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https://x.com/therealdtox/status/2041138070888567159?s=61

WPC has 7-day total precipitation at < 0.10".

This is one of the most dry 16 day forecasts I've ever seen, especially for April.

Super El Nino coming

OH yeah, that's an excellent point. I keep having to also remind myself that we are not running around naked at 3:29 a.m. when it's supposedly a warm cloth Asian massage out there. Seriously... there's probably a pretty significant sensible/exposure bias involved - there has to be... we're human "animals". Completely enslaved to what we see, hear, smell, touch or taste in our defining the nature of our surrounding. It's also as least partial in why CC is so easy to collectively deny ... it just doesn't readily appeal. Not readily enough.

Ugh been there before. 41 was my highest gust. CTP really failed that forecast.

I noticed that too... Might be the last snow in air we see outside alpine regions until the mandatory, season ruining Halloween 3.7"

Just looked. Islip got 16”. My parents told me it was a major blizzard for that time. Looks like they were right

You have Islip? I think it was a big storm out here

time 2 torch

Beautiful day. Major October vibes with brighter sun.

I saw that; think that is not very customer service friendly. The criteria for a frost/freeze watch/ warning should not be some historic average but rather any time in the spring and fall season that a cold night hits that could catch a normal person who is not a weather nerd like us by surprise. I'm sure some people have planted tender vegetation/ flowers already so a headline heads-up makes a lot of sense.

Yeah golfing is coming before gardening for sure. Be nice if my days off aligned with some nice weather instead of 43 and windy tho.

Thanks. Do you have a link to the source for the map Chris posted?

There won't be any frost/freeze products though from LWX

These bold' are all of it. Two aspects zooming past one another in humanity's race toward the cliff. The first one is a complete and utter misconception about climate change, one that I feel pretty strongly is the fault of the origianl science PR vision. When it became clear in the atmospheric geogphysical mathematics decades ago, their campaign felt like an attack on civility traditions... function heritages ... generational ingrained ways and means. When in reality, global warming, per se, isn't the problem. Whaaaaaa ! It's not, not per se. The problem is, adaptation capacity. That's always been it, and as far as I can hear or read, very few seem to really know this. The world could warm 100 points - if all species can adapt, in time, the conversation is rendered moot. Whenever we hear these less than adequately educated self-appointed spoke persons of denial attempt to invoke the argument, "the earth has been warmer before", or "climate change is part of the Earth's history" ... we cringe. Once one understands that derivatives and partial derivatives in the integration of the whole system ( i.e., change with respect other factors ( DX/ DY) ) is what creates the nature of all and nature itself, they then know that the former talking points are just labels and scalars. Meaningless in the definition of what the problem really is. Those that continue to rely on the scalars and won't bother to get with the program, to paraphrase Brian Cox, 'you should be largely ignored ... even chastised'. Because your opinion is uncoupled from objective causality. The 2nd one is 'virtue signaling' ... At least the deniers are honest about it their feelings - gotta give 'em that. Take the entire en masse acceptance demographic... of them, a scant % are actually doing anything to really curb their ways and means. I've been raging about the 5 senses evolutionary limitation on perceived threats for years. We are a species really only just on the cusp of escaping our primitive state - for the sake of discussion... call primal state any animal that is not modifying their own genetics, sending meat wagons to the moon, and on the verge of Quantum Computing ... We are smart enough to innovate these, which means ... we are also intrinsically capable of predicting how what we do will both effect and affect. Yet, we are still slaved to only believing what these intellectual gifts are telling us until we actually see, hear, smell, touch, or taste the threat. I really think at a very fundamental, most discrete level ...that's it. You tell a person to step off the train track, 'a train is coming,' they pier up and down the rail in either direction - they must not believe it unless it is seen or heard. If they had, you never would have had to tell them in the first place. So, humanity is standing around on the track, arguing about the color shoes they are wearing to the engagement when it comes to this global warm stuff. Which is kind of funny, because what the hell else are the tracks for. Climate change doesn't really have a real-time observation-advocate that immediately appeals to the senses - this is a problem when attempting to convey any sense of urgency.

We're onto next season.

certainly could see some coatings on grassy/colder surfaces

BRRR!

It is largely a huge guess and mostly filled in using a handful of data. If it was a science paper for college using that, you'd probably fail.

It doesn't help that the increase in temps is more likely to be observed nocturnally, which doesn't help awareness/mindfullness. I'm not saying the daytime maxes aren't warming....they absolutely are, but it's just that it's realized to an even greater degree at night.

I went with +2 to +4 in my March review.

Ya i think we whiten tomorrow.. HRRR is fun

Ended up with 1.79" total. Brief downpours followed by good soaking rains.