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The GFS is waffling on a strong cold front mid-month. Sometimes it has it, others it doesn't. 0z had frost in the area by the 16th. 12z is torchy.

27.3F for a low here... not quite the coldest we've had, but close

This observation from the Phoenix NWS matches the recent study as to how quickly people normalize extreme weather. It’s one of the reasons that climate change is pretty far down on the list of priorities for many. Phoenix is still one of the fastest growing metro areas in the country. https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/how-quickly-we-normalize-extreme-weather The study, published Feb. 25 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, indicates that people have short memories when it comes to what they consider “normal” weather. On average, people base their idea of normal weather on what has happened in just the past two to eight years. This disconnect with the historical climate record may obscure the public’s perception of climate change. “There’s a risk that we’ll quickly normalize conditions we don’t want to normalize,” said lead author Frances C. Moore, an assistant professor in the UC Davis Department of Environmental Science and Policy. “We are experiencing conditions that are historically extreme, but they might not feel particularly unusual if we tend to forget what happened more than about five years ago.

Yuck. @Holston_River_Rambler, the big red ball over the Aleutians is there for three straight months. Let's hope the CANSIPS is wrong. Next month is the the one with the most skill. I don't like this at all. November looked good. October isn't a bad look, but I think it stays warm. @nrgjeff, if we are talking talking basketball....this is the equivalent of Kansas making the NIT, right?

70 degrees here and not a cloud in the sky. Great way to start October. I'm leaving right now for bow hunting for the first time this season. Perfect weather for it.

let it snow (in canada)

I thought for sure we were going to miss extended summer this year. Nope. October could well be VERY warm. That does likely set us up for a very sharp flip come November if past Nina years are any clue.

We would take this onshore flow in December/January Recording 2025-10-01 134409.mp4

Yes, this is what I mean. Keep the dry pattern going through Winter and come Spring we will be significantly below normal. Long ways to go but pattern has been rather persistent. If we get lots of suppression from high pressure to our north as we move through Fall and Winter it will keep the dry pattern going. Very possible.

And you're a Bengals fan. How in the hell are you not an alcoholic?

Looks like it was a pretty wet month overall for much of AZ, CA, and NV. Second wettest September for Phoenix since 1984, and I'm sure even more impressive some other places.

So what's the new climate change strategy? Let er rip? Good grief... we deserve every adverse scenario we get going forward. We sold our souls and mailed in a nice planet for likes, shares, followers, and subscribers.

DEN finished September almost exactly normal, with a -.1 departure. Precip was also above normal for the second month in a row, though nowhere as anomalous as August.

The ICON and UKMET were absolutely stellar in that neither model had even one run hitting the coast or even stalling at the coast. None ever got closer than 100 miles from the US. I made sure to post every UKMET with a TC as well as any Icon that nobody else posted. All of the UKMET runs 12Z of 9/23 through 0Z 9/28 run (except 0Z of 9/24, which had no TC) in textual form can be seen ITT. The Icons going back to 12Z on 9/24 are still on Tropical Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ ICON: The only Icon that I don’t know with 100% certainty is the 18Z of 9/24 because it goes out only 120 and is then moving very slowly NW toward C FL at ~79.0W (see 1st quoted post above). But even it is slowing down 100 miles offshore FL, the closest of any ICON to the US, and quite possibly about to make the hook OTS. UKMET: The other 4 quotes are of the furthest west UK runs. The two 9/25 runs move to 78.3W. Then the 9/26 12Z and 9/27 0Z move to 78.5W, the furthest W runs. All others’ furthest W were 77.1-77.4W. The closest to the US of any UKMET run was 115 miles E of Ft. Lauderdale (0Z 9/25 run). Furthest W of each UKMET run: 9/23 12Z: 77.1W 9/24 0Z: no TC 9/24 12Z: 77.2W 9/25 0Z/12Z: 78.3W 9/26 0Z: 77.3W 9/26 12Z and 9/27 0Z: 78.5W 9/27 12Z: 77.3W 9/28 0Z: 77.4W Whereas the UK’s record on the tracks was the best of all models (even better than the Icon), it was the latest on first having it as an actual TC (12Z 9/23) and also it didn’t have it on the 0Z 9/24. So, it was too genesis shy very early on, which is not uncommon with it. That’s why I pay extra attention when the UKMET first has a TC. Aside: The UKMET (#1) and ICON (#2) were also by far the best with Ian (‘22). ———— Honorable mention for JMA, which had only one run hit the US (NC). But like the UKMET, it was a bit shy early on in showing a TC. Despite its pretty poor record on the track along with Euro and CMC, an honorable mention is due for the GFS for showing Imelda as far back as one 9/19 run, way earlier than any other model, even though it lost it for a couple of days after that run. * Imelda’s actual furthest W was 77.3W. @WxWatcher007

things are going to definitely get more active starting next week. enjoy the summer temps while you can

the last 2/3rds of the month were much above average, led to a +3.0 departure for the month. 26th warmest September on record

That is a hell of find. I have a large stash of historical articles related to climate change. Anyway somehow Gorrell's contribution above from 1911 was missing from my archive. Gorrell references LeConte 1903 work here which was also missing from my archive. Anyway, here are other LeConte quotes. "But a sufficient cause of secular changes of temperature, affecting the whole earth alike, is found in the variation in amount of the carbon dioxide of the atmosphere." "On account of its heat-absorbing properties the CO₂ is vastly the most important element affecting climate. It now forms only about 1/3000 part of the atmosphere. With its thermal potency it will be seen that comparatively slight variation in amount would produce great climatic effects. Physicists have long recognized the fact. It is believed that doubling the present small amount of CO₂ would produce mild climate to the poles, and that halving the present amount would bring on another glacial period." "The several factors in our present climate-atmospheric, astronomic, geographic, and geologic-are so delicately balanced that any slight change might produce great effects. Of these factors, the amount of carbon dioxide (and depending on it the amount of water vapor) is doubtless the most influential." The point...this isn't some fringe or politically motivated scientific theory. It was mainstream in the early 1900's and even late 1800's and builds upon scientific discovery's that date back to at least to the 1600s. BTW...my archive of historical articles related to climate change is fairly extensive. If anyone is interested private message me and I'll see what I can do to get you these publications. I've even included the works of Marriott from 1681 who, to the best of my knowledge, was the first to hypothesize the "heat trapping" effect. I also have de Saussure who demonstrated how the Sun's heat could be trapped in 1796 with his heliothermometer.

Reservoirs here in NJ are already getting very very low.

This dryness up here this summer with only 4.99” and the record heat was similar to the 2022 and 1999 back on Long Island. Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2000 3.02 65 2 1966 4.15 0 3 2022 4.29 0 4 2017 4.76 3 5 2025 4.99 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1999 4.00 63 2 2010 4.15 0 3 2022 4.68 1 4 2016 6.68 2 5 2005 6.92 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1966 3.89 0 2 2022 5.20 0 3 1999 5.56 0 4 1965 5.68 0 5 1993 5.71 0

68 now. Pleasant

Long range snow totals for GFS and Euro showing a lot of Canada getting snow the next 2 weeks. Gfs is way more excited about it

Really not all that chilly today. Full sun rely keeps things from being cool

Highest Percentage of Days with 10" or More Snowfall): 1869-2024: February 4-10: 0.8% of days 1991-2020: January 20-26: 1.4% of days

Any frostbite?