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They such bullcrap. They should be over 10.

The 0z and 6z Euro Ens essentially look the same wrt precip/snowfall at 6z on Sunday, outside of run to run noise. There is no 'trend'. I am going to trust the Euro more overall for this potential event given how crappy the GFS has performed recently. I will lump the AI models in with the GFS/GEFS based on their performance with our recent (mostly Non) event.

We are going to have Phase 8 MJO Slightly negative NAO Deeply negative AO Positive PNA

So pretty

From NWS GSP: “As for the even further out potential system for the weekend, model guidance keeps the high pressure parked over the central part of the country and eventually makes its way into the area. There is much discrepancy and uncertainty if the frontal boundary is able to make anything of the weak moisture return. Friday and Saturday could see a mix of precip but again, its too far out. There is a possibility for a wintry mix as the transition zone and colder air move in. A few of the individual models show a signal for snow, but there is still much uncertainty. Any shift north or south of the potential boundary could be the difference in rain, snow, or nothing at all. And as this location has seen again and again, it`s all a matter of whether or not the cold air can even make it in time. Will continue to monitor as this system is going to change this far out.” So many important caveats in that discussion… .

I'm too young to be looking at porn...

Closeup

That’s what I told my last ex

You're absolutely right, but can we go ahead and pin it too? This week is must see TV! One step short of Kamchatka. I mean could you imagine our board in the week leading up to Kamchatka?!?! . So lets live a little. Its the only weather we got man. And the board is about to be as hyped as it has ever been. Let's pin the thread. Cuz I'm tired of searching for it and its only Monday.

We are going to have Phase 8 MJO Slightly negative NAO Deeply negative AO Positive PNA

Well, we made a valiant effort to comeback, and we finished at 2.7” here at WXW1. A truly gorgeous scene around town.

I don't have snowfall maps, but here is the total qpf for the event.

That is such a BS measurement. Almost all the other places in the boroughs measured in between 1.5 to 3 inches today, a combination of both the snow from the morning and from the evening. If they measured properly, they would have had more than 1 inch. Their measurement problems have become so exacerbated since the start of the decade. They’ve consistently been, on average like 1-2” less than nearby areas in every storm, and it adds up. They should either measure somewhere else in the park or maybe they should measure in Riverside park on the west side where it’s more expansive. We’ve seen this time and again now.

Beautiful

So it’s Monday…

Bottomed out at 15.5 degrees around 3 am, then once again temp started to rise and managed to pull off a non-diurnal temp for what seems like the 10th to 12th time since Christmas, crazy. Currently 21.4/13.0 at 8 am with SW 8 gutsing 22 mph winds.

4.0” here in Hubbentucky. I’m sure 4.5” in Templeton

The ensemble for the 6z AIFS is almost identical to the 6z Euro…looks like they may have fixed the algorithm for the ensemble at wxbell. General agreement right now between deterministic models and their ensembles and the AIFS ensemble. Either way, four days to go(five for some), this could change. Right now the 6z AIFS is an increasingly bonified cutter. The AIFS has change quite a bit overnight. The AI models handle hp over the top completely differently. Honestly, I don’t trust the AI models as they have each burned me this winter pretty badly…I will have to dig back through the Dec or Jan thread and find it. The AIFS Euro has been very warm d5-15 and badly so…but sometimes it swings very cold. I have found the Euro deterministic to be more dependable in my own experience as we have gotten deeoer into winter. The AI models look over amped….but deterministic models seem to be inconsistently handling the Baja low. The AIFS models may or may not be mishandling hp over the GL area…deterministic models have been sometimes too aggressive with cold this winter. When looking at the model verification graph posted by Tellico last night….the AIFS was kind of mid. The best model was the AIFS Euro ensemble, then the EPS, and then the Euro. Now, admittedly maybe that was just for that moment in time. As for the AiGFS…it has been completely awful at all ranges. I give it no credence. The UKMET/AIFS is a formidable pair and cannot be discounted. As for now, neither is budging.

There are two possible outcomes for this event: 1. A major ice storm affects southern CAD zones, and DC and points north get a major snowstorm. (Euro AI, UKMET, GFS AI, Euro) 2. A major snowstorm affects southern CAD zones, and DC and points north receive little to nothing. (GFS, CMC) What do we know of each model? The Euro AI is often locked onto an event inside D5 and is often deadly inside that range, but can be locked onto an incorrect solution, only to fold 48 hours before the event (credit to @high risk). It also often has a QPF bias. The Euro often tends to overamp low pressure systems, but it also tends to hold back energy in the Baja. It also often has a QPF bias. The GFS tends to show more suppressive, progressive solutions, and often tends to verify NW. The CMC has a major cold bias, and tends to overdo Arctic HPs. It also, generally, has a suppressive bias, but it is less prominent than the GFS. The UKMET tends to struggle on thermals, often being too warm. It also tends to overamp systems. Since the GFS AI is new, I don't know much about it. Although more operational models (that I'm aware of; I have no idea what Google's model outputs) support the northern solution, ensembles have been trending colder and snowier towards the southern solution over the last 24-36 hours. This is why I am skeptical to declare victory for the northern solution just yet. It would be easy to go with the Euro AI, just because that has been the best performing operational this winter inside D5. However, a major caveat to this is that the upcoming HP may be so anomalous that it hasn't received enough training data to output the correct solution, just due to its inexperience (credit to @WxUSAF). This should be a good test for the AI Euro. Now, it's too early to declare anything, but I am leaning towards the northern solution. 1050 HPs are extremely rare and often overdone in setups like these, and I don't think it'll be able to suppress it enough. However, if a ultra-strong HP does pan out, the Euro AI may have a greater probability of being wrong. Stay tuned...

I just want to de-clothe and lay in the middle of the yard

Low of 17F here. But, of course, we have bare ground.

4" at my office marstons mills.

And that the speedo fits

16

AI’s seem to love a snowstorm up here