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Checked last night for the first time in days. Trying to cut back.

The GFS and Euro are showing .90-1.35" qpf here, Ratios should be really high with this as well in the 12-15:1 range i think, These trough related set ups are generally good fluff producers.

Just for kicks and giggles...12z AIGFS gives us this look. That will certainly change, and was a red herring in early December. However, IF the second cold shot is real, I would certainly think winter wx might be on the table. At some point, one of those warm air masses with lots of humidity won't get out of the way fast enough.

Next week looks downright chilly

The fokes on long Island don't like the trend. I do!

AIEURO came south with snowfall.

The 12z AIGFS(no idea how accurate that model is???) also sends a pretty strong cold shot around Jan 2-3. It is more Texas centered, but spreads eastward. It has an anafront - there is that word again. Models were overly strong w/ the early December cold. We have to guard against that, but this is January. Climatology favors colder air masses.

This storm is on the 26th

I mean sure if you’re talking about a few nose hairs colder.

Would take the 5" the euro is showing for Morristown and run...

And “Enter sandman” is playing. Whether you are a Yanks or Sox fan….he was lights out 99% of the time. Let’s hope he can bring this home for SNE.

EPS mean snow depth (I don’t have a sub to look at actual quantity on pivotal) moved SW some

Getting confusing with some folks saying good stuff…but where are they saying this from/or referring to? Maine? Or upstate NY? Or for SNE?

Ya models are going to struggle with the placement of the IVT but no reason not to favor the climo spots in the midcoast although I have seen jacks further west they are much rarer. Will be fun to watch moisture streaming off the gulf on radar wherever it sets up.

Not a terrible look from the Euro. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Here is what is interesting. The Euro doesn't see cold...until it does. When it finally gets it in its crosshairs, we usually are good. So, on to the 12z Euro....There is a cold front on the 28th which is getting colder with each run - thanks to @GaWx for the ensemble info. The Music City Bowl...moderation of temps would be appreciated(Dear CMC). I about froze at the Vandy game w/ a stiff little 5-10mph wind in my face in the South end zone. In my younger days, no problem. Back to the point...the Euro has another cold front on the 2nd which looks legit cold. General takeaways....IF the NAO is in place and has staying power, it very well could pinwheel one cold shot after another w/ warm interludes. It would force that cold well south per @Daniel Boone's comments - I agree. Those were some WILD runs at 12z. Want some fun? Go look at the 500 map for the CMC at 240. Then, go look at the surface pressure anomalies under that. Then, go look at temp departures from the norm. Single digits sitting under a monster 500 ridge. How does it doe that? Welcome to the NAO. Basically, the cold air gets sent into the SE, and it can't escape out to see due to the Atlantic block. It gets trapped. I have no idea if that is right...just so counter to what we normally look at. BUT, if that is really, that is an ice storm setup if I have ever seen one. Like I said...crazy 12z runs. The interesting question. Is modeling still playing catchup?

Thank you, @jconsor. This is encouraging to know.

But not for the forum he’s supposed to be in, which isn’t this one either.

That"s fine! You're good! For those who may seriously be disgruntled because of the 12z run of the GFS, take heart. Yes, hp was weaker and qp less, but this is 4 days away. As long as it holds on to the general idea, we have a long ways to go.

Spend the winter in Mattapoisett, it will build your mettle.

Happy New Year!

I agree concerning a miss to the south. The historical odds would favor something further north than what the recent runs of the GFS have been showing. It should also be noted that most storms during PNA- patterns have lighter amounts. Many options are on the table, including a weak, sheared out primary that produces very little precipitation. Let's see how things evolve.

No it was colder

I do. Look at how far north the big league models spread the qpf. Look at tomorrow’s event as an example. All kinds of nuances should spread the generosity well north of sne.

Not in the playoffs 2 years ago . He is a head case. You’ll see