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  2. Weather Will
    WB EURO August seasonal maps. (Dec. thru Feb.)
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, we will learn a lot this year...the earth wants ENSO to couple with the mid latitudes because it's that coupling that represents the most proficient avenue for the redistribution of all of that heat...this unprecedented ENSO is the planet's best attempt at bridging that gap in the face of mounting anthropogenic resistance. The only entity that desires the eradication of the west warm pool more than east coast snow enthusiasts is mother nature.
  4. LakePaste25
    My thing is, if the most record breaking El Niño of my life (and potentially by a huge margin) doesn’t do the job, then the climate system has been messed up to the point where we’ve lost a major predictability factor in ENSO. It’s possible. But I hope not.
  5. Interstate
    .56 so far here in 21057
  6. bluewave
    The overall SST pattern and forecast SST pattern looks different from 1997-1998. That event had a much stronger cold pool in the WPAC into Nino 4 and 3.4 regions during the same time in 1998 than the current forecasts for early into mid 2027. Plus the La Ninas following 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 weren’t particularly strong. But we’ll see how things go since it’s still early in the process.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it's late at this point....my hedge was that it will certainly couple more than 2023, perhaps along the lines of 2015, but I still doubt whether 1997 is walking through that door.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    I'm seeing more and more of the "EF-0 tornadoes aren't bad and don't need warnings". Couldn't disagree more: EF-0 tornadoes damage houses, cars, and are a direct danger to people outside. I would make the argument that we should work to shrink the size of polygons and keep warnings to less than 30 minutes, those would narrow the impact, especially in more marginal environments.
  9. MillvilleWx
    I think the common theme, no matter the model run, is the prospects of a wetter winter than we've had in a long time. Honestly, that is a welcomed sight. Yes, we will probably have a bunch of very cold rain prospects considering the strength of the Nino and historical precedence. That said, timing a couple solid cold shots during the peak of winter (Jan-Feb) could easily get us a chance to score with some big daddy potential lurking considering the southern stream jet likely much more involved compared to what we see in a Nina. I'm still favoring a wet fall and winter with probably a low-end threat for winter in December, picking up as we move into peak climo. I also wouldn't be surprised if we get skunked in full, so tampering expectations. I'm genuinely excited just to have precipitation returning. I'd rather have precip so we can green things up for next spring and summer and not have the desolate brown we've been accustomed to for much of the past decade.
  10. LakePaste25
    I get the reluctance for some to take a “wait and see” approach to see if the NH actually couples. But at the same time, just make a call. I think it’ll couple, and couple well. Sure, we can count on a less expansive area of below normal anomalies than the 1983 Aleutian Low due to warming. It is what it is. But otherwise it’ll couple in the NH and if i’m wrong i’m wrong.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this is why I was originally reluctant to accept the super-idea...but when I did my deep dive on the polar considerations a couple of weeks ago, I really considered everything from a solar perspective and it's really the 2023-2024 strong event that was the outlier....not this event. That is the one that "didn't fit".
  12. TriPol
    What a time to be alive. And if this leads to a historic, record breaking Super La Nina, I'm even more all in.
  13. JTA66
    Light showers moving through, just enough to jack the DP again. 71F/DP 68F
  14. bluewave
    Getting a lower end super El Niño and an all-time record breaker only three years apart is a first for our modern climate era.
  15. WxUSAF
    New euro seasonal out. Waiting to see some more maps posted. All I’ve seen so far peaks the giga-Nino at +4C and has the east coast very wet.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is there anyone left debating the super Nino outcome? It already is I gave that up in March.
  17. MillvilleWx
    1.12" from this batch at my place. Rain looks to be ending according to radar with maybe some light stuff lingering. Since June 1st, looking at over 11" of rainfall (11.64") according to local PWS very close to my residence. It's not astronomical by any means, but better than a pure drought.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    You just described 75% of social media.
  19. GramaxRefugee started following August Discobs 2026
  20. GramaxRefugee
    Heavy tropical rain by the time I got to work. Typical August humidity . Plus, tidewater very high this morning.
  21. George001
    Yeah what makes it interesting is the magnitude of this event, we have had super ninos before but previous ones have peaked around +2.5C, some of the latest guidance has this one in the +3.5C to even +4C range, which is significantly stronger than even previous super ninos. We have been tracking the more aggressive end of guidance too, on the dallies Ninos 3.4 is already at around +2.5C, Nino 3 +3C, and Nino 1.2 +4C.
  22. TriPol
    We are witnessing and tracking something no other living human being has ever seen before... it's amazing.
  23. bluewave
    It’s certainly possible. These impressive WWBs keep increasing the Warm pool and push it further east. The next one coming up will also break records.
  24. TriPol
    Super El Nino gives us a super sub-tropical jet which, if merged with the pacific jet or arctic jet during a cold time in december, january or feb, can give us historic blizzards. There is going to be an incredibly active STJ Autumn/Winter. We just need a bit of cold air to go with that and BOOM. We have never ever seen anything like this before -- it's going to be very exciting to watch.
  25. mahantango#1
    Farmers' Almanac Old Weather Folklore “If the first week in August is unusually warm, the coming winter will be snowy and long.” Where did this saying come from? No single person or organization created this proverb. Like many pieces of traditional weather lore, it was passed down orally through farming communities in England before making its way to North America with early settlers. By the late 1800s, it had become so well known that it appeared in Weather Lore: A Collection of Proverbs, Sayings, and Rules Concerning the Weather, published in 1893, indicating it was already considered an “old” saying at that time. Long before satellites, radar, and computer models, farmers carefully observed the seasons, looking for patterns that might hint at what lay ahead. While modern science hasn’t found evidence that a warm first week of August reliably predicts a snowy or long winter, these sayings remain a fascinating glimpse into the wisdom and traditions of generations past.
  26. aldie 22
    0.60 and counting
  27. George001
    He needs to go outside and touch grass, in the real world if he told say his coworkers, friends family etc that there’s an incoming historic super Nino and it would lead to a mild winter in the east, most people are gonna respond to that with a “fuck yeah I’m not gonna have to shovel as much”…. I’m not happy about it because I ski, but in my experience most people prefer warm with less snow. I mean hes right that there is a historic super Nino coming, but a mind that ruminates about everyone who disagrees with you is not a mind optimized for efficiency. Let those people who think there won’t be a super Nino be confidently wrong… It’s a waste of time to try to convince some rando idiots on twitter and even care about what they think. Some people are going to be delusional and wishcast, we don’t do that on this subforum, he should grow up and just get over it and not give people he doesn’t like the time of day. They will continue to do what they do no matter what he says or what tantrum Adam throws, and Adam is going to do what he does. It is what it is.
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