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Guys I’m going to be really negative this week so I apologize in advance. Partly because im in ill believe it when I see it on the ground mode, but I’m also going to generate good mojo by telling Mother Nature she’s not capable of pulling it off.

Cold 850s, night time, good snow growth, blossoming precip leaf.

Nam is about .3 to .4” from BOS to the canal. Definitely cut back.

The 1045 over Minnesota is a classic winter storm set up here and the Euro reflects that. Our biggest winter storms very often have extreme cold outbreaks in Minnesota.

Agree for sure. The only thing that gives me pause is this past week looked great...and it went poof quickly. I would say I am cautiously optimistic for a winter storm....but ice is no bueno IMBY. And maybe these extra flights are helping some...IDK.

Definitely rain snow mix in Raleigh now

I measured a bit under 4 here in Manchester. Wasn't expecting more than a coating to an inch as late as the first flakes. Manchester was the extreme northern edge of the decent snows. I live approximately 3 miles from PA line and it tapered to around 2 inches there so I would concur that Hanover was 1-2 at best. Oddly though was Westminster that had a good 6 inches. Must have maxed out on the northern band.

Just the digital snow for now. It will change . But it sure is nice! .

Yeah you can see it coming together nicely now on radar down there. Should be snowing nicely all of SNE by 5:00

Snow has definitely picked back up in the last half hour or so. Temp has dropped too....32 down from 34.

Yep snowing in Cvill

Tim Wakefield (RIP) knuckler that doesn't knuckle

With the notable exception of the GDPS para(I called it the GEM para...same), most deterministic runs of this event have precip falling into temps which range from the low teens to lower 20s. The GEM para has temps in E TN only in the mid 30s, even w/ downlsope/warm nose/ etc. The 12z EPS manages to get cold air in place prior to the event. The 12z GEFS has a bit of a warm nose, but as soon as precip starts...the front crashes into the STJ. The GEPS is somewhere in between. Ensemble temps are mid20s to mid30s. The key will be getting a big high over the top(1040s are good) which feeds the north side of any potential STJ pulse.

Yeah---way to easy.

lol i posted about the upcoming potential on twitter about an hour ago and 30 minutes ago that guy followed me

This was an absolutely confidence boost in taking AI more seriously in the medium range. Now, we can't assume that AI is just going to nail the medium range but the value this could provide is huge. Inside of 48 hours we just continue relying on the mesos and.

just changed over to snow in durham

Thru Next Sunday at 7 PM

That was a breaking ball with no movement.

Honestly i'd be fine with 2-3 tonight on top of what we have. A bigger storm would be nice but with a cold week ahead a grassy snowpack of 5 inches or so is nice.

I have a summary for that event from Mount Holly that has all the snowfall reports. Cut off was somewhere in southern PA. Phil International Airport had 2.1".

It’s so funny how much I try to temper my own expectations but so hard not to get hopeful/excited

Hard to remember these days, I was 20.. God that's sad [emoji1787] But what I do remember is the cold powder nature of the snow, you could clear it with a broom Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

We’ve seen it before. In fact, we saw it last year. This time though there will be a lot more cold air around to work with

Good luck