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Canadian might be good for weekend.

Who in their right mind wants rain?

Ehhhh, I’m losing the warm and fuzzies for next week.

Records: Highs: EWR: 65 (1946) NYC: 63 (1946) LGA: 60 (20000) JFK: 62 (1990) Lows: EWR: 0 (2016) NYC: -1 (2016) LGA: 1 (2016) JFK: 1 (2016) Historical: 1798: The Norfolk Herald on Feb. 17 and the New York Spectator on March 3 reported snow in Norfolk "in many places up to six feet deep," the greatest snowfall ever experienced. Some accounts claim that 40 inches of snow fell in one night in Norfolk and along the coast, but no snow fell 25 miles inland. Over northeast North Carolina, 16 inches of snow was reported. Wind blowing from the north to northwest off the Chesapeake Bay may have enhanced the snowfall in the Norfolk area, much like the winds blowing across Lake Erie produce "lake effect snow" in New York. (Ref. Virginia Weather History) 1895: The most significant snowfall in the history of Houston, Texas, occurred on the 14th and 15th. The Houston area saw 20 inches of snow. 1895: One of the Deep South's greatest snowstorms took place with the following reported snow totals: Rayne, LA: 24 inches, Glaveston, TX: 15 inches and 8.2 inches at New Orleans, LA. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1899 - A great blizzard struck the eastern U.S. Washington D.C. received 20.5 inches of snow to bring their total snow depth to nearly three feet. The storm produced 36 inches of snow at Cape May NJ. (David Ludlum) 1899: A great blizzard ended along the eastern United States giving Washington DC 20.5 inches of snow to bring their total snow depth to nearly three feet and ended here late in the evening of the 14th. The storm produced 36 inches of snow at Cape May NJ. (Ref. Virginia Weather History) (David Ludlum) The blizzard ended on Valentine's Day, dropping 16.3 inches of snow in Richmond and giving Washington, DC a snow depth of 34 inches. The city recorded its greatest monthly total with 35.2 inches and its greatest seasonal snowfall total with 54.4 inches. For the month, Harrisonburg recorded 47 inches, Winchester 39 inches and Fredericksburg 35 inches. Warrenton recorded the state monthly snowfall record with 54 inches. (Ref. Virginia Weather History) 1940 - A "Saint Valentine's Day Blizzard" hit the northeastern U.S. Up to a foot and a half of snow blanketed southern New England, and whole gales accompanied the heavy snow stranding many in downtown Boston. (David Ludlum) 1940: A St. Valentine's Day Blizzard blankets New England with up to 18 inches of snow. Gale force winds associated with the storm strand many in downtown Boston. 1947: The Weather Bureau commissioned its first weather radar at Washington, DC. The radar network would only grow slowly over the next few years, but eventually would become the backbone of the National Weather Service's warning system. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1949: Late afternoon heavy snows began on Valentine's Day in Boise, ID and by 5:00 am the following morning, 14 new inches of snow had fallen. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1978: A winter storm brought freezing precipitation and high winds to eastern Colorado, knocking out power to thousands of people, some for more than a week. The ice accumulated to a thickness of five inches in some locations. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - A powerful storm spawned severe thunderstorms in Texas and Oklahoma, and produced heavy snow in the Rocky Mountain Region. Snowfall totals in Colorado ranged up to 27 inches at Telluride. Straight line winds gusting to 104 mph howled through Guadalupe Pass in West Texas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Strong northerly winds ushered arctic air into the north central U.S. Snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in Minnesota and the Dakotas. Winds gusted to 56 mph at Rapid City SD, and reached 65 mph at Cody WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - While "Valentine's Day" was a soggy one in the Ohio Valley and the Tennessee Valley, unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Seventeen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 70s and 80s. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Valentine's Day was a snowy one for many parts of the western and central U.S. Five to ten inches of snow fell across Iowa, and 6 to 12 inches of snow blanketed northern Illinois, and strong northeasterly winds accompanied the heavy snow. Air traffic came to a halt during the evening at O'Hare Airport in Chicago, where 9.7 inches of snow was reported. More than 250 traffic accidents were reported around Des Moines IA during the evening rush hour. An icestorm glazed east central sections of Illinois, causing twelve million dollars damage in Champaign County alone. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2004 - Dallas receives 3 inches of snow, wreaking havoc with Valentine's Day flower deliveries. The greatest snowfall since 1978 caused numerous traffic accidents, power outages and flight cancellations at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport. 2007: The Valentine's Day Storm was a massive winter storm that affected most of the eastern half of North America, starting on February 12, 2007 and peaking on Valentine's Day, February 14. The storm produced heavy snowfalls across the midwestern United States from Nebraska to Ohio and produced similar conditions across parts of the northeastern United States. Significant sleet and freezing rain fell across the southern Ohio Valley and affected portions of the east coast of the United States, including the cities of Boston, Baltimore, Washington, DC., New York City and Philadelphia.(Ref. Wikipedia.org (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_2007_North_America_Winter_Storm) Ref. (NWS Ranking for Storms between 1956 and 2011) This is the 14th Worst Snowstorm

