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  2. jm1220
    Those homes and many others are in trouble if we repeat this 3-5 more times over the winter.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not with this. -PDO is cold water in the GOA. This is also anti-El Nino October
  4. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Geez...that is convincing...I hate to go against the descending solar/W QBO/multidecadal trend, but that makes it tough. What you mean by -.75 PER MONTH.....isn't -.75 the DJFM aggregate mean per the formula?
  6. Cold Miser
    Some muted and some more vibrant colors around now. Big difference from a week ago.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    It looks like May-Aug NAO was -0.75/month and if October ends up +.. that is a formula for a more -NAO Winter. Plus since 2012 90N May-Sept SLP has reverse for the Winter every time, and it was strong neg anomaly this Summer.
  8. finnster
    Or Westminster has 0.03" and Parker 0.15". Bummer indeed. We'll have to import water from New Mexico at this rate. And in 30 hours from right now, Denver Water is prohibiting all outdoor watering for the foreseeable future, including next Spring till they say so. \ I hear ya. Weighing in here from the Fort Collins area. It looks like we're way too far north to cash in on any of this moisture. Should be getting to used to that by now but still get PO'd about it! Hope you guys in Denver metro get something out of it.
  9. cleetussnow
    Thats why we protect the dunes! While this is awful, they did their job. Other places were not so lucky, if you can call it that.
  10. WEATHER53
    That’s over a 15 foot shear!!
  11. backedgeapproaching
    I only have a small sample size of 12 years living here, but last year was by FAR the worst locally. Not even a close second in my opinion. I'm not an expert by any means, but pretty easy to explain last year I think- .75" in AUG and about 2.75" in Sept--that will probably do a number on foliage.
  12. Layman
    Colors aren't changing quick here but it seems to be on pace with other years. I'm just off the bay at 75' above sea level which could play a role. A stand out feature this year (that I've seen before but not every year) is the significant amount of pine sap. Cones, needles and sap everywhere this year.
  13. Mrs.J
    So we flew home yesterday. Had a layover in Dallas. Walking up off the plane on the jetway and back onto our flight to Baltimore it was like a sauna in there. We were told by the people we were house sitting for that they have really needed the rain out there also. The Rio Grande had just gotten down to a small stream/creek and what we saw when flying in was because of the El Nino rain. Was not expecting the humidity out there to be as high as it was so days felt like being back at home.
  14. Snowedin
    Yeah must be just my little corner of swampville keeping that underground moisture flowing more than surrounding spots. We live in an odd area of town literally surrounded by swampland and at nearly 200’ in elevation. Of course it’s pure conjecture on my part but I wonder if that plays a role. The acorns have been dropping like mad in the last few weeks so there’s that lol.
  15. WxWatcher007
    Back up at WXW2 and the color is spectacular.
  16. Prue11
    Cloudy…again
  17. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  18. Today
  19. MillvilleWx
    I know I'm late to respond to this and I'm not the biggest fan of JLC, but he is dead on with this assessment. Thanks for the share!
  20. TriPol started following October 2026
  21. TriPol
    Looking at the 270 hour EURO, I see we might do another Nor'Easter with pressures in the 980s. Right now, with 11 days to go, it shows landfall on Rhode Island. Could be nothing. Could be something. Who knows? Something new to track.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I bet we see the PDO ascend to near neutral between now and the end of November.
  23. tamarack
    Maybe, but even after 46 years as a forester, I can't figure out the reasons for great/average/awful colors. We had slightly AN rain in May/June then about 50% of average July thru Sept 26, and met summer was AN but nowhere near our warmest. I've read that drought limits the colors, but it's still a 'maybe' from me. Same opinion for excessive rain. Our worst color year, by a lot, was 2005. May that year was 200% of average rain with 6° BN temp, easily the coolest here. (Ask Tip about May 2005 - he has a strong opinion of that month. ) June thru September had AN temps (Sept '26 will finish about 1.5 BN) and slightly BN rain. By October 7 the color was middling (next to none of reds), 7-10 days later than average. Then 8-10 had nearly 6" rain on strong winds which brought down about 80% of the leaves. Phooey!
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I saw that post concerning October and viewed it as good news. I still remember when you schooled me on that as a weenie back in the fall of 2006....we had this big block in October and I got all excited, and you went on about how it meant +NAO later and how it would be an epically warm winter.....rest is history.
  25. mitchnick
    Don't break my heart like that.
  26. Paleocene
    Nice! DM me if you want recs... in-laws live near there. Otherwise, I am very in for cool/dry October. Give me rain in November and December when its not as nice to be outside.
  27. OSUmetstud
    It's bad faith to make strong conclusions from the original because a) it's not comparing the reanalysis to the reanalysis climatology and b) there's an obvious change after the ocean and sea-ice upgrade. My analysis should speak for itself and I am confident in my conclusions. I don't need some other posters in another forum to back me up.
  28. GaWx
    As I said, I’ve been following model initializations of 2m at 80+ N. They were colder than climo most of late May-early Aug. Check out those of the Euro for yesterday: clearly solidly BN vs 1981-2010 for 80N+ on Sep 29th (associated with a storm)(they were also quite cold going back to Sep 23rd by the way), which may actually be cold enough to support the ~2C colder than the 1958-2002 mean shown on the newest DMI graph: Here’s the Euro forecast for Oct 2nd, which shows notable warming as the storm moves S into Siberia. This is why I’m expecting warming on the DMI graphs by then: @so_whats_happening@OSUmetstud
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