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This is classic Walt Drag AFD fodder. He used to get excited about these systems and go into great detail about the dynamics. I'd saved one of his all-time classics from the Eastern Wx days, but I can't find it (and can't recall the storm)

Really? I just typed in Cross Junction, VA and it’s all snow after 4 and 2-5”

And Tuesday

Do you have maps?

Yeah no kidding and people won't give it props.

FWIW, I checked out WPC's page and here's what is indicated for the 50th percentile through 12Z Monday (24-h snow). Issued earlier this morning. So yeah, that other plot for some reason must be a higher percentile. Still, this looks pretty darned fine to me!

I’ve never heard of 1996 mentioned as a triple phaser. Classic ones I have remember were 1993, Ohio Valley super bomb of 1978 and great Appalachian blizzard of 1950. All of those got down to 955-960. Dont think 1996 even got below 980.

Dude... ha. no shit but excluding the SW zones/NY megalopolis, that SNE snow layout is about close to a twin to 1978 Feb as I've seen. This system is no analog but I just find that interesting.

Looks like I finished with a little over 8'' in lebanon.

Someone in your region will get 24-36” depending where the h7 band ends up. Really jealous. Should get like 6-10” here in Philly, but your region is primed imo.

Hey whats the analog here? 96 seems to be it at least with this NAM run.

Icon and Rgem both have the IVT in pretty much the identical area.

While the NE gets lucky again (they do deserve it after some shit years in the snow department) next week still looks somewhat interesting for us. Gotta wait until the Northeast storm bombs out before we get a clue though.

Some of today’s runs have been showing a bit of a dry slot, especially as the storm really cranks up and starts shooting off to sea. That might come down to nowcasting, where it sets up and how early could be the difference between a blockbuster and just a large storm for some areas

I have friends in the Broadkill Beach area that invited me down, but I have Sunday evening plans. Depending on what happens here, I may go down Monday to help dig them out.

On air?

This was a major win for the gfs. One of the most notable wins it’s had in as long as I can remember.

ICON-EPS reflects the op - tick west initially but pushes the low out faster. Minimizes CCB time west of the bay and QPF dips as a result.

Yeah that’s the only thing I see too. It even shows a little kink in the isobars there. It did a decent job with the Cape Ann norlun a little while back.

If this verifies I may never wear clothes again.

This People need to acknowledge there are several models vs NAM/GFS where the 8-16 forecast makes good sense The higher amounts could verify..or not. There will still be time to bump them tomorrow if warranted

12z NAM looks good. Absolutely hammers from the coast of around Delaware to New England. I've got a friend who lives in Delaware ill get pictures and obs from. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

But at least you'll be on the water. Should be pretty gusty overnight.

Dynamics tell the story. Ride it.

I like your thinking. Historic or even double digit totals were never really in the cards for the DMV and west. It was shown on maybe 1-2 runs mostly on the gfs. The bulls eye was always constantly east/NE of us.