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Exciting times

2 reasons not to worry. First, the Cfs2 site has remained steady with temps it's been advertising for JFM. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Second reason, the October Cansips comes out in only 11 days! Lol

SPC has day one marginal risk out for Far Eastern middle Tennessee the Cumberland plateau and the much majority of East Tennessee https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2026/day1otlk_20260919_1300.html .

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026 A recent ASCAT pass showed that the system NHC has been monitoring southwest of the Azores (AL99) has a well-defined circulation and peak wind vectors were around 26 kt. The stucture of the cyclone still has the bulk of the convection on the northern side, and that area of convection has persisted for more than 12 hours. However, the cyclone appears to lie along the northern edge of a zone of strong westerly shear. In addition the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, which has persisted since the last forecast cycle. Based on the given data, this system has been started as Tropical Depression Six with an initial intensity of 30 kt. Tropical Depression Six is currently meandering, however it should start to increase in speed and move generally to the northeast for the next 36 h as a trough to the north weakens the ridge to the northeast. Around 48 h, the ridge is expected to build back, which will force the cyclone to move towards the southwest. The system is expected to remain on this heading for the rest of the forecast period. The current NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA and GDMI. The depression is expected to move into a slightly more favorable environment, between two areas of intense shear. This could allow for some slight intensification to occur for the next day or so. After 36 h, the system is expected to move into an area of higher shear as the previously mentioned trough starts to negatively impact the cyclone, thus resulting in gradual weakening. The system is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and then dissipate around 120 h. However, the guidance from the GFS and ECMWF show significant differences in when dissipation occurs. The GFS has the cyclone dissipating much sooner around 72 h, while the ECMWF has dissipation occuring around 120 h. The current NHC intensity forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is slightly under HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 32.6N 33.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 33.0N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 33.6N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 33.8N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 33.4N 32.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 32.4N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 31.0N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 28.9N 37.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Berg

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 33.6W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 33.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). This system is expected to generally move to the northeast for the next 24 to 36 hours, before turning toward the southwest in a couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, however after that gradual weakening is expected to occur. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Katz/Berg

Models still struggling with the timing of rain tomorrow and Monday

It was almost like NHC was just hoping it would go away so they didn’t have to classify it

Hit 101.3 yesterday, 0.05 rain. Better be the last 100

Same 36 here, but it's my wife going to FL, for her sister's 70th BD. Lots of heat there (between Ocala and Gainesville) with 90/70 days for at least the first week. Saw significant (for mid-Sept) color changes on the BGR-and-back drive, white ash 50% color, red maple 10-20% (near full in the swamps), some color on birches and aspens. Seems a bit early as temps are only slightly BN this month, though the BN rain (50% of avg) since late June might be a factor.

It will be TD 6 at 11

Just moved my breal chair into the sun. It's over...

Worked well here in 2022-23. Temp(+/-) SN22-23 SN avg DEC +4.0 23.3" 19.4" JAN +9.0* 29.9" 20.2" *Warmest January, POR 1999-2026 FEB +1.4 16.3" 21.7" MAR +3.0 27.9" 17.0" Ironic that the month with least AN temp had the only BN snow.

Low of 36 overnight here at the house. Sawyer made it to 32 which is the first freezing temp for the airport this season. Fired up the wood stove to take the chill out of the house. It's officially Fall.

.9 rain yesterday, two different storms, much needed Enjoy the upcoming cooler air and rain (hopefully).

Biggest storm potential probably since March. The coastal surface reflection forms in the subtropics and phases with a mid level disturbance. We’ll have to see if we can get a named system out of this before reaches the mid latitudes. That will be the difference between run of the mill or something more unique, as advertised on the WPC output.

24 hours later still wondering why 99L isn’t at least classified as a TD

Don’t have any trees of heaven on your property? Those things love TOH (I think they might be part of their natural habitat).

We begin a stretch today of below normal temperatures that may last through much of the remainder of September. It also looks to be a pretty wet week but with a lot of uncertainty as to how wet by later this week. The best chances of steady rain arrives tomorrow and into Sunday night. With greater chances again Tuesday. Temperature wise unseasonably chilly with highs remaining in the 50's Tuesday through Thursday with closer to 60 degrees in some of our valley locations. Overnight lows will be in the chilly upper 40's.

We begin a stretch today of below normal temperatures that may last through much of the remainder of September. It also looks to be a pretty wet week but with a lot of uncertainty as to how wet by later this week. The best chances of steady rain arrives tomorrow and into Sunday night. With greater chances again Tuesday. Temperature wise unseasonably chilly with highs remaining in the 50's Tuesday through Thursday with closer to 60 degrees in some of our valley locations. Overnight lows will be in the chilly upper 40's.

Wedged in 60s for highs Wednesday???

Uninstalled back in July. Never needed it. Dud of a torch summer.

1.18" so far early this morning to bring us over 4" for Sep. Another wave tonight/tomorrow morning looks to be on the way.

On it's way to the usual "less than a tenth, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms".

With 60s in the forecast for the next 10 days…. We uninstalled.