Yes it is very unusual for them. My friend on Long Island has always told me about 2 foot storms that melt in 5 days. That sounds insane to me. That would be on the ground all winter. So for them to sustain a solid pack from a ~1 foot storm (Mid-Atlantic well less than that) for weeks is very impressive for them.

We’ll see how much today’s torch leaves us by tomorrow.

What a crap solution.

Should have a thread for this .

Another vote from the WRF-ARW2 as well, fwiw:

I was gung-ho on tomorrow 10 days ago. Mostly about there being a storm and not necessarily snow. I'm a tad less enthused today. My issue is that we are going to need rates...like at least moderate if not heavy to get things going. Otherwise we're looking at rain followed by essentially white rain. I've seen this scenario play out a lot over the years. We can do this but we better get into good precip...

Disagree. This winter's snowpack has been far above climo in SE MI and if the pattern was shifted a bit west that could've easily been Chicago. Of course nothing compares to the record winter of 2013-14, just 12 years ago (the planet was warming then as well). Always all about the pattern. If anything Chicago's problem this winter was too much CAD. As for next winter, certainly not worried about that yet lol. With 2 colder than normal winters in a row and an el nino on deck, I wouldn't bet against a milder winter, but we've learned time and time again in recent years that enso is just one piece of the puzzle. Usually weak/mod ninos are workable. The only true nightmare scenario is if we are in mid-Fall and a strong nino is imminent.

Headed to Jacksonville in the morning to visit,not sure ill make it there in time for severe.Wife has to do something in the morning before we can leave Next week if we can get moisture we could possibly get some strong storms towards the end of the work week,much depends on where the subtropical ridge is at

This was much better to me because that storm was a huge disaster back in the day. That was a complete whiff for NW Wake. This storm made up for it late with the banding were I was. .

Stein on both events.

Snow-cover should aid in surface temps. Not by much but anything will help.

Is there a way to infer/determine ratios from soundings? Trying to “self” teach reading these info-laden graphs gotta imagine itll be pretty pasty stuff if it does snow

Id take day after day after day of tundra rather than 95/75. I leave Newport in the heat of the summer for milder weather in northern Spain, and Newport is about as mild as it gets.

Would likely start as a light rain sometime during the mid afternoon and transition to a steady snow during the evening hours.

Definitely a bit intriguing overnight and some of the 12z guidance so far...certainly enough to put the south coast in game for a few inches potentially

Many folk here aren't winter people...they only tolerate winter because of the potential for snow...outside of that they'd prefer it to be 95/75...

Gefs further south

My baby loves the winter

Hope so. Just want that memorable one.

Woke up to a dusting this morning. Wasn't expecting it. Couldn't stop dog from finding his new delicacy... Frozen rabbit pellets lol

What’s the timing on this?