Jump to content

All Activity

This stream auto-updates

  1. Past hour
  2. EasternLI
    Looking at the SST changes vs last year at this time would give you the impression this is an entire Pacific ocean event. Pretty wild. Which is interesting too because the entire ocean is really making all of the right moves towards a +IPO. Or interdecadal pacific oscillation. Which would include a longer term +PDO. The south pacific especially, but the NH is trying too apparently. Not much reason to think that wouldn't continue given everything either. Going to be a really impressive event to watch. Already is. Can we flip the longer term pacific too? It's been negative for quite some time. I envision that would take a monster event to set in motion. Or at least look like one. I could be wrong of course, but it so happens we have one... Fascinating. Impact of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific https://www.nature.com/articles/srep12358
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, basically 1982-1983. 2005 was a top 3 season in SNE....I don't expect that.
  4. Stormlover74
    Especially with no family history and being in such good overall health
  5. raindancewx
    The Midwest Regional Climate Center snow maps for the years I picked. You can see generally the Northern Plains and Ozarks sort of get screwed for snow. Northwest does OK, especially if the PDO stays negative into Fall. Northeast does OK. Southeast & Southwest are generally furthest above means for snow. I can't get the maps to work for 2004-2005 and 1963-64. This is my attempt at drawing the consolidated snow maps. I put in a few example cities. So Richmond (~50%) is further above average than Philadelphia (~20%) and Philadelphia is further above average than Boston, which is a hair below (5-10%). Detroit and Chicago are around 20% below average. Topeka is right on the edge of the just below average/just above average zone (since it is low elevation, and blue western areas will be highly elevation dependent in a warm pattern for snow). Reno was something like 40% above average, Albuquerque around 20%. I'm using 1961-2020 as snow baseline. Billings is 3,000+ feet above sea level and around 15% below average. Those higher areas in the orange areas won't do too poorly, its the lower spots that get hosed. I may change my main analogs for temps, but I don't expect to change the snow maps. I'm pretty comfortable with this group for where moisture will be.
  6. MANDA
    Update on John Homenuk ("earthlight" from his days on these boards) Doing better but sounds like he had an awfully close call. Scary stuff. Best to him. https://people.com/healthy-36-year-old-reveals-warning-signs-before-suffering-widowmaker-heart-attack-exclusive-12018433?taid=6a5558621fb3140001d6dcb4&utm_campaign=peoplemagazine&utm_content=new&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com
  7. donsutherland1
    Gorgeous day at Central Park.
  8. frd
    Exactly, that statement echoes what Mount Holly has in the latest AFD. The boundary may also stall in the Central and Northern regions leading to flash flooding.
  9. dendrite
    Some of these maps have my blood pressure rising. Trying to remain calm.
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    The real difference is that 2009 was near record cold throughout in June and July. This year has had wild temperature swings (since March). The first half of June was warm. The second half not so much. The first half of July was warm. The second half of July is going to be cold.
  11. Blizzard of 93
    Monthly departure for temperature at MDT is now down to just +1.3 through yesterday.
  12. olafminesaw
    Third longest streak in July of below 75 temp
  13. Blizzard of 93
    MDT has been below normal or normal for temperature departures for the last 9 consecutive days.
  14. NorthHillsWx
    Weird not having any rain to report today
  15. kdxken
    Southwest Connecticut needs the rain.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm sure below average, but LES belts are a wild card. 1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1997-1998, 2015-2016.
  17. kdxken
    Friend stopped by not an hour ago has a place in Big sky. He left for just that reason. Who knew SNE is the temperate part of the country?
  18. BuffaloWeather
    Whats the average snowfall for Super El Nino years look like in the northeast/Great lakes? The temps are insane here in Buffalo.
  19. SchaumburgStormer
    110’ of water loss over a basin that size is fucking insane.
  20. WestBabylonWeather
    Another top ten
  21. weatherwiz
    the heat will always find you
  22. weatherwiz
    Gotta be extremely careful here just rip and reading total QPF maps. It might be difficult to get widespread amounts as modeled. The axis of highest totals is going to be confined to where the warm front is located and this will be a narrow axis. Also potential for this to close off to our west which would introduce dry slot concerns. Going to be a quite a bit of convection though so there are going to be some areas that probably get smoked, but we may see some drastic differences in precip. amounts across the region when all said and done. There should be some concern though for some significant flash flooding but how widespread?
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see a situation like 2005, 2015 and 2016 where we flip with a big storm the last week of January, but it would be a mild month in the mean.
  24. SnoSki14
    If you have a strong closed low with PWATs above 2" in late July then someone's gonna see a ton of rain. Given the rains we've had this month I see a flood risk upgrade to moderate for Tuesday
  25. Today
  26. frd
    WPC's afternoon update below has increased totals again for the Mid Atlantic region. Here is a snippet from the AFD Mount Holly - PWats will rise to near 2" by the end of the day. Some models suggest we could have a stalled or slow moving frontal boundary across the central or northern portion of the forecast area, which could act as a focusing mechanism for heavy rainfall. Heavy rain leading to flash flooding could end up being a bigger concern and greater impact than the severe thunderstorm threat.
  27. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think it was January 2019: 2019-01-12 37 30 33.5 -3.8 31 0 0.13 1.9 0 2019-01-13 32 29 30.5 -6.7 34 0 0.71 8.3 4 2019-01-14 37 27 32.0 -5.2 33 0 T 0.1 10
  1. Load more activity
×
×
  • Create New...