All Activity
- Past hour
-
Just heard on 1010 WINS that brides and grooms are hiring Etsy witches to cast weather spells in hopes of getting sunshine on their wedding day. Going to be a HOT summer boys and girls.
-
I mean they're spot on with this conceptually, and to an extent with the detailing but they're blowing it with the spatial layout - not without giving a reason why they thinking metro west and Fitchburg -Lawrence and up to Manchester are not part of the diagnostics, which they don't...? Oh, they do okay... I guess they're okay the way they handled - Confidence continues to increase that heat and humidity will pose a risk Thursday and Friday. As the warm front from Wednesday lifts further north, prolonged southwesterly flow will bring a surge of very hot and humid air, especially as 925mb temperatures increase to +27C Thursday and up to +30C Friday. Surface dewpoints are likely to top out in the upper 60s to low 70s, especially across interior MA and northern CT. These high dewpoints combined with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s will lead to heat index values approaching 100F Thursday and likely above 100F Friday across the CT River Valley, prompting Heat Advisories to be issued for northern CT and western MA from noon Thursday until 8PM Friday. especially away from the coastal plain. Heat Advisories may be expanded further east; however, a backdoor cold front is expected to drop into eastern MA sometime on Friday Not sure I agree synoptically..I admit to a flaccid PP but I don't see a very obvious BD mechanism, ether.
-
76 at 8:20 am isn't bad. Sat's a grungy mess though. Partly to mostly sunny for now but there's convective debris in heavier patch work lurking near-by west, inching east. The sun may alter the sounding such that some of that starts to vanquish - not uncommon - but we'll see. Heat over the next 3 days is going to be battling a bit of cloud pollution though. Most guidance 700, 500, 300 mb level RH fields are contaminated with occasional 70%.
-
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It's too reductive and narrow in scope...it's fine to use it for historical ranking as long you understand exactly what it is conveying and why...otherwise, this is akin to ranking each winter by NAO or PNA....sometimes it works, but often times it doesn't. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Largely a weenie fallacy that the collapse of ENSO will "save us"...DT likes to clinging to that crap and always ends up backtracking at the last moment. -
364 kWh for June so far. 986 for May.
-
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
In the traditional sense per ONI, but we have had some pretty robust cool ENSO seasonal signatures.......these RONI lags are a signature of the warming west Pacific, which constructively interferes with cool ENSO and negatively interferes with warm ENSO expression around the hemisphere...more specifically, while the ridge over North America is accentuated, the GOA low is blunted. It's this inconsistency that tends to mask the warm ENSO expression, while the traditional ONI fails to adequately capture the magnitude of the cool ENSO expression via the enhanced Aleutian ridge. -
How are your solar panels doing?
-
just between you and me ( and the social media'sphere heh)...sometimes I'm wondering if learning AI is being used at NWS offices, and it's not quite up to the task just yet. Like it still needs a helicopter teacher. I've noticed a lot of those kind of hard to explain head scratch nuances. There's not as many in urgent more/obviously significant situations, which makes sense... these latter types are more human eye required? I could see this scenario being "unchecked" yet; in need of doing so. But I'm also a sci fi writer in another life so -
-
Agree. Headline does not make sense.
-
Advisory level headline heat tomorrow and Friday ...cloud depending. I imagine the current layout gets extended into metro west of Boston and up the rt 3 corridor toward MHT eventually. Not seeing why Greenfield MA is going to be warmer than the Framingham MA to Manchester NH axis, but we'll see
-
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yea, RONI measures the associated mid latitude response relative to what is expected per ENSO climo....ie while one aspect of el Nino (Canadian ridge) may be well expressed, another be less so (Aleutian low), thus the RONI will still lag the ONI. Again, not to be redundant, but it is our innate proclivity as humans to be too binary with these concepts in our thought process. -
Dec 92 was a whiff at Gardiner, where we then lived - clouds, wind (thousands of white ash seedlings that spring) but no flakes. March 01 is the 2nd snowiest (55.5") of any month I've measured, trailing only the 61.5" of Dec 1976 in Fort Kent. The early month big dog was almost 20 hours of steady 0.5"/hr snow on 20-30 mph wind, but the capper was the pair of post-equinox storms that totaled 35" and boosted the pack to 48" on the 31st, deepest I've seen that late in the season. Another even stronger storm had been forecast for 4/1, but it went east and crushed Newfoundland.
-
mesoanalysis showing over 4ksbcape in n il this afternoon
-
2026-2027 Super El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yeah, there is an overlap going on so the line where one starts and the other ends may not be that clear. All the mid-latitude ridges between 30N and 60N have been getting stronger regardless of El Niño or La Niña. So perhaps that’s why the Aleutian low and mid-Atlantic and Southeast lows during recent super El Niño events have been getting weaker than in the past. Plus the weekly to seasonal guidance has been missing this ridge expansion in their long range forecasts. So we keep getting all these near to 10°+departure warm months close to the core of the ridges that aren’t being forecast beyond 15 days. -
So effing boring
-
0.10”. Which brings me to 0.10” on the month.
-
First 70-degree dewpoint of the year. Booo!!
-
Right now it looks like a strong El nino but models have been wrong in the past. Also maybe hes talking about this upcoming winter. I dont like bashing meteorologists even if they are wrong. He did bust badly last winter.
-
Pretty decent steady rain over here at Coppin State
-
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
mahantango#1 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
yea, we don't need hail. -
2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
SPC introduces Slight Risk for Thur and Fri. Personally I'd favor Friday for more widespread convection.- 447 replies
-
- severe
- thunderstorms
-
(and 7 more)
Tagged with:
-
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
mahantango#1 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
-
The truth is usually a blend between INS and DIT.
- Today
-
Junorch obs and discussion 2026
Damage In Tolland replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Stein really has us now. Sucking the life out of everything thru the weekend
