20 2024 -1.48 -1.33 -1.27 2026 -0.87 -0.79 -1.18 -1.28 -1.64 -1.32 -1.35 -1.12 -0.74

Ryan Kane @ryankanerWX https://x.com/ryankanerWX/status/2111481037033296266/photo/1 The latest Euro weeklies run with the troughiness over the western US slowly pushing westward into the pacific makes sense to me. This would allow a more poleward flow at times into CONUS, increasing the chances for cold air intrusions for mid-late November. For now the cold likely stays bottled up through early November. A more typical, strong +ENSO pattern is beginning to take shape come November into December. For snow lovers across the Mid-Atlantic & Northeast, this will be a high boom/bust winter which will all be determined from Jan 15-Feb 15th. I'll have my full synopsis in my winter forecast on Sunday, November 1st. #EcWx #MdWx

Height of Land was pounding pretty good earlier Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

My point is just because it overshot cold in 2023 doesnt mean it will do it this year

Right and how did the euro do in 24-25 an 25-26? Its not overhoting cold by that much

53 and .88 rain.

Heading NW at the end of the run lets rip that up here

A bit high, but not bad: 65/26/7 and 103 for yearly max. Busted on the earliest 90 though, not till 6/6.

.52, most after midnight. Surprised since heavy storms went north, east south and west of me last evening.

12z ICON might have been wild if it went past hr180

Did better here in Columbia than what I had an anticipated. 0.75 inches for Friday evening through Saturday morning.

It’s freezing out

I’ll take the rainfall after what models showed a week ago

Sticking about 2000ft or so. But clearing up

Weeklies really get that active southern stream going in early November:

Cold air still advecting in….temps haven’t risen all morning.

Its 2 weeks away lol. Take it one day at a time buddy ..its 10/17

49/40 here. I have nothing nice to say.

The season of disgusting dews is finally over. Hopefully no more AC till april