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  2. wxmeddler
    The failure mode is for sure if the squall in the TN Valley right now stays together over the mountains and wipes our moisture at 11AM. And the associated low clouds hang around with it.
  3. jaxjagman
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 59 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 820 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Far Northwest Georgia Middle into Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 820 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 0.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Broken bands of severe thunderstorms will move across the Watch area this evening into the overnight. A few stronger cells embedded within the bands will potentially pose the greatest severe risk. A few tornadoes, including the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes, and severe gusts 60-80 mph are the main threats with the stronger thunderstorms.
  4. MidwestChaser
  5. Eskimo Joe
    I tell ya. D2 Moderate Risk is the kiss of death in these parts. It's a solid setup, but we fail more often than not in these parts.
  6. TSSN+
    0z hrrr says what severe event. Looks like some showers and garden variety storms lol
  7. MillvilleWx
    Keep an eye on the cap (CIN) by the afternoon. If we can get relatively good solar insolation beyond the first batch of convection, we'll be under the gun for the main line as it migrates eastward. Forcing will be excellent, so even if we don't have the most perfect conditions near the surface, we can still get hit decently.
  8. wxmeddler
    My thoughts align with Mark's (surprise surprise). Any cell that breaks out ahead of the line should be taken with caution, but the squall line damage should be fairly localized. This will NOT be a derecho situation where there is widespread 60-80 mph gusts. The 60-80 mph gusts will be localized into 1-3 mile wide swaths. Parameters I'll be watching is MLCAPE, 3CAPE, 0-2km SR Winds
  9. cyclone77
    Eyeballing about an inch here. Pavement has been just wet despite the good rates, but starting to whiten up there now as well.
  10. jvash started following 3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Day 2 MOD Risk) | Latest: 15% TOR, 60% WIND, 5% HAIL
  11. McHenrySnow
    Sleet/rain mix here atm. Hovering just above freezing.
  12. Chinook
    A lot of severe storm and tornado warnings so far, with, no preliminary tornado reports
  13. The Dude
    Agreed. Depending on what period a storm hits, my son's "weather shelter" at school, is sitting under windows and putting his arms over his head...
  14. GreyHat
    Unfortunately my office doesn't do teleworking. Will just have to see how bad things get in order for them to let people go home early.
  15. Ellinwood
    Highly dependent on the setup, but for tomorrow I'm looking for CAPE >500 (with closer to 1000 for the higher-end scenarios). I'd emphasize that this isn't a GO HIDE ALL AFTERNOON scenario so much as you don't want to be caught out and about if/when the storms roll through. The higher-end stuff will probably be pretty localized.
  16. CAPE
    You can get some awesome shots over here as you know with it being flat and wide open. I have so many cool shelf cloud shots. eta-shots like my current profile pic
  17. SEwakenosnowforu
    Why is nobody talking about a level 4 of 5 in Raleigh? Tomorrow might be insane!
  18. ravensrule
    I hope the students don’t hit your impressive stash.
  19. MJO812
    Getting windy
  20. weathermedic
    Tons of lightning all up and down the cold front traversing the country now
  21. SnowenOutThere
    Quick question for the both of you. When browsing the SPC mesoanalysis page tomorrow what should I be looking for to see if the event is on track? Just wondering what values of CAPE or other parameters I should be using as a guideline for forecasting out to my peeps if things are looking better/worse than anticipated.
  22. Mikeymac5306
    Sixers had a great run going in January. Everyone was healthy. Everyone was playing together. Things were clicking. The George got suspended. Embiid got hurt again. Now Maxey. Team is fried. Haven't had a solid bench since 2019. They can't compete with the younger run and gun teams. Embiid is such a wasted talent. So dominant when he's healthy. It's time for the Sixers to basically start over with Edgecombe. I would even consider trading Maxey if it's going to get a first round pick back. I started paying more attention to the Flyers this year than years past. The whole Carter thing set them back. Every year they are too inconsistent. Win 4, lose 4. Win 6 lose 7, win 3 lose 4. Win 5, lose 4. I think Mitchcov (sp?) has some serious upside. I like Zegaris as well.
  23. Scraff
    Living with a kindergarten teacher, so much more goes into a lot of this. I guess if you don’t have kids or know a teacher, it’s hard for most to understand the logistics of what actually goes on inside a school during these severe weather events. It’s not easy and pretty intense and stressful. Better to have kids in their own homes under their own family supervision.
  24. josh_4184
    Switching over to heavy snow/sleet mix, I'll take it over the previous forcasted ice. Took about 2 hours to plow/clear the snow/sleet mess, seen several pics north of me with burried cars/etc. i75 shutdown from the bridge to south of Grayling.
  25. NorthArlington101
    Wasn’t updated when I checked - need to just get my Twitter notifications on for their head. Think I need to go in anyway but sounds like I can maybe jet off at noon. Good deal as far as I’m concerned.
  26. AGardiner87
  27. yoda
    https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/
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