Jump to content

All Activity

This stream auto-updates

  1. Past hour
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    BTW, -AO/-NAO doesn't have to mean cold, either...and this is just the type of season where I could see that happening. If Canada is wiped out, all an NAO block will do is trap stale, maritime air underneath it. We will need time to build the source region during any jet retractions.
  3. MGorse
    It won’t be long then until the stores start rolling out the Christmas decorations.
  4. Damage In Tolland
    Tuesday /Tuesday night looks like another S coast / SE Mass special . Might even be a bit south of that axis
  5. MGorse
    Ended up with 0.29 inches late yesterday and last night. Refreshing today!
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the one that I used but your's is probably better. Walker Cycle Serves to Budget Solar Energy Focused Near the Equator by upwelling Cooler Subsurface Water and Distributing it Westward via Easterly trade Winds
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, can only work with what we have. I don't care to get into pre 1950 analogs.
  8. snowfan
    Fairly certain there is still a human element involved that can adjust the output from their use of AI/ML
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Yeah just keep in mind that double digit number of anlogs, and if you break it down to 3 types of ENSO events maybe a handful or two of examples... is just not very many statistically speaking. especially since I think there are larger scale global cycles that happen too (this current time period is not the same as a lot of 50-00 years imo).
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, yea...no doubt.....it's very clear in my break down of Hadley Cell placement per Modiki Index.
  11. SnoSki14
    Major hurricanes can still happen if conditions are right aka Andrew in 92. Models are more bullish with this now too.
  12. wncsnow
    Another day of near misses. .12
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    You can see from my correlation maps above where it's centered, very near the North Pacific High max
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I mean in general....no relevance to this season, though ...although I don't think it's as clear cut as many do for other reasons.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    IIRC, any forecast beyond D3 now is straight AI/auto generated with minimal input from forecasters. If I am wrong, someone please correct me.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Of course +QBO this Winter evens that tendency out.
  17. Hurricane Agnes
    I was wondering what happened when my GR2Analyst stopped updating yesterday. I eventually switched to KDOX. I ended up at 87 for a high after a 69 low and only picked up 0.34" total from 2 rounds yesterday . Today was like day and night with the dp drop... actually tolerable. High was 82 after a 69 low and smoke mostly cleared out. Currently mostly sunny and 80 with dp 60.
  18. RickinBaltimore
    Spain wins the World Cup giving up exactly 1 goal the entire tournament. I don't think I've ever seen a defensive showing like that before.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is this the Walker Cycle?
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is somewhat anecdotal, but the fact that 1997-1998 was extremely east-based and wasn't a severely +NAO supports your postulation.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    I just think the difference between west and east-based may be a little exaggerated because of NAO domain El Nino by itself supports warm Stratosphere, which over like hundreds of years is net -NAO I think for east and west based, although slight
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just went through the numbers on the intense composite, which is mostly east-based....it's like .67 NAO for DJFM...nothing obscene. AO is is just about neutral.
  23. Typhoon Tip
    yeah it's looked like that for awhile. The numerical teleconnectors suggest -PNA/+EPO with eastern limb -NAO from 24th + ... if folks want to get into the 2nd of the 3 typical heat periods summers ever give us around here, that looks to be a good time for #2 - albeit late. 3rd'll have to be later August but by then ...we're past solar max so we get cheated in New England as usual. LOL but anything to continue being colder relative to everywhere else while still registering warmer than normal, a leitmotif that's had one or two exceptions by has been predominating our monthly results since last summer really when I began keeping track of the sneaking butt boning
  24. NorthHillsWx
    Had one blow up overhead and drop a quick 0.14”. Wasn’t even on radar yet and it was pouring
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    There is a slight +NAO skew in east-based Nino composites, which while probably still warm (especially with -PDO), it probably isn't as warm as historical analog suggests. Of course these days neutral is 85% chance of above normal Winter.
  26. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's probably when it finally has legit PNA-correlation! A lot of people think ENSO is linked to PNA but it's actually more linked to North Pacific High
  1. Load more activity
×
×
  • Create New...