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0.4” this morning. Looks wintry. 15” for the year now

BAM WX says that January -AAM/MJO 6 analogs since 1990 favor cold for most of the central and eastern US. Whether this is 100% true is questionable, but it's still interesting to note.

The models keep changing the long range outlook.

The better workable pattern is moving up closer in time. Here are the day 8 to 13 looks for the 5 day period on the 0z EPS, 6z AI EPS & 6z GEFS.

So far the northern stream clippers have worked out.

Yeah that’s virtually a lock

I was in Putnam County NY. This was NOT a 4-8" event in and around the NYC area. It was 1-5" with 6+ far north and east. It is important that we not create a false history.

ok now that's a nooseworthy gradient here..wow! I lived in Acushnet MA at the time so still bad but at least had 6"+ there

Chuck likes SE ridges

Pattern Change is a made up concept. Every day is a unique atmospheric circulation. Sure we can identify characteristics of atmospheric circulations in real time and quantify them to create numerical indexes. But these are coarse numerical "descriptions." And none of this is very meaningful when focusing on snowfall, which is a local phenomenon and highly dependent on specific regional weather features. The bigger problem is that we cannot accurately forecast these patterns beyond 10 days. So 15 day ensemble mean charts are not very useful at identifying or forecasting weather patterns. At this very moment we can have little confidence in what the "pattern" will look like beyond next week.

I get being bummed out it’s not gonna snow. We all like snow, that’s why we’re here for the most part. But chronic bitching just gets old. I don’t mind venting, no complaints there. But ad nauseam, it just sucks the fun out of the place. It’s hard being patient, but what the fuck us can folks do?

Your area missed out on the 4-8” that most of us got due to the H700-850 warm nose and fast flow pushing the dry slot in so quickly from the west.

We will have to almost completely rely on the northern stream for some sort of action because there is no evidence of a coastal storm pattern showing up yet. Maybe after the trough swings back east around the 11th. Very rare to make it to our seasonal snowfall without some sort of KU storm. But yeah from 1/6-1/10 it's looking quite warm. 50s next weekend!

We wish.

As far as I can discern, your predominant absence and that of your biting wit are missed by all about as much as anyone else who comes here. Or perhaps it's just the absence of biting.

I’ve given up. This place during winter is just no fun anymore. We have been told that people are supposed to be “allowed” to vent their feelings. That moderating it makes it worse and it’s mean to the feelings of those that want to vent. And trying to tell the whiners to stop is bad too. So now the whiners have won and fill threads like this with their constant bitching and griping every 5 hours. The ones that help with good posts now post less. The ones that make it fun now post less. 15 years of being here and it is the least enjoyable as it’s ever been. Call me when a threat gets to 3 days out. Only then is it worth the time to look

Yeah but that's smoothed out. If we sharpen the ridges then it doesn't look so hot. I'll be happy if we get more December type northern stream snows because I don't see any coastals in our future sadly Very toasty week coming up. Mostly 50s

I’m kinda expecting one to 2 inches Monday afternoon and evening and then 2 to 4 Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. I hope those aren’t unrealistic expectations. It happens that way then the snow pack is back to being pretty nice again.

Yeah its very rare that cutters trend back down towards the coast. It's just too soon and the pattern change hasn't kicked in yet. However, it could offer significant snow further inland most likely. If we're lucky, we'll get some sort of wintry precip at the start

I can't remember ever going through a winter where I had absolutely zero idea what the hell is going on because of the constant change in outlook. I just saw an 8-14 day outlook posted by Warmanista Joe Snedeker showing AN temps Jan 11-17, where just yesterday I feel like I was reading that this week's warmup was expected to last just this week. The hell happened?

And there goes the town plow for our massive 0.6” of fluff

At least there's something to watch. I'll take a rainer over nothing TBH.

The models flip flopped at 200/300 hrs again and the inevitable cliff jumping returned.

it's going to rain

Currently 55 and sunny...Heading to 62ish. Warm week ahead for us. Not going to lie, i am ok with it. Need to get outside for some exercise.