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  2. IronTy
    What went wrong?
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
    Our last strong la nina (2010-11) had a great snow season, though.
  4. bluewave
    Any cooler conditions in the Southeast will mostly be a function of all the clouds and rain keeping the high temperatures down. The eastward displaced Pacific vortex and the frequent jet extensions will flood North America with mild Pacific air. Those climatology packages beyond 15 days are defaulting to general El Niño climatology. This event is much more extreme than general El Niño climatology.
  5. Brian5671
    Classic GFS S and E bias
  6. BeastFromTheEast
    Summer-type of morning and day here today. Woke up to low 60s and the DP will hover in the low 60s all day with a temp in the low 70s. Barring something unforeseen the record high MIN will be smashed!
  7. GaWx
    They may or they may not. That remains to be seen. There is no certainty about this. Yes, Nov 1-22 (weeks 1-3) is coming in warmer than was being shown earlier. But that doesn’t mean that weeks 4-6 (Nov 23-Dec 13) will definitely do the same. I’ll add that should the current SSW actually lead to colder, that wouldn’t per @Stormchaserchuck1be expected to happen for 30-35+ days afterward, which isn’t even til early to mid Dec (weeks 5-6 on the EW). OTOH, it often is warm in the E US near and for a couple of weeks after SSWs. This is a forecasting discussion, not a crystal ball discussion.
  8. NEG NAO
    a difference of opinion
  9. TSSN+
    Single fluke run? It hasn’t rained in 3 weeks and doesn’t look to besides some light stuff for foreseeable future. But sure
  10. bluewave
    Those long range runs beyond 15 days will correct much much warmer the closer in time we get to the forecast period like they did for this week. New run November 2-9 Old run
  11. Typhoon Tip
    may be a passive/diffused warm boundary extending S Ont thru upstate NY helping to generate and fan some of this contaminated sky...
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wasn't rebutting your insight, just offering my own.... talking to you, not at you.
  13. Typhoon Tip
    I'm wondering if today might bust a little cooler than it could have been ...sort of thing, because these clouds - I had figured today for a continuation of sunnier. It's completely cast' over here and holding T's down it seems. Sometimes these mid ceilings will agglomerate at mid morning like this did...it was sunny here at 8... But then open back up ... not sure if that's happening but if it stays this way, it's a modest bust.
  14. GaWx
    I’m not talking about snow in the NE US or snow anywhere for that matter. The CWG post also said nothing about snow. We’re all talking about temperature anomalies. It was referring to a “very warm pattern”, which weeks 4-6 are literally not on the EW run to which they were referring.
  15. sbnwx85
    It’s a magnificent morning
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would describe that is a shitty pattern that while not prohibitively warm, per se, isn't good enough for the coast...especially early in the season.
  17. ChescoWx
    Below is both Maryland and New York State in our latest study release under the Actual vs. Adjusted Data Research Report https://chescowx.com/raw-vs-ncei-maryland/ https://chescowx.com/raw-vs-ncei-new-york/
  18. GaWx
    ^These on this EW run are very warm weeks in much of the U.S., weeks 1-3: OTOH: These (weeks 4-6) are not very warm weeks in much of the U.S. as the very warm is restricted mainly to Canada and the entire S 2/3 is literally NN to slightly BN: see the difference? Calling these 3 weeks “very warm” on the model is incorrect:
  19. Brian5671
    Another busted sunny forecast-looks cloudy most of the day
  20. yoda
    Don't know if this was mentioned in here already... but FYI from our forum re REFS/RRFS
  21. Today
  22. nw baltimore wx
  23. michsnowfreak
    The same groups that chastised the (cold) Euro weeklies last winter for their expected inaccuracy is now tweeting day 45 lol. Day 45, btw, which shows temps slightly above avg in the north, average mid, and slightly below avg in the south, versus day which is above avg everywhere. Not to mention averages are some 13-20° warmer today than Dec 17th lol.
  24. ChescoWx
    Happy Election Day I hope all who can get out to vote! Weather will not be the excuse! Today we should see highs from upper 60's in ridge locations to the low 70's in valley spots. This is about 6 degrees above normal with lows tonight in the mid 40's to low 50's. Temperatures will peak on Wednesday with highs in the low 70's which is about 12 degrees above normal before we return to near normal by Monday, but by the end of next week we should see a sharp turn to chillier weather with temperatures at least a few degrees below normal. It has been a while since our last rain but our next soaking rain looks to arrive Friday with around 1.3" possible according to the ChescoWx model. By next Tuesday morning we should see lows in the mid 30's to low 40's, not far from freezing in the colder valleys! Of note on this date back in 2003 Phoenixville 1E hit 83 degrees and the county as a whole averaged 79.3 for a high...making it our warmest November 3rd since records began in 1890.
  25. ChescoWx
    Happy Election Day I hope all who can get out to vote! Weather will not be the excuse! Today we should see highs from upper 60's in ridge locations to the low 70's in valley spots. This is about 6 degrees above normal with lows tonight in the mid 40's to low 50's. Temperatures will peak on Wednesday with highs in the low 70's which is about 12 degrees above normal before we return to near normal by Monday, but by the end of next week we should see a sharp turn to chillier weather with temperatures at least a few degrees below normal. It has been a while since our last rain but our next soaking rain looks to arrive Friday with around 1.3" possible according to the ChescoWx model. By next Tuesday morning we should see lows in the mid 30's to low 40's, not far from freezing in the colder valleys! Of note on this date back in 2003 Phoenixville 1E hit 83 degrees and the county as a whole averaged 79.3 for a high...making it our warmest November 3rd since records began in 1890.
  26. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  27. JenkinsJinkies
    I see cliff jumping over a single run fluke is alive and well.
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