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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Itstrainingtime replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yes, it's been a good month overall. I'm at 5.92". I just know how quickly things can dry out with any extended period without rain. -
12z NAM throwing out some nasty hodographs and STP numbers between 21z and 00z
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Looks like a hell of a drive on the thruway, even if it only lasts a few minutes, that's some serious precip.
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If you liked the 11z HRRR, you'll love the 12z HRRR. Legit squall line.
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Looks like 12z HRRR has some discrete convection from 18z to 20z across the region before QLCS (?) comes through around 22z-23z
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AI knew the Chesco COOPs are included in the SE PA climate division but did not feel it material enough to change the statistical fact that the raw data at Chesco was cooling the same as the surrounding stations so again no need for further cooling. Plus with all those AM TOB readings at Coatesville and West Chester why didn't NCEI apply some warming adjustments? Again only non-stop chilling adjustments.
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That is shocking
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
BBasile replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I hear ya, hoping for the same. Latest HRRR loves that 4-6pm timeframe for a juicy line to come through. I got .19" over the weekend but have 5.8" for the month. -
Man that’s some extremely heavy rain just to my west. Maybe some hail? DBZ thru the roof.
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That SE quad is pretty solid on radar now. Not surprised by recon, this probably gets bumped to 50-55 Kts at 11. I guess the question is in the face of 25 kts of shear, how close is this to its ceiling? Maybe 60kts later today?
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ready for some mid summer lake effect rain
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Do we want to put the obs, etc. in this thread today, or the severe wx thread? I vote for here.
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Ripping up here as storms train through. I've already blown past an inch and counting just in the last 20-25 minutes. Frequent thunder and lightening.
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Lady Di replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Risk for severe weather went from a 2 to 3. Yikes. I have somewhere to be a 5pm and hope I can get home before any rough stuff, but seems I could be driving in it. At least I don't have far to go. Weather Story from NWS Philadelphia/Mt Holly -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Itstrainingtime replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Hoping for rain but not much else. I only received 0.09" over the weekend and with a dry spell inbound I'm hoping for something appreciable today. -
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
My mistake Larry. Sorry. Still, I contend the AN forecast in 23/24 from the Cfs2 was not bad as it was on the correct side of normal for the east+ and got warmer as the season approached. -
Clouds. Our most common failure mode. Hope we can clear out today.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Some extreme effects from this record developing El Nino showing up in South America. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Without going into a competing long response, I frankly just don't care about a warming planet. There's nothing I can do about it aside from having a well insulated home (which I have since I receive the highest rating from my local energy provider for houses my size) and driving a fuel efficient vehicle. It is not, nor has it ever been, on my list of life's concerns at all. I care about weather imby and judge that weather from current conditions and progs. How those conditions got there, I don't care. -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
TheDreamTraveler replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Had a decent tiny thunderstorm around 3 am that popped up. Wasn't really expecting any rain -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Guessing Feb 2015 was the one top-ten coldest. I wish we would focus a bit more on temp maxes instead of mean because I feel like the nocturnal element does inflate the degree of impact somewhat. I don't really care if its 21 on RAD nights instead of 18....I care how warm it is during the day and when it's precipitating. Don't get me wrong....I know it's warming, I'm not trying to steal anyone's climate change, but it's warming the most on clear nights and the days/stormy nights are most relevant to us.
