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Something to watch for sure. This setup, if verified, could argue for some flooding potential across southern CT. southern CT right on the edge of the stronger llvl jet and more robust elevated CAPE with the boundary just south. Perfect scenario for training

NAMS are drenchers-others alot drier.

watch us get a 5-7" un-forecasted rain bomb out of nowhere by training 55 dbz rain cores in along a linear band of 40

I also had been missing out with storms going north and south of me, and mostly by a wide margin. However this morning we had a nice, gentle 3 hour rain. It only amounted to 0.19" but I'll take it.

The first CFS ens AAM run in 5.5 days was just released at the site I follow and it’s a doozy overall with a mean way up at ~+2.8 in just 12 days (July 7th), which is the earliest in the forecast period being that high of any run I’ve ever saved going back to late 2023! (See 2nd image below.) The prior highest mean for day 12 was ~+2.25 on the 5/21/26 12Z run, which verified at ~+1.8 (not bad). If it were to actually verify at +2.8, that would be only a little lower than the ~+3.2 record for that date set in 2015 per this chart from an earlier Tweet I just read: Regarding the full run, this is the highest mean of any I’ve saved/seen with it +2.8+ from day 12 through day 33 (July 28th), the end of the run: I’ll reiterate though that these tend to run too high, especially late in the runs, when this strong. For example, the 5/25 0Z run (see below) had a mean for today of ~+3 vs the actual of ~0, which is the dip that @bluewave alluded to. Thus, caution is still advised. But with it being way up at +2.8 as early as fcast day 12, it may actually verify pretty closely like the 5/21/26 12Z run at day 12 did (+1.8 vs +2.25 wasn’t too far off):

I have also experienced it! As the site is a daily, albeit, digital socialization outlet for me, I pave noticed it in the previous two days. Thank you GaWx, as always …..

Stalls that cold front just to our south tomorrow evening and then either slowly lifts it back north as a warm front or just remains a stationary front with a wave developing along it. GFS has it too. Wonder if alot of this depends on MCS developing and evolution tomorrow within the midwest

Yeah, the fastest El Niño development experienced during modern record keeping.

Point has 90 and 92 for next Monday and Tuesday. Not sure the last time I had back-to-back 90's. MQT there is a non-zero chance that a Heat Advisory or more could be needed for portions of Upper Michigan, particularly in the west where the NBM is already hinting at high temperatures approaching 100 on Monday. We could see similar temperatures on Tuesday into the middle of next week as well, provided that enough sunshine reaches the sfc those days.

If the entire system is too warm, even "below normal" can still be warm enough for convection to form. I tend to think that is what actually matters. If storms are popping near to above normal frequency near the MC you still have forcing.

New NAM bringing overrunning big rain potential suddenly for Saturday. We'll see what the other soon -arriving guidance updates show. could just be a typical NAM too far N-W at 60 hours deal.

Wow spill his tea on the server ?

Islip has experienced 15 out of the last 22 months since the drought started in September 2024 with below average precipitation bolded below. Monthly Total Precipitation for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026 2.58 3.66 4.19 2.15 2.68 0.66 M M M M M M 15.92 2025 0.60 3.72 4.76 1.98 4.67 1.88 5.64 0.53 1.58 5.06 2.72 3.77 36.91 2024 7.32 2.40 9.54 3.45 4.67 2.44 2.55 6.50 0.24 0.12 3.34 6.23 48.80

Should see a few strong storms tomorrow, particularly north of the Pike. Dries out quite a bit aloft which tapers down potential aerial coverage. Too bad because shear is pretty solid for late June

I wonder if that's why the heat of June and August last year were different. Both June 24 and August 12 hit 92 in our transpirationally-modified cabin in the woods, only one degree from our hottest. The June heat came with dews over 70 (I was miserable, having had knee replacement surgery the day before) while August 12 was the middle day of only our 2nd heat wave in 28 summers here and had dews mid-60s. Those peaks were also different from some normally hotter MA sites. On June 24 NYC/PHL/BWI were 98 to 101 and ACY reached 102. August 12 was only 90-91 at the big cities and a mere 86 on the boardwalk (actually the AP) at ACY.

Is it even possible to mix to 700mb around these parts?

If that's the case, fire danger will be extreme this fall until the wetter pattern sets in.

Good to see some 90s showing up for some of the area. Hoping to get in on some of that.

As mentioned the drought has largely remained the same since last week's update. With that said with a brutal heatwave coming, this is likely to worsen again and Falls Lake levels are going to drop some more outside of pop up storms. May the odds be ever in our favor. As mentione

I’d be quite surprised if KATL has a high on 7/4 of 103 and 104 on 7/5 as this (6Z) gfs run shows because of recent good rains there and the tendency for the GFS and to a lesser extent the Euro to be too hot for summer highs in much of the SE outside of RDU. An important variable on how hot it will get will be the amount of rainfall there between now and then. Regardless, heat indices look to be awful either way.

One aspect that intrigues me about that final/ending statement, "While our findings provide many avenues for interesting and relevant new research, the authors stress that the best way to reduce both uncertainty in and exposure to climate impacts is a rapid transition of relevant societal sectors away from fossil fuels to stabilize global temperature rise", is that the climate response has actually lagged behind the anthropomorphic contributed forcing. Or in other words, the latter has outpaced the former. I keep reading statements - no fault to the author as it's not specific to their study - like this, where it "seems" or intimates a 1::1 causality in time. As though if the ideal reality could ever be achieved, where there were a sudden and abrupt cessation of fossil fuel use, there would thus begin an immediately response and stabilizing climate. That is unfortunately not the case. In any such idealized state of affairs, the Earth would like keep warming until it satisfies the total thermal regulation/balance. Another way to look at it is, there is room for the present atmospheric chemistry to store yet more thermal energy that it is. Another possibility ( intuitive speculation) is that the modulating aspect of the global oceanic quasi coupling to this mess we are in, might also continue to absorb the lion's share of the warming human activity should otherwise have realized. 90% of which has sunk into the oceans (btw) since the Industrial Revolution. So in simpler terms, it's possible that a sudden stoppage of fossil fuel combustion might register more slowing of the warming due to this factor.

Damn, got hit pretty good here last night. Nearly continuous thunder/lightning for a couple hours, .34" of rain and some hail. Looked like the Littleton area really got slammed. Getting some more light rain this morning, too.

We will have to see exactly where the ride/heat dome sets up. If it's too far east, stuff will miss us to the north I call likelihood. Too far west and stuff may have a tendency to miss south. Also important is how steep H5 is. Lots of variables.

My niece's graduation party that day. I think my sister would prefer the few showers, haha

July fourth temps are scorching. An appropriate portend these days