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Anything left on the ground up there? I might head up there this afternoon after I do some work.

been smelling something rank for a couple days now, getting ready to get my 38 and drizzle on

our march average is what 5, taking the early under

Man 2012 is close to knocking on our door. Too bad.

Snow missed just south last night. MLI now down -10.1" for the season.

In other words, typical Spring weather for the region...

26/13. This will be my second biggest event of the year if it pans out.

21 up in the Catoctins this morning. Whatever falls with definitely stick to everything

Yup timing is my concern with the MJO. Hitting 8 on the 20th is a bit late and everything would have to line up for snowfall. That being said it has to be monitored. If the forecast is off by a few days and its earlier we can increase snowfall chances.

Per DT:

The trough set up too far east for east St. Louis this year. If the trough was a little further west our snowfall COULD have been MUCH higher.

It could be the case - out of curiosity what drove the persistent-ao this year? Looks like we do hit 8 once again but will see if its early enough.

It is kind of funny that while we had a cold winter, the vast majority of the country saw one of the warmest winters on record. Florida, even with the cold spell, saw their 2nd warmest winter, DJF period. Looking at the developing pattern, I do think spring will come in very quickly. I do think ski season will end up ending earlier than normal throughout the region. I also think this will be one of the warmer summers. Enjoy the snow cover while you can because it will be brown and muddy after it melts.

It’s starting to look likely that this SSW/split doesn’t downwell and couple with the troposphere later this month. This is following the theme we’ve seen recently where there is a disconnect between the stratosphere and troposphere and they don’t end up coupling @donsutherland1 @bluewave

Those big Canadian highs will keep popping but if you’re south of the boundary with zonal flow — oh well. West to east the CP airmass goes without doing much more than grazing your hood with one cold night and morning.

Fruit trees will be blooming. Hopefully not wiped out by freezes down the road.

60 days to go!!! Down to one final full month to get through

Also working against March and April snow is the fact that it seems decadal. 90s snowed often in March and April. 00s hardly snowed 10s snowed often 20s barely snows Of course all this is timing. If we were hitting phase 8 now and the current reversal happened 2 weeks ago we may be looking at heavy snow in March. Looking at the CPK snowfall chart, oddly it seems that when we have an above average snowfall December March is not snowy and vice versa (for example this year, 18/19, 13/14, 14/15 etc...). Only in rare winters like 95/96 and 02/03 do we have "wall to wall" snowfall. 13/14 came close but DC "stole the snow" that year.

Nope just chasing our tails like normal. One day, we'll catch them.

Jesus what a stretch for DC on south coming up.

Here’s the 6z GFS for overnight into Tuesday.

Thanks Don. This morning we are finally seeing a movement to phase 8 where previously it was stuck in 6. Also the wind reversal is imminent. Of course, all this may effect us too late where we would need everything line up perfectly (night, high rates, arctic air, track...).

The back for this winter had to break at some point. Hopefully it doesn’t come with backdoor fronts every week.

13° for the low here as well with 4.5" at the stake. .3" yesterday, 45.4" for the season.