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During the 1970s my worst warm season flooding occurred during Agnes and Belle. The 1980s and 1990s warm season flooding was also mostly tropical storms or hurricanes. We could probably say the same about the 2000s although some non tropical events began to register. But the 2010s and 2020s are more of a mix between tropical systems and weak lows. My most extreme rainfall in Long Beach was he weak low in mid-August 2011 that produced 10” during the morning and closed the barrier island to traffic since the areas around the bridges were flooded.

Radar estimated 3” here. Seems in the ballpark. A number of roads had sections flooded out in the East Bay Area when I was out earlier.

The lack of melt points to strong PV. So does the QBO. You can't get a worse winter pattern for the northeast in terms of cold. The cold will be bottled up at the arctic like 2019-2020, and the conus will be flooded with pac air.

Those numbers could definitely cause some flash flooding

Lil preview of december 2026, but the center of heat over the plains instead of the NE.

Please let me know about anything else you want added. I am going to attempt a shorter time scale MEI at some point as well, like perhaps a rolling 1 month average that updates daily or something like that.

IA next target / Mid west while we dry out a bit but still need to watch Fri - Sun for any cut off slowly moving through

all the way to 84 now : 84 / 71

1.85 will prob be the final.

1.64”. Decent enough

It's definitely among the most fascinating microcanes. Does anyone remember Iris? That's my all-time favorite.

More and more we are seeing these major warm season flash flooding events occur without defined tropical systems. The warmer atmosphere holds more moisture so tropical systems aren’t required. These days all that is required is a weak low or stalled out front. Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 157 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 ...PRECIPITATION REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Stamford 7.45 in 1220 PM 09/13 AWS Fairfield County... Stamford 7.45 in 1220 PM 09/13 AWS Essex County... MONTCLAIR 8.51 in 1210 PM 09/13 CWOP

You can almost never feel confident that the Ravens are gonna win until the clock says 0:00.

D was way too soft on that drive. 2 score game.

Those day in the life posts were epic! Anyone who would have gotten offended by them was missing the point. They were satirical in nature, and meant to be taken as good natured fun. At least that's how I saw them.

That was an earlier update. Check out the latest: down to +2.9 peak/blues still lower than reds thru NDJ:

Picked up 1.30" here, much of the heaviest stuff missed

Yeah that hasn't changed. The penalties holy shit. Mostly on the OL. As expected that unit is shaky. Hopefully it improves, but the center options are mediocre at best right now.

Looks like 1.17" will do it here.

It's really difficult to post when someone (who used to be the most popular poster in this thread) continues to take passive aggressive cheap shots directed at me in other threads on the forum. All over the Day In The Life post 1.5 years ago. I apologized multiple times but to no avail. I never ever intended to hurt someone to the point that they would act like this.

Ravens and penalties, tell me a better couple

more accurate because its an el nino so if its showing green in the east central pac and brown in the io you can make a good bet that will happen