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In your backyard?

Yeah obviously this isn't nailed down. Just another look.

it's a great run, everything else is noise

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Here’s Euros total QPF, trying to separate the storm QPF from the event Thursday thats going to deliver several more inches in NW PA. Also, surface temps for this are insane. Here’s the 135 hr frame, which was basically the best 6hr precip frame for our area. Temps are like that the entire event. Normally you see temps like that and would think one would be smoking cirrus. I know ‘96 started with temps that cold, but I don’t think temps stayed there the entire event. Even if we don’t see the best QPF the whole column is essentially in the ideal snow growth temp range.

12z Euro toral QPF

What was 0Z and 6z euro? I thought it barely showed snow past the mason dixon.

12z updated

If we go back, even 2 years ago before the AI models started....We would be quite happy with today's results so far, assuming the EPS continues to improve. Impressive, Icon/CMC/UK/Euro all have heavy, accumulating snow with temperatures in the single digits, definitely has the PDII vibes

I wonder if the rates might be underdone by 10:1 ratios if we get a deep DGZ with moisture. Additionally, it wouldn't surprise me if we get some supper fluffy snow at some points which piles up nice and quick.

The total snowfall map that BRICK posted. That will NOT be all snow.

Can anyone with WeatherBELL access pull the Euro-AI Ensemble snow total plumes for Huntsville?

The euro AI was a little colder and farther south. It definitely gets warmer between 700-and 850 on both euro models

Hurricane hunters dropsondes planned:

I’m certainly not knowledgeable enough to argue with him on that but most others Mets are saying that a slower ejection increases the risk of phasing, and gives the TPV lobe and HP more time to start retreating, opening the door for more north trends. I guess a slower ejection can be good but only if the northern stream wave doesn’t also slow down and dig more west to phase?

Right now, I'm thinking 6-8” of combined snow/ice for my location. That will likely adjust in short time.

We get over a foot.

Oh boy oh boy oh boy

No matter what the models are showing he always likes to crap on everything with the worst possible outcome.

I see the GFS like this. It was taking drugs. At 0z it stopped, and progress was going good at 6z. But then it went into withdrawal. Needs some therapy before going back to normal.

Could be worse lol

Gonna be a total weenie here but wish we could get better rates. The longevity of this storm is what makes it impactful for us... along with the "ratios"

This thing clearly has plenty of quantitative precipitation to work with that is for sure. Definitely gonna be a mess, but this is going to be a big event.

There has been a bit of a trend on all 12Z models today of trailing some energy behind, but enough gets involved that we get a moderate hit. Still plenty of time for improvements. What's weird is that it used to be a very obvious bias of the GFS to eject energy too quickly, and the Euro tended to always bury it in the SW and leave it behind. It seems like lately the opposite has been the case.