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Oh I thought you were talking about the euro weeklies. I don't expect much from the nao until the SSW + scand ridging take effect and (hopefully) retrogrades over greenland

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html 0z EPS has the same thing. NAO is positive Thanksgiving until Dec 6. Now we have a good Pacific during that time, remember 13-14 and 14-15 had a favorable Pacific with +NAO and we did fine snow-wise. The Scan ridge is looking good at the end, but it's more reflecting the warming at 50mb and 10mb.

We also got some record cold earlier in November back in 2019. Though the lows weren’t to the level of late in November 2018. The big story in November 2019 for my area back on the GSB was how late my plants were booming with the 70° warmth earlier in the month. Our azalea was still in full bloom before the three nights in the low to mid 20s. The plant never came back the following spring due to the freeze damage.

Which models/forecast periods are you looking at?

Definitely the first time in many many years there’s been ice on the pond at base of my hill in Nov. Third or 4th time this month . Something is different. What it is ain’t exactly clear.

I agree with this, I've enjoyed this fall as well but my wife texts are "That wind tho"

I have thoroughly enjoyed this fall, ever since the first week of October we have had a great classic fall stretch with no nasty torches to kill the autumnal mood. The wind could have been lighter though, I have received an anomalously high number of texts from my wife saying, "why is it so fccking windy again" over the last several weeks lol

In 2018 I didn't get my first teens low until Thanksgiving morning on 11/22. The low that morning was 11 followed by a low of 6 the following morning, that was chilly. Last November I didn't have any lows in the teens but I did get down to 23 on 11/13 and 21 11/14.

2018 and 2019 was really the last time we had any widespread significant November cold for much of the region. Lowest November temperatures across the region Monthly Data for November 2025 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 24 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 24 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 25 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 25 CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN 25 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 25 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 25 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 26 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 26 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 26 CT GUILFORD COOP 26 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 26 CT DANBURY COOP 27 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 27 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 27 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 27 NY ST. JAMES COOP 28 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 29 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 30 NY SYOSSET COOP 30 NJ HARRISON COOP 31 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 31 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 31 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 31 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 32 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 32 NY CENTERPORT COOP 32 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 32 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 33 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 33 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 33 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 34 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 34 Monthly Data for November 2018 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 1 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 4 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 6 CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN 6 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 6 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 7 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 7 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 7 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 7 CT DANBURY COOP 9 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 9 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 10 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 11 NY WEST POINT COOP 11 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 11 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 12 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 12 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 13 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 13 NJ HARRISON COOP 13 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 13 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 13 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 13 CT GROTON COOP 13 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 13 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 14 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 14 NY MATTITUCK COOP 14 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 15 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 15 NY CENTERPORT COOP 15 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 15 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 15 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 15 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 16 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 17 NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 17 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 17 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 17 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 19 Monthly Data for November 2025 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 23 NJ OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 23 NJ MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 24 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 24 NJ BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP 24 NJ HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW COOP 24 NJ WERTSVILLE 4 NE COOP 25 NJ SUSSEX AIRPORT WBAN 25 PA MARTINS CREEK COOP 25 PA BLUE MARSH LAKE COOP 26 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 26 PA AVONDALE 2 N WBAN 27 PA SELLERSVILLE COOP 27 PA ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 27 PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 27 PA LEHIGHTON 1SSW COOP 27 NJ ESTELL MANOR COOP 27 NJ PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 27 NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 27 NJ EWING 3 WNW COOP 27 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 27 NJ SCHOOLEY'S MOUNTAIN 1 SW COOP 27 DE GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT WBAN 28 DE NEWARK AG FARM COOP 28 PA HERITAGE FIELD AIRPORT WBAN 28 NJ MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 28 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 28 PA NESHAMINY FALLS COOP 28 NJ TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 28 NJ BOONTON 1 SE COOP 28 PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 29 NJ ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 29 NJ PHILLIPSBURG-EASTON BRIDGE COOP 29 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 29 NJ NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 29 NJ BELMAR FARMINGDALE ALLAIRE AP WBAN 29 PA READING REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 30 DE WILMINGTON AIRPORT WBAN 30 NJ SEABROOK FARMS COOP 30 NJ LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 30 NJ MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 30 NJ PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 31 NJ EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 31 DE DOVER COOP 32 MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 32 DE LEWES COOP 32 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 32 Monthly Data for November 2018 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN -2 NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 5 NJ SUSSEX AIRPORT WBAN 6 PA SPRINGTOWN 1 NNE COOP 7 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 7 NJ BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP 7 PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 8 PA LEHIGHTON 1SSW COOP 8 NJ AEROFLEX-ANDOVER AIRPORT WBAN 8 NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 9 NJ WERTSVILLE 4 NE COOP 9 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 9 NJ NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 9 PA BLUE MARSH LAKE COOP 10 PA GRATERFORD 1 E COOP 10 PA SELLERSVILLE COOP 10 PA BUCKSVILLE COOP 10 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 10 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 10 NJ BOONTON 1 SE COOP 10 PA ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 11 PA HERITAGE FIELD AIRPORT WBAN 11 PA NESHAMINY FALLS COOP 11 NJ PHILLIPSBURG-EASTON BRIDGE COOP 11 PA DOYLESTOWN AIRPORT WBAN 11 PA HAMBURG COOP 12 NJ INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 12 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 13 NJ TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 13 DE WILMINGTON PORTER RES COOP 14 PA AVONDALE 2 N WBAN 14 PA READING REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 14 PA NORRISTOWN COOP 14 PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 14 NJ HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 14 NJ PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 14 NJ LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 14 NJ ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 15 NJ SEABROOK FARMS COOP 15 NJ ESTELL MANOR COOP 15 NJ PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 15 DE WILMINGTON AIRPORT WBAN 16 NJ MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 16 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 16 NJ CAPE MAY 2 NW COOP 16 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 16 NJ EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 16 DE DOVER COOP 19 NJ MARGATE COOP 19 PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 20

Game off?

Never dipped below 30 last night. Looks warmish for the next week so we wait until December for the next freeze

6th (I think) or 20th work for me. Let's make this happen

Bro we are the same.

Get it to 50mb before we whack it to wind reversals over the moon.

Agreed, the wind is certainly a factor as well as the timing of clouds moving in/out. There is no way to pin my stats on any one reason, they just are what they are.

For non-radiating locations right on the Hudson from northern Westchester to southern Dutchess, this fall has felt just about normal for the past 20 years. It's been consistently cool and not cold with a lot of wind. That should skew the radiating spots warm but less so the river towns.

ditto. I've picked more off of me in my time afield this fall, than I have in quite some time. then theres that new tick that says "no more meat for you"...meat eater. That would really suck.

Ever since the 1998 super El Nino, temp profiles changed up here. After the Pinatubo eruption effect wore off in the mid 90's, it was like a switch was flipped. Urban sites aside, even rural sites show this pattern change.

Lots of variables factor into this, like surface type, time of year, time of day but it can be more of a difference than people realize. To that point, my lowest temp of the season occurred this morning and its only 25. Most years I'd have some lows in the teens by now.

Eventually it breaks. You know these things go in cycles.

Well, technically-not really . But we’ll all keep an eye on things.

The 6th works for me. Have a wedding on the 13th of December. But the 20th I could probably do too. Thanks for putting this out there Ray.

Game on

I'm wondering if there is any way at all we can really know?