Records: Highs: EWR: 93 (1983) NYC: 94 (1983) LGA: 92 (1983) JFK: 90 (1983) Lows: EWR: 44 (1959) NYC: 44 (1929) LGA: 49 (1959) JFK: 47 (1959) Historical: 1846: The Great Gale of 1846, likely the remnants of a hurricane, hit Newfoundland, Canada with strong winds and high surf. 46 men and 11 boats were lost. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1875: Boston, Massachusetts has the coolest high temperature of 49 °F for the month of September. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1895: Today it was 96° in Washington DC the first of five straight record high temperatures for September dates. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1936: The 1936 hurricane did damage in Provincetown, MA on the 19th as it dropped 7.79 inches of rain in Provincetown, MA. 1936 Hurricane Track - Weather Underground 1947 - The eye of a hurricane passed directly over New Orleans, and the barometric pressure dipped to 28.61 inches. The hurricane killed fifty-one persons, and caused 110 million dollars damage. It produced wind gusts to 155 mph while making landfall over Fort Lauderdale FL two days earlier. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1955: Hurricane Ione made landfall near Morehead City, NC with winds over 100 mph. 16.63 inches of rain fell at Maysville, NC. 40 blocks of New Bern, NC were underwater at one point. Seven people lost their lives and total damage was $88 million. This was the 3rd hurricane to cross eastern North Carolina in 5 weeks. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1962: Torrential rain and significant amounts of hail fell from storms over northwest Oklahoma. A few locations in Ellis, Woodward, and Roger Mills Counties had hail drifts waist-deep. The next morning, some drifts were still two feet high. The storms brought up to 8 inches of rain across parts of northwest Oklahoma. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1967 - Hurricane Beulah deluged Brownsville, TX, with 12.19 inches of rain in 24 hours, to establish a record for that location. Hurricane Beulah made landfall on the 20th near the mouth of the Rio Grande River, where a wind gust to 135 mph was reported by a ship in the port. (19th-20th) (The Weather Channel) 1967: Sparta, WI recorded their coldest September temperature with 19°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1980: Golfball to baseball sized hail hit St. Paul, MN. One company had 75 to 95 percent of the glass in their greenhouses smashed. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1982: On this date through the 30th, Hurricane Paul first hit El Salvador and Guatemala as a tropical storm whose heavy rains kill more than 1,000 people. It then moved back over the Pacific, where it strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph. The storm killed 8 people near Los Mochis, Mexico. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1983: While the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast basked in late summer record heat, wintry weather occurred in the Rockies behind a strong cold front. Record highs in the east included: Reading, PA: 95°, New York (Central Park), NY: 94°, Wilmington, DE: 94°, Baltimore, MD: 94°-Tied, Hartford, CT: 93 °F. (Ref. Many Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1983: 14 inches of snow fell just south of Great Falls, MT on this date through the 20th. 21 inches of snow fell at Nye, MT beginning the previous day through this date. Other snowfall totals: Mystic Lake, MT: 24 inches, Red Lodge, MT: 14 inches, Columbus, MT: 11 inches, Pryor, MT: 10 inches, Livingston, MT. The temperature fell to -6° at West Yellowstone, MT following the snow. The passage of a strong cold front was responsible for the wintry weather. The temperature at Denver, CO dropped from a sunny 86° to a snowy 35° in just 7 hours with the frontal passage. Kalispell and Billings, MT set record lows with 23° and 26° respectively. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Cool autumn-like weather invaded the Central Rockies. Temperatures dipped into the 30s and 40s, with readings in the teens and 20s reported in the higher elevations. Gunnison CO was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 15 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a fast moving cold front produced severe weather in Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Eight tornadoes were reported, including five in Indiana. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 74 mph at Wabash IND. Winds associated with the cold front itself gusted to 69 mph at Kenosha WI. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast Region. Cape Hatteras NC was deluged with nearly 3.50 inches of rain in three hours. Syracuse NY reported 1.77 inches of rain, a record for the date, and Chatham NJ reported an all-time record of 3.45 inches in one day. Hurricane Hugo headed for the Bahamas, and Tropical Storm Iris, following close on its heels, strengthened to near hurricane force. (The National Weather Summary) 1991: An early season outbreak of Arctic air caused considerable crop damage in Iowa as temperatures fell below freezing. Temperatures fell to the mid 20s to lower 30s in most locations. Northern Iowa was the hardest hit where temperatures remained at 30 degrees or below for 8 hours. Record lows included: Valentine, NE: 17°, Timber Lake, SD: 21°, Rapid City, SD: 22°, Huron, SD: 23°, Havre, MT: 24°, Mobridge, SD: 24°, Pierre, SD: 24°, Norfolk, NE: 26°, North Platte, NE: 26°-Tied, Sioux Falls, SD: 27°, Grand Island, NE: 27°, St. Cloud, MN: 28°, Sioux City, IA: 28°, Lincoln, NE: 29°, Rochester, MN: 30°-Tied, Minneapolis, MN: 31°, Omaha, NE: 31°, Waterloo, IA: 32 °F (Ref. Many Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1994: Honolulu, HI recorded its all-time high temperature of 95°. Kahului, HI tied their September record high with 96°. Lihue, HI tied their daily record high with 87°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)